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BritTim

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Everything posted by BritTim

  1. It is valid to bring that up as some vaccines do interfere with tests designed to identify the disease they protect against. Fortunately, in the case of the Covid-19 vaccines, this does not seem to be a problem. While not sure, I think the reason is that Covid-19 tests that look for active infection are not based on blood samples. The dead viral fragments from some Covid vaccines that trigger the immune response do not cause bits of virus to hang around where they can eventually be picked up in nasal or throat swabs. If anyone else knows of an alternative explanation, I would be interested in being educated. Perhaps, the continued presence of dead viral fragments post recovery from an active Covid infection actually help to keep the immune response high. On the other hand, it is also possible it could be one of the triggering mechanisms for long haul Covid. There is no much we can hypothesise about, and so much we still really do not know.
  2. There is no definite answer to that. Mostly, after two or three weeks, a PCR test will give a negative result. However, fragments of dead virus can be present that can flake off and result in a positive test months later in some cases. This is more likely to happen if you have inflammation from another unrelated infection of something else.
  3. If doing something that involves serious exertion, any mask will become uncomfortable. Masks can also be a problem if you have certain kinds of serious health conditions. However, if just sitting quietly in a seat, and in normal health, there is no reason why a mask needs to be uncomfortable. A mask should definitely be less of an issue than earphones (which I will often use for an entire long flight) or glasses.
  4. The full agent fee for an extension based on Thai child is pretty expensive. Bear in mind that, in you can provide collateral, a three month loan of 400,000 baht is likely to end up being cheaper. EDIT: If the shortage of funds is a temporary issue, also bear in mind the alternative of a visa run for a Non O visa which, in combination with a 60-day extension, will give you a stay of around five months before you need the financial proof for a one-year extension.
  5. While expensive, if the right equipment is available, it is possible to get the results of a PCR test in less than two hours.
  6. I think we need to understand the purported objective of pre departure tests, and the degree to which those objectives are met. It is true that most people who test positive on PCR tests taken two days before departure will also test positive on arrival. However, that does not mean pre departure tests are preventing many infections in those travelling. We know that many people who have negative PCR tests pre departure test positive on arrival (currently one in every 200 arrivals, but a much higher proportion during some of the Omicron peaks in countries like the UK). Those individuals will usually be infectious while travelling. We are also pretty sure that the majority of those who are positive on pre departure tests are not infectious while travelling. Those who test negative may be more likely to infect others than those who test positive pre departure. It is prudent, I think, for people to test themselves pre departure, as close as possible to their arrival at the airport. This is for their own protection against the consequences of a positive test on arrival. However, the pre departure tests (especially PCR tests done days in advance) do little to protect against people being infected in transit. I am also fairly sure that contracting Covid-19 will not be immediately fatal in my case (as you, I am fully vaccinated and boosted). However, the full risks are greater now than they were during the initial outbreak in early 2020. You are much more likely to be infected and, while immediate serious illness is not probable, there appears to be somewhere between a 15% and 30% chance of dangerous after effects. These fall into two main categories. One is life span shortening organ damage. Did you know that about one in eight people hospitalised with Covid, who subsequently recover and are released from hospital are dead within a year? People who are not hospitalised still often suffer damage to heart, lung, liver, and/or other organs. The other main category, and even worse, is long haul Covid (otherwise known as PACS: post acute Covid syndrome). By some estimates this interferes with normal activities in about a third of those infected for a year or more. The impact is most often fairly minor, but many are affected so badly that they cannot work and suffer severe fatigue alongside many other serious symptoms. There are currently no effective treatments for PACS. I am in my seventies, and long Covid might well mean the end of a good quality of life. At the current time, I am fanatical about avoiding exposure to Covid-19.
  7. Using Bangkok immigration is usually more expensive than out of province extensions, certainly for retirement extensions. However, marriage extensions are going to be complicated and expensive anyway. It might be that the senior officials in Bangkok have good relationships with division headquarters to facilitate the process. There will only be a few Bangkok agents willing to help, and you may just need to accept them doing it the way they want. Anyway, a Bangkok agent using Bangkok Immigration should hopefully limit the number of hands the passport needs to pass through, reducing the chance of the passport going astray.
  8. You are entitled to your opinion. Have you noticed that countries are beginning to reduce the time you must quarantine after a positive test to five days? There is a reason for this. Your infectious period is usually just before you become positive on a test and for about five days after. If you rarely have Covid tests, but take one (testing positive) two days before boarding a flight, in the majority of cases, you have probably had Covid (maybe even already recovered) for some time, and are no longer infectious. Even if infectious at the time of the test, you will often be over the infectious stage when boarding the aircraft. Meanwhile, you may have just become infected at the time of a negative test two days earlier, meaning that you are usually entering the most infectious period on arrival at the airport.. There is a breathalyser type test for Covid-19 that is about as effective as the best ATKs and gives results in two minutes. Testing each person costs around US$3.00. There is a significant up front capital cost for the equipment, and people operating the machines need training. However, I consider it totally stupid that airports do not install these machines, using them to test everyone entering the terminal.
  9. The only possible exception is a medical extension. If he happened to be positive on a Covid-19 test (taken professionally, not a self test) then he could be declared unable to leave because of it. He would still need to leave as soon as medical opinion dictated that he was fit to travel, but would give him a few more days. Of course, if planning to infect yourself with Covid-19 you need a bit more forward planning than hoping for something to turn up in the next 12 hours.
  10. Looking at all your posts in this thread, you appear to have had your permission to stay cancelled, and been ordered out of the country no later than tomorrow (Friday). Is there something I have misinterpreted? Do you think there will suddenly be an announcement to the effect that orders to leave Thailand have all been rescinded?
  11. If it shows positive, do not travel. If you have the right travel insurance, you should be covered for the cancellation due to sudden illness. It is not ideal, but what is better? Do you prefer to find out you are positive on arrival in Bangkok? If so, do not waste time on a test at all.
  12. I understand your point of view, and it is valid. I was just answering the question. There can, sometimes, be legitimate reasons why people do not want to be any longer than necessary away from their families.
  13. Morning flights are less likely to be delayed than flights later in the day, and I am someone who is willing to accept some risk. I would probably be willing to assume the Thai Smile flight would give me enough time if I am well organised. You need to allow for applying for the visa-on-arrival (if not using e-visa), getting through immigration, waiting for a taxi, getting a couple of photocopies, and travel time. On average, I would say it would take around 90 minutes, and you would be unlucky to take over two hours. If risk averse, assume the extra day.
  14. At one time, agents could speed up the process, but this had become less true by 2019. There is no evidence that I have seen, post Covid, where agents can shorten the time taken, but I have no first hand knowledge on the matter.
  15. I have a question for you. If you accidentally write the wrong address on your application form, does this invalidate the extension the official gives you? If you deliberately write the wrong address, does this make the stamp illegal? If an accidental error on the application form would not leave you on overstay, liable to be deported and banned from re-entry to Thailand, but a deliberate error would, how easy would you say it is to prove the difference (other than through extensive investigation). The TM-30 system will show you as present in the province at the time of the application. The official has plausible deniability on this aspect when he stamps your passport. Is the whole procedure shady? Certainly. Does it involve corruption? Yes, but most likely without breaking any laws punishable by anything worse than small fines (and the agent is the one risking that). Is the stamp illegal? No, it is a valid stamp made by the 'competent' official according to regulations. Thailand is a corrupt country. As in most third world countries, those in power want it that way.
  16. I am pretty sure the fine was not for overstay. Most likely, you were fined for a failure to submit your last required 90-day report.
  17. The stamp is legal. Whether the whole process is legal is more questionable. You paying the agent to deal with the officials on your behalf breaks no laws, even if you are aware that the agent is using dubious methods to get your extension. The agent is misrepresenting your permanent address in the application, but it is difficult to prove, and it is the agent who is submitting the application, not you. The official actually stamping your passport is probably breaching no laws if he is careful to ensure that financial inducements are not going to him directly. Under current Thai anti corruption legislation, it is more a question of morality than legality. You may be unwilling to support a corrupt system, but that is different from you doing something illegal in using an agent to facilitate a visa/extension. If you refrain from participating on moral grounds, I respect your ethics in refusing to encourage a system that rewards shady practices.
  18. Most of my countrymen would feel a burning sense of injustice but, speaking for myself, I would not care if the migrant was otherwise law abiding. Economic migrants from poor countries to wealthy ones are overwhelmingly a self selecting group of energetic, ambitious individuals. Study after study shows that they bring benefits to their destination countries that far outweigh the negatives. Countries that experience wave after wave of immigration consistently outperform countries that stagnate.
  19. The use of fake stamps is definitely illegal, but also very uncommon. Almost no agents do that. It is possible for them to make short term profits by doing so, but they then need to disappear before any of those with fake stamps attend immigration or try to leave the country. A bigger risk is agents who simply abscond after taking your money. That is why it is much riskier to use an agent without an established office.
  20. Are you really calculating? In general humans are terrible at evaluating risk. Emotion overrides logic. As far as the risk of travelling to Sothern Thailand is concerned, the main risks are the same as travelling elsewhere in Thailand (actually a little less than some other areas). In particular, traffic accidents kill far more people than bombs, even in the worst affected insurgency areas. Based on current data, I would have no qualms about travelling through Southern Thailand. I would choose the train, when possible, in preference to road travel (though I would risk the latter if necessary). I would avoid crowds in certain areas, not because the risk of bombs is high, but because it is possible, and it makes sense to mitigate the risk.
  21. There are many (some believe deliberate) loopholes in Thailand's anti corruption legislation. Most important, there is no law that criminalises the provision of gifts to close family members of officials, even if it is clear that those gifts were inducements to the official to abuse his discretion to grant some kind of favour. So, in answer to your question, if the official is careful, I do not think the official is receiving money from the agent. However, the agent may well be very generous to the official's wife, and (naturally) the official's wife will tend to help her husband out with expenses when necessary. As far as you, yourself, are concerned if you decide to use an agent, there is another huge loophole. An agent directly bribing an official to abuse his discretion is certainly illegal. However, when you pay a middleman to deal with the official on your behalf, there is no law criminalising your doing so. I should stress that the above is a simplification of the Byzantine anti corruption legislation in Thailand. If there is a genuine desire to prosecute corrupt practices, there are certainly ways this can be achieved (often via the rules around officials being "unusually rich"). However, it is difficult, and rarely attempted.
  22. Many years ago, when you could cross the borders on the train, I actually took the train all the way from Singapore to Bangkok. I did this partly because I wanted to take a lot of stuff with me that, with baggage allowances of the time, would have cost a fortune if I went by air. However, at that time, it was a wonderful trip, with an excellent dining car open for almost the whole two-day trip. I think KTMB (the Malaysian rail operator) would like to run trains of the same standard today, but the State Railway of Thailand has been steadily degrading its own services for many years. The Bangkok to Hat Yai service is still just about worth taking, but it really makes no sense to try to do the complete route to Singapore now Trying to get down to Padang Besar, get across the border (which sometimes means trekking over to the road crossing (when immigration at the station is closed) and waiting for a connection up to Butterworth is just not worth it.
  23. Like most trains from Bangkok, those to Hat Yai now depart from Bang Sue Junction. I believe this page is up to date: https://www.rome2rio.com/map/Bangkok/Hat-Yai#r/Train/s/0
  24. It is possible for a PCR test to go positive as early as 24 hours after initial infection, though three to five days is most common. Regardless, a negative test three or four days before your on arrival test means that there is a period of time before arrival when you could go from negative to positive, including being infected at the time of your pre departure test, but not yet replicating the virus to a detectable level. You can dramatically reduce your risk of that happening by avoiding all contact with others for a week prior to your departure, but almost no one will do that. In my view, the most practical pre departure test to use is a rapid antigen test taken just before leaving home for the airport. Although such tests are less sensitive than PCR, in practice, viral replication at the time of an initial positive on PCR is so rapid that the rapid antigen test will be positive only a few hours later.
  25. For Cambodia, purchasing insurance is encouraged. This is not the same as required, and is not checked.
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