BritTim

6 hours ago, Caldera said:

All that talk about virus elimination is just wishful thinking. It might work for a remote island under ideal lab conditions, it won't work for a country such a Thailand that has millions of migrant workers and notoriously porous borders. There will be outbreaks in Thailand again and they will need to be dealt with. Eventually that will sink in.

 

I don't think travel bubbles will work. They're complicated to negotiate and situations change quickly.

So far, countries like Vietnam (and probably Thailand) have successfully implemented a virus elimination strategy. Whether future outbreaks (which I agree are likely) can be controlled via a test, trace, isolate strategy, we will need to wait and see.

I agree that negotiation of travel bubbles is harder than people think. It is critical that all countries within the bubble have common border control procedures with respect to countries outside the bubble, and a credible infrastructure for dealing with outbreaks. However, there are strong economic incentives for getting bubbles in place. If a country within the bubble has a sudden major outbreak, that country will need to be removed from the bubble until the outbreak is brought under control. For nearby countries, this can be done within 24 hours. By October, I expect some travel bubbles to be in place, possibly including Thailand.

1 hour ago, CANSIAM said:

Test me on arrival ill pay for it ......

A negative test is no guarantee that you are not infected. In fact, while tests have merit, the 14-day quarantine is the most important protection (albeit not 100%) against reintroduction of the virus into the community.

I think August is probably too early to expect any travel bubbles. Once they exist, I would expect visas from those countries to be similar to their status before the pandemic. All guesswork, obviously.

5 hours ago, TerraplaneGuy said:

I see that today in the Bangkok Post they have the official CAA announcement which in section (4) allows entry to "Non-Thai nationals who hold a valid certificate of residence, or permission to take up residence in the Kingdom".  Does anyone know for sure what such a "certificate" is and whether they might mean to include retirement visas and extensions of stay for retirement?  Or could it be that they simply mean the certificate of residence that you get for things such as applying for a drivers licence (issued by Immigration on showing them your passport, visa, house book/lease, etc.)?  If so it would seem that anyone who is still here in Thailand on an extension of stay could get such a certificate before leaving the country and thereby be confident of re-entry.  

I believe they are referring to people with permanent residence, as announced earlier.

8 hours ago, Enzian said:

Say I'd like to go from LOS where I am to Vietnam (where I have in-laws) before the end of the year, a modest request I'd say. Will Vietnam look at the low rate in Thailand where I've been Covid-free for months, or at my US passport? And if I even get to Vietnam, what will Thailand look at when I try to return, my US passport or my stay in a safe country?

If a travel bubble opens up between Thailand and Vietnam, your passport country will not matter. It is still uncertain if this will happen, and, if so, when. I think the chances are good for such a travel bubble by late in the year if both countries remain Covid-19 free.

4 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

"Quarantine Corridors" is like talking about santa. As for group of countries you suggest straight away you can cross out AU, NZ.

In au today Victoria had 41 new cases. Some borders closed to Victorians now by some states. The au PM made statements indicating negative thoughts about the bubble concept. 

You either open borders (without quarantine) or don't. The later would cause economic implosion.

Australia has yet to eliminate community transmission, but New Zealand has been Covid-19 free (apart from cases detected in returning New Zealanders in quarantine) for over a month. There are discussions about, possibly, keeping the border controls in place between certain Australian states, and allowed a travel bubble between New Zealand and the Covid-19 free Australian states.

The most interesting situation is that in China. There has been an unexpected outbreak originating at Asia's largest fresh food market in Beijing. This ended a long period with virtually no community transmission in China. Given China's huge population, the low rate of infections suggests allowing travellers to enter from China would be low risk (as far as I know, there has not been a single case of an infected person from China being detected elsewhere in the world since February). However, some do not trust China's official figures.

55 minutes ago, toolpush said:

I agree with your train of thought and would add: what is the end game here? Are the governments of countries like Thailand, Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, etc that are striving to be virus free planning to keep their countries closed forever? Or are they keeping their countries closed hoping that a vaccine or cure will be developed? It seems to me that the USA, UK, Europe, South America are taking the right approach. At some point herd immunity will be achieved and those areas can go back to "normal". What if there is never a vaccine? There is still no vaccine for HIV and no successful vaccine has ever been developed for a Covid type virus. 

What if Covid-19 infection does not confer long term immunity? At that point, there will be no such thing as "herd immunity".

The answer to what Covid-19 free countries will do is that they will establish a world very much like that before Covid-19, but limited to travel (with full aircraft and no quarantine) between themselves (excluding, without quarantine those travelling from Covid-19 endemic countries).

13 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

The UK is softening its lockdown despite continued numbers of Covid-19 cases (815 cases on July 29 - on a diminishing trend from 2905 on May 29) - There are still lots of cases in the UK, lock down is being lifted - it would seem the government has decided ‘herd immunity’ is the way forwards. 

The UK has no coherent strategy. They pay lip service to the idea of virus elimination while doing nothing serious towards that objective. Previously (as in Sweden) many in the UK did have the idea of going for herd immunity. The overloaded NHS induced them to partially change course. They now seem to be going for the worst of all worlds, continuing health risks with restrictions on foreign arrivals.

1 hour ago, richard_smith237 said:

I suspect Covid-19 will spread in pockets and waves, we will live with it, we (the world) will eventually develop an immunity. 

Time will tell. If we assume hospitals can cope, and a 70% infection rate is sufficient for herd immunity, and (not yet clear) those infected develop long term immunity, and a death rate of 0.5% (it may be greater) then the US is looking at a death toll of about 1.16 million. That is several orders of magnitude greater than the rate in countries that have adopted a virus elimination strategy. Even if those countries ultimately suffer a death toll 10 times what they have so far lost, they will save many lives.

I believe the virus elimination strategy, in the medium term, will also be better for the economy. Nationals of Covid-19 free countries will rarely choose to visit countries with Covid-19 infections, but will have the confidence to travel on full aircraft within travel bubbles in countries with totally restriction free economic activity and high consumer confidence. That will not be true in countries that for the next two years suffer wave after wave of serious Covid-19 outbreaks.

2 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

I’m assuming these certificates are to be shown to someone upon check-in at the airport - But Who? Airline Check-in staff? How are they qualified to recognise the real thing from a fake document someone made up at home?

Good forgeries have a decent chance of working. These will not be forgery proof documents. However, it would only take one phone call to detect a fake, and get you a lifetime ban from entering Thailand.

1 hour ago, CLS said:

You have to learn to live with the virus. It will not vanish by going to temples and pray. They live in a dreamworld, but Dreamworld is only a fun park in Rangsit.

Starvation is 100% lethal, the virus less than 0.5%.

Thailand needs the outside world more than the other way round.

 

Thailand, at this stage, is probably Covid-19 free, or close to it. How many people have so far died of starvation to achieve this? How many in Vietnam? How many in New Zealand?

In the medium term, it is very likely that economies in countries allowing continued Covid-19 infection and death will fare worse than economies in countries that eliminate the virus locally and apply strict border controls. There is no evidence that the US decision to abandon serious attempts at controlling the virus is having much economic benefit. I consider it likely that Thailand will be hosting Chinese tour groups within a few months. There is no way the Chinese authorities will allow tour groups to the US or Europe.

Travel bubbles do not yet exist. Countries in the region that are Covid-19 free have decided to protect their citizens against reentry of the virus into Thailand by the use of strict border controls. The concept of a travel bubble is that bilateral agreements would be made between two countries that are Covid-19 free to allow much easier travel between those countries. It is unknown at the current time if travel bubbles will become a reality and, if so, when.

7 hours ago, ukrules said:

15 hours ago, BritTim said:

There is much more involved in setting up quarantine facilities than unshuttering a hotel and calling it a quarantine facility. New Zealand (much more restrictive than Thailand about returnees) has been struggling to increase its quarantine facilities to safely expand its ability to receive arrivals from 300 to 400 per day. The effort involves hundreds of staff across the government and including the military.

 

I am not sure how determined the Thai authorities are about isolating arrivals from the community and from each other, but it is a significant organisational challenge to do properly.

There's lots of money to be made, many people will be working on this.

That's great. Any idea how far ahead in their training the required health, security and service staff are? Have additional logistics staff been hired yet, and how much training will they require before they are ready to join existing staff at the MFA, airports etc? Will the current costs of quarantine (over and above room, meals and health care) be expanded to cover the other necessary costs, or will the government continue to cover the increasing costs?

There are economic benefits to allowing people to come, but safely accommodating arrivals for Covid-19 infected countries is complicated. Thailand has some people with good organising ability, but I shudder at the idea of Thailand trying to use untrained staff to run quarantine facilities, and try to manage the safe receipt of arriving passengers, and their transport to their various quarantine facilities without potentially infecting others at the airport or en route.

2 hours ago, userabcd said:

Why would one let their extension of stay expire?

Right now, there is no good reason to do so. But

• at the time the amnesty was announced, there was community transmission of Covid-19 and reluctance by people (especially the elderly with underlying health conditions) to visit possibly crowded immigration offices; such people would now like to extend late when visiting immigration is less risky;
• some might have allowed their extensions to lapse because they expected to lave Thailand, but now (because of the changed circumstances) want to change their minds and apply for the extension.

3 hours ago, CLS said:

Thailand shoul do something like the Czech Republic did with the EU+ countries.

But if Thailand wants to remain on the EU+ safe countries list they have to accect reciprocity and drop the quarantine requirement.

From bubble jabber to free movement.

A complete game changer.

In countries that have some degree of community transmission, and no ambition to become Covid-19 free, this kind of approach makes sense. However, it ought to be combined with a very robust test, trace, isolate capability together with powers that allow localised strict lockdowns without notice in areas that become Covid-19 hotspots. (Look at what China has done in Beijing following the outbreak traced to fresh food markets there for what this means.) An alternative is to keep strict social distancing measures (closed bars, restaurants, beaches etc.) indefinitely.

Thailand aspires to Covid-19 elimination. This is only possible if you have strict border controls that prevent arrivals without quarantine from countries with any community transmission.

I agree that having this information for each immigration office would be extremely valuable. If there was a national policy on this, it would be a lot easier. My own (minority) view is that the amnesty ought to be treated as a grace period during which you either apply for a regular extension of leave the country. In the case of an extension, this would be OK at any time up to the end of the grace period and backdated to the end of your regular permission to stay as the grace period is not a formal extension.

1 hour ago, longway said:

Yes, the entirety of my guidance was the email quoted in full in a previous post, which included a pdf to fill out. I hope they are working on something; as things stand its as clear as mud. Generally the staff in the consulate will know what the ministry expects, so will hopefully point out any shortcomings in my docs, that the theory anyway. If they don't then I just send everything in and hope for the best.

 

The requirement to have a ASQ and flight booked is illogical and having a COVID test and fit to fly cert, pointless. I am hoping they have something more sensible to say if I get a chance to meet face to face, and if they don't then I know more than I do now to make an assessment on the situation. 

Logical or not, they have told you what is required. I have the impression that there are more people wishing to return than can be accommodated. If you send through a partial application (equivalent to what would be required to apply for a single entry Non O visa in normal times) you make it easy for them to deny your application. It is much easier for them than having to decide which valid applications they need to defer approval of.

For what it is worth, I can see logic in telling them the flight and quarantine facility you will be using when making your application. The Thai authorities need to be sure they can handle the logistics, and not knowing which quarantine facility you will be using, and when, complicates their job.

2 hours ago, ukrules said:

There's plenty of empty hotels around the place for quarantine facilities when they need them, I would bet that there's a long list of hotels wanting to provide this service.

There is much more involved in setting up quarantine facilities than unshuttering a hotel and calling it a quarantine facility. New Zealand (much more restrictive than Thailand about returnees) has been struggling to increase its quarantine facilities to safely expand its ability to receive arrivals from 300 to 400 per day. The effort involves hundreds of staff across the government and including the military.

I am not sure how determined the Thai authorities are about isolating arrivals from the community and from each other, but it is a significant organisational challenge to do properly.

1 hour ago, richard_smith237 said:

With the requirement for Pre-flight Covid-19 checks and certification before boarding a flight, I do think there is clear scope to optimise the arrivals of those with commitments - staying in isolation in a hotel room until a Covid-19 test on arrival result is available (i.e. 2-3 days) seems to be the best solution. 

If diagnostic testing was 100% (or even 99%) reliable, I am sure such a solution would be chosen by many countries. Unfortunately, if people are infected during their flights to Thailand, or shortly before, it will typically take 3-5 days before you will get a positive antigen test. Indeed, even at that stage, depending on the skill with which swabs are taken and the tests processed, as high as a 10% rate of false negatives can occur. The 14-day quarantine is the most reliable way of ensuring against escape of infection into the community, with a test after about 10-12 days (before release from quarantine) or at any time if symptoms emerge, as a desirable additional safeguard. Testing immediately on entry has merit in that it will pick up some infections as early as possible, allowing treatment to immediately commence. It should not be seen as a reliable marker of who is safe to release into the community.

5 hours ago, wasabi said:

I am happy with the visa but think this is a missed opportunity for Thailand and the Elite visa program. At a minimum they should've offered Elite visa holders the chance to come back and after a 14 day quarantine reenter Thailand. That would have boosted membership and kick started the so-called high end tourists they seek.

In an ideal world, that would be great. The trouble is you then have to decide who to exclude to provide space in quarantine for elite visa holders. Do you exclude Thais, essential workers, or those with Thai wives, husbands and children? The reality is that Thailand has struggled to allow back parents of Thai children who I would argue have a humanitarian right to be put ahead of a promotional opportunity for the Thailand Elite program.

35 minutes ago, CANSIAM said:

Non O retirement waiting patiently..............

Assuming quarantine will remain, I think allowing those on retirements extensions, and elite visa holders to return is going to be prevented by the limited capacity in quarantine hotels. This will also slow the arrival of those with Thai spouses and children. What could reduce pressure on quarantine facilities is travel bubbles that mean some returnees will not need to undergo quarantine. Perhaps, that will be the point where retirees and elite visa holders (even from countries outside travel bubbles) might start to be allowed in. It will surely be at least a few months.

It is definitely possible, under some circumstances, to convert from a tourist entry to a Non B visa in Thailand. More documentation is needed than when applying for the Non B through a consulate. I will leave it for @ubonjoe to give the gritty details tomorrow as I am not sure of them.