BritTim

2 minutes ago, 4737 Carlin said:

Have you ever actually been to Cambodia ? Nearly everything is more expensive than Thailand.

Alcohol is dirt cheap, and food can be (albeit very poor quality).

2 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

 

As far as I can see BLM is only a problem when there are black people around.

So wouldn't it just be easier to deny entry to black people?

Indeed, and Jewish people were only a problem in Nazi Germany until they could be confined to ghettos and systematically exterminated. No Jews, no Jewish problem.

9 minutes ago, unheard said:

If they want to get any tourists this year, they will.

Excluding travel bubbles with a few Covid-19 free countries, I think they have already written off tourist income for the foreseeable future. If, by October, they can reach an agreement with China for supervised visits by Chinese tour groups, I believe they will be very satisfied.

EDIT: And being Covid-19 free is the only realistic chance they have of the Chinese authorities allowing visits by Chinese tour groups.

5 minutes ago, unheard said:

And I can link to several studies that report about 90% being asymptomatic.

 

"Our New York City labor and delivery unit found 88 percent of infected patients had no symptoms."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/20/we-tested-all-our-patients-covid-19-found-lots-asymptomatic-cases/

 

"As Many as 80 Percent of People with COVID-19 Aren’t Aware They Have the Virus"

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/50-percent-of-people-with-covid19-not-aware-have-virus

 

“Among more than 3,000 prison inmates in four states who tested positive for the coronavirus, the figure was astronomical: 96 percent asymptomatic.”

https://neurosciencenews.com/asymptomatic-coronavirus-16534/

A very important caveat:

Quote

The authors also acknowledge that the lack of longitudinal data makes distinguishing between asymptomatic and presymptomatic individuals difficult. An asymptomatic individual is someone who is infected with SARS-CoV-2, but never develops symptoms of COVID-19, while a presymptomatic person is similarly infected, but will eventually develop symptoms. Longitudinal testing, which refers to repeated testing of individuals over time, would help differentiate between the two.

To take the prison figures as a classic example: these tests were mostly a result of rapid contact tracing of known cases, and likely occurred within a few days of exposure to the virus. The average incubation period is thought to be 5-6 days. That is why longitudinal studies (such as those on imported cases done in China) is important to get an accurate picture. 

If government Covid-19 statistics are to be believed, doing the trip by air would involve minuscule risk and would be my choice. Other, less obvious, options are private car with driver (affordable in Thailand, about 8,000 baht return with bargaining and doable in one day) and first class sleeper buying both berths of the train compartment so you are not at risk from the other occupant of your compartment..

33 minutes ago, cubism001 said:

Does anyone know a link for for official govt. news re tourism into Vietnam?(not heresay, please; I'm sitting in the US living a nation-wide panic attack)   Or any Asian country that's open?  I was kind of counting on Cambo...

 

Thank you

Link: https://www.vietnam-immigration.org.vn/

Quote

It is informed that due to the COVID-19 outbreak recently, the Vietnam Government will deny to issue visa for ALL NATIONALITIES who enter Vietnam from Mar/15 to Apr/15/2020 (even if they already had the approval letter).

 

Please delay your trip and wait until everything is getting better.

The ban has been regularly extended, and is still in full force. Tourist entry into Vietnam (or any other Covid-19 free country) from the US is a long way in the future.

EDIT: Details as provided by IATA to member airlines:

Quote

Vietnam

Published 22.05.2020
1. Passengers are not allowed to enter Viet Nam.
- This does not apply to passengers on diplomatic or official duty. They will be subject to mandatory medical declaration and self-isolation.
- This does not apply to passengers who are experts, business managers or highly skilled workers. They will be subject to mandatory medical declaration and self-isolation.
- This does not apply to passengers approved by National Steering Committee on Covid-19 Prevention and Control.
2. For transportation of nationals of Vietnam returning to Vietnam, airlines must contact the Vietnamese Diplomatic Representative agency in the local country in advance.
3. All passengers will be placed on quarantine at a designated facility for 14 days upon arrival.
4. All visa issuances are suspended.
5. All passengers must fill out a quarantine form prior to arrival.
6. Passengers who travel for diplomatic or official purpose will undergo a medical examination at the border.
7. Nationals of Italy and Korea (Rep.) with a normal passport are no longer visa exempt.
8. Nationals of Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Norway, Spain, Sweden and passengers with a British passport are no longer visa exempt.
9. Passengers with a Certificate of Visa Exemption issued by Viet Nam are no longer visa exempt if they reside in China (People's Rep.), Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Korea (Rep.), Norway, Spain, Sweden or United Kingdom.
10. Nationals of Belarus, Japan and Russian Fed. with a normal passport are no longer visa exempt.
11. Nationals of Belarus, Japan and Russian Fed. with a normal passport and with a Certificate of Visa Exemption issued by Viet Nam are no longer visa exempt.
12. Airline crew are subject to mandatory medical declaration as well as observing self-quarantine during their stay until the next flight schedule.

7 minutes ago, SteveInBKKandMAUI said:

My Thai National wife is desperately trying to get back to Thailand (Nong Khai) to take care of very ill parents

A terrible situation. I hope she is quickly given a place on a repatriation flight, but fear that she is unlikely to be granted a compassionate exemption from quarantine rules.

2 hours ago, JackThompson said:

As well, current testing is almost entirely limited to those returning from overseas, so we really don't know if the virus is around, or already died-out from herd-immunity, or what.

The lack of reliable data is definitely an issue. However, I doubt very much that there has been the kind of outbreak here that was seen in New York City that probably infected a quarter of the population of the city.

In the absence of extensive surveillance testing (both diagnostic and antibody) I believe tentative estimates are possible by making some assumptions:

• Approximately a third of those infected are asymptomatic.
• Approximately 10% of those with symptoms require hospitalisation.
• While in the early days of the epidemic testing of those admitted to hospital with Covid-19 symptoms was sporadic, by the time the virus really took hold, testing of those admitted to hospital was routine. (Up country, where hospitals are hard to reach, some will undoubtedly have died at home without ever being tested.)
• About 20% of those who need hospital treatment will die, based on an average level of skill by the medical professionals involved.
• The official death toll of 54 (compared to over 20,000 in New York City) suggests a low level of infections, even if you consider the real figure off by several orders of magnitude. My own belief is that the official figure is probably on the low side, but a figure of 150 is entirely believable.

My back of the envelope calculation is that about 150 (death toll) * 5 (assume 20% of serious hospitalised cases die) * 10 (only 10% of symptomatic cases are hospitalised) * 1.5 (include asymptomatic infections) = 11,250 people infected which suggests minimal herd immunity.

You may quibble with my assumptions, and I admit that there is huge uncertainty. However, I believe any hopes that there is wide herd immunity in Thailand are likely to be dashed.

Incidentally, on Wuhan. The explosion of cases in the city occurred after the city was quarantined around January 23rd. Yes, Wuhan seeded the outbreak. However, the number of infected individuals who entered Thailand from Wuhan was likely 10 or fewer.

5 hours ago, SteadyEddie said:

Ok thanks for that. I was looking at the visa requirments for u.k citizens and It says " a letter from the applicants employer" so does that mean I cannot get the visa as I am unemployed? I have all the other stuff.

Evidence of financial security is the most important condition. Other than that, the embassy wants to see evidence that you have ties to the UK, and only intend to visit Thailand. Do you have significant income from pensions, private investments or the gig economy? There are a number of ways you can satisfy the Thai consular officials in the UK, such as the most recent year's tax assessment showing a healthy income. Good luck!

3 hours ago, PingRoundTheWorld said:

If this was a normal country - by October for sure - Thailand desperately needs the tourists as the many unemployed and underemployed and businesses collapsing will tell you. But this is not another country - this is Thailand and with the current government there is no way anything will get back to normal unless there is a vaccine or very effective treatment. I'd love to travel to Thailand ASAP, but I'm not holding my breath. Sorry for the Thai people that their government is doing this to them.

Thailand, like many countries, is faced with an unenviable choice. Impose restrictions that hurt the economy, or fail to impose restrictions and kill thousands of their citizens. Thailand has opted for Covid-19 elimination, and I personally think that is the moral choice in the long run. That does not mean I do not recognise the immense economic pain this causes in many low income families.

4 hours ago, hotandsticky said:

 

You said it was "unlikely" that the borders would be open by the end of July.

 

 

I am saying that they will be..... simple as that. You not open , me open.

 

 

Did you now want to qualify your original post? ????

If you do not want any kind of qualification then, well, the borders are open right now. If you are seriously ill, medical evacuation through the border to reach a hospital in Thailand is permitted with prior authorisation. However, what is of interest to most people is whether they can travel freely across the border (as was possible prior to the Covid-19 pandemic) without quarantine or other onerous requirements. I am saying that free movement across the border in the way we were familiar with in the past will definitely not be possible in July.

2 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

Isn't the travel history in the computer they use based on passport number? Or is it just for the individual's history for that particular nation?

As a general rule, a country's immigration system only contains the traveller's immigration history for that country. Countries do not routinely share this information. There are probably some exceptions. The US has paid for equipment used by immigration of some countries, and I am almost certain the quid pro quo is access to their immigration data.

1 hour ago, SteadyEddie said:

Can I rent a condo without a visa? And just do the visa runs every 30 days. Or would you need proof of a visa before renting?

It is possible to rent some condos when in Thailand on a visa exempt entry. However, for several years, it has not been possible to do unlimited trips out and back to Thailand to get further visa exempt entries. By land, a hard limit of two such border runs per calendar year is enforced. By air, you can probably manage another one or two (depending on the airport you use for entry). You are very unlikely to be able to use back to back visa exempt entries to stay as long as six months.

4 minutes ago, Paiman said:

You don't have to leave the country every 3 months on a NON - O. 

With a multiple entry Non O visa, you certainly do need to leave after 90 days unless you get an extension of your permission to stay.

2 minutes ago, hotandsticky said:

I will have a wager on that if you wish....

If you wish to bet that Thailand will allow unrestricted entry of foreigners into Thailand by the end of July, thus igniting Covid-19 within the country, tell me how much you want to bet. I am on. If, however, you believe that restricted entry to foreigners with quarantine requirements will be possible by late July, that is very possible. However, that is not what most people are looking for.

3 minutes ago, bert bloggs said:

Thai airlines are accepting bookings for aug from uk to thailand .

... which may or may not mean they will actually operate those flights. Whether services are provided or not, those booking flights are a big help to their cash flow.

8 minutes ago, chainarong said:

Unfortunately they haven't found a vax for the Sars yet and that's a Covid.

True, and worth mentioning. However, the threat posed by SARS has never been serious enough to prompt the kind of effort now being invested in developing a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine.

When it comes to vaccines, nothing is ever certain. Much effort over decades has failed to result in an effective vaccine for HIV. That said, the chances of a reasonably effective vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 within the next two years is probably over 90%.

1 hour ago, Bushtuckaman said:

I have Thai consulate in my home town here of Cardiff, UK.  Do you think I could get it there or is it a London Embassy job?  Or online only?

You can get a single entry Non O visa to visit your Thai wife at the consulate in Cardiff ... if they are open.

5 hours ago, JackThompson said:

I think it is likely some type of virus-screening with quick-tests will become the norm for air-travel and border-crossings.  The tech is already working - just not scaled-up yet.

Hopefully, this will at some point become true. The reality, so far, is that the quick tests are much less reliable than the slower rPCR tests. Based on what I have read, the fastest tests with 95+% reliability still take about six hours to yield a result.

5 hours ago, JackThompson said:

It would be a very rare thing if people did not develop immunity. 

The immunity conferred by a virus infection is highly variable. As an example, people typically suffer from multiple infections of the common cold each year. You develop very little immunity as a result of a rhinovirus infection.

It is likely that a decent level of immunity with be conferred by a bout of SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, this is not certain, and the duration of such immunity before it degrades is absolutely unknown.

10 hours ago, mahtin said:

Did I miss something?

They're not upping it again, are they?

The most important changes (in practice) are for those who have previously used an income letter from their embassy but can no longer do so. In the past, all income, whether brought into Thailand or not, and whether it was a similar amount each month, qualified for the required 65,000 baht per month. Now, those who cannot get an income letter, must ensure that 65,000+ baht is transferred into their Thai bank account each and every month. If you have financial commitments in home country (such as health insurance or child support) you must transfer the money to Thailand and then transfer it back to home country to meet your home country commitments. Skipping one month (accidentally or deliberately) and transferring 130,000 the next month is not allowed, and makes applying for your next extension impossible (without using agents). Similarly, you need to be sure that all transfers can be shown to have come from abroad. This makes some methods for transferring money into Thailand inexpensively unusable.