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Bitcoin price is dependent on FED interest rate? Please explain how that works.

You follow Michael Saylor and you consider him quite the authority, right? At least you have linked me to his videos several times when repeating his claim of 15% inflation. Have you by any chance watched any of his videos similar to the one below? Can you see that with you regularly referring to this man as an authority makes us question everything you say? Because he is basically acting like a cult leader, trying to get other people to spread the crypto gospel.

The FED is tasked with keeping price stability, they cannot fix the debt. The government needs to fix the debt problem, but republicans (and their doners) are greedy, they would rather build up debt than pay higher taxes. Maybe some of them are believing their own rhetoric about tricke down economics and tax breaks, but to me it seems all about greed, plain and simple. Just take the hypocrisy on display wrt. fiscal responsibility under Trump and now. The real problem is that the U.S. is not a democracy, republicans does not represent majority of the population, but they have, and effectively are, controlling the tax policy.

The supply chain shortages are still a problem for many businesses, they can’t get the stuff they need, or they have to pay a premium, and at the same time, energy prices have also gone up, adding to the cost of materials / production, and now we have a threat of war between Russia and Ukraine, the former supplying Europe with more than 40% of its natural gas supply, and the U.S. talking about sanctions they can feel. War involving Russia and extra cold winter in Europe (like last year) are both things that can make energy prices go up even more. Now add to the mix Fed which will increase the interest rate, estimated several increases over the next two years, only adding to operating costs (since many businesses have debt). So a lot of factors, but really, this is just a correction. At least the companies I follow are not trading at a discount, or anywhere near it, which is also why so many are taking profit now, because companies are still relatively expensive compared to their past earnings, and everything points to lower earnings in 2022 and probably into 2023.

Hopefully you didn’t put too much into this fund? You are taking a bet on Cathie Wood’s ability to pick future innovators, rather than the broader stock market (which represent the economy). Much safer to put your money in something like the iShares MSCI ACWI ETF or the Vanguard world stock index funds. You will of course only see “average” returns, but at a much lower risk, and average stock market returns over a 5+ year period have historically been pretty good.

You seem to be confused about what I am referring to with the bitcoin network. Do you know Bitcoin Gold? It is a hard fork of Bitcoin, so it should have all the same properties, right? But several attacks have been made against it, one resulting in $18M worth of USD lost from various exchanges due to double-spend attacks. How could this happen if bitcoin is all the things you say it is? It happened because the security is relative to the network size, ergo, it is the network that provides the security and thus value. But the network also costs money to run, and you pay to use the network, both directly via mining fees, and indirectly, via block rewards.

The point is that it is a bubble, which the graph shows. Not that you made money from it. In every bubble, lots of people make money.

You sure don’t come off this way. In one post you even offered to help me create an account so I could buy, and you have repeatedly quoted the gains with rhetorical questions about why not buy? And pretty close to claiming it was a sure bet. Saying you cannot lose money, etc. In my book, that sure is trying to get others to buy. I said you might not be aware of it and asked where you got your signals from, in order to assess whether you are just picking up random stuff, or if you are actually in a telegram group where coins are being “suggested” to you. You never disclosed where you get your information from. Are you aware of these telegram groups? Do you know how many people in these groups don’t realize they are being used?

You bought at 1,000 THB, it’s now at 4,000 THB, but it peaked at almost 20,000 THB 3 months ago, and has only gone down since then… sure, not a bubble at all… and I am sure that no-one bought in the last 3 months, so no-one lost any money, and soon it will 10x…

In the “tokens are not stocks” video I linked to a few pages ago, an excellent point was made: Holders of stocks do not care whether or not you buy the stock they hold, they would much rather you buy goods or services from the companies of which they are holding stocks ???? ... I’ve disclosed before I hold APPL, it makes me happy to see people buy iPhones, but people talking about the stock or its price? I don’t care, though I do follow their quarterly earnings, which again, is not about their stock price, but about how they are doing as a business. Anyway, I am sure I am just preaching to the choir ????

And how many times have you paid for things on eBay with an irreversible crypto transaction (which was touted as something that gives crypto value)? You implicitly made my point yourself, as you are using a VISA card from crypto.com (where you can do chargebacks) or escrow. So irreversible transactions are not an advantage.

The idea is the same: Number of total tokens goes down. But you are welcome to change the model, I mint 10,000 tokens, sell half of them for $10 each, and then I burn one of my tokens, each time I see a sad emoji. Does that make price go up? Utility token pushers try to connect internal ownership ratio changes with external value changes. But from the outside, no value is created, and it is not deflationary.

uhm… so instead, sellers can scam you, and you have no recourse (unlike now, where you can issue a charge back)?

It is somewhat meaningless to talk about deflationary for these utility tokens. Imagine I mint 1,000 tokens and each poster in this thread buys up my supply for $10 each. If you get a sad reaction to one of your posts, I destroy one of your tokens. So we have a deflationary economy, right? I.e. initially we had 1,000 tokens, but this number goes down. Do you think any of you will actually end up making money from this scheme?

In all fairness to Swedes, they are lobbying for banning proof-of-work mining in the European Union because of its environmental harm.

I’ll give you a clue: It is in Europe, and both 10-year and 20-year inflation measured up to 1st of January 2021 was below 1.5%. What was your source for 15% inflation? How did you arrive at the conclusion that most invested before 2021 when price increased by magnitudes in 2021?

Distinguishing between the network and the token. Much of what you mention are related to having an international payment network (like Wise, Western Union, SWIFT, etc.), and people pay to use those networks, even the bitcoin network, you pay to use that network, so its value can be measured in transaction fees collected. To some degree, you can include the inflation caused by block rewards in calculating the value of the network. But tokens themselves have zero value.

You studied maths, you know that a proof is not just ten minutes of ramblings. As we are dealing with known numbers (measured CPI), this should be trivially simple, yet you keep directing me to watching Michael Saylor, even though you have admitted yourself in the past, that you don’t actually like this guy.

Seriously? Then surely you can back up your 15% inflation claim, or model inflow of new money in 2021 compared to 2018-20.

And trade. But nobody is pumping EUR as a great investment that will appreciate 15+% per year. People buy EUR if they travel to Europe and have to pay for goods and services, if they want to import products from Europe, or invest in European businesses. That creates demand for EUR and gives it value relative to other currencies. And unlike e.g. BTC demand created by Silk Road, the demand is not just temporary, because the money stays in EUR because exporters etc. have to pay expenses and taxes in EUR, unlike sellers on Silk Road, which immediately sold their BTC for USD or similar.

You wanted to bet on my inflation claim, no reason to show my hand before I know what is at stake. Anyway, I am waiting for your math that got to 15% inflation, or that concluded that everyone bought before 2021, despite going by price history, majority of demand was in 2021.

What does “my bottom Euro” mean in actual numbers? If you actually want to make that bet, I will reveal my country and link to official price index for my country, once the terms of the bet are agreed upon. Do you want to go from 1st of January 2001 until 1st of January 2021 (last two decades)? Or 1st of January 2011 until 1st of January 2021 (last decade, as in my original claim)?

For the last decade, yes. CPI in January 2011 was 220.223, 10 years later, it was 261.582. That is an APY of 1.74%. That is less than 2%. Now please show me the numbers you used to arrive at 15% APY.

For real? You think 10 minutes rambling from Michael Saylor is a proof? As to “prove” that inflation has been below 2% for the last decade, I really didn’t think that needed a link, also, there are different ways to look at inflation, e.g. should it include energy prices (which are more volatile), and you can look at different regions, e.g. I am from Europe, my own country has had less than 1.5% inflation, but you probably want U.S. numbers? Also, your claim of 15% is the extraordinary claim, and should be what requires proof. The ECB and FED are basically created to ensure price stability, and for this, their goal has, until recently, been inflation of less than 2%. FED has recently said they will accept higher inflation, because they think it is transitory, but now they are increasing rates, because they want to avoid it getting out of control. Anyway, here is one link to U.S. consumer price index data where you can see inflation for the last decade, not until 2021 do we see rising inflation (of up to 6%): https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atlantic/data/consumerpriceindexhistorical_us_table.htm

If I wrote “we told you” then yes, that would refer to me, and other people in this thread, who said the same. It all depends on context, you should know that, as someone who taught English.