Eric Loh

I see that as a future sticky point. The provisional constitution for senate appointment will have to be amended for technical and legal reasons. Some of the reasons are that the key appointment entity which was the NCPO had been dissolved besides the expiration tenure of all appointed senators. The amendment has to be accepted by the House and 1/3 senate and need to be completed before next May. If the next government is to be PTP and the junta parties, there is little chance that they have the support from both houses to make radical amendment like a fully elected upper house. In the respect, we can forget about a unicameral amendment proposition.

My personal opinion is that the military has become too powerful in the last 2 decades for many reasons that can't be discussed. They are responsible for the skewed constitution and appointment of unelected and unaccountable agencies that do the bidding for them. The military is like a defacto government abetted by the elites and neo conservatives. There are some recent attempts to rein them in and reduce their political clout. I hope the next governments can muster support to bring the military under the control of the elected civilian government.

The higher power is also concern that spilled over violent disorder may result in re-setting the constitutional political landscape of Thailand. They may be blamed for being the invisible hand tipping the scale. I am sure there are pressure on the senates to step back but how much.

Still with CISF. Double salary.

I think you meant to post this image.

Curious why you pasted the photo of K Sudarat Keyuraphan, recently retired leader of Thai Sang Thai Party, coalition partner of MFP.

Senators are public servants and are therefore subjected to criticism period. As public servants, they can't ignore the public. They should be respectful to the people and not the reverse. Shut up senators and be thankful that you been paid by the people.

Don't think you did much research. MFP unveiled their foreign policies vision aimed at developing greater international cooperation, promoting human rights and addressing regional challenges after the election at Bangkok's Conradd Hotel. As head of MFP, K Pita presented their foreign policy as Revive, Rebalance and Recalibrate. There was no agreesive stance as you wrongly pointed out. On Mynmar he asked for more humantarian aids and on China, he stressed closer ties with international partners which is a ASEAN's policy too.

Finding out about their unusual wealth should be trending too.

I think nominating Sretha rather than the more popular Paetongtam Shinawatra was a strategic move for reason that you said. I am sure that there are pressure politicall and socially for the impasse to be sorted out quickly and new government can be formed in the current economic downturn. The objections for not voting for K Pita is just centered on the 112 issue. As PTP and especially Sreetha stayed away from 112, the opposition is cornered and may relent. I also think BJT and PPRP oppositions can be won over with some incentives. Don't hink a coup is possible under the curent circumstances.

I too have my doubts about watchman’s integrity and honesty. But I got to cut him some slack for taking an unlikely stance for blaming the elites and conservatives for coups and voicing support for democracy. Despite being an Army general, Prawit Wongsuwan has taken an unlikely stance in politics – he is now blaming the elite and conservatives for coups and voicing support for democracy.

I am sure that 1973 uprising against military dictatorship is in the minds of the establishment as there are similarities with the current political stalemate. Young Thais and sympathetic young military and police personnel can be very violent and unpredictable that will worry the Royal house. I think better heads will prevail to avoid such a disaster.

Prawit has denied speculation as late as 2 July that they is no secret deal to form an alternative government with PTP. He also gave a cryptic comment that his party has not concluded that they will vote as a block with the opposition MPs. There are rumors that he may vote for PTP Sretha and may influence some senators to come on board to break the impasse. PTP being an incumbent political party has better relationship with Prawit and some senators. https://www.thaipbsworld.com/prawit-claims-there-is-no-secret-deal-to-form-alternative-government/

Agree with you. Violent Demonstration like in the past played onto the hands of the military and lose the support of the general public. Something can be learnt from the Philippines People Power movement. Peaceful civil disobedience campaign and calling supporters to boycott publications and companies which are associated with the non democratic group. People power culminated with event that was attended by about 2 million people. A crowd that the authority will find hard to ignore.

Against forum rule to mention the person I am referring.

Possible scenario that the party will be dissolved and the elected MPs will join other parties or MFP has already registered a party in anticipation of such legal jeopardy. The pro-democracy coalition will still hold the majority in Parliament.

Vote of no confidence is the prerogative of the house speaker to accept and house to vote on it. PM play no part. The petition can be a vote off no confidence on the caretaker PM.

MPs have been certified, House speaker elected and Parliament opened by the King. Prayut is still the caretaker PM. House speaker can accept a no confidence petition and with the House majority can force (not call) a snap election.

The MFP + PTP coalition need to stand united. As majority in the lower house, they can force a snap election if the junta and senators continue to play hard ball and continue this charade of stone walling the voting of the coalition candidate and continue with the caretaker government. This is a strong card they have and the junta fear. a snap election after the shenanigans played to the nation wide audience. It will be a backlash by voters that the junta will surely regret.

Any unrest will be a serious concern for the new regime who just assumed the esteem role. The fear for him is that he may be ensnared into the politics and be blamed. He also fear that the unrest may snowball into his domain.

It will be a yellow shirts protest in Bangkok and it can be massive like they turned out and protest Thaksin's amnesty. Most likely peaceful but in numbers that they authority can't ignore. It will not move a dial for Pita as senators are locked in to deny his candidacy but will progress the formation of the new government speedily with a more moderate PM likely K Setha Thavisin. I believed that MFP has considered that scenario and will stick with PTP and the coalition. Breaking up the coalition is not an option both parties will contemplate.

If the pro-democracy form the government, it will be elected senators for sure. In fact, I like them to push harder for a unicameral system with only the Parliament as the legislative house. Thailand had unicameral system before. Legally the PM candidancy process can run indefinately till a consensus reached. The caretaker government will continue until the the PM is appointed with a majority joint house votes. A coalition party leader even suggest such a step but I don't think that the nation leaders will want the process to dragged on and will definitely reach some sort of compromise to form the new government.

Doubt any coup for many reasons.

I think Pita candidancy for PM will be re-submitted for the next voting session unless the Charter Court make 2 big annoucements before 19 July. If the Court announced that they will accept the case forwarded by EC on the iTV shares and also accept EC recommendation to strip his MP status, it will weakened his votes. It can lead to prison time and party dissolution. The other announcement will be detrimental for his own personal safety as the court has accepted a compliant filed by a lawyer against Pita for his plans to reform 112. This is 112 case will be a major obstacle as the senators used this effectively in yesterday debate and had major influence on the senates and opposition MPs voting decisions. Although Pita can still run for Prime Minister, the overhang legal jeopardies may influence the coalition to make decision to nominate an alternate which is most likely K Sretha seen as a more moderate candidate. There are backroom deals for BJT and PPRP to vote for him. I don't think the pro-democracy coalition will break off. Just too much to lose for PTP to join with the junta parties. A coalition with the junta is a big betrayal for the Red Shirts stalwarts who fought for them and also a big letdown for the young pro democracy voters who will be the major voting block in 4 years. Better heads will rule within the coalition and especially with MFP who will still take a good portion of the ministerial positions while bidding their time to re-organize for the next election.

I made the comment because the posting was erroneous to comment that the world didn’t give a toss about Thailand. The 2014 coup drew condemnation from UN, HRC, EU and G7 countries. Trade partnerships were put on hold and military aids were withdrawn from USA. The question that should be posted is whether the punitive actions by the world is sufficient to made a change to Thai politics.