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Eric Loh

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Posts posted by Eric Loh

  1. My understanding is that when they had caretaker status, they were not able to borrow money as the government of Thailand. The army, however, can simply order banks to provide the loans necessary for the payments.

    What was your understanding of when they WERE in power, parliament was NOT dissolved yet they still did not pay the farmers for quite a while before they dissolved parliament?

    What stopped them then, and why did they not make any plans BEFORE they dissolved parliament?

    Could it have been that they thought that they would win a snap election, borrow even more money off the books and pay from that money?

    What the precious government didn't anticipate was the change in the international market for rice and the dampened rice price and also the increase in local production. That created the large stockpile which can't sell and increases debts to farmers. You really can't budget for a sudden change in the market place. Every corporate planers can tell you that.

    In a normal budget deficit like this rice scheme, government can easily sell bills and bonds to pay the farmers but since their legalities are in doubt over their caretaker role, buyers are also reluctant to buy. And it is perfectly normal for bank to lend to government as payment are guaranteed. Suthep drove a spanner in the works and that is a fact. Not saying though that the rice scheme is right.

    What the Yinglyck government didn't do was doing a risk analysis on their RPPS. They simply 'forgot' that markets can change, they 'forgot' that prices can vary, they forgot that setting a very high price would induce quantity rather than quality.

    Now this RPPS didn't have a 'normal' budget. The government setup a revolving funds with the idea of paying farmers and others from it and paying back from rice sales. The very fact that a 'revolving funds' was setup already implies that the government DID NOT expect deficits.

    Buyers are reluctant to buy as the government wanted a profit ON TOP of the high pledge price. Only in the last months lower prices were accepted very reluctantly as that would make deficits slowly visible. Banks didn't lend as the caretaker government had no legal base to lend.

    The Yingluck government was criminally optimistic with taxpayers money. The BAAC has a 700++ billion gap guaranteed by the Yingluck government. The next government will have to honour that debt leaving them with a need for hundreds of billion Baht to be reserved in the National Budgets the coming years.

    Criminality will depend how you want to look at the scheme, corruption aside. You can either view the scheme as a money making business or a social attempt to help the poor farmers. The Dem has similar scheme that cause tax payer billions too. Yes, I agree that the rice scheme is much too costly for the country.

    The debts are not really that huge. It's about 8% of budget expenditures and could be smaller when rice stockpiles are released and sold plus there is a large reduction in production due the delayed payment and weather. It can be paid off in a normal budget year.

  2. How strange that in less than a week the Army can pay the farmers but the PTP exgovernment couldn't manage to do the same thing in more than 9 MONTHS.

    My understanding is that when they had caretaker status, they were not able to borrow money as the government of Thailand. The army, however, can simply order banks to provide the loans necessary for the payments.

    What was your understanding of when they WERE in power, parliament was NOT dissolved yet they still did not pay the farmers for quite a while before they dissolved parliament?

    What stopped them then, and why did they not make any plans BEFORE they dissolved parliament?

    Could it have been that they thought that they would win a snap election, borrow even more money off the books and pay from that money?

    What the precious government didn't anticipate was the change in the international market for rice and the dampened rice price and also the increase in local production. That created the large stockpile which can't sell and increases debts to farmers. You really can't budget for a sudden change in the market place. Every corporate planers can tell you that.

    In a normal budget deficit like this rice scheme, government can easily sell bills and bonds to pay the farmers but since their legalities are in doubt over their caretaker role, buyers are also reluctant to buy. And it is perfectly normal for bank to lend to government as payment are guaranteed. Suthep drove a spanner in the works and that is a fact. Not saying though that the rice scheme is right.

    • Like 1
  3. Here we go again. There are big declamations on how fast they will pay the farmers, but, of course, there is no money in the budget. Is it just not the same what the government did?? Empty promises??

    Obviously, Thailand has no money. This is why the government was struggling to pay the farmers ready cash.

    My thoughts exactly.

    But when will this be represented in the value of the baht?

    Soon I hope!

    but in

    Borrowing to offset budget deficit is normal in any country. In normal times, borrowing are either from bills or bonds but due to the coup, it will be difficult to sell and takes too long. Mind you, the rice scheme payment is only about 8% of total expenditure and not really big to influence to the debt to GDP ratio which is a healthy below 50%. Thailand also has about USD180B in reserve and the banks are flushed with liquidity. Don't worry about what the yellow trying to scare up the situation; Thailand has lots of money and the future economy is still good when all dust are settled.

  4. Well done! Excellent move, but more than anything, the farmers are finally getting paid! Miltary scores again...

    Military takes over and manages to get rid of demonstrations from both sides Military 1 - Thaksin 0.... Military pays Rice Farmers right away Military 2 - Thaksin 0. clap2.gif

    Military stops corruption.... Military 3-Thaksin 0

    Well, I can dream can't I ?? Actually with limitless power and the well being

    of Thailand as the goal, he could accomplish astounding things.......

    Really have to open your eyes much wider. Start by reading what happen the most recent anti mine protest in Loei and who are behind the thuggery and corruption.

  5. Well done! Excellent move, but more than anything, the farmers are finally getting paid! Miltary scores again...

    Military takes over and manages to get rid of demonstrations from both sides Military 1 - Thaksin 0.... Military pays Rice Farmers right away Military 2 - Thaksin 0. clap2.gif

    You don't think this was planned and orchestrated for effect?

    My thoughts too. Suthep need an exit, he got one. Stalemate for Yingluck and the caretaker government, they are relieved. Ahbisit is slidng fast into oblivion, he need a re-start point. Taksin is losing support from the farmers, need a quick solution. Economy in a tattered and need an stimulus injection. Coup would have happen after Laksi but not until now. None of the key characters in the complex political mess will be too unhappy with the military intervention especially the PTP as when next election, they will again win; not because they are strong but because the Dem is weak and divided.

  6. Save all your unsubstantiated justification for the coup and Suthep. Rights of the people has once again been trampled and disrespected. Who cares about the past. It is future that we should be worry about.

    The only people worried about the future are Thaksin and his toadies.

    The rest of us are looking forward to a better tomorrow.

    facists and communists are made from the same cloth..... Throw out the communists and bring in the facists and the world is a better place.... but only for those that think the right way, act the correct way.....

    Lets keep this mantra in mind Taksin does not represent democracy.... All together now:

    And so does Ahbisit, Suthep, Prayuth. Agree?

  7. Lots of emotion running wild but do hold on for a minute and think.

    Amsterdam speaking out openly of a government in exile? Shouldn't this be kept quiet. Me think this is just a verbal threat to Prayuth not lean too much on one side and seem that he is heeding the warning signs.

    Then there is no royal endorsement for the coup unlike previous which has significant meaning. Prayuth dissolve the upper house with a pro PDRC speaker. That's a signal that he will not go all the PDRC way.

    There are also rambling in the North of pro government generals not happy with the turn of events which Prayuth have to appease and compromise.

    Yingluck also has a very warm cordial relationship with Prayuth and have approved many of the budget that the military asked. So far we have not seen outbreak of violences which may be a result of some assurances by Prayuth to Yingluck. He can't afford to lean too hard on the Shins and risk an uprising. Remember he did said he don't want a Syria or Egypt here. If the reforms are amicable, Taksin government in exile will never happen.

  8. keep her as long as you want i would say 1 day for everyday the farmers went unpaid..give her time to reflect on how awful she has treated them....

    I think you've got your facts wrong. It isn't Yingluck or the Redshirts that are responsible or the tardy payments to the farmers. It's Suthep and the Yellow Shirts. If they hadn't have gone on their seditious rampage to unseat the democratically-elected government the farmers would have all been paid within a couple weeks of their sales. If you want to blame someone for the farmers and the country's current miseries blame it on the Yellow Shirts.

    Bullshit, a democratically elected government, which abuses their positions to cheat and accumulate wealth in whatever way possible, can be removed, as it does not rule according to the will of the people. This government was kleptocratic and corrupt. Therefore it had to be removed. As we know from the early history, the military always returned the power. So what? It has nothing to do with any shirt colours. It has something to do with an uprising of the democratic minds in Thailand. And I strongly believe, that Suthep has changed his mind over time, just as you will, when you have a little more insight in to the PDRC movement, their motifs and thoughts. The government can blame the recent development on themselves, but not on any of those folks wearing either yellow or red shirts, btw. mine is apricot today.

    Save all your unsubstantiated justification for the coup and Suthep. Rights of the people has once again been trampled and disrespected. Who cares about the past. It is future that we should be worry about.

  9. The three strikes law don't apply for the Shin or Shin related poltical party to win the next election. 2 military and 1 judiciary coups and will still win big at next election. The PDRC can have their laugh and victory lap now while the PT will have their tails behind their backs but will have the last laugh at the next election. Havent the coupists, establishment and the Dem know this repeating occurrence. All these coups just harden the support for PT and enhance their hatred for the Dem.

    • Like 1
  10. Let's put all the proposal on the table.

    1. Ahbisit want reform before election - vague and untrustworthy

    2. Suthep want appointed government - illegal and veering towards fascism

    3. PT want early election - slim chance and may be violent prone

    4. UDD Jatuporn want referendum on reform or election first - most amicable by passing the mandate back to the people

    Seem the most radical has the most sensible proposal.

    • Like 1
  11. It may well take more than two years to root out all the corruption associated with the multi-billion baht scams PTP foisted on the country. And that should be part of the process of a fair election--full knowledge before the election of where the money went, who got it, and who accepted payoffs and bribes.

    Would you apply that to only the most recent government or the one before also? Im thinking in particular the billions of baht Suthep stole with his Palm Oil antics?

    But But Suthep................., A good liberal statement.

    While at it rooting out all the corruption, kindly look into the 163 police hosing units worth 3B Baht and the 396 police stations worth 5.848B Baht under Ahbisit tenureship which are not built. Thank you.

    Yes it is under Mark's time.

    But Mark himself did not gain from them; nothing to do with him.

    Didn't say Mark anything to do with it until proven guilty. But he did approved the contract with born again Suthep despite protest from 8 legible contractors. So there is collusion. Then why give the big project to just one contractor who happened to be cash strapped.

    I think we are going off topic. In summary, corruption are in every government. Rooting out corruption is near to impossible. Even squeaky clean Singapore has corruption. Important is we have a just judiciary with heavy deterrent to corruption and a just anti corruption agencies who go after everyone whether wealthy or powerful.

  12. It may well take more than two years to root out all the corruption associated with the multi-billion baht scams PTP foisted on the country. And that should be part of the process of a fair election--full knowledge before the election of where the money went, who got it, and who accepted payoffs and bribes.

    Would you apply that to only the most recent government or the one before also? Im thinking in particular the billions of baht Suthep stole with his Palm Oil antics?

    But But Suthep................., A good liberal statement.

    While at it rooting out all the corruption, kindly look into the 163 police hosing units worth 3B Baht and the 396 police stations worth 5.848B Baht under Ahbisit tenureship which are not built. Thank you.

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