Gecko123

You're missing the point. Credit risk is about three things: capacity, character, and collateral. What the markets are waking up to is that Trump's flawed character and erratic behavior have not been properly priced into Treasury yields.

It's superficial reasoning to argue that just because Trump has a Jewish in-law and is buddying up to Netanyahu that there are no parallels between Trump and National Socialism. The Nazis used the Jewish people as a convenient scapegoat for all of Germany's problems post WWI (accusing them of having been the cause of Germany's defeat, portraying them as money grubbing and defiling the racial purity of the Germanic people.) They were also associated with hated Bolshevism (Communism). The Nazis used the Jewish people as a scapegoat, labelling them the "other" which needed to be eliminated from German society. It's also important to point out that the Nazis were almost equally as hostile to most all other non-Germanic people as well. My point is that the Nazis could just as easily chosen a different scapegoat if circumstances had permitted it. The Trump administration has merely substituted immigrants, Muslims, and other minority groups for the scapegoat target, but simply because the choice of scapegoat target has changed does not eliminate the parallels between the Nazi and MAGA movements. When you look at Trump's efforts to consolidate power in the executive branch, the use of propaganda, the untethering from the truth, the cult-like fervor behind the MAGA movement, the attacks on the press, the judiciary, the Federal reserve, the threats of militia and street violence, the attacks on educational institutions (book burning anyone?) as well as all of the other anti-democratic and autocratic steps he has taken, the parallels between the tactics and policies he is pursuing and the tactics and policies the Nazis pursued are unmistakable. Furthermore, Trump's positions on foreign aid to third world countries, refusal to acknowledge climate change (which disproportionately impacts third world countries, his ethnic cleansing approach to the Gaza conflict, and his immigration policies, etc., etc. can all be seen as being in line with Nazi "survival of the fittest" ideology.

I expect the stock market will have a huge relief rally when the trade war with China finds a resolution, but I am absolutely convinced that the bond market will be factoring in a political instability/trustworthiness/credit worthiness premium as long as Trump and any remnants of the MAGA movement remain in power. The behavior of the Trump administration has traumatized not only international bond investors but domestic bond investors as well.

I'm sorry BangkokReady, but you are really showing your ignorance of National Socialist educational policy. If you do any research on this you will see that the Trump administration and Project 2025 are following the exact same playbook. Jason Stanley is a leading authority on this subject.

The possibility that Trump might deliberately induce a fiscal crisis in order to (1) abandon the dollar to bitcoin, and (2) use this as an excuse to renege on America's national debt has very much occurred to me. These fears are heightened even more when Trump's history of filing for bankruptcy and his cozy relationship with cryptocurrency hucksters are considered.

Additional idiotic (and dishonest) elements of Trump's tariff policies: 1. foreign countries will pay the tariffs, not US consumers. This lie ignores the inflationary impact and reduced purchasing power of American consumers which tariffs will have. 2. even if manufacturing jobs could be brought back to the US overnight, the high priced American labor market will make US manufactured goods previously made overseas significantly more expensive, putting upward pressure on inflation. 3. the Trump administration completely failed to consider what impact the chaotic trade policy might have on demand for assets priced in dollars, particularly US treasurys. 4. the Trump administration completely failed to consider the vulnerability of US brands to overseas and domestic boycotting 5. little consideration seems to have been given to how regressive tariff taxes are, As lower and middle income households spend a larger percentage of their income on goods and services, tariffs will impact them more than higher income households.

Great summary of Wall Street bond market gurus about recent turbulence in the bond market: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/11/business/bond-market-trump-treasury-yield-rates/index.html

My first and probably last experience with a Thai coin operated laundromat was not good. Two machines were OK, but the third one started agitating when water level was maybe foot deep, and tore my underwear to shreds. Nowadays, if home washer goes out, and really have to wash something before repairman shows up, I just do it by hand.

More detailed analysis:

here's another example that disproves your contention that all left leaning posters are just parroting MSM. As early as March 7th, I was predicting that Trump's autocratic behavior and tariff policies were going to negatively impact demand for treasuries. See my post below: It has only been in recent days that the news cycle has started to highlight the potential of foreign holders of US debt using this as leverage in a trade war.

Thought the OP might be interested. This was a new word for me. pollard noun: a tree cut back to the trunk to promote a dense head of foliage pollard verb: to make a pollard of a tree

Despite how some are now trying to spin it, chaos and poor planning is not the same thing as playing three dimensional checkers.

1. How Trumps tariff polices are "poorly thought out?" (as explained earlier in thread): Look at the simplistic childlike ChatGBT way the reciprocal tariff rates were calculated. Look at the simplistic claims that trillions of dollars in tariff revenue were going to flow into government coffers with zero consideration given to the fact that government revenue would drop due to slowed economic activity. Look at the failure to consider how automation in manufacturing greatly reduces the need for labor in modern factories. Look at the unrealistically rosy projections about how quickly the transition to manufacturing period will be. Look at the failure to consider how the economic damage inflicted on other economies will affect demand for US goods and services abroad. 2. Please tell us what "inequitable tax policies are" It is well-established that the impact of the Trump tax cuts disproportionately benefit upper income groups 3. Tell us how the social safety net is being slashed. A key component of the House tax proposal is cutting of Medicaid benefits. SS offices have been shuttered making access to benefits more difficult for many recipients, Musk has made repeated false allegations that the SS system is rife with fraud. 4. Tell us what commitments we have reneged on with "allies" Hostile arms length relationship with NATO, commitments were made to Ukraine in exchange for them giving up nuclear weapons, Trump has ceded moral authority to defend Taiwan because of his stance on Ukraine. If you're that in the dark about what's going on, you need to educate yourself better. Don't expect me to do your homework for you in the future.

I think we can all agree that the budget deficit and national debt need to be addressed. I don't think that's the earth-shattering insight you seem to think it is. The question is how is this going to be accomplished. Is it going to be done efficiently and equitably or is it going to be attempted, as Trump appears to be determined to do, through poorly thought out tariff policies, inequitable tax policy, slashing the social safety net, and reneging on commitments made to allies?

You're twisting the phrase "at a glance." What is meant is that one need only scratch the surface of his tariff plan to realize that it was poorly thought out. Look at the simplistic childlike ChatGBT way the reciprocal tariff rates were calculated. Look at the simplistic claims that trillions of dollars in tariff revenue were going to flow into government coffers with zero consideration given to the fact that government revenue would drop due to slowed economic activity. Look at the failure to consider how automation in manufacturing greatly reduces the need for labor in modern factories. Look at the unrealistically rosy projections about how quickly the transition to manufacturing period will be. Look at the failure to consider how the economic damage inflicted on other economies will affect demand for US goods and services abroad. Yes, it takes little more than a glance to identify the analytical flaws in Trump's tariff plan.

How can you argue that this was all "just a negotiating tool, nothing more?" He's had to backtrack without having gained a single concession from any major trading partner. As far as your "they're all so rich already" argument, just look at the greed demonstrated in the proposed tax policies, the cruelty shown to the lower classes, and the wanton slashing of regulations and shutter of agencies which impact their business interests.

Jared Kushner? Marjorie Taylor Greene?

Economic moron manipulated by Navarro and Lutnick who are catering to his narcissistic need to be the center of attention. Anyone who thinks people in the administration aren't profiting from insider trading during these induced market machinations is an idiot.

He panics easily because his policies are never carefully thought through.

Per Priya Misra, JP Morgan asset portfolio manager, foreign investors hold about 8.5 trillion in US debt. She summed it up so beautifully and succinctly: "If the objective of tariffs is to take the trade deficit to zero, the rest of the world doesn't need to hold Treasurys." Uh-oh.

Good analysis of what's going on in the bond market:

This is the second day of hefty basis point increase in Treasury yields, even in the face of a sharply rising recession risk. It's like the world is waking up to the fact that they're not lending money to Uncle Sam anymore, but lending money to Donald Trump, a man who cannot be viewed as a good credit risk.

More holes: flat tires can usually be easily repaired without need for replacement. repairs are usually done in the front of motor cycle repair shops, not out of sight in back of shop it's inconceivable that the mechanic would have replaced both tires without first getting customer's approval what language was all this transacted in? If English, shop could easily have used Google Translate to explain need to replace both tires and cost before proceeding with repair. relying on GT is very common in repair shops these days, even the most humble or back alley shops can do this not a nice piece of creative writing if it unfairly portrays Thais as rip off artists, Bob.

Story doesn't ring true to life. If you really did speed off, the repair guys would have hopped on their bikes, easily and happily chased you down, and you'd be sitting in the pokey now.

Keep an eye on Treasury rates which are creeping back up even as recession fears continue to rise. Even if foreign sovereigns don't explicitly adopt a tactic of boycotting US debt, Trump has generated so much distrust and dislike for his administration that interest in Treasurys, both domestically and overseas has been dampened considerably. If rates stay elevated - even as the global economy tanks - this could easily accelerate the US's fiscal crisis simply because of the increase in debt servicing costs. Trump, with his singular fixation on the income tariffs generate, has completely overlooked the negative fiscal impacts of his tariff policy: decreased tax revenue from slowing economic activity, decreased tax revenue due to reduced exports, decreased tax revenue from capital losses in the stock market, decreased travel to the US, decreased tax revenue from cratering consumer confidence, higher outlays due to rising unemployment, etc. Another overlooked impact is the stress rising rates and slowing economic activity will have on the banking sector because of increased distressed loans and the spread between banks are able to offer and what depositors can receive elsewhere. I've read that the threat of a boycott of US debt is a hollow threat because the Fed can always just step in and buy US debt, but how long do you think that would play out before there was a crisis of confidence in the US dollar? I believe the failure of the Trump administration to recognize this major vulnerability, wallowing in its hubristic belief that America holds all the cards, will prove to be what forces them to reverse course on his ill thought out trade policy. Unfortunately a tremendous amount of damage which cannot easily be reversed has already been done to global trust and respect for American leadership.