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Srikcir

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Posts posted by Srikcir

  1. “Premier Prayut Chan-o-cha has rejected the possibility of talks with former prime minister Thaksin ….. adding that he was in any case impartial to opposing sides in the political conflict.”

    Taking Gen. Prayuth’s statement at face value, wouldn’t he seem to be the perfect party to negotiate the political conflict? He is not only “impartial” and “nonpolitical,” but also holds all the power. Sadly, it is because he holds all the power that allows him to pursue his own agenda for the political future of Thailand without being concerned about public participation and mandate.

    Prayuth naively sees the political conflict as PTP versus the Democrats and his reforms are intended to eliminate the political strength of Thaksin and the PTP. In reality the conflict is a much deeper RIFT in Thai society. Prayuth should understand that Thaksin does not own populist ideology and any charismatic leader can succeed Thaksin and Yingluck to attract majority support of the Thais.

    The growing middle class and ignored low income class will continue to challenge the long-ruling elite despite the Junta’s reforms. There will come a time when appeasements by the oligarchy in the forms of gifts and subsidies will become insufficient for the loss of Thais human rights and liberties.

    Then the military may wish that it was more accommodating to reconciliation.

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    I am sure if Thaksin came home did his jail time, got released and made an appointment with the PM the PM would give it some consideration.....maybe even offer him a job.

    Every ex-con needs a second chance.

    And there isn't enough cleaners in Bangkok from the look of the place.

    And if the NCPO didn't abolish the Constitution and grant itself amnesty, Gen. Prayuth and his military cronies could also join Thaksin as ex-cons.

  3. "He noted that discussions elsewhere would be otherwise illegal."

    Thank you for the reminder General Prayuth that the nation is still under martial law and freedom of expression is a priviledge granted only by the Junta. And thank you also for the live broadcast so the Government can explain its position and squelch opposing viewpoints.

  4. Unfortunately, it was the Constitutional Court's fault for the "failure" simply because there was NO FAILURE. The 2007 Constitution and policies by the EC allow for voting to occur at times other than the single day designated for national elections.

    For example:

    - Advanced voting before the official election day is an accepted policy even though not in the Constitution and never challenged as unconstitutional.

    - Registration of candidates was allowed at other than officially designated locations when the PDRC blocked access and never challenged as unconstitutional. - EC has the authority to adjust official voting places in the case of emergency such as when poll station access become difficult or inaccessable.

    The Constitutional Court instead chose to void the votes by 90% of those who voted on Feb. 2nd. It also chose to further deny the vote of the remaining 10% who were provided the opportunity to meet their constitutional obligations to vote two weeks later in an EC supervised election. Despite such irresponsbile rulings, both the EC and Yingluck admininstration agreed to try for another national election day in June 2014. But of course the military coup happened, the Constitution was aboilished, and human rights ceased.

    Judging from the previous blocking efforts of the EC with the Yingluck administration to prevent new elections in 2013 and 2014, and voiding previous PTP government elects, I expect the EC will fault Yingluck for the failure. It really has no options if it wants the Junta to prevent its own merger in the reform process into cabinet minisitries. It will make sure its investigation will NOT fault the Constitutional Court nor ITSELF.

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  5. "The government over the past year ..."

    The government must make sustained efforts to stop trafficking. The Junta came to power 8 months ago and formed the NLA 5 months ago. Most of its anti-trafficking efforts have happened in the last couple months. That is hardly a sustained effort unless the Junta is trying to claim credit for previous governments' efforts, howevere minimally that may be.

    The USA waited years before it finally put Thailand on Tier 3. It's not going to reverse that decision for a short-term flurry of efforts that seem more publicity stunts than reflective of any sustainable policy.

    Some ask why should Thailand care about the USA, shouldn't the USA stay out of Thailand's internal affairs? It's about money - what Thailand makes in exports to the US. Until Thailand is willing to abandon that market, it must be sensitve to the needs of its customer. Unfortunately for Thailand, the Junta's current anti-American propoganda over USA's criticsm of the Junta's suppression of democracy, human rights and liberties in Thailand will no doubt strain USA's patience in changing Thailand from Tier 3.

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    One of the bad mistakes this administration is making is not listening to the people in these situations and not doing adequate E & H impact studies something which mirrors the PT administration.

    Sure the country needs new energy sources but it also needs a clean and healthy environment especially in the forests and sea.

    They say they want to increase the forested area by 40% and at the same time are giving out mining and exploration licenses in national park and forest areas.

    Well the two don't go together, on one hand they will kick poor people out who have lived in forest areas for years, sometimes generations, while letting rich corporations in with little or no study on what impact they will cause.

    In this instance providing security (for want of a better word) to a private company at taxpayers expense is not on.

    Why exactly would the Junta listen to the public? It can't be held accountable for its policies or actions. It will hold power no matter public opinion. There is no authority that can stop consequences of its decisions. And finally, critical public opinion is against the law as it creates conflict that only "divides the nation."

    Welcome to the new Thai society.

  7. "Thai people still deemed the leadership of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-cha necessary for political reconciliation..".

    Then Prauth has doomed Thailand to continued political conflict.

    We have seen already what Prayuth was capable of achieving in mediation between the PTP and Democrats immediately after the Coup - NOTHING. And that was when he held all the keys to power. Now he frequently states reconciliation must come from what amounts to a POLITICAL DISARMAMENT by all political parties ON HIS TERMS.

    When the military insists on denial of human rights and liberty as a means to FORCE reconcliation, it has no real intention of success. It wants to leave in the wake of its self-forgiven lawlessness a neutered demoractic political system that is no more meaningful than continuing the military's direct control of the government.

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  8. No nation is going to allow "Libya" to unrestricted arms simply because of its inability to govern much less safeguard imported weapons from terrorists. Libya's best hope is an Arab-backed coalition with European nations for "boots on the ground." The UN Securty Council, that is to say in particular Russia and China, will not back any military action.

    But any effective military strategy against terrorists in Libya must coordinate with one against ISIL in Syria and Iraq. Otherwise, ISIL can continuously revive terrorist attacksin Libya. Only the USA has the capability and resources for theater strategy but an international coalition must come from the region.

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    I'm not Bush fan, but he is right about Obama's failed foreign policy.

    Bush offered harsh words for Obama's foreign policy, calling his administration "inconsistent and indecisive" and saying it has led the U.S. to lose "the trust and the confidence of our friends."

    USA's "friends" are welcome to solve the issues of ISIL and radical Islamics on their own then. Obama's policy encourages them to do so. But like Iraq, UAE, Eqypt, and Jordon, they know they must have USA backing them to strike back against ISIL both militarily and poltically. Jeb Bush offered no different words than did the rest of the Bush presidents and would only drive the US deeper into a morass of eternal war.

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    They have only "perverted" Islam in the sense that they take it literally, but hopefully, most Muslims will reject the demand to spread Islam to the whole world using violence that is called for in the Qur'an.

    It is time for Obama to finally admit that radical Islam not only exists, but is supported by Islamic scripture. You can't defeat an enemy that you refuse to admit exists.

    Obama's administration has killed mpre radical Islamic leaders than any other president. Even the Pakistan government who stopped US drone attacks against Taliban now welcomes them. Islamic peoples rely on Obama to provide intelligence, combat training, weapons, etc. to attack ISIL. I'd say Obama is very aware of radical Islam.

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  11. "On the issue of whether to keep the existing concession system or switch to a production-sharing model, Pailin said the debate over this issue was largely one of semantics."

    Since both are legal contracts, of course it's a matter of semantics! The production sharing agreement is much more complex and riskier than a concession agreement as the government takes its revenue largely in the form of natural gas instead of cash. If the value for natural gas remains near or less than cost of production, the government loses money. If too many dry holes are found, the government loses money.

    "The government uses the concession system because it does not want to bear risks during the exploration stage, while in a production-sharing system, the state has to set up budget to share these risks with the private sector."

    Completely true but the government announced it will use the production sharing system! Apparently Pailin thought the government would use the less risky concession system given a history of dry holes and missed that the government wasn't. This mistake is onerous as the PTT chief no doubt will be involved in the negotiations.

    The differences in these two systems at a time when the value of natural gas and oil is so low, and when Thailand is a net importer of fossil fuels, cannot be dismissed as mere semantics. There is a very real danger to the Thailand's energy sustainability should either system be poorly negotiated.

  12. "The committee would be chaired by Prayut himself."

    The Junta and its predecessors will cost the Thai economy about Bt370 billion in lost GDP growth through 2015. If the Junta remains in power beyond 2015 more losses might follow. Will he hold himself personally liable if he can't recover such losses? Will NACC and NLA sue Gen. Prayuth? Gen. Prayuth might consider it's time to return the government to elected officials so he can restart his coup with a clean slate. "If at first you don't succeed - try, try again?"

  13. HSBC is at fault for thinking the Junta government will do the right thing to reduce interest rates that will encourage more capital invesment. The minister is completely wrong that these cuts would not spur growth. And thus far, he is wrong that the government has increased spending that could stimulate the economy. The Junta is opposed to use of debt for the economy and that is why it only provides short-term handouts and "gifts."

    Shame on HSBC to believe that the Junta could actually reverse the punishing effect that it and the PDRC have made on the economy. GDP growth for 2015 will be 2-3% while neighboring countries will enjoy 4%+ growth. I wonder if in 2015 we will witness immigrant Thais going to Thailand's neighbors for work?

  14. "media's independence but also the rights of the people"

    CDC's concern is either two-faced or plain ignorant. Media independence and rights of people currently does NOT exist under Article 44 of the Interim Charter and under martial law. Gen. Prayuth has demonstrated repeatedly not only his disrepsect for investigative journalism but also for People's freedom of expression, and has served out punishments for actions that personally displease him.

    How is any constitution going to prevent the perversion of media independence and people's rights when an elite group can at the time of their choosing overthrow the Thai people? The CDC needs to start with the premise that Thais are not a tool of the military but that the military is a tool of the people.

  15. "The approval allows the government to bolster much-needed water management."

    These are well-known drought-hit areas. But the Junta needs a crisis to provide water management? And what exactly is its plan? Trucks with water. No infrastruture projects, no long-term solutions - just more knee-jerk reactions. Frankly, if the Junta-government had been elected, it wouldn't survive a year in a democractic monarchy.

  16. " those who are not involved with both sides might still be dissatisfied. Many of their problems would remain unsolved."

    If one looks at the last election where 90%+ of voters chose either the PTP or Democrat candidates, "those who are not involved with both sides" were a small minority. In fact the PTP formed a coalition with one of the minority parties. So it would seem that those who must be satisifed in any reconcliiation are those INVOLVED with both sides.

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