todlad

3 hours ago, Chazar said:

Life expectancy Thailand 76.68 yrs......... UK 81.16 yrs Australia 82.5  yrs........ yeah theyre  doing so well  in Thailand arent  they

The life expectancies of, for example, the UK and the USA both fell for a while recently because of their ghastly Western lardy diets and lifestyles. Is the same true of Thailand, do you know?

On 4/17/2020 at 3:43 PM, Grumpy John said:

Bit hard to wear a mask and have a shave!  ????

You would have to hold your breath until they finished.

Aren't all the imaginative, smart, courageous people right here on TV.com?

Wise up, Mr PM.

This is a post for the intrigued and the geek, perhaps.

All over the world, as far as I can see, no one trusts any of the figures from any source, as far as Covid-19 is concerned. Most especially this is true because it is impossible to find everyone who died from the disease and/or who has it.

The purpose of this post, therefore, is to consider the quality of data that we do know about: confirmed cases and deaths that we can find on all sorts of web sites, in my case, the ECDC web site.

There is a mathematical law called Benford's Law that I am sure some of you have heard of the Law, I found a couple of articles on the excelmaster.co blog, including this page: https://excelmaster.co/benford-gotcha/

Cutting a long story short: if we take the covid-19 cases and deaths for the whole world, the first graph, Cases: Digit 1 shows the actual results in the blue columns and the expected results, according to Benford, in the orange line. This is a pretty good fit.

The equivalent graph for analysing the first two digits, covid_ digits 1+2, is also below and it shows that things are not so smooth. ore than that. the blue columns are removed from the orange line and that suggests dodgy data, to some extent.

That's the whole world up until 10th April 2020, 9,922 data points

As for Thailand, the equivalent two graphs are also presented below. Things look really dodgy here BUT please note, the number of data points for Thailand is very small and that has an influence on the results: 82 data points for digit one and 29 data points for digits 1+2.

Just for comparison, I ran the tests for the UK and I have included the graphs for that below, too: 71 data points and 40 data points for digit one and digits 1+2, respectively. Again, the small sample size hampers our analysis but we can still see that there is no significant conclusion from this analysis on a country by country basis. Yet!

I hope you found this post interesting and informative and if anyone else has done anything similar I would be interested to see it.

6 minutes ago, joe jadore said:

Make Hydroxychloroquin available for sale at pharmacies! It's a prophylactic to covid19. Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycine have had a 98% success rate of cure in USA. The media for political purposes are being slow to shout this from the rooftops! It's an old Malaria drug been in use for decades, not dangerous nor addictive. Wake up Thai bosses! 

Cure? In the USA? That's only in the mind of the great and glorious leader thereof.

Wait a minute. As many of you have pointed out many times; and as this spokesman is saying, on average, cases are rising at the rate of 100 per day. That is arithmetic and not geometric or exponential progression

Where increases are exponential, cases and deaths seem to double every two or three days. The USA, eg, is on a total of 277,000 cases a total of and 7,400 deaths. Thailand would reach 277000 cases, from scratch in 277000/100 days = 2770 days = 7.5 years, approx ...

24 hour curfew? There has to be another reason to be considering that and that includes a high level of cluelessness about which they are speaking!

16 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Thanks, I found Roser's twitter. He is right, high quality data is essential to fighting this thing. Politicians and other assorted roadblocks must step aside. 

 

They didn't alter the data from MoPH as far as I can see, but they took out the pending test figures from the Thai documents. There was a large drop in them in the last one, yet no matching rise in confirmations. Logically this means they kicked people out of the testing queue by changing the criteria to get tested. It is my guess this is why they now started suppressing the information.

 

Or maybe they just got fed up with me yapping about them in TVF.

 

EDIT: Dr Roser's effort in gathering data can be seen here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

I have to say that I don't particularly follow the Thai figures from Thai sources. Your logic is sound, of course. I wonder if they have been corrected now? Keep up your good work, I say.

32 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

or just maybe they had Corona or suspected Corona, Nick Hancock ok now back at the daily briefing

I know! Hancock's half hour it's being called, when he shows up to talk.

Johnson, I am 99.9999% sure I am right. Cummings the bully, I am 99.9999% sure I am right.

Witty, I could even delete him from my list since I really know nothing about him and he ight be OK since he's not a mainstream politician.

Just now, scubascuba3 said:

I've decided conspiracy theorists seem to be guys losing their minds, not surprising with all this lockdown stuff

Those possibly extreme views are my own and it is VERY rare for me to subscribe to any such outpourings. In this case, however:

Johnson is way beyond the Peter Principle and he is taking a sabbatical. 

Hancock has been overwhelmed by his job but is too much of a coward to resign: hiding behind covid is really convenient for him.

Cummings is a very controversial figure and without the face to face protection of his boss, he is certain to feel threatened and like all bullies, he has run away when the going got tough.

As for Witty, I know nothing about him but it's a big coincidence that he's one of the three top figures and he's gone with the other two.

Johnson does not have the disease

Hancock does not have the disease

Cummings is hiding because his protector is himself in hiding: he does not have the disease

Witty probably does not have the disease either

In case you weren't sure, now you know how cowardly these charlatans are.

2 hours ago, DrTuner said:

And they are now actively suppressing the information about pending test numbers, also after the fact by editing reports already published: 

 

 

Still want to trust their numbers?

After I posted my last message, I read an article from the USA on some Republican Party politician's view of the Chinese data. The essence of what he is saying is blah blah blah ... nasty, lying China and Trump tells it how it is.

The real message is, let the medics tell the story and stop taking any notice of a here today, gone tomorrow politician.

1 hour ago, DrTuner said:

And they are now actively suppressing the information about pending test numbers, also after the fact by editing reports already published: 

 

 

Still want to trust their numbers?

I don't know whether you have heard of Dr Max Roser but he runs a fabulous outfit in Oxford University and just today he tweeted a message to the effect that his team's biggest job now is getting the data right. He was talking about data from all over the world, including everywhere!

You might also know that Dr Roser's team rejected the WHO's covid statistics a couple of weeks ago  because his team found mistakes in them and, despite messages from Dr Roser, they didn't correct them.

Moreover, like many people I follow the covid numbers from several sources and I have to say that it's not only in Thailand that previously published figures can change. I don't defend the practice, merely report it.

The UK just announced that its covid deaths had been under reported ... the CCDC web site in China has changed its reporting model twice in the last two weeks.

We all dream of trust and best practice. You are right to want to call everyone to account but sometimes even experts disagree and then what are the rest of us to do?

This will really only finally settle itself when the pandemic is over, I am sorry to say.

Hasn't it dawned on you yet? Small number of confirmations = small number of tests as the likely cause. Anyone surprised? Let's look at life in the UK ... hmm, anyone telling porky pies over there about the availability of the reagents that go into testing kits? How about the USA where the leader of the free world told us the he knows more about South Korea than anyone but then it turns out that he thinks Elevation 38 m means the population of Soeul is 38 million. And the Australian politician who has given everything to god to sort out.

The political world is filled with people who are not fit to shine our shoes but the world keeps on turning.

In the English language briefing in Bangkok today, they said 25,000 test kits had been handed over. Unless these people are corruptly paranoid, I am sure we all agree that the number of confirmed cases will increase from next week. Many more kits to follow, too.

Stay safe and stay sane, everyone. Don't worry about the numbers, worry about the things that matter most to you and your family.

On 3/31/2020 at 5:36 AM, Chazar said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/margiewarrell/2020/03/30/singapore-sets-gold-standard-against-covid-19-be-ready-be-decisive-be-bold/#3873865a7a22

That's a really good article so I appreciate the link. Of course  Singapore is a small rich country and so on but just look at what they did and how they did it. Moreover, look at their concern for humanity that is underlying their actions.

I saw their Health Minister speaking in their parliament the other week and like PM Lee, he was clearly on top of his brief: no random builder, he and he didn't have any chips on his shoulder either!

The Singaporeans would be outraged at what the government is doing to the foreigners trying extend their visas in Bangkok: mass gatherings of essentially unprotected people. I hope they keep track of all of the foreigners there and if there is a spike in cases among them, I would like to see whoever it is who is in charge of this situation being hauled before the public to explain himself ... I know, I know! Other governments have given foreigners waivers, haven't they.

The WHO is working worldwide on this situation: where are they vis a vis Thailand? For all of their big talk, even they need to watch that video of PM Lee embedded in that link.

Why are you bothering? I think obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD) is a bigger problem for many of you than covid-19.

Over and over, you read a report about new cases and new deaths and whoosh:

100 every day

too low

I know this

I know that

the market near me

the market near you

It has been known worldwide for many days now that testing brings numbers with it. Yes, they have been testing here but where and to what extent?

Let's all agree that the numbers here are unreliable. What is far more important is what to do about it?

We can do zilch for Thailand.

We can do everything for ourselves: I have moved from the city to our village and I have left home once in a week.

I wash my hands, I sanitise, I shower, I make sure my family is safe and clean too.

Other than that, your OCD is making you talk about things you do not know and cannot change. I know, things are probably not right here. Take care of YOU AND YOURS.

24 minutes ago, AverageBloke said:

Just because you are forced to comply with something doesn't mean you can't dislike it.

of course but I was meaning something deeper than that

2 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I have no symphony for me either you can make up all the rules you like and you can try and use your guns to try and force me to comply with your silly little attempts to control me but you will fail.

That's rather an immature comment. Whether you like it or not, we are not really allowed to dislike being controlled. You are no bigger than the rest of us. 

32 minutes ago, Traubert said:

Two hospitals built in 12 days. Both 1,000 beds, essentially for non ICU cases. The also co-opted a conference centre and an indoor sports arena because contrary to the scare stories, most sufferers only need observation, and medicine for symptoms while they ride out the infection. Roughly 10% are ICU cases. Almost all elderly and poor health prior to being infected.

Didn't know that. thanks. I had only heard of the one new building.

39 minutes ago, fcbkk said:

 

There is no downplaying visible here at all so what are you on about?

The poster quoted my previous post where i corrected fear mongering where someone posted wrong info stating over 60k deaths and other stuff.

What matters now is factual information and helping each other find the sources to that.

Be informed by facts and take the right precautions and adopt the behaviour that protects us all. 

So please refrain from making negative comments on people who promote facts and being informed please. The issue facing us all is very serious, so even more important to keep a cool head and promote facts. 

Thanks. 

 

Thanks for that FC. I read that post and wondered how on earth I should respond. You did it better than I would have as I am known to be irascible.

11 hours ago, fcbkk said:

It is not ripping through China, it is a pandemic that is spreading through the whole world.

The virus is not causing severe problems for the vast majority of infected people, from all we know today. 

There are nowhere near 60,000 deaths, it is close to 6,000 as of today. i hope you meant this, rather than trying to spread unnecessary panic.

 

The number of new cases in China ranges from zero to very small over recent days and you are right, 6515 deaths worldwide so far, half of which were in China and about one third in Italy.

11 hours ago, Isaanbiker said:

Why do I have the feeling that Thailand's doing the Chinese way of reporting the numbers?

 

    Reading such news and others where they state that this virus wouldn't exist in Isaan ( was topic a few days ago, coming from a foreigner in Nong Khai) makes all these news to something I just don't believe.

 

It's also easy for the government to shut down people who report the truth on social media.

 

Again, a similarity to China.

 

  

 

 

Why would anyone believe a [random] foreigner in Nong Khai? Did you? Did anyone believe it, reported or not? The same is happening all over the world now: numpties are coming out with all sorts of garbage. Yes, we have to include cabinet minsters, presidents and the rest who know nothing but talk a lot.

12 hours ago, fcbkk said:

Thank you, have trouble finding the Thai version, but will try on the PC again rather than the mobile. 

Good to see others linking to factual sites. I posted a link to that very site and those very stats last week and was branded an imbecile and was told that the figures are worthless.

Probably like you, I have data from various sites and they all point in the same direction. Even if the figures are not smack on accurate, put a balanced view together and you can see rates of change and trends.

9 hours ago, beano2274 said:

And does any one have any true figures from Thailand, is the government hiding the figures, so that people do not overreact. or is it the fact that Tourism will be affected again?!!!!

Feel better now? Thailand is testing and has tested. It's the simple truth. Has Thailand tested enough? No, virtually no country has. Does anyone know the true figures for Thailand? No. Does anyone know the true figures for anywhere? No.

There is no need at all to keep flogging that particular dead horse.

1 hour ago, smedly said:

aren't you getting it, investigations in Thailand are one thing - results are something entirely different

 

I could go on and make an extremely huge contribution to this thread but in all honesty if you haven't got it by now you never will

 

I will give you a couple of lines

 

There is no real democracy here, everything is controlled and filtered by powerful people ............everything, yes even doctors, this is not the west were we have rules and a right to question 

 

TVF is not hosted in Thailand 

Animal Farm is a good reference point here and other members can probably suggest other appropriate reading matter that describes this political world.

There IS another factor here and it needs to be said. Actually, I know it's a reminder for others but still.

The man who calls us shabby and dirty is a builder by trade. As with politics everywhere, the person in charge is often grossly unsuited to the job. The fact that this man inhabits the alt right is yet another dimension.

I was called an imbecile by an imbecile last week for arguing against all of the naysayers here who really know so little, although this thread is much better than lat week's bombardment. If you follow more than one source of information about this crisis and not just TV threads, you WILL see that Thailand has been and is testing, it is treating ... I was called an imbecile because the clown I was addressing didn't want to believe that Thailand was taking any measures at all.

Finally, the story of the actor is out in the open now and that is the epitome of the Animal Farm syndrome. A man innocently posted what he considered to be facts and because it cut across the grain of the government narrative, he was threatened with prison and so on. When his wife posted the medical certificate to prove their point, they were told that they would be taken to another testing point ...

The message is, we can all get excited about what we think we know but the bottom line is for us to take a more measured view. And no, I do not think everything in the world is rosy!

5 minutes ago, joecoolfrog said:

All piffle and no substance again.

It takes a certain type of stupid to assume that if somebody doesn't agree with you then they must be a ' Thai basher ' , what a silly little man you are .

I realise you are a non native speaker of English so it is not entirely surprising that there are many things that you do not understand.

Be that as it may, it is quite clear that I never attack anyone merely for disagreeing with me: I have never done that anywhere at any time: that is your problem not mine.

Many of your messages illustrate your debating strategy, which is to attack anyone with whom YOU disagree.

Very simply, all you do here is criticise. You carp and moan and you offer nothing, hence my accurate portrayal of you as anti Thai. You cannot explain your stance in any other way. All you do is moan about Thailand and bully other TV contributors.

Oh! I forgot, your one contribution to the debate seems to be that you know four prostitutes from South Korea. Otherwise your geographical knowledge stops at knowing the difference between one Province in China and the whole of China ... in case you had forgotten that side of your debating skills.