todlad

21 hours ago, DLock said:

 

How about just make your guess now and state your amount - any amount is fine.

 

No need to wait until after tomorrow's numbers.

You set me a challenge and I accepted it and told you how I would do it. I am not a wild guess kind of person and since the true data set on which I want to base my forecast is so small, one extra data point could make a big difference. So, here is my suggestion, I suppose I should call it a forecast, for tomorrow, Friday:

1776 new cases overnight from Today, Thursday, to Friday, 15th - 16th April.

In another message you suggest we should make a five day guess. Given everything I have said and given the techniques I have used to arrive at my single point forecast, I would look even more foolish if I posted them.

If I had more detailed information, that I tried and failed to find today, I would probably have submitted a five day forecast. I am not afraid of anything. I am not crying wolf. I am trying to do this in the way I usually make and share any forecasts I do make.

So, in good faith, 1776 new cases overnight.

Over to you!

2 hours ago, DLock said:

 

Today's numbers were 1,335, but I'm sure you know that by now. My guess was 1,300 by today. You tried to formalize it will the word "forecast", but it was just a best guess.

 

You see Kid, when you have the audacity to call someone's "guess" out as having no credibility because it did not consider the DDC report and that all forecasts are wrong, and he gets it right (within 3%), you have to be willing to admit that his guess was pretty good. 

 

But we all know that you won't do that, because I didn't nail exactly 1,300. You don't have it in you.

 

So, I'll give you a chance to redeem yourself. Guess the Thailand COVID19 positive number on Friday (announced Friday), and the winner can donate that amount to charity of their choice. Any amount is fine. Since I went first last time, go ahead, Champ, make a "guess". Closest guess wins.

You've learned something about my view of a forecast: so that's something.

You are wrong about my insistence on considering the DDC report and so on: I pointed out that your wild guess was a stab in the dark and no more and for greater credibility you should take a longer term view with more than just a few numbers and a run rate in mind.

Still, I cannot argue that 1300 out of 1335 turned out well and even though I have already said that I never make guesses or forecasts of this nature, I will accept your challenge and I will provide an estimate of Friday's announcement. I will post it here in good faith and I will do that some time after tomorrow's announcement.

34 minutes ago, DLock said:

 

Oh my.

 

My "forecast" of 1,300 in 3 days is pretty much spot on.

 

All your calling me out that that "Forecasts, with certain exceptions, are always wrong" kind of backfired.

 

And your "I saw an opportunity to help you out a little" was clearly not needed, and "For credibility, you could have explained yourself much better", was also unnecessary.

 

So, where does the number go from here, Champ. Care to make a guess?

 

Or still to scared to pin the tail on the donkey?

What do you think I am afraid of? 

I really do find it astonishing that you prove my point that forecasts are always wrong and yet claim victory with an inaccurate number. Weird.

I haven't seen today's number for Thailand and don't quote it accurately.

4 hours ago, DLock said:

 

You post is like a Seinfeld post - a post about nothing.

 

I took a simple guess based on run rates. That's all. A guess. A wild, random guess. Based on nothing. With no consideration, no references, no report reading, no citing of my detailed breakdown. 

 

Does it offend you so much that I made a "forecast", that you call me out? And yet, offer no alterantive forecast based on the "DDC" yourself?

 

Let's just wait a few days until my "Forecasts, with certain exceptions, are always wrong", becomes reality, and I will deal with you then...

Firstly, you just blurted it out. You announced some run rates from last week and proceeded to pronounce the DDC report as rubbish, essentially.

Now, in spite of yourself, you are going to claim some kind of victory if the reported number on a date and time that you specify is somewhere near your wild guess.

Why have I not even attempted to provide my own wild guess in this context?

a) I am not that kind of person

b) I would not want to claim any kind of victory if I managed to hit on one number when what is much more important is the scope and trend of values over a longer term than by the middle of this week.

c) I imagine there are people here who support your wild guess strategy and I would not like to be seen to lead such people down the path to further dunderheadedness.

In the end, come up with something rational and supportable and you'll not hear me complain.

24 minutes ago, DLock said:

 

Where did I recommend you all vote for my guess?

 

It's simply my guess based on run rates over the last week. Time will tell if I am right or wrong.

 

But is the entire point of your post to call me out that I don't have the right to make a guess, and then say you don't have a prediction yourself.

 

Your post is meaningless....but you going to feel pretty stupid when the numbers get above my guess.

 

 

My point is this: you have done something impossible by making a forecast. Forecasts, with certain exceptions, are always wrong.

What you did was to decry a model you have never read and then offered a guess as your alternative. A guess based on almost nothing.

So, I saw an opportunity to help you out a little. For credibility, you could have explained yourself much better and looked much less of a gainsayer.

Now you're saying I am going to look foolish if your virtually blind guess turns out to be somewhere near at one point in time.

The DDC report is clearly a scenario based document and the scenarios seem to cover a longer period than your "Thursday of this week" approach. Taking a longer view, they will probably also get the answer right: will you feel foolish when that happens?

Thought not.

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

I guess you've got nothing further to bring to the forum on this subject other than berate others then

The final part of your statement is true: when I read something crass, offensive or just plain daft, I see it as my mission to help out.

As for contributing to the debate on this and many other topics, yes, I am more forthcoming but sometimes quality control is enough.

59 minutes ago, DLock said:

 

It's a guess Sizzlechest, based on run rates over the last week.

 

Why, what is your prediction?

 

 

And you recommend we all vote for your guess based on run rates that might or might not be appropriate.

I have no prediction and neither have you.

Every country in the world learned very quickly that no one has a clue. Remember Gold Standard Singapore? They fell apart spectacularly when their appalling treatment of their migrant worker community smacked them in the face.

You and I have no idea of the detail of the DDC model so we really cannot assess it. I don't wish to be seen as an apologist for anyone but madcap pronouncements help no one.

6 hours ago, DLock said:

 

Thailand will be at 1,300 per day in the next 2 or 3 days....so you can cross off "best case scenario" Sophon.

 

...lets move to middle prediction and see how that pans out...

 

Fail.

Would you care to share your copy of the DDC model with the rest of us?

11 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Here is your go to article. It is linked and listed in my post above.

Exactly, that is the news I was referring to. Thanks for the link to that article.

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

What are you gobbling on about, the fact is the UK variant is here and now it needs to be dealt with. Fact. 

 

If you want to see forecasts and impacts for this variant look no further than the UK, US and Europe.

Goodness, it took you just one attempt at being civil and then you dive bombed.

I mentioned that the UK variant is here and I mentioned that is seems to be well known how it got here. So, yes, it is a fact, it is here. I also mentioned impacts but called it strength, highlighting that I might have used the wrong word.

So, leaving aside the nonsense part of your reply, all I am asking you is how many cases there are here, based on your knowledge and sources and what does the future hold for its development here?

I am asking, in case you had forgotten, because you were rather bold in your assertions in the first of your posts in this thread and I am checking whether to be as worried as you asserted we should be or not.

5 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Not my impression, plenty of hard facts and data on how infectious the uk variant is, have you not done some basic research on that? I suggest you do.

I know about the UK variant and, as I am sure you are aware, there are many other variants and there will be many other variants. Awareness, also, of the strength of the variants, if that's the right word.

How many UK variant cases are there in Thailand and what has been their impact to date? What are the forecasts for that variant? What are the hard facts here?

How it got here seems to be well known but here it is.

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Grasping onto how well you think Thailand has done in the past does not resolve the current outbreak that threatens the whole country with a new more infectious strain thats never been dealt with before here.

Are you saying that with reference to hard facts and data or is it just your impression?

14 minutes ago, thailand49 said:

The math doesn't add up for me?  Venues have been opened for a while the outbreak is being blame on a particular area or venues indirectly that is like pointing the fingers at foreigners? What does that say about the 14 days quarantine?

 

Is there no thought that the origination of the infection might have come from people working these venues causing the infection to their customers. You read some of these reports even higher ups locals are infected I don't think they are visiting these venues mentioned that are now being closed.

 

The spread is just too fast?  to list 40 province so fast it just doesn't add up? In the past they couldn't jump fast enough to blame the dirty farang this time they are tip toeing why?  I think it is time to close the border Myanmar where the problem might be rumor to be coming from? ????????

 

 

Talk to your significant Thai who will tell you that the Thong Lor, Ekkamai etc cluster is not so much to do with foreigners as Ministers, Actors, golf caddies ... more elite than expat.

53 minutes ago, scorecard said:

And why not indicate which parts of Thailand will get the heaviest falls?

They do ... go to the website. See the forecasts. They divide the country into regions and districts/cities.

Why did you say something that you knew was clearly wrong?

14 hours ago, grantbkk said:

I believe he is talking about pulling numbers and stats out of a minister's ass with no data to support them.

It would be instructive for you to take a look at the Thailand Meteorological Department website where you can see and appreciate the wealth of data they generate, have generated and generate in collaboration with world wide meteorological departments.

That could stop you from sticking your foot in your orifice from which the sun cannot shine.

15 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

there is every year a lot of time to maintain rivers and dams, but as usual they only will do it when the country is flooded.. after the flooding the problems are solved again..

 

That's not true. There is always a lot of interest in the availabilty of water around here. Reservoirs are constantly monitored and movement of water to where it's needed is not at all unusual.

15 hours ago, SiamRead said:

If they predict the highest rainfall in more than 30 years, it's good ! But why must there be a warning  ?

You're not being serious are you?

15 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

So already predicting and forecasting for the next month.  Just like predicting on the number of tourists that will arrive and then predicting on when Covid will go away.  Can't wrap my head around a future prediction on the weather.  A meteorologist is just like a politician, they can keep their jobs because they have a 50/50 chance of being correct and are never penalized when the forecast is different then what they said.

Can you clarify the point of your comment?

Firstly, a future prediction of the weather... well, yes ... prediction ... future ... of course, due to lack of data, we can look backwards.

Secondly, 50/50 chance of being correct ... nonsense. As someone else rightly pointed out, meteorologists have a much better than 50% accuracy track record.

Thirdly, can you really not understand why we are interested to learn of weather warnings, weather status quo... ?

2 hours ago, Liverpoolfan said:

Cobblers. 
 

when I had broadband in the UK i never once had to call them up to find out why my net had gone down, only to be told that an outside cable had been blown down by the wind and they were replacing with a new one ????

 

or that the reason my connection is slow is that i have an ‘old’ router, even though it was only installed 6 months ago by the ISP themselves.... must pay 1,500 to upgrade to the most recent modem.. 

 

and never once has adverse weather conditions affected my internet in the UK. Here even if it rains a bit you stand a good chance of your net going down for the evening ????

 

Occasional fast speeds they may have here, but as usual it is the shocking infrastructure that lets the side down. 

OK! My last broadband connection, on the edge of a long established town in Yorkshire ... new house, new village ... contract with BT gave the range 1 - 20 Mbs download. Along with everyone else in the village, I struggled to get 1 Mbs but, of course, I paid the same as anyone who got 20Mbs.

In the end, after so many promises and calls, I made a nuisance of myself. I had several home visits by engineers but they achieved nothing. Not surprisingly, no other provider would touch the area.

Here in rural Thailand, 200+ Mbs download speed on my iPad is my maximum. Laptop and phone slower but they still put Yorkshire to shame. Touching wood, very few disruptions of service here.

1 minute ago, scammed said:

a flat front tyre on a scooter means you are instantly going down,

and there is nothing at all you can do about it

Good point. It's not what happened to this young woman. iPhonitis is what it was.

2 hours ago, Kenneth White said:

I could point out many unsafe and potentially deadly acts the motor bikers do...my favorite is when you are making a righthand turn (khwa) and looking left (say) for on coming traffic they will pull up on the right and turn in front of you. You have no idea they are there. I have road bikes for many years in my country and it is so deferent here, these bikers (well if that's what you call them) are idiots. 

Mirrors? What mirrors?

Many bikes have no mirrors. Zero.

Mrs T pointed out the bike next to us in traffic the other day: the left hand mirror was pointing at the woman's face: her own mobile, personalised compact mirror!

The single most astonishing thing that I see motorcyclists do here is to run a red light. they do it! Amber gamblers, too.

14 hours ago, BigStar said:

On the contrary, that suggestion very much does take into account the reality. Don't adjust your driving expectations and then, as @transam would do, just run into the guy 'cause he shouldn't be there, then pull out your trusty copy of Thai driving laws and read them to him while you're both lying bleeding in the street waiting for police, ambulance, and a big bill to follow. Or, just move to the right out the way 'cause you've adjusted your driving expectations to Thai practices and knew you might need to do so to avoid an accident. And then go merrily on your way. Now it could be much, much worse.

 

Common mentality on the forum. We have guys walking around in Pattaya with bleeding foreheads all the time 'cause they insist that signs should NOT be hung so low over the pavements, 'cause that isn't allowed in the UK. ???? I'll expect to see you among them.

The three stages of being an expat:

1 I can't do enough for Thailand

2 Thailand can't do enough for me

3 Thailand can do what the hell it likes

I didn't come here to convert anyone to anything. I didn't come here to tell anyone how to behave and to drive and so on. Except my own children, of course.

Given that the most common cause of death of a foreigner is, or used to be anyway, a road traffic accident, I think we have a duty a) to look after ourselves and b) influence transgressor whoever they are.

There is the single decker bus that came at me, driving round a bend, on my side of the road. He flashed his headlights at me as he realised there was no way he could get back to his side of the road. I had seconds to react and managed to squeeze my car over just far enough to avoid a calamity. He didn't stop since it meant nothing to him. I didn't stop. At the point, I was driving  hire car with no dash cam. The flashing headlight syndrome is strong here but it is potentially a deadly game and the idea that it's their country and I am the transgressor is way off beam. If I am wrong then why is the government and its appropriate ministries changing laws and regulations? Don't tell me they are never going to be enforced, that isn't the point, is it.

Then there is the young woman on the road near my house a few weeks ago. Motor bike flat on the floor skidding to a scraping halt. She was dumped on the side of the road. Straight road. Daylight. No other traffic, dog, cat, child anywhere near her. What could possibly have caused such a calamity? Is the answer iPhone, Samsung, Nokia??? Got it in one. Had there been someone or something else in the way? You say, it's their duty to predict the future and accept being mown down by this idiotic woman.

5 hours ago, EricTh said:

I have even seen weird things like playing with their handphones and drinking from a cup on a motorcycle while waiting for the traffic lights.

 

These people have absolutely no sense of safety.

At traffic lights? How about when they are moving on the open road? 30 ... 40 ... 90 kph?

A couple of years ago as I crossed a road in Surin, a lunatic young woman came round the corner on her motorbike while reading her phone. She was heading straight for me. I shouted at her and she reacted and stopped in time. Contrition? Remorse? Apology? You know the answer to that.

7 minutes ago, JJNThailand said:

The farang is at fault. He could have easily avoided falling if he had even basic moto skills. The thai was riding normal thai style. If the farang can not accept this type of road culture and risks when riding, he should not be participating.  Im always on red alert and everything seen or unseen is out to destroy me. No different attitude or mind set then when I am riding in the states.

They allow people with the driving age of a five year old to drive vehicles and bikes here. The foreigner was doing what many of us do more often than we should: we take evasive action to save their lives. 

This chap should be thanked by that clown.