todlad

4 hours ago, joecoolfrog said:

I have attacked nothing , your understanding appears to be imbecilic. You make the statement ( still unverified ) that the Thai authorities have tested ' thousands ' of people and when asked ( politely ) to give a link you post the Thai virus statistics.

The very statistics that we all know about , that Reuters update us on almost daily , the same statistics that some of us consider extremely odd.

If you wish to take these statistics at face value , not question why they seem rather low , then knock yourself out.

That would at least lead to a cessation of the nonsensical piffle you have put forward so far.

You can't even distinguish between Hubei and the whole of China. You don't like Thailand. You have to be seen to be right on everything. You are dismissing everything except your own erroneous world view.

You are obsessed with your own warped opinion that some figures are too low and what does that add to the depth and quality of the discussion?

TV warrior you are, helpful you are not.

What was the point of that asking politely comment? You asked and I provided it but, as I predicted, you immediately trashed what I did.

1 hour ago, joecoolfrog said:

You have replicated the official Thai figures , the ones that we are all already aware of and are the base of our scepticism. If your arguement is based purely on parroting the official line then its worthless.

When I first provided that link, I said the TV warriors would attack the data. Given your stubborn refusal to accept anything other than your very narrow line of argument, I take it as a compliment that you have attacked the figures which are, squire, highly credible.

What you clearly do not like is the idea that Thailand might be able to keep this virus under better control than you can possibly give them credit for.

You go on and on with your theories but you offer nothing positive in return.

On 3/6/2020 at 3:25 PM, johnhw said:

Corruption everywhere, see many here. Simply beats me how Falangs, from a Western culture that just 12 years ago damned near put the entire world into financial failure, can complain about a cop with his hand out.

Face it, when it comes to major greed, Thais are amateurs.

There is a documentary entitled Small Enough to Jail ... the only bank, I think, taken to task by the [USA] establishment. Accused of all kinds of calumny. They were exonerated, rightly. In the meantime, you are right, bail outs galore just accepted.

3 hours ago, joecoolfrog said:

It is obvious from the current clown show that the Thai authorities are either clueless or have deliberately been misrepresenting the true figures. The graph above simply demonstrates that other countries have been far more honest and transparent. Given the huge numbers of Chinese visitors to Thailand it is inconceivable that there are not far more victims reported at this point.

I got your reply to my Hello, CoCo message but this system won't take me to that reply.

I wrote that message BEFORE you asked me for the link and because your comment was silly.

I responded in more detail to geriatrickid but the link you might be interested in is

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/img/declaration/banner_declaration_e.jpg

1 hour ago, joecoolfrog said:

You seem to suggest that you know more than I , care to prove it by supplying the ' real ' figures ?

Yes, I have just done so ...

1 hour ago, geriatrickid said:

How have these people been tested? Do you understand the nature of the diagnostic tests?

Based upon the characteristics of the SARS virus involved and the growth pattern it has demonstrated elsewhere, it is impossible that Thailand has so few infections. Thailand had an influx of hundreds of thousands of people from China. It is impossible that there were not carriers, because they did bring the illness elsewhere. The infection is here and has been circulating since December. I am reminded  of HIV when it came to Thailand. It didn't exist, no one admitted to it and then one day, when there was   full testing, kaboom hundreds of thousands were discovered to be  infected.

I am not a medic. I am not a tester of covid_19. I am the same as just about everyone here: no one and nothing. However, I watch aghast at times at the nonsense and bile that comes pouring out of some of the people here: much of it is shameful as I am sure you agree.

My point here is that the Thai government IS reporting having tested cases and it has done so in a place that, since I found it, everyone can find it: no one else seems to have done so. I claim no special powers for that!

I was asked earlier by someone who said something ridiculous to point to the figures I was claiming to quote from. I did not respond immediately because I am busy at my work and because I was waiting for a possible update this morning. So far, no update so the link I am providing now is to a graphic that is dated 8th March 2020 and I have little doubt that there will be TV warriors who will pour scorn all over it.

As to the methods they have used, I have no idea at all. 

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/img/declaration/banner_declaration_e.jpg

10 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

 

You seem to be obsessed with pictograms. You  should not use these  types of charts because they change every few hours and are not reliable. Some countries  have been extensively testing and even 1 positive test, will result in a  presumption of infection (e..g. South Korea).The United States has 544 cases and 21 fatalities. This brings its rate down to 3.8%. By the end of the week it should have 2000 as testing gets under way. The USA fatalities are almost all elderly and 18  are linked to a seniors care facility. These are very different characteristics than some other countries. Italy's fatalities are clustered in elderly infirm people and we will see inflated numbers because  the population is one of the oldest in Europe.  

 

The sad reality is that Thailand has not been widely  testing patients and has not been effectively isolating suspected cases. In contrast, Canada has  been zealously testing and  isolating suspected cases. Sometimes it is self isolation and other times with the foreign infections putting hundreds of people up in hotels. The self isolation has  a 100% compliance. Even one of the original Chinese importations  who was a university student self reported and isolated herself. This is very different than what we are seeing in Thailand: No testing, non compliant isolation and a lack of social responsibility to protect the society. There is an absence of public education and proper government messaging. Look at Vietnam with its PSA's and  public briefings to see the difference.

The Thai government needs to  show some leadership and explain to the people what  needs to be done. If the government does not explain and does not educate, then Thailand  could see itself shunned.  China  has now reported no local transmissions in Hubei province. Now consider the implications if Chinese visitors bring back the infection from Thailand. Tourism will be dead.

 

 

Thailand has not been widely testing patients? That comment is based on what? A pictogram? Or some invention of your own? Because you are wrong. Thailand has tested thousands ... 

23 minutes ago, joecoolfrog said:

Pure supposition based on believing official Thai figures. They lie and distort facts constantly so why would you trust what they say this time ?

You don't know the figures, do you? You have only seen the headline figures, haven't you.

17 hours ago, spiekerjozef said:

20 baht fine...

I know you're trying to be fantastically funny but you have not read the disease control act, have you? I thought not.

6 hours ago, rickudon said:

A lot of arguments about death rates. If you look at China, look at the closed cases (i.e. those who are either recovered or dead). The rate is 6%. If you look at countries like the United states, Italy, they already have death rates of nearly 5% on ALL cases, not just closed cases. A good site for a quick overview :-

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

85% of all cases are mild. Lets assume none of those die. 15% are serious or critical - so about half of those will die, eventually. There is the question of  how many cases are so mild they are not being counted. We just do not know. Let us say about 50%. Now as it is now found in about half of all countries in the world, after only 3 months since it was first seen, pretty safe to say it is going to be a pandemic. About 10% of people get the flu every year, so let us say about the same. So about 770 million will get it. 385 million will be asymptomatic, and 15% of 385 million will be in a serious or critical condition (say 45 million). Of these 50% will die. So that gives you a potential annual death toll of over 22 million, compared to half a million from flu. This is by no means a worst case scenario. We have no natural immunity, as it is a new disease, it is more virulent and infectious than flu, and health systems particularly in poorer countries could be overwhelmed. Worst case - 500 million? And, it may not just happen once, this could be a recurring disease like flu.

 

I expect that efforts to contain the disease will be partially successful this year, but nationwide quarantines and travel bans cannot be maintained - economies will just collapse. I would say my scenario above is probably what will happen in 2021. To beat it, we would have to do a China style quarantine for about a year.

You're going to get yourself banned, Rick, for the heresy of trying to say something useful.

There is a Netflix series called Pandemic that you might have seen; well worth watching and I saw it just before the Wuhan news broke. There are reassuring and frightening things in that series and it's put together by people who know what they're doing and saying: unlike these TV keyboard jocks here.

more tripe from the TV brigade.

talk to your Thai spouse, family and friends, they will tell you exactly what is known about your city/district.

then you can stop all of your wild imaginings and even your ridiculous xenophobic slurs.

33 minutes ago, rkidlad said:

There's no secret. You just have to connect the dots. 

Ah! The dots.

Got it!

1 minute ago, rkidlad said:

Oh, I know why Germany isn't on the list. And it has nothing to do with numbers or deaths. 

Go on then, or is it your personal big secret?

Why only Germany? Why not France, Japan and Spain as well? With the USA coming up on the rails?

11 hours ago, RandolphGB said:

What about all the Chinese and Korean tourists already here, pottering around Bangkok? 
 

The Chinese Government is telling its citizens everything is under control and they believe it’s ok to venture out. 
 

The whole handling of this episode has been a shambles. There should have been an immediate block on any arrivals from risk counties.

At first there was only one risky country! Thailand is 23rd on the list of infected countries, with just 47 reported cases and 1 death. This is in spite Thailand's proximity to China and its many Chinese visitors.

I think you should say, rather, that Thailand's plans for the future should be more certain now ... as is the case with all countries. The leader of the free world thinks this is all fake news: at least Thai politicians recognise it is a problem and have been working on it.

11 hours ago, rkidlad said:

What happened to Germany? I guess it’s just one of those things that make you go hmm. 

Take a look at the numbers and you will probably answer your own question.

The top four of the list, China, S Korea, Italy and Iran, have thousands of cases and have many deaths.

Germany has reported 545 cases and no deaths.

By contrast, Hong Kong reports 105 cases and 2 deaths while Macao has reported 10 cases and no deaths.

56 minutes ago, humbug said:

Well if some of you still want to defend the actions of CCP China over this virus, let’s look at their actions;

 

early December knew about the virus, arrested doctors for spreading info and censored internet on all related info;

 

Mid Jan came clean about the pandemic but already missed the early containment

 

issued warnings and threats to all nations not to close borders to Chinese persons

 

kept using 1% growth rates in perfect order to lie about real numbers of infections

 

not allowing WHO into Wuhan, same WHO that are now public relations for CCP China
 

now worldwide pandemic with a virus with 3.4 mortality rate 

 

CCP are gangsters and bare faced liars just like the other gangster regimes around these parts

Has anyone defended those actions? Of course they were wrong to do what they did. They are atoning for it now.

Why are you dragging this up again, though, as it is already well known?

These parts? Take a look at where you come from, Humbug and report back on their perfect record of truth and humility. As for me, the UK has been displaying elements of corruption at the highest levels and systemic failures all round over the last x years.

1 hour ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Since most of the fatalities are still in China, this could be distorted by the fact that most Chinese men are smokers, some heavy smokers, while women generally don't smoke.

Yep! I don't know that but you could be spot on.

1 hour ago, christophe75 said:

 

Great.

 

We still have people who absolutely do not get it...

 

I mean : you put a joke on us, right ?

 

You didn't understand that the point was not the number... but the fact that China is suffering now... EXACTLY the same negative effects that it put before on other countries and dared to complain about ("do not stop flights it hurts our feelings").

 

China sent us their infected, through flights, and did everything it could to maintain those flights, as long as possible (with the complicity of corrupted gvts and agencies around the world, of course)

 

We do the same now. We sent them our infected... by the same mean.

 

Allo ? No ring ? No current between the electrodes ?

 

OK, we get it.

China the evil.

China the bad.

China the only country in the history of the universe trying not to lose face.

As opposed to the leader of the free world talking about COVID-19 on his own doorstep in such a way as to may one think that he might be a complete moron. It turns out that American Doctors are screaming for resources to test their people and yet China and others are testing thousands upon thousands.

In the end, China has been doing the right things right. Unless, of course, you know differently.

8 minutes ago, christophe75 said:

 

Thank you to give me the only valid point that actually matters !

I mean, even by saying so, you continue to throw "numbers" ! It's amazing.

 

And I never that said that we just had to let people die. I'm saying since a few weeks that this virus is not "just a flu".

 

So what's the point to throw low CFRs, based on bogus and incomplete calculations... just to make the people feel better?

 

Anyway. I've got something for you.

 

"The neuroinvasive potential of SARS-CoV-2"

 

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jmv.25728

 

A recent chinese study.

 

We saw "sudden" deaths. In China. In Iran. People collapsing. We discarded those. "drunk people", "video montages", "taiwanese propaganda", etc.

 

Voilà. Damned... "just the flu" that attacks the nervous system...

 

You should always go back at the source.

 

The source is january 23. When China put a city of 11.5 millions people in lockdown.

 

It was never done before.

 

Ockam's Razor.

 

Why they did it ?

 

Because "just a flu" with a CFR of 0.735635637 % (rounded to the size of my underwear multiplied by the audience of CNN) ?

 

Wake up !

 

 

Well that makes no sense at all.

I wrote what I wrote because you challenged the numbers that public health professionals all over the world are watching by the hour. You dismissed them and, whether you like it or not, you told us not to bother with them because the true figure will not be known for a year. It is true, the final figure will not be known for a while. However, in the meantime, absolute, relative and trend values are vital to the work that is going on.

After all of that you provide a joke CFR of 0.735635637% and throw it away with a ridiculous comment: much more troll like than scientific.

Occam's Razor: that's for you and you link to that article rather than anyone else.

On 3/1/2020 at 1:23 PM, christophe75 said:

 

Please, spare me your weird mathematics.

 

For disease we talk about CFR : Case fatality rate.

 

And with figures coming from China, it's impossible to make serious calculations.

 

As for the other countries... we need to wait. It's way too early.

 

So see you in one year, and then we will be able to calculate this famous CFR...

 

I wrote it already : humility.

That's complete rubbish Christophe.

The CRF, which is the Case Fatality Ratio is a well known ratio in such cases and it is estimated at all times across an epidemic. However, you ought to know and ought to have said that there are several variations of the CFR and they ARE currently available to be calculated since there is a lot of data about confirmed cases, deaths and recovery.

The basic CFR, current deaths/current confirmed cases

The time lagged CFR, allowing for estimates of days of detectability

The CFR quoted in the American Journal of Epidemiology

Imperial College London did some rapid work on the CFR, too and they have prepared a deep detailed analysis of the data as at early in the year.

Using data I have been collecting since 22nd January, the current CFR is 3.42% including China and 1.70% excluding China

Using a time lagged rate, based on a 7 day detectability, the ratio is currently 3.88% (Thailand 2.33%)

Using the CFR quoted in the AJE, the current ratio is 6.32% including China and 16.22% excluding china (Thailand 3.23%)

Secondly, your dismissal of weird statistics is, itself, weird, since those numbers are collected and they are useful. Age is a significant factor in survivability as is the existence of a pre existing condition. Men are far more likely, as at today, to die of the virus than women.

The only valid point you made, Christophe, is that the final figure will not be known until the crisis is over. In the meantime, eat your own word, humility, since you are displaying none. Imagine, though, if our public health professionals took your approach of wait and see until everyone who is going to die has died, there would rightly be a major outcry as to why they did nothing!

9 hours ago, YetAnother said:

is there some group of super stupid from which ministers such as this one are mandated to come from ? super spreaders do not Know They Are Spreaders, thus how can they be 'discouraged' ?

There's always cases like Typhoid Mary! It will be true that many are unaware but some are, like the idiot who refused treatment.

8 hours ago, Skallywag said:

Wow - I wonder how many are dying daily from the other 13 communicable diseases?! Not newsworthy?

Good point. Take a look at the tens ... hundreds ... of thousands dying from seasonal flu. 

As I was going on a trip this week, my Thai doctor told me not to bother with those surgical masks. Much better to wash your hands in warm soapy water regularly, don't touch mouth, nose and eyes. Keep your distance from other people ...

At my destination, very similar advice.

However, if you want to wear a mask, choose N95, the doc said ... look it up.

As with our British government ministers, I am always disappointed when ministers everywhere illustrate their level of competence for their job.