hugh mckee

9 minutes ago, trogers said:

Depends on debt to asset levels. If a few of them go bust, their unsold inventory would probably be on auctions, influencing market prices.

the more I read this forum the more I realise that it's all speculation from you guys and little fact and not to be taken seriously, I admit I made the mistake of taking you guys seriously and overestimated you, it's all if's but's and maybe's and a lot of wishful thinking and amateur opinions, in future I'll stick to the bangkok post or other news services, too many on here have their own agenda and as i said defintely not to be taken seriously.

6 minutes ago, trogers said:

You have your opinion, and I have mine. And I bought my first condo in 1994.

 

I only share what I perceive as the undercurrents developing. Look at the financial reports of the public listed developers yourself.

yes well i'm obviously not as smart as you guys, if the developers who you say are now the big listed companies start to struggle financially then they build less condos in the future, wouldn't this then help the propery market? and not in fact help to cause a crash? it's not like they're going to start selling their existing condos on the cheap? correct me if I'm wrong but if what you describe is happening then less condos will get built in the future and that can only be a positive for the property market.

12 minutes ago, trogers said:

Some projects, in Pattaya or similar, have such payment terms for foreigners, but different terms for Thais.

 

Down payments for most projects in Bangkok cap at 20-30%.

no not some, all projects in pattaya I looked at had this had this, sure you already know this of course

more talking down on this forum of Thailand property market from guys with different agenda

why can't you guys just be honest? you have no clue what is going to happen in the future or even what is happening now but you like to make out that you do and I'd say that most of the guys who post on here supporting the argument that something bad is going to happen regarding the Thai property market do so as that is their hope....be honest I'm right, all you posters predicting a crash want this to happen but in reality have no clue if it is actually going to happen and all you do is speculate and hope that you are right without having any firm data or evidence, in fact most evidence up to now is to the contrary, there's been little movement in average selling prices for a very long time.

7 minutes ago, hugh mckee said:

 

1 hour ago, trogers said:

While others look at microeconomics issues with sales performances, I suspect that the traditional measures might not be applicable in a world flushed with liquidity from the numerous QEs.

 

One significant observation I have is that the market has elbowed out developers who are not public listed.

 

Booking performance of new project launches are no longer a barometer for the actual sales transfer on construction competition because money to be committed by those who made bookings remain low.

 

Unlike say, Singapore, where those who booked would need to arrange funds for 80% of the sales price, paying in stages as construction proceeds.

 

So, the measure I am now studying is the inventory and sales volumes of the public listed developers in SET. Their activities are now largely fuelled by issuing debentures.

 

The tipping point for the market, I suspect, would be excessive build up of inventory coupled with poor sales transfer, and a crisis in the financial market that would cut off further cash flow support to these developers.

 

 

"Unlike say, Singapore, where those who booked would need to arrange funds for 80% of the sales price, paying in stages as construction proceeds."

I looked at a few condos before making my choice, every single one of them had a large deposit, normally 30% and then staged payments, just like you describe in Singapore, meaning that on completion of construction you've already paid  approx' 60%  of the actual price so not sure of your point in comparing Thailand unfavourably with the Singapore model as from my experience they are similar.

21 minutes ago, Number 6 said:

 

There is no way I'd sink 1/3 my life savings into a condo, especially at these prices and as an American especially at the current x rates.

 

 

 

hey life is a gamble, I want to spend at 52 the rest of my UK winter months in a warm sunny climate, I want to live a stone's throw from the beach, I want this to be in my home, not someone else's, personally not interested in renting or rental prices, to achieve my wishes I had to pay just under 1/3 of my life's savings, for you no way you'd do that, that is fine, personally I would and have, if i am to spend half the rest of my life living abroad then I wish to be comfortable and for this I know I have to pay.

I'm in no way knocking anyone who prefers to rent and we all have different individual circumstances and brains, no 2 people think exactly the same....but I am knocking the insincerity of some of the posters who post on this topic, they don't think there's going to be a "property crash"..........THEY HOPE!

6 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

 

You don't read much news, do you?

Thailand is slowly falling behind pretty much any country in the region.

 

Below is from the Post:

Despite revising its estimates for several Asean economies, Asian Development Bank (ADB) kept Thailand's economic growth forecast flat at 3.5% in 2017 because of a slowdown in public investment in the first half of the year.

ADB maintained its Thai forecast from its April projection. However, the bank raised its growth figures for Singapore from 2.2% to 2.7%, Malaysia from 4.4% to 5.5%, and the Philippines from 6.4% to 6.5%.

I read from people like you overly keen to put Thailand down, the 3rd most popular tourist destination in the world.

most countries would be happy to have 3.5% growth and not claiming to be some kind of economics professor, my quote

said I HOPED in the future Thailand can be like it's the more proseperous Asian neighbours, maybe expatoilworker you should read more?

I've read a good bit recently expatworker mainly because I read what funandsuninbangkok has been saying and was researching before I bought my pattaya condo in June this year, I came to the conclusion then and further reading confirms this, there is not going to be any major price correction for condos in Pattaya, if right this will disappoint some on here, Pattaya is a growing city with many major infrastructure improvements planned and even with European recessions has seen yearly double digit growth in tourism, these things will help safeguard property prices in the area against other negative factors and the likeliehood is that 5 years from now condos will be even more expensive than they are now, many negative factors have took place over the last few years, oversupply, collapse of currencies, yet as of now no crash, no correction, the prophets of doom on here have so far got it wrong but of course can always use "it's still to happen" argument, why don't people like funandsuninbangkok write honestly and admit he's got it wrong, he started this thread and his extremely negative predictions have not happened.

many local reports online about the property situation to be read online, from Bangkok Post and others, much reading expatworker, no crash, no major downward movement in prices, overall prices seem to be static to having decreased slightly but location being a major factor and in good locations things are still strong and prices still growing.

9 minutes ago, hugh mckee said:

just went through this thread, "funandsuninbangkok", don't know why you've got "fun" in your username, I've never read

so many negative posts from one person, your fingers seem to be itching at your keyboard just waiting to put down

Thai real estate at every miniscule opportunity and you literally badmouth anything to support your argument/wishes

that Thai propery will collapse so as you can greedily take advantage and that others who unlike you who choose to buy will lose out and in some way justify your decision always to rent and never to buy.

you come across as a nasty, greedy, money obsessed know-it-all individual whose every waking thought seems to be about money, I personally would hate to live my life like that, maybe you should get out more and spend some of your money, you can't take it with you, instead it appears you sit around your pc all day, ever ready to respond to anyone who dares suggest that your dreams of a Thai property crash will not materialise.

I personally now would be gutted if there were such a crash, not just because I choose to buy my dream holiday home in the sun despite what I read on here, despite only getting 42 baht to the £ when I was getting 52 a year earlier, I bought because you only live once and not sitting around for years waiting for a crash, you started this thread with a report from dd property talking about a property crash, this report is now over 2 years old, funinthesuninbangkok you'll be posting similar posts 10 years from now if you're still here, you'll do it until you die, your money obsession will always dictate your life and you will die a very rich man, I hope there's no crash just so as you're wrong but even if you're eventually right, you'll quickly turn to badmouthing something else as you clearly thrive on negativity.

no more posts from me on this subject, as a buyer or a renter or just a 2 week holiday maker, I hope Thailand flourishes

and in years to come has an economy that eventually competes with Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, it's a country I've always enjoyed visiting, can't understand people like the OP who live here and then have so many negative things to say and wish and say so many bad things about the country they choose to live in, for funandsuninbangkok, it's totally to do with money and maybe he'd be better spending some of it on some therapy?.....have a read at some of your posts man! ..why don't you give up this money obsession and instead be true to your "name" and have some fun in the sun in Bangkok!

2 minutes ago, funandsuninbangkok said:

Just because I am not foolish enough to buy a condo in Pattaya, a place with infinite sleaze and thousands of empty condos, does not make me greedy.   

 

I think what you will find is that the developers in Thailand over promise and under deliver.  You will also have to contend with hoards of Chinese and Indian  day tourist in your building noisily boning lady boys.  

 

Enjoy

no problem, you enjoy counting your money.

26 minutes ago, funandsuninbangkok said:

Not desperate, big man eggs, lots of cash and investments, happily renting while making my money work for me in the equity markets.  Never claimed and not interested in owning this forum. 

well some people like you are totally obsessed by money,  we are not all interested in investments and amassing as much money as humanly possible, I'm not and money is not the "be all and end all" as it obviously is with you, good luck with that but I personally am quite prepared to lose some money in my pursuit of a comfortable life and  knew this of course with my decision to buy my condo and live in my own home as opposed to renting and living in someone else's....each to their own.

as I said hope there's never a crash to spite greedy money obsessed people like you,  you can continue to dream that other people's misfortune can make you even more money, that level of greed is not my thing.

and the ironic thing about it is that there is every likeliehood that 5 years from now Pattaya and Thailand property will be even more expensive than it is today?....of course no one knows this but in the growing and strong developing economy of Thailand surely this has to be a strong possibility?

14 hours ago, funandsuninbangkok said:

Look, you just showed up and tossed a huge wedge of your life savings on one of the worst possible investments a newbie could make. 

 

Live with it in quiet desperation like most.  Dont start saying we ain't got cash and / or man eggs. 

oh excuse me, I didn't realise you owned the forum? "quiet desperation like most" wow from your posts you are the guy who is desperate.

personally I spent less than 1/3 of my life's saving on a luxury condo as I don't want to rent and in my 50's don't want to be an old man or die with the cash in the bank, I'm not desperate, I'm relaxed, my last property purchase at home in uk was in 2007, it's worth 10k-15k less now in 2017 than it was when I bought it 10 years ago, I don't lose any sleep over this, sure it would be nicer if it had doubled in value but it hasn't and you just get on with your life, I did not buy my condo in my 50's as an investment, I bought it for pleasure, my pleasure and if it goes up in value I'd be happy but if it goes down I'll accept it just the same as I have when it has happened to me with property in the past, nothing anyone can do about this and I bought with this knowledge after reading this forum and others.

to use your words there is "desperation" for a crash from many of the posters on here and hope it never happens particularly to spite people like you, if there is a crash? I'll still have my holiday home and my UK home and enough in the bank to retire comfortably, would be pissed of about it but just get on with my life and won't stop me enjoying the UK winter months in my holiday home which I've been fortunate enough to be able to afford.

Thailand is a growing economy, I considered Florida, Tenerife and Cyprus for my holiday home, I choose Thailand and Pattaya for various reasons but one was I wanted an apartment right on the beach, in Pattaya I got one 50 yards from the beach for nowhere near what i'd have had to pay in the other countries, Pattaya is extremely cheap in comparison to other "popular" holiday home locations and is a growing and popular city in a growing and poular country, maybe your desperation for a crash will not happen and your dreams will not be fulfilled after all?....whatever happens I will enjoy my luxury holiday home by the beach regardless

On 21/09/2017 at 12:53 PM, Number 6 said:

So, what could potentially be the trigger to bring it all crashing down?

 

Chinese halt buying

 

USD (world) interest rates double

 

Can't possibly think anyone from EU, UK, US or Oz is buying with x rates being what they are.

 

In the end, many sellers simply must resigning themselves to living in their box for the remainder of their lonely, single lives. If the economy doesn't tank, and they lose their job, they can stay above water. Nothing changes.

 

The economy is weakening. I see it.

if someone is planning to buy their "dream holiday home in the sun" is 10% or so fluctuaion in exchange rates going to stop them?

me personally (from UK) it didn't, it all depends on individual circumstances and the euro is not so weak and many rich Americans and Australians, if this is your dream you'll most probably still go for it regardless of exchange rates.

so many doom mongers on here, wishing for this crash so that others suffer, life is for living, me personally I'd rather have

a nice condo as opposed to having the money lying in a bank, none of us know what's ahead for us, sure buying a condo

is a gamble, sometimes you have to take a chance, waiting for a crash? 1year? 5 years? 25 years? no one knows

I think most of the people on here who criticse or mock condo buyers are not the type of people who'd buy a condo, either haven't got the cash or the balls or both and many of their comments/hopes are fuelled by jealousy

thank you so much for your replies.

I think if I had and read and listened more closely to the forums and not to the developer then I don't buy so I hope

it turns out to be a good (and lucky) thing for me that I only read and listened more to you guys after and not before

my purchase.

yes maybe 90% aren't really sold? and i could still have got my "poolside corner unit"? but after viewing many condo's

this one ticked so many boxes for me and my heart ruled my head a little, well a lot and of course now fear that I made

a much bigger gamble than I originally thought but forums too can have a disproportionate number of negative comments

as people are less likely to post when things go as planned but nevertheless will be an anxious guy for next few months now.

sure i will keep posted if anyone interested in the outcome.

didn't post name of condo, not sure wise or allowed?

thanks again

sorry, if I'm hijacking this thread slightly?

I have just joined and reading your comments terrify me, I have just bought a condo off-plan and paid 100% upfront,

over 7 million baht about 1/3 of my savings, I did what research i could and have watched the condo being built over the

last year when I visit Pattaya on holiday, much construction seen and build ahead of plan and one year to go which they expect to complete before schedule, the condo is 90% sold, few units remaining, with all this in mind and reading beforehand that

98% of condos get completed and this one is half way there and 90% sold (UK developer) I maybe stupidly thought I want

one of these beautiful condos and got discount for paying 100%, if i did this in UK, I would not be worried, speaking with the

condo developer/owner beforehand convinced me to "go for it"

does anyone who buys off-plan need their head examined as written on here? where does that leave me? not only did I buy

off-plan, I paid 100%...means I must be "one flew over the cuckoo's nest"

is there any instance where buying off-plan is a good idea?

to secure my unit and good price (exactly the one I wanted and def' be gone if I didn't buy off-plan) I had to "go for it"

could not wait, yes I did not have to pay 100% and for higher price could have paid 30% deposit.

I know no one on here is going to tell me "don't worry your condo will be built...relax" but i am shocked to read the comments

on here and elsewhere too about buying off-plan, I did read some of these beforehand but doing what due-diligence I could

and speaking with developer meant I took the plunge

I would be interested to read your thoughts even if it is to tell me what an idiot I am, hopefully I can be a lucky idiot

and get away with my foolishness?