Miami007

5 hours ago, sqwakvfr said:

Phuket will be a good test case to see if Sinovac offers protection.  Also, imagine if hotel workers, taxi drivers  and restaurant workers who have been vaccinated with Sinovac come into close contact with Chinese tourist who have also been vaccinated with Sinovac and see what happens.  

 

I am skeptical.  For me it is Pfizer, Moderna, J&J or bust.  I will stay away from Phuket until I am fully vaccinated with the three I mentioned.  So far it appears Pfizer and Moderna  both  offer pretty good protection.  

 

 

Not many Chinese coming as they are not allowed to leave in organized tours anyway.

Returning to China is also not easy

7 hours ago, smedly said:

a large number are self inflicted through blind stupidity

 

hard to apply that to a pandemic and deadly virus were the stupidity is out of your control

Then why did so many politicians, celebrities, athletes or regular people catch Covid although they followed protocols? 

And how many of these famous people died?

Macron, Prince Charles, Djokovic, BoJo, Tom Hanks, Trump, Bolsonaro, etc...

Getting Covid doesn't mean that you will die.

Hate to wake up the dreamers who made up these figures

500,000 vaccines per day.. It would mean that the entire population would have 2 shots in 4 months. USA has  five times the population and won't be able to administer 2.5 million per day over 4 months consistently. Thailand is very far from the 500k figure at the moment.

Secondly, the number of tourists visiting is not dependent on the number of vaccinated residents in the destination.  Removing quarantine, insurance requirements, opening restaurants, bars, hotels, beaches and attractions will bring the tourists. Giving people the confidence that the country won't lockdown again at the drop of a hat will bring tourists.

9 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

Not if: beaches and parks are closed at the whim of whoever fancies exercising authority, not if bars and restaurants are closed, or again likely to be closed at short notice, and not if there is the faintest whiff of quarantine in any shape or form, or the requirement to purchase "special insurance" or any other special provisions from selected companies!

 

 

Yup

4 hours ago, rozand said:

as a medical professional cases for me still represent sick people. How should i interpret these numbers?

My brother in law is chief of a department in a major hospital.

My niece had covid and no symptoms.. according to him, she was healthy until she becomes sick and needs a doctor.

A strange disease when you need a test to tell you that you are sick - because you wouldn't know otherwise in most cases. 

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

Did you miss where i said 2 - 4 weeks. No they do not need to last several months, thats a pure fallacy. The UK lockdown circuit breakers can last from anything from two weeks to 2 months. 

 

"The hope is they are less damaging - to the economy and people's mental health - than a longer lockdown, because people can plan ahead more easily."

 

"A temporary lockdown in New Zealand, which successfully allowed contact tracers to get back on top of the outbreak there, can be seen as a circuit-breaker even though it was not called that." Australia also did a successfull 7 day lockdown.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54206582

 

No 4 week lockdown worked once there was a fairly high level of. Community infection.

USA: 15 days to stop the spread.. got extended by 1 month, then another. In Miami, curfews and other restrictions existed 1 year later.

Germany implemented the lockdown in November.. still going on. Initially people were told that it would last 1 month.

Similar situation in other European countries which had 6 months during the winter.

Lockdowns need to be permanent or severe (nobody works or goes outside, food gets delivered by the government) to work. Otherwise, it only suppresses and delays infections. 

Even the Wuhan or Melbourne Lockdowns lasted for several months. 

Lockdowns are not a strategy to eradicate a virus, just suppress infections to give time to upscale medical capacity. 

Zero covid is an illusion unless you are on an island and close contact with the outside world before the virus gets there.  And then remain closed

1 hour ago, Blumpie said:

You forgot about how many will end up on oxygen, and have long term health effects for possibly the rest of their lives.  There's no way to tell, but the number is around 10 percent.  

But hey, let's just look at those death numbers.

By the way, COVID is so transmissible that 25 percent is a pipe dream.  

 

The USA has about 10% of the population who tested positive.

Thailand has 100,000 out of 65 million.  Not even  close to 1%.  Last year we were told that 70 to 80% of the population would be infected in a few months... that never happened.

Also, death rate is 0.23% as per WHO.. Most deaths in old, sick people. 

Long-covid is a hypothesis as covid hasn't been around that long.  As most infections show no or mild symptoms, 10% of all infections being in that category would mean that should half of people who have symptoms fall in that category... seems a tad exaggerated

10 hours ago, dinsdale said:

This should raise Thailand to number 94 on the covid worldometre. No more look at us we are great stuff now. Bear in mind the almost 3,000 prisoners make the numbers because they were found out hiding them after Ms Panusaya release. These prisoners are NOT from yesterday's numbers. They were being swept under the carpet.

Worldometer is not showing any figures for Thailand today. Usually, they are reported already by the time the USA wakes up. 

20 minutes ago, elliss said:

       Indeed .

 Things can only get worse ...

   You have been warned .

      Spend now , while your alive  ....555

 

    

Even if you get covid you are most likely surviving with a mild cold or no symptoms. It is not a disease with 100% mortality.

The older or sicker you are, the more dangerous for you.

10 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Excerpt from a Thai Ministry of Public Health COVID cases update Thursday.

 

 

Thailand’s Total COVID Case Count Now Exceeds That of China?

 

Statistics Used by the Government Say Yes, Reality Says Likely No

 

Famous American author Mark Twain once made the now well-known observation – “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.”

 

That’s probably an aphorism worth remembering today with the news, depending which source is used, that Thailand’s official tally of total COVID cases, now at 93,794, has either surpassed or soon will surpass the comparable official cumulative COVID case total from China.

 

If it seems too improbable to be true that Thailand, a smaller country of only 70 million people, would somehow exceed the total COVID case count of China, the world’s most populous country with 1.4 billion people where the pandemic began, that’s probably because in all likelihood despite the statistics, it’s simply not true.

 

Even so, several widely quoted gatherers of officially reported COVID statistics tell a different story. The U.S. tracking company Worldometer as of Thursday had China with 90,808 cumulative COVID cases, a total Thailand far surpassed with the 4,887 new cases reported Thursday to reach a total of 93,794.

 

Worldometer happens to be the outside source the Thai government uses for its own publicly issued reports of how the country is faring with COVID cases compared to other world countries. Prior to Thursday’s update, Worldometer had China and Thailand ranked 96th and 98th, respectively, among 200+ countries worldwide for total COVID cases.

 

Meanwhile, the more widely cited Johns Hopkins University of Medicine in the U.S. has its stats for the two countries that suggest Thailand is less than a week away from equaling or surpassing China. That’s because Johns Hopkins has a higher tally of nearly 103,000 total cases for China compared to Worldometer.

 

In real life, the two countries present an odd and usual contrast in COVID experiences. China became the poster country for COVID after getting hit hard at the outset and then apparently recovering. Thailand, on the other hand, was largely regarded as an almost miracle country for largely avoiding COVID, until a major outbreak began last month and is continuing now.

 

As for the comparative statistics, researchers have long maintained that China’s official stats on COVID cases and deaths have likely been massively undercounted, in part due to government suppression and also to the public chaos that hit China and especially Wuhan at the start of the pandemic. Thus any such comparisons are invalid.

 

“Nobody believes China’s numbers,” said one researcher as quoted in the U.S. news outlet Time last year. Varying estimates have suggested that China’s real toll of COVID cases since the beginning could be anywhere from three to ten times higher than the official numbers.

 

Unlike last year in Wuhan China, there’s no indication that crematoriums in Thailand are running around the clock to dispose of dead bodies, nor have there been public spectacles of masses of sick people overrunning Thai hospitals, though available hospital beds in Bangkok lately have been increasingly hard to find.

 

Whereas China’s official COVID case counts exploded in early 2020 and then quickly dropped off and have remained low, Thailand went through most of last year with comparatively few cases and deaths until a so-called third wave outbreak hit at the beginning of last month.

 

Just since April 1, Thailand has officially recorded more than 60,000 of its 90,000-plus COVID cases and 392 of its 486 deaths through Wednesday. While China lately has been reporting about a dozen new cases per day, according to Worldometer, Thailand lately has been averaging about 2,000 cases per day.

 

Even with that, there are some locals who wonder whether Thailand too has been failing to identify and record all of its COVID cases due the lack of a widespread, nationwide testing program and other impediments. Thus, what largely remains to track the COVID pandemic in Thailand are…the statistics, for whatever they're worth.

 

Just look at the deaths. China has 10 times as many as Thailand but same number of cases.

Nearly impossible to believe that mortality in China was 10 times that of Thailand. 

Also, excess mortality in Thailand in January and February 2020 was about 10% higher than normal - before the pandemic started.. same in Singapore.

But in Europe or the USA it was below average . Maybe covid has been around longer than we think.. Just not being tested and tracked like now

13 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Masks are only as good as the people who wear them.

 

The recent research has shown that masks can be very effective at preventing transmission of the virus, especially when both the infected person and those around are both wearing masks.

 

But, in real life, things fall down.  The current outbreak got started in the clubs and entertainment venues of BKK where pretty much no one was wearing masks inside those places at the time. And now lately, it's spreading from family member to family member where, once again, people aren't wearing masks at home.

 

The failing isn't of the masks... it's of the people.

 

Compliance and how people were masks has not changed from last April to now. But testing has increased.. hence more cases.

Also look at excess mortality in January and February 2020. Thailand , Singapore had higher deaths than the historic average - after their Lockdowns, deaths decreased below the average for most of 1 year.

Would it be infeasible to assume that covid existed in Asia before it was isolated, named? Maybe the Wuhan strain was not the origin but a mutation which was more aggressive - this could explain why Covid traces were found in wastewater in Spain and in blood samples in Italy before covid officially existed in late 2019.

9 hours ago, DrJack54 said:

Agree.

When Melbourne, Au reached ~ 1000 cases per day they went into HARD lockdown that lasted 112 days. Currently that state has zero daily positive from testing. Few days ago another state WA had ~ 2 or 3 test positive and went into 3 day lockdown. Sydney recently had couple of + tests and other states of Oz banned entries from some areas. 

Bangkok is not in lockdown. Far from it.

Granted different countries so comparison is over simplifying the issue.

A 3 day lockdown is completely useless, if you work with a premise that you need a 14 day quarantine to cover the incubation period.

People were told in March 2020 to lockdown for 2 weeks to stop the spread of the virus. Melbourne had minimal cases and it took 4 months of locking up the entire population to bring cases to near 0.

How long do you think that lockdown would have to be in BKK where cases are higher? 

5 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

Probably they die due to very basic health care.

 

At least that’s my personal experience of thai government hospitals and I assume not everyone survives. The figure is also probably plucked from thin air, hard to see how figures for each province would be aggregated, even assuming they have them in the first place. I mean, this is the government who can’t collect on the thousands of parking tickets issued, no way they could track non paying farang.

Well, can't really expect the dead to pay, can you?

Services rendered were not satisfactory.

Dumb idea.. 

Collection? In cash at arrival. Imagine the lines to pay.. plus how much of the cash will disappear from collection point to the armored car?

Can't be collected as part of the ticket as Thai citizens would also pay

The lines on the land borders will be for hours. Do you think everyone crossing from Laos jnto Thailand will pay? 

Rather than promoting tourism, they are making it more of a hassle to come. The amount of the fee is not relevant - 10 USD won't matter, but it is the thought process

8 hours ago, zib said:

Of course it will be included in the ticket.

You need a ticket to drive across a land border?

4 hours ago, sanuk711 said:

"People in Thailand look set to be restricted in choice of vaccine"

 

Gosh...You mean the same as every other country in the world.....would you like to name a country that is given free vaccinations, & when you walk in they say....what one would you like? just tell us and we will get that one for you.

 

Any chance of putting a non negative headline about Thailand--Yup I agree they have fallen behind about the vaccinations---but this sort of headline is really Nit picking.

Very true.. same situation in the USA or in Europe at the beginning. My mom got Moderna, my dad Pfizer. They received their appointment slot and that was given on that day at that facility.

Only once there is no shortage of appointments and sites can people pick where to go to het a particular vaccine.

5 minutes ago, edwarda909 said:

It is a widely known fact who owns Siam Pharmaceutical Co.(SPO).  Unnamed sources report that 12 months ago, when the idea became accepted that vaccines would be necessary, the plan was to partner SPO with AstraZenaca and become the sole and local manufacturer of the vaccine. Thus all the eggs were put into 1 basket., The idea was to create a vaccine monopoly in Thailand. The profit motive is obvious. 

 Before AstraZanaca would approve of SPO producing its patented product,  SPO would need to bring it's manufacturing/laboratory facility up to the international standards maintained by all top-quality manufacturers.   SPO dragged its feet for several months before addressing this requirement. It was ONLY when the AstraZenaca began encountering safety problems, that the idea of looking at other vaccine suppliers came up. Thus, when Thailand began to enter negotiations to purchase quality vaccines, it was late to the party, by many months. The result is the two vaccines currently available are from China and soon to be Russia. In reality, the vast majority of Thais will reject the Russian vaccine. Resent reports indicate (1 case being Slovakia)  that the actual Sputnik vaccine shipped did not contain the same ingredients that were used in the experiments that were submitted to the New England Journal of Medicine and led to its approval.

The New England journal of Medicine has no power to approve vaccines.  

7 hours ago, Russell17au said:

Just remember that AstraZenica is being made here in Thailand and will be released in June. I know that there will be a lot of idiotic comments from many idiots on here but just remember that it does not matter where AstraZenica is made it is made following the same formula that is used in every country that makes it. The biggest problem with getting any vaccine is that every country is competing with every other country to get vaccine for their own country and there are not that many companies making the vaccine and having it registered and approved by each individual country for their use. It is easy to sit back and criticize but non of you could do any better.

Getting Astra Zeneca made in Korea or Thailand under licensing is similar to getting a VW manufactured in Mexico.

Same same but different

9 minutes ago, Clarkey611 said:

I would suggest that the reason for the drop in numbers is due to a large number of institutions offering tests. One of my neighbours is flying back to the UK on 09 May and cannot find a suitable hospital on the 7th to get a test. Can anyone provide some help with this please?

Sorry, but a high number of tests will not result in a drop in positive cases. Why would it?

Btw, the number of tests is still minimal compared to the total population.

8 hours ago, bobbin said:

No.. you haven't been following the situation, have you..

 

There is a vaccine production facility here in Thailand for the production of AstraZenica.

 

Backed by very influential people.

If the vaccine produced in Thailand is really AstraZenica (AS it is called in many posts) no wonder some don't want to get it. Who wants to buy a ROLIX instead of a ROLEX 

Maybe someone is trying to sell a knockoff vaccine here...

????????

6 hours ago, Dialemco said:

Mass vaccination programme of whole of Thailand needs tovbe carried out. Every effort should be made to manufacture AZ vaccine in sufficient quantities as soon as possible. Meantime no tourism should be encouraged domestic or international. 

Yes on vaccination but what has tourism to do with spreading covid? Recent outbreak started because of a party.  Most transmission jjn family setting. 

We can't keep everyone locked up forever

5 hours ago, Dialemco said:

Thailand should concentrate on a vaccination programme of the whole country starting with health workers and most vulnerable.  After sufficient That's have been vaccinated plans to reopen for Domestic and Foreign Tourism should be made restricting entertainment venues which most dangerous source of infection 

The most dangerous source of infections is the household, immediate family. Not a restaurant, store, hotel.