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Miami007
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Posts posted by Miami007
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6 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:
Flattening the curve, which is the purpose of a lockdown, slows mutations by reducing the number of mutations. Although time is a factor in emergence of mutations, having zillions of host bodies which are laboratories for mutations is more significant.
As for herd immunity, it should be reached via vaccinations, not naturally. Think of how herd immunity was reached for Polio, not the Black Death.
Extending the duration of a pandemic gives more time for mutations to occur.
the number of hosts is fixed (total population) - it does not really matter when they are infected. it just might make a difference when the mutation happens. If there is no vaccination to protect people during the time we are creating, the pandemic will just drag on longer.
the concept of flattening the curve was to buy time to get the medical facilities upgraded and maybe come up with an effective vaccine. The first was in our control, the second a hope and dream..
Most countries failed on the first part - we have the vaccine, but distribution is a mess in the majority of the world
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2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:The rumor du jour is that the government is going to extend quarantine for all incoming Farangs to 14 days again. There is a Reuters report that claims its a done deal. No fun.
And that will do absolutely zero to reduce the community spread that the country is experiencing at the moment - and which was started by local parties.
Not allowing vaccinated tourists into the country doesn't help the situation.
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Like in other countries:
Deaths mostly among the elderly or among people with underlying health conditions.
The main question is how could a party start this wave when there was no domestic Covid prior. You need at least 1 domestic carrier at this party- how did the person get infected?
Maybe the fact that only people with symptoms were tested in the past as positive results got everyone admitted into a hospital- even without being sick.
Now more testing = more cases. The same result in every country as the majority of carriers is not sick in the traditional sense.
Also shows that sadly lockdowns are not the answer to the problem - unless they are permanent and absolutely strict. Any easing will cause an outbreak eventually.
This virus will run its course until.. like the Spanish Flu lasted more than 2 years. As we are flattening the curve, Covid will last longer than the 3 years without a strong vaccination effort (see Israel, 0 deaths yesterday and cases dropping steadily as 61% are vaccinated)
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9 hours ago, dcsw53 said:
Is this because the new strain is more infectious, or a sign that the current measures are not working ? If the numbers rise next week again, that cannot be blamed on Songkran travel and shows a deeper problem. With the government's inability to source and accredit vaccines ( unless you are a hiso ) the signs aren't good.
Keep in mind that testing in the past was mostly for people who had symptoms (sick). Now more asymptomatic (healthy) people get tested.
Obviously, there will be more cases. It doesn't mean that they didn't exist before.
If every infected person without symptoms is being admitted, hospitals will be full quickly
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3 hours ago, Mung said:I really don't understand Thailand's logic throughout this entire fiasco. When the virus first emerged, we knew barely nothing about it apart from seeing images out of China where people were fainting and or dying in the streets, along with overcrowded hospitals. During this phase where we could have been dealing with something very serious indeed, Thailand kept everything open, allowing in 80,000 Wuhan residents throughout January and February, and only really started to take serious measures in April.
Then when we realise this virus (at the time) was only 3 times deadlier than the flu, they became super strict and crushed the Thai economy. Now there are more contagious variants, and potentially deadlier, vaccine resistant ones as of late, Thailand opens up again lol. It's as if they are doing the exact wrong thing at the exact wrong time.And still no infections when they allowed 80,000 Wuhan residents. For one year i have been asking why thailand escaped transmission in early 2020 while chinese infected Italy.. until today nobody has any answer.
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Funny that the Chinese expect the Thai population to be vaccinated before they visit. If China were to vaccinate its own people, why would they care whether anyone outside is vaccinated or not - they would be protected anyway. Or maybe they know something about how effective their vaccines are?
At least the Chinese agree with the rest of the world that quarantine has to end completely before they consider a holiday. If China says it, maybe people in the government will listen eventually. And then China would have to lift quarantine on return..
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4 hours ago, SupermarineS6B said:
Desperation........ Give it another six months and you'll be able to buy Phuket for twenty quid....... I would of thought they'd of figured out by now how much money you could make on testing everyone coming into Thailand, minimum quarantine just like Indonesia and Bobs your uncle, in to spend and enjoy...... This fiasco could go on for another two years easily, every time someone coughs then whole place is shut down....... Glad i'm in Istanbul, all the bars and restaurants are open and the little flowers over here could match anything in Thailand....... What a sad farcical situation that's been generated day by day..... 97 dead and willing to sacrifice the stability of the whole country, just shows you how contagious fear can be........ LMF...........
99 dead as of now in the last year.. the sky is falling.
277 traffic fatalities during 1 week.. that's just the risk of driving in Thailand.
Banning motorcycles would do more to save lives in the country than all the covid measures combined
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1 hour ago, chang1 said:
Not that simple. Climate and culture will be playing a much bigger role. Deaths are less but death rate is similar and in the UK Asians are more susceptible than farang. The UK strain is about to show how bad covid is.
You are doing the right thing by getting out before it gets too bad. The UK was bleak after Xmas but now things are really looking up but the other strains are not far away. I picked up 28 free lateral flow test kits no questions asked (except how many I wanted) this week. So along with the tests I get when visiting sites and my vaccine I should have a good chance to stop me unknowingly pass covid on to the rest of my family. The testing station where I got the tests from was empty whereas they used to have a que.
Once you are vaccinated, you are extremely unlikely to get infected and infect others.
66 million fully vaccinated in the USA and fewer than 6000 that got the virus. 99.99% protection is pretty good odds.
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4 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:I am not scared of facing Covid, we are all going to the same place in the end. I do not stay in, I do as told, wear a mask, social distance and wash hands regularly when out, and when out, I could be hit by a bus. These "experimental vaccines" are not 100%, no vaccines are, but vaccines that have been around are proven to be affective, these are not classified as vaccines, they are still in their experimental stages, and will continue to be until 2022-2023-2024 and then if the FDA deems the data is good will move them up a category to be vaccines.
The risk to me, is a risk that I cannot take for my families sake, "experimental vaccines" carry a risk, Covid is a risk, I see risks different to you, in other words, high/low, they are all risks, stock markets have a risk, but with your life, no thanks, what I am saying is there is no liability against anyone who produces it, sells it, administers it, now to me that's like playing Russian Roulette, e.g. take your chances, I won't follow everyone else, it's up to the individual to weigh up the risks and how they perceive it, one size doesn't fit all.
I remember when they were reporting people dying of these "experimental vaccines" and they were all saying, it's not the vaccines, they would have died anyway, they were old, it was a coincidence, well yeh sure right, then they started dropping like flies much younger, healthy doctors, nurses in the front line and others, and they kept saying, it's a coincidence, or they had some underlying conditions that we couldn't know about, but then someone brave enough came out and said hang on a second, blood clotting is being caused from these "experimental vaccines" and then we have those like yourself that goes on the defensive when someone thinks outside the square and doesn't go the way they want us too.
Give me a break, you want the "experimental vaccine" got get it, for me, like I said, I will look for alternatives until I am convinced that these "experimental vaccines" are safe enough for me to say jab me, until then, not a part of it, oh and don't worry about me infecting you, because even if you have the jab, you can still be infected, like me without the jab, the severity of the infection will depend on your immune system which can also be a risk, but I have one and if it comes to it being tested without the vaccine, well, that was my decision not to get an "experimental vaccine" at this point in time.
Trust is something I don't have when others are telling me it is the right thing to do when it comes to my life, suffice to say, I will stay in control of that for as long as I can thank you very much, I am no hero, I'm special ????
Where are young people dropping like flies from the vaccines? Do you have any sources for that claim?
In the USA more than 100 million people got at least 1 shot. No dead bodies piling up in the streets.
Moderna and Pfizer will get full approval soon. Do you feel better then as they no longer are experimental?
Looking at real life data in the UK and Israel, the vaccines are working in preventing new infections and deaths when Pfizer and AZ are being used.
Sinovac may not be as successful as we see in Chile but it could be a timing problem there as well.
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10 minutes ago, eyup said:
'"Chile sees Covid surge despite vaccination success" (BBC)"
Read the article fully rather than scaremongering!
"Critics have accused the Piñera government of getting caught up in triumphalism over the vaccine rollout and of having loosened coronavirus restrictions too fast."
Chile's borders had been closed - bar for a few exceptions - from March to November 2020. But after a strict lockdown had driven the rolling seven-day average down to 1,300 cases in November, the decision was taken to reopen them, including to international tourists.
Chileans were also given special holiday permits to travel more freely around the country during the southern hemisphere summer holidays after some experts argued it was important for people's mental health.
Restaurants, shops, and holiday resorts were opened up to kickstart the faltering economy."
"And while the vaccination rollout has indeed been fast, it only started in late December, with front-line health care workers, those over 90, and teachers first in line.
So the vast majority of Chileans would not yet have been vaccinated by the time they met up with relatives and friends for their summer holidays in January and February."
One other part that we often forget when looking at vaccination rates:
Chile has mostly used Sinovac, which does not have the same protection as Pfizer, Moderna or AZ.
Israel - mostly Pfizer and very few deaths and infections
UK mostly AZ and a similar situation with more than 45 % having at least one dose.
USA- mostly Pfizer and Moderna and deaths have been declining steadily since early January.
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9 hours ago, Petey11 said:
It's taken UK nearly four months and vaccine rollout in high numbers to contain this UK variant. Also saw I think it was a Turkish minister commenting on tourism in his country been asked why they were opening up to tourists in the current wave they have, his reply " We think this variant cannot be controlled by lockdowns alone, we need vaccination too, so what difference is letting tourists in when we have high infections". Take what you want from his comment.
Peak in the uk was in January. So it didn't take four months. Cases have been falling for 4 months and are now at low levels.
Vaccines work in Israel too - and the UK variant dominated there. The small country had several thousand cases per day in late 2020.. now barely 200. Per capita that would be about 1200 in Thailand
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6 hours ago, brucegoniners said:
They should have done this before the holiday!
Nobody wants a lockdown, but at least it will avoid further sickness and death!
Everyone needs to keep in mind that getting infected with covid doesn't mean that you will die. Currently, the mortality in Thailand is about 0.3%, which is very close to the newest estimates by WHO.
Initially, people talked about 4% mortality and 80% or more infection rate - people dropping like flies. All that didn't happen.
Thailand has fewer than 100 deaths and 35,000 infections - how many people died from pneumonia or flu on an annual basis in the country in 2018 or 2019? About 40,000.. nobody said one peep about it. Why did Thailand not see many infections in December 2019 and the first there months in 2020 when Chinese tourists came as usual? With the number of respiratory deaths in previous years, it could have been a similar virus and cross-immunity from Covid
Some of the measures are useless - malls closing at 9pm, no alcohol in restaurants - nothing to do to stop the spread. People will simply drink at home with friends.
Unless a country wants to close all contact with the outside world forever (and before they have a large outbreak), all these restrictions accomplish is a suppression of transmission on a temporary basis. Once society opens infections rise.
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4 hours ago, rabas said:
Asymptomatic cases test positive for the virus, that is the meaning of asymptomatic case, how they know.
Many, but not all asymptomatic cases eventually become symptomatic.
That is completely wrong.. Most asymptomatic cases of covid remain asymptomatic until the person has recovered.
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59 minutes ago, Antonymous said:
My sister (72yo) fell ill and started having difficulty breathing. She struggled on and collapsed after a few days and luckily someone in the family was able to call an ambulance. She ended up in hospital on a ventilator in an induced coma for many days and finally began a slow recovery and was woken up and taken off it. She is one of the lucky ones who has survived. This was a few months ago. She is OK, but has seriously compromised lungs and ongoing issues.
The hospital tested her no less than four times to get the right diagnosis. It was pneumonia, every time, NOT Covid. This was in the UK by the way.
I am amazed that there is no talk any more about the seriousness of flu and pneumonia which are deadly diseases and rampant in most countries in the world.
When someone in a condo gets flu and pneumonia do they sanitize the common areas and lifts? Do they start checking everyone's temperature on entrance? Do they make everyone in the building self isolate? Do citizens on Thailand demand that provinces are locked down immediately and businesses closed? Never to my knowledge.
Flu and pneumonia are real killers. Don't anyone try to tell me otherwise. People who don't die can be left with lifelong problems, just like Covid.
According to the latest WHO data published in 2018 Influenza and Pneumonia Deaths in Thailand reached 44,549 or 9.11% of total deaths.
https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/thailand-influenza-pneumonia
That’s 3,712 deaths PER MONTH in Thailand from flu and pneumonia.
In an entire YEAR there have been 97 deaths in Thailand attributed to Covid-19. In the two weeks since the start of this latest spike, statistically (we have no evidence because it is not reported) there have probably been around 1,856 DEATHS from flu and pneumonia in Thailand and goodness knows how many more cases of infections.
These 44,000 deaths in 2018 could also have been from a similar coronavirus. This would explain the relatively low infection in the country although Chinese tourists entered freely in the beginning of 2020.
Maybe there is some form of cross-immunity after similar CV was present in the region previously.
Also true that nobody cleaned condo lifts etc during flu season (I also had a classmate in school who passed away from the flu at 19).
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7 hours ago, GeorgeCross said:
getting way too close for comfort for me. i now know multiple people who either have it, are in isolation or sick and awaiting results. multiple positive kids at my son's school as well (hua hin)
this outbreak is much bigger than before
local hospitals are either refusing to test or trying to get people to pay with many refusing to do so. no beds anyway. one of the kids from school sent home positive and whole family been sick for days.
i suppose at least they are at home, which is good for them but its obvious the system is creaking already with only a few hundred cases.
If you personally know several people who have it, you must be a doctor or the figures are completely understated. There are fewer than active 8000 cases in the entire country.
Waiting for results does not count as being infected. Hopefully, nobody is isolated unless they are infected.
Not every sniffle is covid, most people with covid do not get sick at all. I know a few people who had covid and had no symptoms.
Life will continue .. 1300 infections in a country of more than 65 million. In Europe and the USA there are so many more infections and the world doesn't end.
The measures in place will not eradicate a virus- they suppress it for some time (to give society time to get PPE, hospital capacity, which was the original intent). Zero- covid is an illusion and requires you to stay home forever.
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Sure there are wealthy retirees who can spend USD 10k every month in Thailand.
If people have that amount of cash though, they probably want to travel and not sit in one place the entire year.
The attraction of SE Asia for most retired couples is either the weather or the cheap cost of living (compared to Europe or USA).
But they tried that with wealthy tourists a few months ago.
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A'll of the models generated throughout the pandemic have not worked out. We have been told many times that hospitals will run out of beds "within days" - really never came to fruition on a grand scale. Germany even reduced the number of hospital beds in 2020 (closed hospitals) and still doesn't see a shortage.
These models have the same chance to predict the winning Lotto numbers.
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11 hours ago, jackdd said:
Why would anybody get tested voluntarily and even pay money for it? I wouldn't risk getting locked in a hospital for two weeks.
In europe and the USA tests are free..
I wonder how many Thais can afford these charges. Or would want to pay, if there is no reason to get tested (in Austria you need a free test before seeing a hairdresser)?
One reason why cases are not higher I am sure.
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9 minutes ago, Bkktodd said:
The US spikes are because individual states follow different guidelines governed by republicans that want to open up fully vs democracts leaning to a measured opening. Ex Texas fully opened. Full stadiums with 30.000 people. There’s a spike in the making. Florida another sh@tshow with a mini trump as governor. Got both jabs with Pfizer, I mask up and still keep away from people .
I live in Miami...
There are no spikes in the USA in general, a slight increase in daily positive tests - at the same time, hospitalizations and deaths are falling.
Vaccines work as you can see in Israel and the UK. In the USA, we only have about 20% of the population fully vaccinated.. still a way to go. But as the at risk population is vaccinated in a high proportion, deaths will decline, which is the point.
Cases are meaningless as most people don't even feel that they are infected.
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17 minutes ago, robblok said:
Its not assuming its proven its about 1.7 times more contagious. So if there is someone not doing its homework its you. Also it has nothing to do with deathrate but with contagion.
Not proven, if you read the article you cited.
It may be up to 70% more infectious, the latest research puts it between 30 to 50%...
Let's not spread headline grabbing news, but present the data.
Also, UK cases are falling rapidly
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8 hours ago, Rhacsyn said:
Hi
Could it not have been brought in from Myanmar? Anyway it is here and needs controlling.
So strange that in the UK cases, deaths have been falling steadily for months. Even with the more contagious and mkre deadly variant.
Based on what we are seeing in Israel and the UK, vaccination seems to be the only answer to control it. Everything else is just a band-aid approach
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20 minutes ago, mrwebb8825 said:
ok, I'll get right back on that. Dork Especially since the brit vaccine is working so well on variants. ????
The UK vaccine seems to be working well against the virus in the UK as the numbers have been falling for months
Just take a minute to look it up online
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Deaths in the UK have been falling for months and are close to Summer 2020 levels.
That variant does not seem to be that deadly after all..
Just look at numbers before creating panic by spreading an assumption that this mutation is more deadly.
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39 minutes ago, sheldoncollier said:
The first was a ripple.. and far from a 3rd wave
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Thailand’s prime minister asked to reconsider another national lockdown
in Thailand News
Posted
Millions of lives lost? Less than 1% actual mortality rate - per WHO it is 0.23%. It will take 50 million in Thailand to reach herd immunity naturally. You can do the math