Miami007

14 hours ago, IamNoone88 said:

Has anyone actually explained to the Thai Gov't that the vaccine does not stop you catching or spreading Covid? The virus continues to shed in a vaccinated person. It just stops them from being very sick and lessens the chance of requiring hospitalisation. Singapore is identifying a significant number of infected people in quarantine on a daily basis - that remains their barrier to the general population. The bottomline is that vaccinated people can spread the virus to other vaccinated and non-vaccinated people who in turn shed to others. As for free flights - that is the least of concerns.

Actually,  recent research shows that vaccinated people are, in fact, protected against infection. Therefore, they can not infect others. The vaccine seems to be working like a traditional vaccine after all.

Look at the declining case, death and hospitalization numbers in Israel and the UK. UK has vaccinated about 40% of its population with at least 1 shot, EU is around 13%. Cases and deaths in UK are a fraction of France (or Poland, Germany, Holland, Italy). Other than vaccines, what else could be the reason?

4 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Hopefully all this complete and utter nonsense will be over by October !

Which year? 

6 hours ago, madmen said:

Is that a trick question? 600k Dead in USA. 

You bet they know better! 

what does the number of dead people from Covid have to do with the approval of the Moderna/ Pfizer etc vaccine?

Pfizer is approved in Thailand and the USA.  the question was why Moderna is approved in USA/ EU but not Thailand.

The government does not understand that reducing the quarantine to 7 days is NOT OPENING to tourists.

First, if there is a need for a quarantine to begin with, why reduce to 7 days?  that would be detrimental for public health

If there is no need for a quarantine, why have 7 days?

Countries will need to realize that quarantines are deal-breakers for the majority of tourists (different from returning residents, foreign home owners, snowbirds, workers moving to Thailand).  Typical tourists will not spend 7 days or 10 days or 14 days in quarantine before starting their vacation.

Tourism business will return when foreign tourists will be allowed to enter and travel throughout the country without quarantine (either restricted to vaccinated or negative tests).  All other Schemes/ plans etc have not worked so far and will not work.  I work in the hotel industry and it is very clear what consumers are willing to do for a vacation and what not.

Other destinations will open to vaccinated people - they will get the tourists.  

Phuket's plan has at least a chance to get some people after July - more than today, but still a fraction of 2019 (as China is not allowing their people to leave and return freely).  Personally, I would wait until July 5 to consider booking a trip to Phuket as many things can change between now and July 1.

7 hours ago, Pravda said:

So if a patient dies of covid vaccine but has underlying health conditions then he didn't die of covid vaccine.

 

But if a patient gets covid and has underlying health conditions he then died of covid?

 

Just wondering if that's how it works?

Pretty much

16 hours ago, GinBoy2 said:

I may have to go shoot myself if I read one more story predicting 40M this , 20M that...

 

At the end of the day, nobody really knows how travel will rebound, you might as well just break out the crystal ball.

 

Of course things will improve as countries get their vaccination programs rolled out, and people feel more comfortable traveling.

 

But how fast folks finances recover, and how much they want to spend on a long haul trip, I think is in the realms of pure speculation.

 

So try not to look years into the future, maybe just concentrate on a 6 months rolling forecast, which given all forecasts is destined to be wrong, but it'll be less wrong than trying to forecast 2 years hence

I completely agree that nobody has any idea what will happen. 

But American companies also want to have projections, forecasts etc.. some want rosy projections,  some pessimistic- but nobody wants to accept that we simply don't know 

8 hours ago, Moonlover said:

In the Bangkok Post they do list from which countries they came from, but not their nationality. If they were all Thais then they are not required to have a Covid test prior to flight. Other nationalities could have tested negative, but contracted the virus afterwards. The system is not foolproof, hence the continued need for quarantine.

Then why have the test, if there is a quarantine anyway

3 hours ago, mackayae said:

My cousin in Antigua, who is in his 40's, has had his jab, Astra Zeneca India. Thailand is certainly making a mess of this.

My dad (86 and with many health problems) got his first dose in Austria Monday (March 8). I got my second one today (March 11) in the USA. And I am about 30 years younger.

Europe is so far behind that Lufthansa is even considering flights to Moscow just to get vaccinated and fly back home. Thailand is not the only one lagging.

The USA only is where it is because people with experience are now in charge on all levels of the distribution chain. 

3 hours ago, Dialemco said:

Vaccination programme will not cover most of population this year so looks like no  substantial International tourism until 2022 earliest

There are studies now that the Pfizer vaccine also prevents asymptomatic infection. Moderna works on the same basis.

If no asymptomatic and no severe infection, this means that anyone with the vaccine can not pass it on - so no reason to not let them enter

12 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

Lovely. There is just a small detail that will need to be  taken care of - access to the Moderna vaccine. 

If only being considered for approval now, that suggests Thailand is at the end of a very long, long line of customers. 90% of all orders Moderna was capable of making for 2021 & 2022  were already pre-purchased by countries who provided money for  R&D and production   Thailand   was nowhere to be found last year when countries were preparing for vaccine.  If the EU already has made special order for an extra purchase of 150 million dose in 2021 and has option to buy an additional 150 million in 2022,  and USA has another 100 million big order in addition to 200 million in pipeline with the priority of all shipments  from USA, it is very unlikely  Thailand will get the vaccine in sufficient quantity.  Australia  has been trying to get and could not. Canada preordered and will be lucky if it gets a few million doses in 2021.  And even though Moderna is one of the few manufacturers to waive patent protection for poor countries, only a few countries have knowledge and equipment to make the vaccine.

So I think  maybe person who is excited for announcement is the type of person who was often missing bus for school and then work and was always being left behind. 

 

 

 

Actually, the approval of the vaccine in Thailand would mean that Thailand would recognize the vaccination completed in another country. This would be a benefit for the tourism industry as it would open the doors for many Americans and maybe Europeans.

Thailand has already accepted sinovac (China) and Astra (Europe) - again good for tourism 

21 minutes ago, robblok said:

But how can you compare 2 different countries with different populations with different manners and different density of population. Unless you have 2 totally the same situations you cant make the statement you make.

 

Anyway the whole idea about lockdown is to slow down the spread of the virus so it wont overwhelm the hospitals. Quite a few countries (i know of the Netherlands and Uk) almost ran out of ICU beds. If they had not locked down death toll would be far higher as the hospitals could not cope.

 

Also people leave out the people that died in non lockdown countries because the hospitals could not do their normal operation (also something that happens when the hospitals are overworked). So its really hard to support your claims.

 

There were places in the US where they had to had mobile morgues a clear sign of a failed lockdown or else deaths would be more spread and less.

I thought that you had compared cases and deaths between Australia and the USA. I would agree that these comparisons are misleading 

My brother in law is head of a department in a large hospital.. they were empty in Spring, very manageable during second wave in November / December. 

Field hospitals in New York City had no patients during the April 2020 surge.

Mobile morgue made for captivating TV.. overall, numbers do not support the hype. Even in USA covid is 10% of all deaths,  in Europe excess mortality is minimal in many countries

20 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Yet the UK manufacturer is selling the vaccine at $5 a shot (OK $7.50 to South Africa).

Why can't the Thai hospitals buy it at the open market rate?

They have to pay that much or they will go to the back of the line. Astra Zeneca is not delivering the contracted amounts to the EU.. but for $40, I am sure Thailand could get some.

Surprised it took 3 months for bidding for vaccines to start

13 hours ago, madmen said:

Snowbirds that stay 3 to 6months 

and migrate south during the winter in the northern hemisphere.  that train left for 2021...

No Australians will come either, because they can not get back home easily...

So, who is left for 2021

Backpacker (students) who don't have the cash to afford a quarantine hotel

Foreigners who have family in Thailand and want to return

Foreigners who want to retire in Thailand and stay there

no actual tourism going on 

12 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

It's a normal yellow book and has been around for decades. I've had the exact same one for about 25 years. 

 

It is needed to show proof of yellow fever and flu vaccinations to enter most countries in West Africa. 

These books disappeared in Europe. I had one when I was a kid.

In the USA, I received a CDC card showing the covid vaccine. Looks very different from the Thai version and I am sure that this will not get me past immigration in BKK.

30 minutes ago, Phaser said:

So Sinovac is approved but Moderna, Pfizer and now Johnson & Johnson are not - and AstraZeneca is not approved in the USA, Germany, Austria, Switzerland and a host of other nations but is the vaccine of choice for Thailand. 

Astra Zeneca is approved in Austria for people under 65. Same in Germany. Reason is that not enough people over 65 were in the tests - nothing to do with any bad reactions in older people.

AZ  has not applied for approval in the USA and we are more or less covered with 3 vaccines - 1 being a 1 dose vaccine.

These comments are fun to read.. the AZ vaccine came from Korea - nothing the Brits did to screw it up. Prayuth is too old for the Chinese vaccine (Actually, in most of the EU he would be too old for AZ)

Another poster said to wait for Pfizer and Moderna. On another board a woman claimed that all the animals used during the test died between 6 months and 1 year after the test. It appears 40 million Americans (including me) will pass away in the next 12 months lol...

Overall, distribution is a mess with the exception of Israel. The UK may be on to something by giving as many first shots as possible rather than giving second doses. Their cases are dropping faster than in many other countries in the West. 

10 hours ago, Jonathan Swift said:

I'm glad you feel bad, and not badly. Seems you know the difference, A+ in English

sorry - but you should google it before correcting another poster's grammar 

Feel bad is the grammatically correct version when describing that you don't feel well physically or emotionally. "Feel," like all other sense verbs, can double as an action verb or a "linking verb," where it connects the subject with a clause describing the subject.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/do-you-feel-bad-or-feel-badly#:~:text=Feel bad is the grammatically,a clause describing the subject.

8 minutes ago, fgmr said:

Ease up on insurance and quarantine requirements and you will be surprised at the numbers wanting out of lockdown in UK. 

 

Before covid there were no insurance and quarantine requirements. Still, UK topped out at 1 million in 12 months.

There is no way that 6 million would come in 10 months - even if everyone in the UK can afford a holiday economically.

As another poster had pointed out - this number means 20,000 arrivals per day - every day for 10 months. Or more than 60 full flights from the UK daily. That is simply not realistic.  

If they reach 800,000 visitors from the UK,, I would be positively surprised

51 minutes ago, Sujo said:

Booze and women. If both are cheap then tourists are high. If not, then they go for where it is.

 

Thailand is starting to price itself out of the market. What saves it is that a lot of flights use it as a stopover to other places like from oz to europe so people use it for a few days layover.

Many tourists in France, Spain, UK or USA - are you saying that women and drinks are cheap in these countries?

You are looking at a small segment of travelers only, FYI, therefore families, married couples and single women who may not be that attracted by bars and cheap entertainment

Pre-Covid about 1 million from UK and 11 million from China.

Pre-Covid 6 million from the UK?? More than half of what China sent during boom times.

Sure, absolutely...

Do they get a bonus for the most outlandish projection?

45 minutes ago, sqwakvfr said:

Doubt Quarantine can be eliminated even with vaccinated tourists.  At present the approved vaccines have an efficacy of over 90 percent but the true numbers will be probably less.  At least for this year I see a shorter quarantine.  Currently those in Quarantine in Thailand get their first Covid 19 Test at Day 5.  The results come back on day 6 and those who are negative are allowed to leave their rooms on day 7. The most realistic quarantine policy for future is 7 days with a Covid 19 test at day 5 or 6.  Those who are negaitve then should be "freed".  

No significant number of tourists then - economy RIP