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swissie

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Everything posted by swissie

  1. Must add: This is a Thai to Thai constellation. Not necessarily applicable to Farang/Thai circumstances.
  2. ANY "repo-admistrator" of ANY bank can give you a deal. a) Show interest by contacting them frequently (establish personal contact). b) Show, that you have the CASH to close the deal quickly. c) Thats all it takes. Banks want to get rid of "repos".
  3. Officially yes. BTW, every major Thai Bank has a "repo-section", as part of their web-site. According to my step daughter (working for a Thai Bank), the "book value" is as flexible as a rubber band. A case in point: An interested buyer with cash in his hand finds the price of the "repo" too high. The Bank then finds out that a recent hailstorm has caused extensive damage to the roof, therefore the "book value" of the object must be lowered accordingly. Buyer and Bank both happy. Thai legislation is as firm as anywhere else according to the letter of the law. This until the Thai legislative "rubber band" comes into play.
  4. The magic of OPM (other peoples money). A good part of the world economy is based on it. More specific: One can buy 10 tonnes of Copper with a downpayment of 10%. Subject to a "margin-call" or forced liquidation if the price drops 10%. Not so in real-estate. If one keeps up with morgage payments, the Bank will not issue a "margin-call". = Market "downturns" can be outlasted as opposed to ones Copper position. As an example. Therefore, no other segment of the investement universe has offered more secure ways to profit from "other peoples money" than the real-estate sector. And: Globally, real estate has become more pricy, no matter where you look. Even in Eastern Timbuktu. Thailand/Tropics: The climate does much harm to buildings. Due to construction standarts, buildings in Thailand age faster than European women. Something to be considered. In the olden days our Grandfathers told us "Go West to make your fortune". They should have said: "Buy some real-estate somewhere and hold on to it" instead. Preferrably in Monaco, when it was a fishing village. Or Pattaya when it was a fishing village.
  5. WINE, WOMAN AND SONG as an alternative. Looking back at my career as an investor. Since 1970. With 10% of my money I traded, the rest I invested Warren Buffet style. The latter turned out OK., Now at 72, "long-term" investing becomes questionable, as I don't have too much "long-term" left for myself. The last time I found true "opportunities" was after the crash of 2007/08. Today "everything" is high, flirting with the upper end of the expectational envelope. I have no children, my inheritance will go to some friends, old geezers like myself. Therefore, the temptation to invest in WINE, WOMEN AND SONG as an alternative becomes stronger by the day. ---------------------------------------------------- PS: The term "expectational envelope" I have created. In the future, economists will use the term "swissies expectatorial envelope" frequently in TV shows. Needless to say, I secured copyrights already.
  6. Most definitely. Go around ringing doorbells. Half of the names are Spanish. Go around and listen to people. Half of them do not *roll* the R anymore like the original "immigrants" from Europe did The "spanish R" sounds like a machine gun in operation. Even in the second generation. Do you think that all those immigrants, that can't roll the "R" properly, will be willing to play "the second fiddle" in the US for the next 5 generations?
  7. I have read the above with interest. Amazingly, few Farang investors will ever get the chance of reading this. The urge to invest something in Thailand would be greatly diminished. (the obstacles for "safe investing" in Thailand for a Farang are too numerous to mention here). For starters: An investemnt in a country where the currency is not "freely convertible" represents a fundamental weakness of an Economy.
  8. Few really wealthy Farangs settle in Thailand permanently. Mostly elderly Farangs that have realised that the cost of living in Thailand is lower than in their home country. The British would call it "lower class citizens". Of course they bring along their upbringing, their mode of communication and the way one behaves in public. To Thais, this is often perceived as "rough and uncivilised behavor". Accepted 20 years ago as the Farangs wallet was the only deciding factor. But not anymore. The general "discruntlement" of Farangs may find it's roots in the fact that "Female Companionship" costs 200% more than 20 years ago. In the meantime, nobody believes that the Thai Temples are the reason to settle in Thailand. PS: By citing "lower-class" is not limited to the UK, as every country has it's "lower-classes".
  9. Next time around: Any presidential candidate in the futue will have to nominate a vice president with hispanic roots. As a pre-requisite for success.
  10. The Democrats wanted an additional 5% of "the black vote".
  11. Ahhh, the "swing states" and the "voting district hokus pokus" etc etc. I have tried to explain the "voting mechanism" in the US to Europeans. Nobody understands it. Still based on "Electorates" arriving by pony-express in Washington D.C.
  12. I used to live in the US for almost 20 years. Current polls show, that it will be a close race, meaning that about 50% of voters will vote for Trump (otherwise it could not be called "a close race").
  13. I venture to say that I know more about them than the average American voter. No, I don't like Trump at all. The problem is that close to 50% of American voters like Trump. The rest of the world wonders "How is this possible". Americans must be totally "fed-up" by the political/financial elte that has governed them since WW2. Wanting to extort the Devil by the Beelzebub.
  14. Finally: The Democrats have failed to "build-up" a charismatic (populistic) antidote to Trump. Not enough time left to rectify this. The Democrats have been committing political suizide for years.
  15. "The Bull is well supported by earnings" I hear. Major players are down to 4% cash. Where does the "fuel" come from to keep the party going? Mostly overlooked: The Chinese "Locomotive" is having serious problems, with global ramifications
  16. Just received an alarming phone call from my clairvoyant Romanian gypsie lady this morning: "Institutonal Investors are only sitting on 4% of cash". They are fully invested, where does the fuel come from to support the party"? Got me thingking, as all industrial commodities have failed to rally after a significant decline before. The worst "bull trap" in years. Those commodities hovering slightly above major support lines, if broken on the downside, stock markets will not remain "unaffected".
  17. I never said that buying a condo or a bar today is a good investment. Unless the Thai Government realises that an increasing number of wealthy Chinese Nationals are in desperate need to "shelter their money". Adjusting legislation accordingly, opening certain "floodgates". In such a case there might evolve a drastic undersupply of condos in Pattaya.
  18. It was a small investement, keeping me busy and yielding 35% annually for almost 5 years. Believe it or not. I am not going to elaborate any further, concerning "Thai Work permits". If you are on the "radar" of the local officialdom, you are on the radar, rectifiable only by exchanging brown enveloppes. I refused to be pert of this game.
  19. Every time some economies tried to "self-clean" (eradicating exesses) the central banks turned into Fire Brigades, supplying water (liquidity). On every such occasion, adding to "the national dept". In some countries, Bond holders/buyers are starting to use their pocket calculators. In short: While the central banks still will act as the Fire Brigade, bond buyers will increasingly ask for a higher price for their water (interest). Accelerating the upward spiral of an ever increasing National Debt further. The final word will have the Bond-Buyers and not the central banks. If the central banks should compensate the "bond-buyers-strike" by printing more money, the result is inevitable: Massive inflation. Finally: The "magic-potion" of the central banks over the last 70 years is not endlessly repeatable. Because to pay the "fire brigade" will become unaffordable. Cheaper to let the house burn down than to pay the fire brigade. Or simplyfied: Let the world economy "sweat-out" the accumulated excesses of the last 70 years. Long overdue, there will be no "soft landing".
  20. Shortly before the end of his presidency, Eisenhower remarked that after this war, there is now a military/economical complex in existance, that will not go away anymore. But: Without this US military/economical complex, Eureopeans would all speak Russian as a second language in the 2nd generation.
  21. Holy smoke, diden't know that clocks are still at 4. Must be exports as my swiss friends wear 20$ watches, made in China. PS: Private Banking still available, but must disclose "where the money comes from", everything over 10'000 CHF. If I were "a foreighner" wanting to hide some money, Switzerland would be the last place I would choose. Much better the British Channel Islands, Cayman Islands, the Bahamas, Panama etc etc etc. The list is long. Something like a Norwegian "smorgasboard". Switzerland no more part of the "smorgasboard".
  22. Oh no, not again. There is a sub-forum "marriage and divorce". I find that the OP should read the posts of this sub-forum carefully. Very educational. A must for everyone contemplating any "linkage" with any Thai National.
  23. The debate usually stops, when an individual realises that he can not afford to live in Palm Springs. Folks, seeking cheap living in combination with a high cultural level should not look for a domicile in Alabama or Gary Indiana. Many famous Indian Gurus have proclaimed that in old age one must keep it's feet on the ground, as to "soar like an eagle is the privilege of the youth of the world". For you and me, our "soaring days" are over. Only remedy: Adjust in a fast changing world. Or better: Stay in Thailand.
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