swissie

I have tried to make sense of positive or negative correlations for the last 500 years. In the meantime, I shy away from any correlations, like the devil shying away from Holy Water. Conclusion: They work for a while, then stop working, until they start to work again. Unpredictable. I am polishing my cristal ball with more vigor than ever before.

Hmmm! Only kept my Bank Records for the last 7 years. Diden't think anything older would ever be of relevance to anyone. What now?

Quote: "You can fool a few foreigners, but not your own people, not forever, no frigging way!" - Our "western soldiers" are very well informed. They know more than anyone else, how "undersupplyed" (in any way) they are. Do you really think, this social media/party generation will lay down their young life for some "fatherland" once more. Cannon fodder, once more? Or fight for a political/economical system that they don't understand anymore? It might well be, that especially the "western soldiers" might find a thread going by "where to go as a European fugitive" might find much interest when the time should come.

The possibilities to invest in different kinds of bonds is amazing. I call it the Bond-Zoo. US treasuries still very popular. Would like to remind that in the meantime, compared to GDP, the US is at 125%. To pay for existing dept (interest) is over 10% of the budget. The US treasury borrows 6 million Dollars per minute. The upcoming "infra structure projects" will cost another 7 billion. Definitely catapulting the US into the club of highly indepted nations (Italy, France). Ergo: Even if US inflation should drop back to pre-pandemic levels, investors may find a "net risk-premium" of 3% as a minimum. In other words: No more "free money" for the US.

How to stop a bad guy with a gun? = With a good guy with a gun! After 20 years of "underfunding" it's armies, Europe has no more enough "good guys with a gun" left. All it takes is a President Trump once more. In such a case, the contributions to this thread will explode as it becomes "a real issue". Even for those that think "this can never happen".

Unmarreied. Less than 50K. Does that mean that I can ignore (not do) the FBAR filings?

Rats! A Russian Occupation will likely bring a halt to pension-money transfers to some European "refugees". No matter where they are. Even in Thailand. Respect: You are the only one that has (so far) adressed the subject in connection with the headline.

This topic should be moved to "The Lounge". Before it ends up somewhere in the "dark-net".

For the first time since 2006 I have to ask the moderators to close a thread of mine. Current posters staunchly refuse to comment on the headline of this post, instead trying to turn this into another Ukrainian/Russian ping pong game. I would therefore suggest, that unless posters focus in on the "Headline" of this post, this thread should be closed, with my approval.

Interesting. How do you bring this in connection with this thread?

Again, please back on topic.

By openly disclosed figures, issued by defense ministeries, German Defence Minister (Mr. Pistorius) has confirmed this dismal situation on public TV a few days ago.

Please, back on topic. What (and where) if we should end up as Western European "Fugitives"?

Yes, now I remember. Thanks.

Adressing US guys. For US citizens, living outside the US, some annual "asset-reporting" has to be filed. (how much money is in your foreighn Bank Account etc etc). Forgot where to report this, it's a 4 letter abbreviation but even that I can't remember. Anyone?

Currently the standing Army of Germany consists of around 100'000 soldiers. The ratio in other European countries is about the same. Compared to Russian capabilities, western Europe is basically "defensless".

Lets's suppose: Putins hunger is not satisfied by the Ukraine and marches on into "western Europe", turning you into a "Fugitive". Where outside of the EU would you go? US, Canada, Australia is "out", as only highly skilled labor and/or wealthy persons will find entry originating from Europe. Where would you go?

Very valuable information. Thanks. May this spread among Farangs, heading for the Philippines.

As I gather, the OP has lived in Pattaya for a long time. Now finally discovering the "inner workings" of Pattaya? Remembering the mid 90ties, in soy post office, on the first floor of every bar, oral sex was administered while sipping a beer. For 300 BHT. The OP would have been "super discusted".

By all means, keep us posted. Does your handle "the fugitive" has anything to do with all of this?

Only remedy: Pre-marriadal agreements. Setteling matters in case of divorce. Remarkably: Single since 10 years. Have met several women, willing to marry me. But as soon as I mentioned some pre-marriadal agreements, their desire to marry me has evaporated quickly. Especially when I stipulated that "My money is my money and your money is your money". All said. Not to worry, 20 years from now (at least in "the west") marriages without pre- marriage agreements will not be officially approved.

Unless the law has changed: It is easy to marry a Philippine female. But the same law makes it impossible to divorce (Catholizism in it's purest form). Ergo: Think twice boys.

Clearly, OP has disclosed something to the lady, that he shoulden't have disclosed in the first place. With this knowledge she is practising "Extortion". As simple as that. Recommendation: If you have murdered your mother in law in the home country, of have been operating a Opium-Den in Thailand, never tell something like that to your Thai Girlfriend. Over.

During my time in the US, I always admired the fact, that low income people were allowed to live in so called "Mobile Home Parks", with a little garden in front. (Never available in Europe for long-term residents). Now the space rent is 500/month? Those figures are related to "Cities" (smaller or bigger), But I bet, that even today I could park my travel trailer in the middle of Kansas with a farmer for very little money, especially if I would feed the pigs twice a day and look after the chicken. Only drawback: Not much spare-time Hoopla-Hoopla and the nearest hospital 100 miles away. PS: What's the space rent in Quarzsite, Arizona, these days?

IMO: Your portfolio-mix is just fine. A 3 fund index fund portfolio is over-diversification, I find. (Too many potential "laggards" stifeling the potentional "high flyers"). Talking about Diversification: How about adding some commodities to the mix, especially now, that some Gurus see a future "Bull Cycle" in Industrial Materials just around the corner (after those materials have already increased remarkably= the usual). The problem: Most commodities are traded via futures markets. Most of the time, most markets are in a "Contago" situation. Causing constantly "roll-over" losses. In the end, it's called the "carrying-charge". This makes long-term investing in commodities "investor- unfriendly". To take a look at "financing cost", look here (only during trading hours available): https://www.oanda.com/uk-en/trading/financing-costs/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTXpSbE1UVTFOV1prTkRJMSIsInQiOiJ5RThTZWpJbDVSU3J5MDBwdGg5MmVBa2toUjFydjRPbTQ3VWNFbG9iQ1ZvR0FMekE5OWlZcElzOW5VTWZXajJnK3JGYU1BanRkMzQ3Q1lyWkF0cjFkYm9YYmpCUmhCQWdTbkNSTE1iTFJ5aEhJcUoyaG5wYjVWK0VscURpUE1iUCJ9 How to avoid those costs: Store your Gold under the mattress, store your 50 tons of Copper in your cellar, next to your collection of single malt whyskey. That is also a commodity. The only "carrying charge" would be some insurance, especially if you have a family member that spends a lot of time in the cellar.