RayC

I'm not sure David Davis knew what country he was in or what day of the week it was let alone anything else! https://qz.com/1032136/how-brexit-negotiations-are-going-in-one-photo

Some interesting points. I'll throw something else into the mix: Would France and Germany want a rejoining UK to adopt the Euro? Between them they effectively run the ECB and set monetary policy in the Eurozone. If the UK adopted the Euro, the UK government would obviously want us to have a strong say in matters Would the French and Germans want to see their influence diluted? (I know that this is all hypothetical)

I agree with all of that apart from the implication that the EU was somehow forcing us to remain ("Nigel pleading with the EU in Brussels to allow us to leave"). Having served Article 50, the UK would have ceased to be a member of the EU after two years if no agreement and/or request for an extension had been made. How the 'Irish question' and the UK's ongoing commitments to the EU (financial and otherwise) would have been sorted out if that had occurred is anyone's guess, but I'd have bet my bottom dollar it would have been even more chaotic and messy. I think that Candide has hit the nail on the head: One reason why successive UK governments made such a pig's ear of Brexit is that there was no particular project apart from leaving. Whether there is/ was a better way to do Brexit is highly debatable. Those shouting loudest such as the Flat Earthers (ERG) and Farage don't seem to offer much in the way of concrete proposals.

Then applying the same rationale, it is impossible for you to say that a tougher stance during the negotiations would have lead to a more favourable outcome for the UK.

So that's it? No matter if it becomes blindingly obvious that Brexit has made the country poorer - in every sense of the word - and/or opinion polls were to show, say, 70%+ support for rejoining, there's no going back? I accept that a decision was made to leave and that has happened. However, in a democracy, I am perfectly at liberty to voice my opinion that I believe the decision to have damaged the country, and that the sooner we try to undo that damage (by rejoining) the better. I have tried to support the decision to leave. I sometimes close my eyes and wish really, really hard that the US would sign a trade deal with us, and that the financial 'savings' in EU contributions will help improve services and infrastructure in the country. So far my efforts have been in vain. Must be my fault, I'm probably not praying long or hard enough

An alternative premise is that the negotiations conducted by May's government were not a failure. The deal she got was as good as it could have been, given the UK started in a weak negotiating position. Can you give some specific examples of what the UK could have done differently during the negotiations, and how that would have lead to a more favourable outcome?

Nations aspiring to become EU members do not have to adopt the Euro from Day 1, merely commit to adopting it at some point. Therefore, the fact that we would be rejoining makes no difference; the same criteria for adopting the Euro apply to both existing and aspiring EU member states, namely: 1) Price stability 2) Sound and sustainable public finances 3) Exchange rate stability 4) Long-term interest rates. I don't know which criterion(ia) Sweden fails to meet, but there appears plenty of scope for the a rejoining UK to 'fail' as well.

You either didn't read or didn't understand this paragraph in my original post. "(Please read the post to which I am replying before making any 'opinion not fact', 'predict the future', etc. replies?)" Some "interesting" logic applied.

Why?

You also didn't supply any evidence to support your conviction that the pound would suffer if the UK applied to rejoin the EU. In fact, if the most recent countries to accede to the EU e.g. Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, etc are anything to go by, then then the only conclusion is that there is no clear pattern (Data is available on the ECB website).

Maybe but maybe not. Imo if the only/ major stumbling block to the UK rejoining was the adoption of the Euro then I think that the 'Swedish compromise' would come into play. I don't think many EU countries are dragging their feet over adopting the Euro, most seem quite happy to do so. With the exception of those who haven't, most do not meet the conditions for doing so. In the case of Hungary, the EU is probably happy that they don't; most would probably prefer that they simply left the EU. All this is, of course, my opinion. The opt-outs are usually the result of horse-trading around the signing of new Treaties. For example, Major refused to sign the Maastricht Treaty unless the UK had an opt-out on the Social chapter.

Pure supposition with no evidence to support this view. The last country to adopt the Euro was Croatia at the beginning of this year. Prior to that the Kuna had traded within a relatively narrow range against the Euro for 10+ years.

Actually I'm trying to give you a bit of credit. Those who hold the 'They won't let us leave' view generally prescribe to the ridiculous notion that the UK could have remained a member of the Single Market and Customs Union, whilst at the same time, being free of the rules, regulations, processes and procedures governing these entities and, moreover, being free of any financial commitment. By not accepting these proposals, the EU was being unreasonable and therefore trying to prevent the UK from leaving the EU. If that's your view then don't bother replying. However, if you feel that's not the case - and the EU was somehow trying to stop the UK leaving in another way - then I'd be interested to know your thoughts.

The nightmare team of Farage and Johnson????: Now that really would be the time to switch off the lights and leave.

Unlikely is the short answer.

But as a recent senior bureaucrat and someone who is still vocal on EU matters, it's not unreasonable to assume that he might be indicative of the view in 'Brussels'.

How so?

If the UK rejoins the EU the Pound will be dead. Be careful what you wish for..... That is debatable. Yes, the UK would need to commit to joining the Euro. However, whether and when that would actually happen is another matter: Sweden has been obligated to join the Euro since the mid-90s but shows little sign of doing so.

When the UK decides to rejoin the EU, the pound will appreciate overnight by 10+% because of the boost to the economy brought about by, once again, being a part of the world's largest trading bloc. The pound will then increase to an all-time high vis-a-vis the baht within 6 months. (Please read the post to which I am replying before making any 'opinion not fact', 'predict the future', etc. replies?)

I think that it is very unfair of you to moke me. I inserted "likely" into the sentence to avoid incurring the wrath of (some of) your fellow Brexiters. You know how much they dislike predictions of the future and/or definite statements. Surely you haven't forgotten that Brexit is a seemingly endless process?????

Interesting article. Thanks for posting. Imo the author is too pessimistic. There would, undoubtedly, be issues in rejoining but the bottom line is that it would be in both parties' interests. The UK could start to repair the damage done to its' economy, reputation and international standing and the EU regains the benefits of having what is still - despite the damage down - the biggest European power currently outside the bloc (and, yes, the addition of a likely net contributor to the EU budget helps as well).

Any idea when they will come into view?

So when would be a suitable time to make a judgement? What criteria would you suggest using?

That might be true based on the previous two quarters but the difference in the respective growth rates is marginal. It may also be true that Brexit has had a negative effect on the EU economy, although I don't see that as a reason for celebration. It appears that Barnier's prediction that there are no winners from Brexit was quite perceptive. However, what is more telling is the performance of the EU and UK since Brexit and since the referendum. By most criteria, the UK has been harder hit. Didn't you Brexiters tell us remainers that they (the EU) need us (the UK) more than we need them. The medium-term data seems to indicate the opposite. https://www.newstatesman.com/chart-of-the-day/2022/06/uk-economy-fallen-behind-eu-since-brexit https://www.cer.eu/insights/cost-brexit-june-2022 https://www.civilservant.org.uk/eu-uk_economy_after_brexit_referendum.html

Being a non-Brit should not prevent you from having an opinion about Brexit. However, being unfamiliar with the facts does prevent you from having an informed opinion on the matter.