RayC

France, Germany and the US all recorded their highest levels of GDP in 2023 and the GDP figures for these countries over the period 1960 - 2023 all show an upward trend, so I don't understand what point you are trying to make? Apparently membership of CPTTP, while welcome, will not wipe out the "paltry" £3bn quoted in the OP, as it will only add £2 billion (0.08%) annually over the long run to UK GDP (Source: UK government impact assessment). This figure pales into insignificance against the estimated cost of Brexit to the UK economy detailed in the OBR and numerous other reports. Nothing in your post negates the premise that Brexit has - and continues to be - a huge cost to the UK economy.

You're right. £3bn is peanuts in the big scheme of things. I wonder what that figure relates to given that estimates of the cost of Brexit to the UK economy range from 2-5% of GDP? (One of many reports) https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/the-economy-forecast/brexit-analysis/#assumptions

There you go https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_3676

Please point out what is factually incorrect about stating that immigration to the UK was lower when we were a member of the EU compared to the situation today when we are outside the bloc? It's a fact which you are seemingly unable to accept, presumably because it doesn't fit your narrative. If you spend less time posting angry, aggressive and confrontational rhetoric - and replying in a similar manner when challenged - imo you shouldn't be surprised when someone replies in kind. If you want to engage in civilised, polite discussion, you will find that I will reciprocate. Just an idea; what tone you adopt is, of course, entirely up to you🕊️

Please don't attribute statements to me which I didn't make. Nowhere did I state that Reform winning the council election in St. Helens had nothing to do with Farage. Yes there is. I have not stated or suggested otherwise anywhere. In any event, it has no bearing on my point. What does that actually mean? You care to tell me what this Brit culture to which we'll be returning will look like? Standing terraces at football matches? Fish'n'chips wrapped in newspaper? Punks in the King's Road? The London Docks reopening? Reform will fix the immigration 'problem'. That's what the Tories said and what Labour are promising. Forgive my skepticism. Apart from the word 'Reform', you could have told me that those statements were lifted from any UK party manifesto and I would have believed you. As I said in the previous paragraph, forgive my skepticism. It's a truism to say that the voters of St. Helens voted for Farage/ Reform because they liked what they heard. They were hardly likely to vote for a party/ individual where they didn't like what they were being told! And that's all well and good but to return to my original point: In no way does any of that prove that/explain why a video of a police raid, which took place in Bethnel Green, London, should have relevance to the outcome of a council by-election in a ward in St. Helens, Lancashire, a town some 200 miles away, even if - unlikely as it is - the voters actually saw the video in question.

👍 Welcome. Try to ignore the trolls.

Which is why I said that political instability is 'rarely' a good thing, rather than 'never'. As Newbee2022 points out the key word is 'If'. If the election leads to a strong, stable coalition government forming then it will be beneficial. Unfortunately, there must be severe doubts about the prospect of that outcome. I agree that a politically unstable Germany (and France) is a major problem for the EU; something I assume you are pleased about?

I believe so. Lot of data about EU migration to the UK in the attached link. https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/eu-migration-to-and-from-the-uk/#:~:text=In the year ending March,70% from 2016 to 2022.

You forgot the EU. And there we have it. Always someone else's fault. No accountability or responsibility accepted by Brexiters for the failure of Brexit to date. It was ever thus.

So during a discussion about a specific issue i.e. a council by-election in NW England you post a seemingly unrelated video about a police raid in London which you feel might be of interest to readers, and which might lead readers to somehow find some correlation between the two events. If you say so.

Which rather begs the question why you felt the need to post those links in the first place, if it wasn't to speculate that there is a casual link between the events described? As a Brit, I do have a horse in the race. I don't like Farage. The fact that Reform won the by-election in question is beyond doubt. Have a nice day (genuine wish).

There is no issue and I am not confusing anything. As an individual, you are obviously perfectly entitled "to have a problem with freedom of movement", but the fact still remains that immigration to the UK today is higher than it was when the UK was in the EU. Perhaps one reason for this is that many of the seasonal/ part-time jobs were filled by workers from the EU, who had no desire to 'immigrate' to the UK permanently but were happy to work here on a temporary, transient basis. This arrangement was beneficial for both the employer and the worker and was an example of the free market 'invisible hand' at work. These are possibilities that those who are often described as 'right wing' seem unable to grasp.

Thanks. I do try to stick to the facts.

No obvious problem. Applying xenophobia in its' broadest sense as you have can take many forms. You accuse the EU of being xenophobic because it does not offer the same rights of access to non-EU workers as it does to EU workers. If that is labelled xenophobic then what about the following: As the UK is now part of CPTTP, the majority of goods from Chile will enter the UK tariff-free, while those from India, which is not part of CPTTP, will attract tariffs of up to 12%. Isn't that just as much a form of xenophobia? I don't know why you were expecting freedom of movement to be part of the CPTTP? It's not immediately apparent how such an arrangement would benefit either the UK or existing CPTTP members such as, say, Brunei.

"For the first time ever there are seven million migrant workers in Britain's job market. Figures released by the ONS this morning show that more than one in five jobs in Britain is now filled by someone born overseas – despite a fall in EU workers since Brexit." Perhaps news outlets such as The Spectator are reporting falsely?

Ho ho ho. Merry Xmas. I'll refresh your memory: You took umbrage and resorted to insults as a result of me having the audacity to point out the fact that immigration to the UK was lower when we were in the EU with uncontrolled immigration from 27 nations, than it is now when we have complete control over our immigration policy. EU freedom of movement, xenophobic? You might as well argue that all nations are therefore xenophobic given that no nation has the same trade arrangements with each and every one of its' partners.

Where have I lost this argument? By pointing out the fact that immigration was lower when we were in the EU? As for race baiting. Rich coming from a bloke who endlessly carps on about the problems caused by immigration and doesn't miss an opportunity to rejoice in the misfortune of Europeans. Thinly disguised racism and xenophobia; a nice combination.

As you offered some unsolicited advice, I'll reply in kind. Firstly, if you practiced what you peached your words might carry more weight. Secondly, if you make statements which are not supported by data, don't be surprised if you are challenged about their veracity.

Yes, that's the same fellow. I could do without the irrational mutterings of xenophobes, but this is an 'open' forum so I guess that we'll both have to bite the bullet.

Political instability is rarely of any benefit to anyone, so I see little reason to rejoice. The German electoral system is slightly complicated, but if the AfD win >50% of first and second votes then it will almost certainly have a majority in the Bundestag. Machinations to prevent them forming a government would remain a figment of your imagination.

As Michel Barnier said, "There are no winners with Brexit". Although the effects of Brexit on the EU member states haven't been the subject of as much research as in the UK, given that France and Germany are major trading partners and allies of the UK, it would be surprising if those two countries hadn't also been negatively affected by Brexit albeit not to the same extent as the UK. There were fewer immigrants to the UK, both in absolute numbers and in terms of net migration, under the 'uncontrolled' free movement of people, when we were an EU member compared with the post-Brexit 'controlled' situation.

The last revolution was in the 17th century, so - depending on your point of view - we've either got revolution out of our system and it won't happen or another one is overdue.

Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps ... In other words, it is idle speculation with nothing to support it. It is a fact that Reform picked up another council seat and that the polls show increased support for them. However, these events are of very little importance in relation to national governance. The result of an individual council by-election holds no importance for anyone living outside of the local council area. It might be argued that the current increased support for Reform shows that they have the wind behind them, and it might lead to an increase in donations and their membership however, unless there is an unforeseen event, the next general election will not take place until 2028 at the earliest. Therefore Reform's current momentum is of little significance. Let's see where they are in 3 years time. You may disagree but, "who cares"?

If those opposed to 'excessive immigration' consider it their number one concern, perhaps they should campaign for the UK to rejoin the EU as the data shows the number of immigrants were only +/-60% of the current number. https://www.statista.com/statistics/283287/net-migration-figures-of-the-united-kingdom-y-on-y/

I doubt very much that fear of a police raid figured highly in the reasons for voting among the 800 or so people who voted in the recent St. Helens council by-election. I also doubt that worrying about a possible police raid is particularly high on the list of 'Things to Fear' for the overwhelming majority of the +/-70m people who live in the UK.