Trip Hop

Your understanding of Cq (or equivalent CT) values is somewhat incorrect. The Cq<25 is just as important if not actually more important than Cq>25<30, as it identifies higher viral load and therefore more infectious. 
 

I agree that there a lot of poor performing tests out there but there are also some very excellent ones. The UK made and CE marked Avacta AffiDX test has been independently verified to have a sensitivity of 100% at CT<27 and 98.3% at CT<28 with a specificity of 99%.  The infectious range generally being acknowledged to be CT<27-28. There are also other UK made tests that whilst not as good as the AffiDX, are not that far behind?

https://avacta.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Brochure-Type-00901-SC2-Product-Specification-Sheet-v3-ID-33989.pdf

4 hours ago, Misterwhisper said:

Whole drawers stuffed with bundles of 1,000-baht bills. And yet she paid for her bachelor's degree, had her teeth done, didn't skimp on cosmetics/electronics and fashion.

 

Promoting beer must be very, very lucrative.  

I met an interesting bar owner in the states once. She paid her way through college and onto becoming a lawyer by stripping/dancing. She later bought the very same bar that she worked in but changed it into a more general roadhouse. She even got up on the tables once to give us a bit of a show before happily dropping us off at our condo at the end of the night. 

4 hours ago, Artben said:

I used to visit Thailand 3 times a year, am fully vaccinated with three jabs and willing to take my chance with Omicron however I am not willing to take a chance on the Thai Government and and commit thousands of dollars to a vacation that may turn out to be a horror story.  I'm convinced that the Government does not want so called quality tourists because their constant flip-fops are what caused me and several friends to cancel our vacation.  Net loss for Thailand:  3 people not traveling on Thai Air, a villa in Phuket that will not be rented for 3 weeks and 200,000 baht that will not go into the local economy.  Hello Vietnam!

I have a few friends who are over for 6 weeks. Through general chat the other day, it became apparent that their expected spending was to be in excess of 350,000 baht each. However, if Prayut and Anutin were to meet them, at face they would dismiss them as not being quality tourists?

Makes you think though, as yourself, with all the continuing changes and forced hospital isolation risks, as to how many similar high spending tourists have either chosen to stay home or go elsewhere?

It depends on the airline and whether you are flying direct or have a transit in another country whereby you’ll have to comply with their rules too?

I’m flying back to the UK via Singapore and whilst the UK no longer requires any sort of pre-flight test if you’re double vaccinated, Singapore requires an antigen test from a clinic or hospital along with the associated paperwork in English. 
 

If any readers can recommend a clinic in the Pattaya area that can do this, I’d be most appreciative?  I don’t really want to go to a hospital for obvious reasons and if for some reason I was positive, I have the facilities to isolate at home. 

18 minutes ago, nchuckle said:

An example of critical thinking that eludes the Thai ????. If you already have a variant that is widespread amongst your indigenous population and whose effects are minimal,then draconian restrictions on entry from outside is of little benefit and comes at significant cost to your travel /tourist industry. Trying to keep something out that is already there! Additionally,with something that infectious and widespread the chances of getting a false negative are also diminished so the more expensive PCR is of little value. But don’t expect the likes of Anutin to be blessed with that clarity of thought 

I totally agree

34 minutes ago, jimn said:

Dont make things out to be worse than they actually are. The critical incidents in a few hospitals have been declared due to staff shortages, ie having to self isolate after close contact with someone over Christmas and the New Year. This will soon pass. Dont also forget that the 17,988 people in hospital are not all there because of Covid. Only some are. The rest are in hospital for other reasons and just happen to have covid. Of the 17,988 people in hospital only 875 are serious and on Ventilators. 90% are unvaccinated 

It appears that the UK has assessed the threat level of Omicron and how fast it spreads, acknowledged that it’s in and there’s very little that they can do unless they go into a full lockdown, which the government and a lot of the people don’t want because of all the financial implications to businesses and curbs to individuals freedom. Therefore they have made the call to get on with it with a few restrictions as long as it doesn’t overwhelm the country. 
 

Whether it is the right call is yet to be seen but even if Thailand was to close its borders, at some point it will get in as per the last outbreak via legal/illegal migrant workers and outbreaks will occur. Therefore whilst I appreciate the need to protect the people, I somewhat feel that all Thailand is doing is delaying the inevitable as this will not stop until everyone has been infected to a certain degree and some form of herd immunity is achieved. In the meantime a lot of the people are suffering due to the state of the tourist industry which I can’t see recovering for a long time due the continual rule changes and forced hospital quarantine if you are found to be positive?

Therefore I feel this current cycle of bars opening/bars closing is going to be here for quite a while yet, until Thailand is ready to take that big step?

I do feel though that they would most probably be in a far better position to possibly take that step if the current administration had acknowledged the seriousness of the virus 2 years ago, possibly joined Co-Vax and got their vaccination program underway far earlier with decent vaccines?

45 minutes ago, elgenon said:

Pardon my ignorance, but what is an LFT?

Lateral flow test. More commonly known as an antigen or ATK in Thailand. 

48 minutes ago, raccos21 said:

I guess it will end with the fourth wave because the PCR tests to be scrapped on January 11th.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/boris-johnson-covid-people-cabinet-jenny-harries-b1987207.html?amp

Only just read this earlier on Google news just before I was about to book my day 2 PCR for my return? Luckily I didn’t bin the LFT that I had previously ordered for my return before they changed to PCR just before I left?

2 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

From 31 years personal experience any Thai girl that says she is connected usually isn't. They like to talk it up though. My family this and my family that. 

 

All bravado. 

 

When they find out who I know they soon keep quiet. 

Generally yes. The ones that actually are, don’t brag about it but from snippets of general conversation with them over time, you can figure it out for yourself?

21 hours ago, Megasin1 said:

My daughter (in UK) didn't feel well and tested herself with a flow test every day for a week, all negative. A pcr test then indicated a positive. I have heard that flow tests dont detect omicron and this would seem to be the case. You can now throw your arms in the air, panic, shout and run about, or just carry on as normal (the new normal) and cross your fingers. BTW she had received 3 Pfizer and has had symptoms like a mild to medium flu, touch wood.... ????????????

It depends on the test manufacturer? In the UK, the majority of the free ATKs are the Chinese made Innova or Flowflex, which I wouldn’t trust to detect anything?  These have somehow been given emergency use authorisation despite the FDA in the states, stating that they are not fit for purpose?

There are other British made LFTs that have been independently verified to detect Omicron, are recognised to be ‘best in class’ and have additional been awarded the CE mark. However, remarkably these seem to be held up in the UK’s government’s approval process?

It’s all turning into a bit of a stink in the UK at the moment considering the above, the well publicised shortage of LFTs and the government’s apparent stance to support Chinese LFTs over their far superior home grown competitors?

On 1/3/2022 at 10:57 PM, aussiexpat said:

Says only the people that have no money to invest...what a ridiculous statement 

Not really, I have exactly the same ethos including applying the same to Thai women/relationships?  So far it’s done me alright?

Why invest in a country where the rules are ever changing and stacked against you, when I can make more elsewhere with a greatly reduced risk profile?

3 hours ago, WEBBYB808 said:

It wasn't  spreading until they allowed the bars to open under the radar, and the pleasure  before saftey  seekers started showing up in Thailand  and neglecting  to follow protocol.   I still see these geniuses  walking around maskless.  Greed and pleasure  before saftey  of neighbors  and self!

What no ‘fire and brimstone’? ????

22 minutes ago, Guemlum said:

Never trusted Thai insurance companies which is why I’ve also taken out a 2nd policy with an insurer here in the UK.

Same here, took out the minimum $50000 including asymptotic cover for 30 days with Tune Protect but also renewed my annual travel policy with £15m of cover including Covid, with a UK insurer. 
 

The fact that they each cost the same at about £110, kind of highlights what’s going on here? However I wasn’t going to take the risk. 

1 hour ago, sambum said:

Apparently he has a degree in Engineering - sod all to do with people's health!  But he also has lots of money - 'nuff said? 

Nothing wrong with a degree in engineering, I have 2.  It conditions a true engineer not to take anything at face value, to question everything and deal only in logic and science. So if you told me it was raining outside, I’d most probably have to go and check myself. Your average falang engineering degree also has a maths course content of about 90%, so statistics et al are a walk in the park. How do you think the experts model their predictions, with mathematical formulae of course?

Not that I’m defending the guy at all, his actions and statements go against everything I would expect of a true engineer, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he got his degree from that university at Khaosan Road, if he has one at all?

1 hour ago, Enoon said:

They have "bucked the trend" of accurately identifying (on a mass scale) the number of infections, and so are concomitantly not identifying COVID deaths at corresponding levels.

 

Their latest deaths to new infections ratio is 1 death for every 162 infections.

 

If Thailand were reporting the numbers of infections that UK is currently reporting (7 day average about 150,000 per day) at the 1:162 ratio, they would be getting about 925 deaths a day.

 

UK is getting about (7 day average) 110 deaths a day........ 1 death for every 1363 infections.

 

UKs worst daily deaths, pre-vaccination, was about 1250.

 

Thailands COVID death:infection ratio, while they tell everyone how "successful" their vaccination programme has been, is appallingly bad.

 

 

 

 

But on the other hand, the UK’s reporting of deaths has been a bit over zealous to start with and so I don’t pay much attention to these either.  During the early days they were counting anyone who died within a 12 month period of a positive PCR as a Covid death, regardless of whatever other causes there may have been? This has now changed to 30 days.

I had a good mate who died and the official cause of death as recorded on his interim death certificate was Covid, as they found traces of it in his body when he was taken to hospital. Apparently it was nothing to do with the car that pulled into his path when he was travelling at about 60mph on his motorcycle? I must add though that this was changed upon completion of the inquest after being challenged by his wife. 

Sad but true!

2 hours ago, codemonkey said:

No, of course it offers no guarantees nor does vaccination prevent the spread of covid, especially against omicron variant. Have a look at the recent case rate charts, USA, FR, etc and check the massive spread of covid despite high vaccination rates and ongoing booster shot programs.

 During clinical studies, both pfizer and moderna claimed VE (vaccine efficacy) in the 90% range, but in real world settings, (UK-HSA, detailed variant surveillance analyses) pfizer 2 dose vaccine effectiveness waned to 0% after 20 weeks, pfizer booster waned to 40% after 10 weeks, moderna held at about 70% 5-9 weeks after a booster. AstraZeneca (2 doses) recorded negative levels of protection after 20 weeks. (Technical briefing-booster Ve)

I agree with you totally. However, if you read the thread a bit further, there are some that choose not to believe this?

13 hours ago, Credo said:

I don't know that I would call it a panic.  This variant is highly transmissible and people have a good chance of testing positive.  If you are a tourist, do you really want to find yourself stuck somewhere for an extended period of time?   

 

I’ve got to get a Covid test before I fly home on the 10th. I’ll be testing myself a few times prior to this and if I show positive, I’ll be cancelling the clinic, changing the flight and self isolating for a week!

3 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Also not so good if you're not retired and work in an industry that relies on tourism and expats coming over for long stays. In my case not so good because of school for my daughter as its bound to be closed again soon. They are back on Wed from the xmas holidays but with Omicron now in Phuket how long that will last is questionable.

I feel for anyone in that sector at the moment. I know quite a few Thai business owners that are really struggling and relying on loans and/or being propped up by their sponsors? To be a falang in that sector must be twice as hard. 
 

3 years ago, the G/F wanted to move her (or ours as she refers to it) restaurant business smack into tourist central in Pattaya? I took a look at high baht, the already declining falang tourists combined with the sky high rents and told her that it wasn’t the right time. Looking back it was the right decision even without Covid and I’m grateful that she listened.

However, even though her trade is almost 100% from Thais, it has still dropped substantially due to a lot of people simply not having work themselves?