Eddy Ozark

The new finance minister may soon have to face a difficult decision. More money printing, inflation and a devaluation of the baht that could enter the two-digit range. 

On 10/1/2020 at 8:49 AM, vandeventer said:

So if they have a Russian or Chinese vaccine than there is no quarantine? But do they work? If they have the vaccine will they all test positive?

If you have been inocculated with a TB vaccine, then you test positive for TB. A now deceased friend was thus wrongly diagnosed having TB in Thailand and got treated for that. Six months later he died from lung cancer. Mistreated and misdiagnosed for three months by hospital doctors. The man was 72 at the time.

The star of David.

Next year is the time to travel. Maybe. Not now. 

If it was ever a good idea to buy a condo here, then the time to do so is not now. There is an oversupply of them and has been for the past few years, as far as I know.

What these people are asking for is only fair. But the hypocrisy of the ruling elite prevents all progress as usual. Care for the poor? Not, not ever. 

Wake up, stop dreaming. This is not going to happen.

22 hours ago, PatOngo said:

With a population in excess of 65 million, why does Thailand even need to bring laborers from neighbouring countries? Could it be that the neighbours provide better quality, more reliable/energetic labor! ???? 

 

 

A lot of truth in that.

A government in need of money - and without money at this point - a recepy for disaster.

9 hours ago, rott said:

Is there any history of foreigners becoming a burden on Thailand.?

 

Well said. Is there any history of Thais having become a (financial) burden on foreigners? My first thought was it would need a rather large library building to provide storage place for all possible records of that kind, and numerous staff to take care of it...sorry for the sarcasm but I think in this case it is deserved.

13 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

Already looking for excuses?  Here is another one for them - and it is a biggy - Trump will win the election !

China will get even harder hit economically than in Trump's first term - and Thailand will feel the pain - huge pain.

 

And add to that the 'tourism disaster' - both post Covid and what was happening before that. Tourism was dropping for over a year despite the TAT lies - that is why they sacked the Head of TAT.

 

And add to that the high Baht which was already forcing exports to drop in 2019 and early 2020.  Despite many calls for the Baht to be lowered and 'quantitative easing' to be done, the Junta rejected that approach in favour of maintaining a high Baht which meant high exchange reserves from the very positive exports and tourism sectors. And of course to fund the large military and public infrastructure expenditures, like what was done in the China 'economic growth' model. 

 

There is a reason there has been so many resignations and sackings lately in the 'Financial Sector'. Things are coming undone and the Junta is desperately holding them together with a lot of PR and Public Sector spending announcements. They are also getting rid of people who question things. And those who have prepared are jumping ship early to avoid the later rush.

 

The Baht crashing will help, but it will be too little too late and it will only delay the inevitable. The Junta is running out of money and they know it is all coming apart.  They know that borrowing from China will only make it worse later, and I would not be surprised to hear that some of those who resigned were strongly against borrowing from China and the Junta see that as the solution.  The Junta is desperate to turn things around before the next election, but many 'elite' know they have stuffed it up and are preparing for what is inevtiable. 

 

As Keating once said in the 90s: "this is the recession we had to have" - and it is coming to Thailand.  The longer it takes to arrive, the worse it will be - for ordinary people.  

 

A very good analysis of the situation. I agree with your conclusion. IMO the baht is probably around 7 to 10 percent too high and has been so for a year or more. A 5 percent devaluation is needed right now, at least. I am not an economist, but what I say is based on a gut feeling.

This news is scary. I know one person who gets 500 baht a month and she told me about it. She told me people are concerned the government is bankrupt. Remember the finance minister who resigned within a month? Things are starting to make sense now. As for the actual foreign reserves of the country, could the figures be padded? 

Stupitity has no limits.

Pattaya has from day one had only one goal, to rip as much dough as possible from any foreign visitor. This is called business and tourism. 

This kind of news would be good if there was a way to verify the reality of the measures promised.

People are tired. Very tired of just about everything this cabinet stands for. And what with impending mass protests on the 19 of this month. A coup would not surprise me or many others.

The real estate in Pattaya and Jomtien will soon be almost worthless unless the Covid situation clears soon. Think of the huge numbers of people who invested their savings in condos and smaller businesses. For years and decades such investment was considered relatively secure. The banks and financial systems are maybe

ok for the moment, but many loans will turn from good to bad. Then the banks could collapse unless bailed out by government. However, such bailouts are usually done by ways of loans from the IMF, which may not be readily available right now. Pattaya has most likely seen the last of its golden years. 

On 9/5/2020 at 8:51 AM, keith101 said:

Even Chinese tourists want to visit Thailand, but Thailand is unlikely to open for foreign tourists, he said...

How is one supposed to understand the phrase "Even Chinese tourists want to visit Thailand"? Is it because visiting Thailand is a last resort, or are Chinese tourists the lowest possible group of tourists worldwide to want to travel anywhere?

This shows that the virus has been here all the time. Many people could have contracted it without knowing it. And been sick without seeing a doctor. 

15 hours ago, keith101 said:

 

From everything i have read about the British Embassy here they are an absolutely waste of space and dont seem to want to do their job just get paid for being here .

True.

Better stock up on the booze while there is any left and while I can still go to some open shops. Perhaps looking at three months of lockdown if experience tells me anything. Better get a spare mobile phone too in case this one konks out on me anytime soon.

I feel this whole Covid-19 issue is confusing. I have watched interviews with leading immunologists and experts in virus-caused diseases. I could not name them here because I am rather forgetful of names. But these scientists and doctors came from the UK, Germany, Australia and Russia, to name a few. They all had, basically, the same thing to say. You can slow down an epidemic, but you cannot prevent it as all that is needed is one case in any country to start it. There are two schools of thought here. The first one says, do not try to stop something that cannot be stopped, but protect the elderly and those with underlying serious conditions. Thus, you create herd immunity. The second theory says, try to stop the virus and wait it out until it disappears on its own. The cost of doing this in terms of lost income and unemployment is such that in the end most national economies will surely collapse. Now, which of the two approaches is the lesser evil? I tend to believe scientists more than politicians, if you ask me.

Would not surprise me if this is the beginning of something bigger. Proves the virus is in the country among the general population.

Considering that a pregnant housewife was recently arrested by four police officers in Victoria for a Facebook post critical of Covid 19 measures, I would not stick my neck out unnecessarily. However, social media is today's most powerful media. It is the voice of the people.

Another statement of the obvious meaning nothing. It's fun to see all the moaning over lost revenue from tourists in the face of all the red tape TM 30 and etc that these same people are fully or partly responsible for initiating.