khaosai

Hi,

I don't think the aircraft has flown through the Southern portion of China but it's interesting they are now stating they are searching within the country. The last ping on the arc that has been published would perhaps indicate it to be in Western China. I am still thinking it has gone South.

I am not sure of what airports in Sri Lanka and India the they are referring to with a runway length of 1000 metres, but Male and Diego Garcia are substantially longer than that and it's not in either of those places. To be remotely close to landing this aircraft within 1000 metres it would have to be completely empty, touch down exactly on the threshold and have a nice strong headwind. You would then need to apply max manual braking. Add into the equation it being a disused airfield with no lighting then it becomes very unlikely to have happened.

Sad to read of families threatening to go on hunger strike due to lack of information. I personally don't think the Malaysians are withholding information, but find it as equally frustrating as we all do. Naive of me, perhaps.

Land at anyone of the estimated 600 airfields or a prepared surface in the range of arc of the aircraft endurance.

The 777-200 is a large commercial airliner which would require a very strong and pretty <deleted> long runway to land and take off from. You might be able to get it on the ground at Samui airport for example which handles well over a million passengers a year but the undercarriage (due to the weight) would trash the runway as well as itself.

Hi,

At a weight of 200 tons you could stop in approx 1600 metres.

Know diddly squat about planes...but 200 tons for a B777, even with empty tanks seems pretty light. That's less than 3 MIA2 main battle tanks...clue me in folks.

Hi,

Lots of different variants of the B777. This one is a 200ER. The figures I have for this model are either 208.6 tons or 213.1 tons maximum landing weight.

From the first 200 series to the newer 300ER models the actual take off weights have increased from 247.2 tons to 351.5.

Land at anyone of the estimated 600 airfields or a prepared surface in the range of arc of the aircraft endurance.

The 777-200 is a large commercial airliner which would require a very strong and pretty <deleted> long runway to land and take off from. You might be able to get it on the ground at Samui airport for example which handles well over a million passengers a year but the undercarriage (due to the weight) would trash the runway as well as itself.

Hi,

At a weight of 200 tons you could stop in approx 1600 metres.

Hi,

Cool video. Some great controllers there ensuring safe skies

Keithledgerwood.tumblr.com

I think that's got to be it, I said long ago it must have gone to Pakistan.

This, for sure, is what he would need a simulator for, practice intercepts !. MS Flight simulator will to that just fine..

Only loose end is the northern arc of the sat-com ping data. Is the Sing air plane's course close enough to

the arc defined by the satellite antenna's tilt angle?

Hi,

Certainly plausible Rabas and not something that I even considered. Regarding the SIA aircraft routing and satellite arc, I am not sure.

You would be very surprised just how accurate the onboard navigation systems are on these aircraft. Using all of the automation it would very straightforward for an experienced crew to formate on an aircraft flying above or below. The only problem with flying below the SIA flight is that the radio altimeter on the SIA aircraft would trigger an indication on the pilots primary flight display. No sound or flashing lights tho, only white numbers on how high above the object it is.

Re the radio altimeter, then could he not fit in a sweet spot just behind and below so that most of the altimeter's return signal came from the ground?

Yes, the aircraft could be manoeuvred into a position to avoid the rad alt "coming alive" but at night it would be more difficult. My knowledge of primary radar is very limited, but I would think its unlikely that if slightly offset longitudinally it would be detected by the controller.

The rad alt only triggers when it detects something within 2500ft, normally the terrain as you are on approach to land. It does trigger when you are being overtaken or are overtaking an aircraft below. The big difference then is that you have the aircraft on the traffic collision avoidance system (TCAS/ACAS) in addition to the RADALT indication.

So the options would be to stay slight behind and below and hope that primary radar will not pick up a longer than normal return or stay 2600ft directly below to avoid the aircraft above definitely not being aware.

Fascinating scenario indeed.

*Messed up quotes edited out*

Hi,

During my career I have never been told of any specific phraseology to use when it comes to communication with air traffic control during unlawful interference. There may be one in place but I have never been made aware of it.

The cabin crew onboard may use a specific term when they call the flight deck to highlight unlawful interference. A buzz word or combination of words if you like. That procedure and phraseology may however vary from airline to airline.

Personally, I will, if time permits select the appropriate transponder code then call "mayday, mayday, mayday, flight number, hijack situation" then "standby"

It's very much time dependant. I may choose to select the ADS emergency function on, equally I may have no time whatsoever.

Whatever terminology is used is up to the specific crew on that particular day and circumstance encountered. So long as it's clearly understood by all parties concerned is the main objective.

As an aside, flying globally, I would say that communicating with all the different agencies providing an air traffic control service is at times a real challenge, even using standard terminology ! Regional accents, rate of delivery, local language can all present issues even for an experienced crew.

Keithledgerwood.tumblr.com

I think that's got to be it, I said long ago it must have gone to Pakistan.

This, for sure, is what he would need a simulator for, practice intercepts !. MS Flight simulator will to that just fine..

Only loose end is the northern arc of the sat-com ping data. Is the Sing air plane's course close enough to

the arc defined by the satellite antenna's tilt angle?

Hi,

Certainly plausible Rabas and not something that I even considered. Regarding the SIA aircraft routing and satellite arc, I am not sure.

You would be very surprised just how accurate the onboard navigation systems are on these aircraft. Using all of the automation it would very straightforward for an experienced crew to formate on an aircraft flying above or below. The only problem with flying below the SIA flight is that the radio altimeter on the SIA aircraft would trigger an indication on the pilots primary flight display. No sound or flashing lights tho, only white numbers on how high above the object it is.

"The "all right good night" message where he breaks protocol was maybe the pilot trying to tell air traffic that he's not following protocol because he's under duress (ie. an Islamist hijacker has a knife to his throat)."

There is a secret word pilots use in radio transmissions to indicate they have been hijacked. I cannot say what it is, but can tell

you that " all right good night" is not it....

I have never heard of a secret word that's meant to be used by pilots in the situation you describe.

You can learn something new every day..... Looks like khaosai, Loptr, and GentleMan were

indeed left out of the loop, or are not commercial pilots. Would appear that the FAA is not

concerned if a Cessna 172 is hijacked..... :-)

http://irvingshapiro.tripod.com/cgi-bin/Flight_93/FAA_hijack.htm

"CNN: What are the cockpit procedures if you are being hijacked? Is there any way to send a secret signal to air traffic controllers?

BARR: Yes there are. There are certain phrases that the pilots are trained to use that will indicate to the air traffic controllers that a hijack is in progress Governments like to keep these procedures confidential so as not to help hijackers.

Hi,

Well I can assure you there is no specific phraseology that I am aware of when it comes to unlawful interference. A specific transponder code will be used to get the controllers attention using secondary surveillance radar. I personally would then describe the situation clearly to the controller so he fully understands the severity of the situation.

Some airlines use specific phraseology between the cabin crew and flight deck during unlawful interference. That's maybe where the confusion lies.

Keithledgerwood.tumblr.com

Hi,

Just reading an interesting take on the aircrafts disappearance. It's posted by Keith Ledgerwood who has suggested that the aircraft slotted in below a Singapore Airlines flight heading to Europe. It certainly makes for interesting reading and seems plausible.

These aircraft with GPS fitted whilst flying along with lateral navigation (LNAV) engaged display amazing accuracy. It would be possible to fly exactly 500ft below, same speed, same route and be completely hidden from radar and the aircraft above. It's a scenario that never even crossed my mind but I can't see any reason why it would not work. Interesting stuff for sure.

"The "all right good night" message where he breaks protocol was maybe the pilot trying to tell air traffic that he's not following protocol because he's under duress (ie. an Islamist hijacker has a knife to his throat)."

There is a secret word pilots use in radio transmissions to indicate they have been hijacked. I cannot say what it is, but can tell

you that " all right good night" is not it....

I have never heard of a secret word that's meant to be used by pilots in the situation you describe.

Hi,

I had a good look of some charts last night. I don't think the aircraft headed over land to the north, certainly not over a significant distance due to the fact it would be picked up by primary radar and then encounter high terrain issues. It could cross over land east of Calcutta, heading north then north west. Pass north of Delhi and then onto Pakistani border beside Lahore. The highest minimum safe altitude on this route would be 2000ft to 2500ft. Thereafter is where the problems would arise. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar all have air defence in place and any aircraft not identified would not go unchallenged. Fuel considerations would also be a significant factor on distance travelled at low altitude.

I have not heard the spokesperson mention any fuel uplift prior to departure so I had a guesstimate of approx 50 tons. That would account for taxi fuel, trip fuel and contingency fuel. It would also include fuel to fly to an alternate, let's say Dalian which requires approx 5 tons. Finally it would include final reserve fuel which is another 30 minutes worth.

Some other info I dug out for interest:

Flying at 29000ft over a still air distance of 3000 nautical miles will require approx 44 tons of fuel.

Optimum altitude is 35000ft with an aircraft weight of 240 tons. Maximum altitude at this weight will be approx 38000ft.

At a landing weight of 200 tons the landing distance required using maximum auto brake is 1600 metres.

The search area is potentially very extensive. The aircraft could be in an area bounded by Northern China, Northwest Australia, East as far as Guam and west to the Seychelles, but I think over the oceanic areas are more probable.

Aviation expert on BBC said you have to go out of the way to turn of both transponders. It's not just a flick of a switch, but a complicated procedure.

Hi,

This is not true. The transponder takes one second to turn off. Very straightforward and in no way complicated.

I had a play around with the altitude switch whilst on the ground today to see if could replicate the spinning of the switch to 29500ft from the cruise altitude of 35000ft. I did it ten times and did not get anywhere near the figure mentioned.

Eastbound traffic flight level of 29000ft, westbound flight level of 30000ft. An intermediate altitude would therefore make sense to avoid a collision and with the transponder being off it would not generate a traffic indication on the other aircrafts navigation display, thus avoiding detection whilst dark.

45000ft is virtually the maximum altitude of the 777, but to get to that altitude it needs to be fairly light weight to achieve that.

So you say they had to loose weight before going there

sent from my windmill using ganja smoke-signals

Hi,

You could allow the speed to build up and then zoom climb towards that height but it would not be pretty. The aircraft will loose energy pretty fast. Sustained flight at the level would only be possible at light weights in the region of 160 tons. Max alt is exactly 43100ft for the 777.

Aviation expert on BBC said you have to go out of the way to turn of both transponders. It's not just a flick of a switch, but a complicated procedure.

Hi,

This is not true. The transponder takes one second to turn off. Very straightforward and in no way complicated.

I had a play around with the altitude switch whilst on the ground today to see if could replicate the spinning of the switch to 29500ft from the cruise altitude of 35000ft. I did it ten times and did not get anywhere near the figure mentioned.

Eastbound traffic flight level of 29000ft, westbound flight level of 30000ft. An intermediate altitude would therefore make sense to avoid a collision and with the transponder being off it would not generate a traffic indication on the other aircrafts navigation display, thus avoiding detection whilst dark.

45000ft is virtually the maximum altitude of the 777, but to get to that altitude it needs to be fairly light weight to achieve that.

they can put a robot on mars but cant design a beacon that detaches itself on reacting to salt water and sending out pings for a few months. its pathetic about all this hoohaa and considerable waste of money and man power when a simple device fitted to the tail plane would have given its location in a few hours.

its no use having a beacon inside the plane that sinks with the wreckage and takes months to find.

Hi,

They have designed a beacon like that. In addition to the flight data recorder ELT there are 4 beacons inside the aircraft cabin, and depending on type will transmit for approx 48 to 60 hours. The crew station at the front has one and the crew station at the rear has another. The other two are located inside the door bustle and once the slide/raft is deployed in water it will start to transmit. On the newer model of B777 there is an ELT which is located in the rear fuselage area that will transmit due to a large impact. It also has a switch located in the flight deck.

Sadly this article fails to touch on salient points.

Catastrophic failure from critical decompression would have scattered debris all over the ocean.

Even aircraft making an emergency controlled landing in water tend to break up on impact

To remain undetected by radar they would have to had dropped to below 1000 feet which makes any passage over northern Malaysia hazardous at best and for what purpose.

The Gulf of Thailand is very shallow as is much of the South China Sea and the locator beacon signals would have been very clear.

What happened to the aircraft is indeed a mystery, however ,deductive logic would demonstrate that this was not due to domino effect failures and man had a hand in the disappearance of this flight.

Low level at night in a large jet to avoid primary radar over an area of high terrain would be nigh on impossible.

Primary radar range is very limited, in the region of 60 miles. At high level these jets are travelling at approx 8 miles a minute. Less than ten mins later it's off the radar screen. Secondary radar is different, much larger ranges are possible, being in the region of 200 to 250 nautical miles. They however require a serviceable transponder on the aircraft.

Hi,

The issue with the fuselage cracks being discovered are related to the satcom antennas on the top of the fuselage and not the transponder.

Hi,

If the aircraft does depressurise the pilots get an indication in the flight deck. The cabin crew will also get an indication in the cabin along with the passenger oxygen masks dropping down immediately. The crew would then probably be aware of the subsequent rapid descent. After approximately 22 minutes the passenger oxygen will have depleted and you will then get passengers suffering from the effects of lack of oxygen if the aircraft is still flying along at high altitude. All of these obvious signals would indicate to the cabin crew that something is not right and I would hope from an experienced crew that some form of communication with the flight deck would be attempted.

Regarding the procedures that have been in place since Septemember 11. The flight deck door is now locked and there is a specific procedure in place to then enter when deemed appropriate. There is a camera available to see who is at the door. Only when the crew are 100% happy will the door then be unlocked. There is a valid argument regarding the toilet location and how much of a threat is posed by that if someone is located inside waiting for an opportunity to breach the flight deck. The emphasis needs to be on keeping the door open to the minimum time required to enter and only when the toilets are not in use. Use another cabin crew member to create a barrier. With all this in place the threat is greatly reduced.

Assuming good weather and no other perceived threats on this particular flight then it would have had approximately 50 tons of fuel onboard prior to departure. After taxi fuel and fuel used during the climb it will have in the region of 44 tons of fuel left. Fuel burn during the cruise at high level will intitially be in the region of 7 tons per hour, reducing as the aircraft gets lighter. 6 hours of flight prior to fuel exhaustion at a true air speed of 470 knots still air would cover 2800 miles. So this aircraft could possibly be 2500 to 3000 miles away from its last known position depending on the direction it was headed and effects of wind. As an example, flying 8000 feet below the optimum altitude will result in an increase of fuel required by 12 to 14%.

There is no way that until the wreckage is found that they know if the transponder was turned off manually or caused by aircraft damage.

Skippy made some good points before, fairly plausible regarding the E&E bay damage thus rendering the pilots oxygen supply unusable. The only thing that is strange is the pilot spinning the altitude knob down during the initial rapid descent maneuver and it stopping at 29500 ft. It could happen but what would the odds be on that. That's a good altitude to fly at to avoid other aircraft when crossing other airways.

No transponder, no communication, no ADS indications, no ACARS messages, no seismic activity, no wreckage. Has me stumped for sure. Catastrophic or planned and completely under control.

I said yesterday.. my theory was hypoxia.... and in a hypoxic blurr, turned on a new heading..... I have had something similar to hypoxia diving to 60m on air (stupid - i know ), and i can tell you, you can't function well....

... some threads with 777 pilots confirming it to be very plausible........ not - unless on auto throttle and alt select..... if under power, a aircraft will decend at a constant speed..... maybe many hours !

Also explains why passengers did not answer their phones as claimed, and the 4 hour engine data report......

That plane went far out over the drink somewhere, my guess is between india and malaysia somewhere ( had enough fuel to reach india - but obviously did not ). it clearly did not proceed over vietnam or in its flight planned route.

if there had been an explosive decompression centred on the E&E bay that knocked out all comms equipment and the crew oxygen could it be that the initial actions of the emergency descent checklist, the first sweep, be accomplished then hypoxia set in before the second sweep could be completed?

Under the old 1000s position of the ALT SEL an anticlockwise spin would reduce the selected altitude by many thousands of feet, an anticlockwise spin of the heading could give a large heading change to the west, the aircraft would descend at current IAS (normally in the cruise at FL350 M.84 equates to 250-260Kts indicated). However if the ALT SEL was in the Auto position a quick spin would change the selected altitude by only several hundreds of feet, possibly by pure chance FL295?

This scenario could explain the lack of comms, the primary radar target tracked on a westerly routing and the fact that no debris has yet been found. At FL295 the pilots would succumb quickly to the effects of hypoxia, the passengers likewise once the passenger oxygen was depleted. The cabin crew may have transferred to portable oxygen and attempted to reach the flight deck (my company trains the cabin crew to do exactly that if the descent has not commenced within 80 seconds). However even had the cabin crew entered the flight deck would (could?) they attempt a radio call, once they removed their mask there wouldn't be much time of useful consciousness to get that call out even assuming they knew how to.

Hi,

plausible scenario there skippy. Lots of portable oxygen onboard for the cabin crew to move around tho. I would hope they would have entered the flight deck at some stage to see what exactly was going on, however how much benefit there would be after a long time had passed is debatable. That's assuming access would be possible due to the location of the E&E bay and possible deformation etc. All speculation of course, but interesting nonetheless.

I believe it's up to the flight crew to check the amount of fuel but who decides how much they put on board?

Flight dispatch will generate a flight plan taking into account route, weather and Notams, but ultimately the flight crew will decide how much fuel to carry. The actual amount delivered will be checked by engineering and the flight crew to ensure uplift is enough to complete the flight.

Hi,

I am pretty sure the engine parameters are monitored but don't think the aircraft position and flight data are linked to that specific engine reporting system.

A military airbase....for refueling? And then on to where? Incredible story..... But wait.... why no ransom...why no warbling old ladies dancing around in the goat field? How could this be a hostage situation if no ransom notes/demands are made? Or are these being kept quiet? Perhaps for a surprise rescue?

Did you give thought to the possibility that if it is a hijacking, the people behind it may want to use the aircraft as a weapon. Or as a weapon delivery platform.

Scary isn't it ? Hope none of Syria's confiscated chemical weapons fell into the wrong hands.

But someone would have to change the on-board flight number identification.

Changing the onboard flight number is very simple. It's only used to provide datalink information which can be switched off easily too.

But if an aircraft has no identification it gets challenged by ground control right?

Hi,

Indeed it will if detected on primary radar which has a very limited range. Communication with unknown traffic will normally be broadcast on the VHF distress and emergency frequency to establish the aircraft identity.

A military airbase....for refueling? And then on to where? Incredible story..... But wait.... why no ransom...why no warbling old ladies dancing around in the goat field? How could this be a hostage situation if no ransom notes/demands are made? Or are these being kept quiet? Perhaps for a surprise rescue?

Did you give thought to the possibility that if it is a hijacking, the people behind it may want to use the aircraft as a weapon. Or as a weapon delivery platform.

Scary isn't it ? Hope none of Syria's confiscated chemical weapons fell into the wrong hands.

But someone would have to change the on-board flight number identification.

Changing the onboard flight number is very simple. It's only used to provide datalink information which can be switched off easily too.

ACARS information. Point to note -- Boeing decline to comment if the system is installed on MH380 --

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aircraft_Communications_Addressing_and_Reporting_System

http://www.acarsd.org/

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/10/us-malaysia-airlines-idUSBREA291D520140310

Quote --

Facts about ACARS

ACARS ( Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System also called Email for Aircrafts) is a digital data link system transmitted via VHF radio which allows Airline Flight Operations Departments to communicate with the various Aircraft in their Fleet. (not every aircraft is equipped with the ACARS System or the ACARS system is disabled)

NOT only by satellite......

It will work by using different VHF frequencies around the world but if not in VHF coverage it changes to satcom. It's basically 2 sub networks. VHF through the centre radio panel in data mode and then automatically changing to satcom if required. VHF is generally preferred as it's cheaper and transmits faster.

If the aircraft remained at high level, intact and under control with approx 45 tons of fuel then it will potentially be able to travel 2500 nautical miles.

Hi,

There is a directive which has been introduced due to cracks having been discovered on the top of the fuselage where the satellite communication is located. The location is basically on the roof in line with the leading edge or trailing edge of the wing.

If the aircraft suffered catastrophic structural damage there would obviously be an immediate depressurisation. If it then remained intact it's imperative the crew get the oxygen masks on immediately to ensure survival. The time of useful consciousness at that sort of height is mere seconds without a supply of oxygen.

Like the authorities I have no idea what has happened to the aircraft. I take a very keen interest in all ideas and thoughts on what may have happened tho and will try to offer some accurate information if possible.