Patts

On 10/17/2020 at 7:52 PM, shy coconut said:

Some Thais are fairly superstitious, especially when it comes to buying

a lotto ticket, so the dream aspect will be lapped up by the hopeful.

Dude, some? Every Thai I have meet are very superstitious and religious. They genuinely believe their buddhist lucky charms and writings keep them safe which is part of the reason for the crazy driving and number of road accidents.

Some of the superstitious believes are nuts such as if a child whispers a number Thais believe it's a "lucky number" and buy Lotto tickets for it. If they have a bad dream they think it's a sign. 

Here's a real crazy one, my missus believes if a dog farts it means someone is going to die or have a bad accident.  

I believe that people who are highly religious and superstitious are very simple minded. 

Production to start Mid 2021 so will be at least the end of 2021 before people are vaccinated in any meaningful numbers. It's not looking good for tourism 

1 hour ago, Chelseafan said:

 

I said Catostrophic for the short-term.

The Government has said a lot of things regarding Brexit which have frankly been proven to be BS. Please tell me which of the 88% of items will be tariff free so that we plan out. There are less than 75 days to go and we are still in the dark. Which sectors are going to lose trade ? How can those sectors avoid it ? We plan very well in retail but the uncertainty is causing massive issues.

GDP is only rising given the uncertainty of what is happening in the US. If there IS a no-deal I would very much expect the pound to crash further.

 

 

All Governments in all democratic countries have said things that have turned out to be incorrect. Your companies logistics manager should be talking to his counterparts and know what items tariffs apply to as well as having a good idea of the procedure that will need to be followed in the event of "No Deal" as I am sure he/she deals with imports/exports to WTO member countries day in, day out. 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-tariffs-from-1-january-2021

It's down to individual companies to know how they may be affected by Brexit and to have a plan of action to mitigate possible reductions in trade, but this should have all have been in place a long time ago. 

12 hours ago, candide said:

I know.

You initially claimed: "On these terms would would also be free to make new trade agreements with the rest of the world which could lead to far more exports for the UK." Then provided a list of agreements , which are expected to take effect from 1 January 2021 , as you rightly recall.

 

My point is that the agreements you listed are not likely to lead to far more exports because UK has already been able to export to these countries (in most cases, for years) because they have a similar agreement with the EU.

Nothing I said was incorrect. I never said that the UK was going to get lots of new trade deals on the 1st January 2021. I was showing that the UK does have trade agreements that are affective from this date. It will take a considerable amount of time for the UK to sign new trade deals and for those deals to be at such a level where they offset any potential losses from leaving the EU. 

As stated before we already have on going trade talks and agreements in principle with Japan, Australia, New Zealand and the US (although that could depend on the outcome of the US election). When these "agreements in principle" become trade deals, I don't know. 

16 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

 

As someone who works as a buyer for one of the larger retailers let me tell you that a no deal would be catastrophic, certainly for the short-term. Firstly, we've already been told that truck availibility is going to be serverely reduced. Those trucks making 2-3 trips a week between EU and UK will probably only be able to make 1-2 trips. Retailers and suppliers are already stockpiling products from outside the EU putting additional strain on transport from port to the retailers distribution hubs. Some EU suppliers have already said that they will not be supplying as they don't want their trucks held up nor do they want to be burdened with the additional paperwork. You might say, 'who needs them' well we do; as avaibility of items is diminished other suppliers will increase their prices.

We now have to employ additional vets at our depot (additional cost) to issue health certificates for export. This also slows down the distribution chain which is not great for short-shelflife items.

Assuming we can find storage, companies are charging a premium and someone has to pay for this!

And lets not forget the exchange rates, if the pound crashes on a no-deal then not only does the Euro get stronger but probably the dollar too (a lot of global trade is in US dollars)

 

I will tell you this for free. In the short-term, there WILL be lack of avaibility and there WILL be price increases.

 

 

 

I don't disagree that there will be some short term pain; but over the following years the problems will be ironed out and new agreements will be created. To say "no deal" will be catastrophic is a massive assumption......

There maybe delays, some price increases and some falls. Some sectors will lose trade and some will gain. The government has already stated that they will not be applying tariffs to 88% of goods. 

GDP may drop a little more on a "No deal" but it seems to already have found the bottom of its trading range and has been on somewhat of a recovery over the past few months. 

11 minutes ago, Chelseafan said:

 

You realise that the UK fishes in EU waters too. It works both ways.

 

I'm not saying it doesn't but there is a reason the French and Dutch are so desperate to keep fishing our waters and just last week 12 french/dutch trawlers attacked 2 UK trawlers fishing in UK waters.  In 2019, the total weight of fish landed by UK vessels in the UK and abroad was 621,900 tonnes, of which 230,700 tonnes (37%) were landed abroad.

In 2015, the UK was allocated 30% of the EU quota for fishing ground stocks which occur in UK waters. The area of UK waters relative to other member states is certainly high, but the exact proportions depend on the region and which components of member state waters should be considered.

If Farage’s point is that most of the quota for fish stocks that live in UK waters are fished by other member states, then he is correct; but the figure is not 80%, more like 70%. However, these are not “our” fish, the fish that live in UK waters are no more British than they are German, Dutch, Belgian, Irish or Norwegian: they are in fact European.

Link: https://theconversation.com/fact-check-is-80-of-uk-fish-given-away-to-the-rest-of-europe-39966

On 10/17/2020 at 3:40 PM, candide said:

No new export opportunities for UK. UK already had access to these countries because they all have an agreement with the EU.

From the Government Website:

"Agreements with the following countries and trading blocs are expected to take effect when existing EU trade agreements no longer apply to the UK, from 1 January 2021."

On 10/17/2020 at 3:17 PM, Bruntoid said:

so no deals with Japan, New Zealand and Australia then ?? and there certainly isn’t one or close to one with USA ! 
 

But seriously how did you manage to type that list with a straight face ?? 
 

Faroe Islands, Lichtenstein !! ????????????

 

Who needs the $17+ trillion GDB EU - when you’ve got that list of industrial powerhouses !! ????

I didn't type it, all information is from the Gov.uk Website.......You remainers love making assumptions 

17 minutes ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

LOL you were the one quoting this article (and the paragraph about “if we exclude...” in particular) in response to the comment that the UK relies more an the EU market than the other way round. You’re the one making a fool of yourself. 

Please feel free to keep making assumptions.  

I provided a link to the full article to the OP where it goes into a fair amount of detail, so I included the quoted text (again from the same article) and returned as abbreviated answer by google, so the OP could view it quickly and read the full article if they wanted. The OP stated that the EU's trade with the UK is less than 5% of their exports, I provided the abbreviated quote as this factually showed what the OP said was incorrect as the the EU's exports are 6.2%. Again I also provided a link to the full article in my reply to you.  keep nipping away with your superiority complex.  

21 hours ago, RayC said:

Whatever figures are used, I don't see how reverting to WTO rules is in either the UK's or EU's interest.

It's not but this is the road we have been forced to take due to a lack of flexibility by certain EU countries (not excluding the UK). WTO terms are not ideal but at least it allows us to trade with the EU. 

20 hours ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

Yeah, and if we exclude trade with other countries from the UK, the EU is your one and only market. I’m really wondering how your business has been able to survive given your lack of analytical skills. Anyway, thanks for your comment — I will add it to my list of favorite Brexiteer quotes, just next to “they need us more than we need them because there’s a trade deficit.” 

It's not my comment, it's a quote taken directly from the BBC, again you make a completely incorrect assumption and make yourself look like a fool!

Written by:

By Andrew Walker
BBC World Service economics correspondent

Link: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46612362#:~:text=When we look at the,of the EU 27 GDP.

13 minutes ago, daejung said:

But exports from UE to UK are less than 5% of all EU exports vs 43% from UK to EU

Nope.....

You might want to read this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46612362

and short version here: "When we look at the share of the EU's exports going to the UK there is a choice to make about whether to include trade among the remaining 27 EU countries in total goods exports. If we do include it, the UK share is 6.2%; if we don't it's 18% of the total"

2 hours ago, 2 is 1 said:

So you dont understand deal between WTO rules or like EU deal before!? I dont know what you sell , maybe Durasell bunny!? WTO rules is like "dont have rules" and that means every coundry can deside them self! If UK get out whitout deal whit EU , you can see place like Kent is place where is nothing else that truck to waiting on line! I dont know how much export from UK go to EU coundry's but they have own deal between eatch other. Anyway Eu is 6 times more big than UK in economy way! So if small want deal whit bigger i think you know how it goes! If you are "Duracell bunny" factory man!

I'm sorry but what you say is completely incorrect. You may want to visit the World Trade Organisation Website and have a read:

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/thewto_e.htm

https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tradfa_e/tradfa_e.htm

1 hour ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

Then you should know that your statement was nonsense. Or, if you don’t, I hope your business never comes into a situation where you’re considering to screw your biggest customer who brings you half of your revenues by explaining him that he needs you more than you him because he sells more to you than the other way round. 

The UK are not "screwing" their partner, we are simply asking for a fair break from the EU. The EU still want access to fisheries  that they have dominated for years with the use of huge industrial trawlers is not fair, equal or acceptable. The EU are currently our biggest trading partner but things have to change and as shown here it is never a good idea to rely so heavily on a single customer. 

The UK needs to increase it's manufacturing and exports to other wealthy countries

11 hours ago, thaiflyer1 said:

Heres the one to buy stocks in........about to go boom......not a vaccine but a nebuliser

 

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=SNG&share=Synairgen

Not another MTFB, that greddy Graham cost me ££££ LOL

59 minutes ago, bodga said:

what a waste of  time, just  kill  them then the idiots  that feed  them

Not a waste of time at all. If they simply assume the dogs have rabies the 6 children and 3 adults bitten by the dogs will have to go through a course very painful injections,,,,,,,possibly needlessly 

22 hours ago, baansgr said:

Considering Chinese were the largest tourist nationality to Thailand pre Covid...and that they supposedly have controlled the virus...it makes sense to court them first...

The largest purely due to tour groups which are run by Chinese travel operators using chinese owned Buses and Hotels probably flying on a Chinese airline. The Chinese tourists spend very little money in Thailand and all the money they pay for the holiday stays in the hands of Chinese businesses. 

Sure they account for the largest percent of tourists but lets not kid ourselves that any of the money they spend goes towards the Thai economy 

22 hours ago, webfact said:

Government spokeswoman Traisulee Traisoranakul expects 1,200 tourists in the first month, generating about 1 billion baht ($31.55 million) in revenue and 12.4 billion baht over one year, drawing in 14,400 tourists.

These figures have been pulled out of someones ass. Very few tourists can afford to spend $26,000 a month.

A more realistic figures could be anywhere from $1,000 to $10,000 a month

1 hour ago, Morch said:

 

I haven't really dug into it yet, so not sure how migrants were classified/labeled. I'd suspect it's more to do with Rohingya, Myanmar, and Cambodian people, though. At least from Thai immigration's point of view, we (or well, most of us staying here long term) aren't classed as migrants.

Yes good point, I have to confess I didn't think of it from that point of view