3 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

You know what? I think I might be “the poster suggesting this is not doom stuff.”

 

let’s start with a definition of “doom”

 

 

doom

/do͞om/

Learn to pronounce

 

noun

 

1. death, destruction, or some other terrible fate.

   "the aircraft was sent crashing to its doom in the water"

verb

1. condemn to certain destruction or death.

   "fuel was spilling out of the damaged wing and the aircraft was doomed"

    

   note that what you call “distortion of data” is not present in this definition. So even if as you claim, members are “distorting” data, it does not bear any relation to doom.

    

   and what examples do you have of members “distorting data continually”? Data is presented by various members from various third party sources. Their interpretation of that data may differ to yours, but that is not distortion of the data itself. Your allegation is unfounded unless you can provide a specific example of data that has been distorted.

    

   your other point is context. Context is similar to interpretation in so far as individual members might frame data in different contexts and be equally correct. You are at liberty to frame data in the context to which you feel relevant. There is no reason why other members should not use different context, which they believe to be equally relevant.

    

   make your point, that is your prerogative, but I see little merit in labeling other members with derogatory titles such as “doom squad”.

    

   Apologies for the change in font type. I can’t work out how to change it. ????

You seem like a sensible guy and I referred to you obliquely only as you questioned my use of the term doom squad.

Do you think it makes sense for Thailand to be compared to countries like Ireland, Denmark or say The Seychelles on absolute numbers when Thailand is the 20th most populated country? If so, I have to rethink my first sentence haha. And what if people continue to do so, day after day, with the hearts agreeing? Thailand will soon be in the Top 80 to date or is now in the Top 20 currently. Because some stat (in absolute terms) shows that? Is that the level of reasoning in this forum, good grief. 

And what about objectively looking at the data compared to other countries waves. I know there's no stats but kinda expect people to have a clue on the ravages that took place in Europe and Americas compared to what Thailand numbers are. Even with Thailand being in the grip of this wave, their to date deaths per capita are less than Australia and 20 to 50x that of most European and American countries. How can people blithely ignore that. 

I'm happy for the same half a dozen or so who tend to dominate the Covid threads (obviously with a few exceptions) to pick apart the politicians, their decisions re Songkran, testing and vaccine rollout to their hearts content.

But to use these absolute numbers as evidence as to how poorly Thailand is performing. Sorry can't abide as just so asinine and tedious. Either they are incapable of comparing like with like or choose not to. Why would that be?
 

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Careful we don't want you dying on us...????

 

Yes I understand per capita thanks, did you take a look at the link? It includes that column (deaths per million) and Population column clearly or maybe you missed it. These are the factual statistics on weekly trends as much as you disagree with them. 

You’re almost there! 
 

And what happens when you rank per capita? Are you able to glance down the columns? 
 

Can you appreciate this would be a much better basis of comparison than absolute numbers? 
 

Give it a go. Then maybe try harder to understand the relative basis of cumulative and even this wave data compared to most countries previous waves. 
 

Or you can continue to select the data as provided to further.the doom narrative. 

4 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

You really can't be that stupid. We are talking about now. The so-called third wave. Not from the beginning. As it stands NOW Thailand is not going well. It's a simple concept. The last 2 months not the last 14 months.

Pls just answer one simple question. 
 

Why do you ignore the context of per capita? 
 

I can see anything else will be a stretch, like cumulative per capita data or even comparing this Thai wave with other countries waves. 

Yes Thailand is undergoing a wave. But you interpretation relative to per capita, other countries experiences and host of other factors is typical selective doom squad posting. 

4 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Poster was referring to the world weekly trends, ie the here and now.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/

You guys kill me... 

1. Do either of you understand per capita - check the countries below Thailand and their populations. 

2. BS re top 80 ranking? Per capita please. 
3. And to the poster suggesting this is not doom stuff - what is it when people distort data (or unable to place in context) continually. 
 

I’ll continue to bang away about context because even in the grip of this wave, Thailand data is very very impressive. If people took off their blinkers, it should provide assurance that they’ll bring under control again. 
 

Good to see a fall in the numbers, even if the community transmissions are still around 2,000 per day. Be interesting to see if the prisons and factories infections take off again.

Per capita, Thailand is still one of the best performing countries https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries and just comparing to Malaysia next door with less than half the Thai population, see graph..

I was temperature checked yesterday by the local health volunteer and asked for my details (passport and recent quarantine papers) as we're visiting my partner's village. How many countries have such system when people visit a village?

I'm confident we'll see the numbers drop week by week during June. Not perfect, but their processes and the community are up to the task.

She'll be right mate. Look at the numbers, compared to Malaysia next door, with less than half of the Thai population.

Per capita, Thailand is still one of the best performing countries, which so many people blithely ignore... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Not perfect, but their processes and community are up to the task. I was contacted this morning for my details (passport, vaccination cert and quarantine papers) by the local health volunteer as we're visiting partner's village. How many countries have that system when people visit a village?

It's a pity Thailand got caught out with this wave but they will manage it just as they did the previous outbreaks, even if this one takes a little longer to sort the prisons and factories. At least most of the provinces are already under control.

3 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Not so good on the weekly trends. 23rd worse country in the world. India of course being number 1. New Zealand is 178. I think it would be difficult to argue that Thailand has done better than New Zealand.

Aw you got me there, comparing Thailand to a couple of islands in the Pacific. Will give you that one.

As for weekly trends, no denying Thailand has a challenge on its hands and we can postulate whether the handling of Songkran was irresponsible or not. I take comfort the cases are declining in most of the provinces outside Greater Bangkok, and for the most part the clusters are identified and being addressed. Compare that to Europe and Americas throughout 2020.

No denying Thailand is experiencing a challenging wave, relative to the previous ones (though still small, compared to most countries' waves) but I believe they've got the systems and the community awareness to manage. Let's see.

10 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Ok. If you think so. Please remember the WHO said it wasn't a pandemic and keeping boarders open is a good thing. Personally I think there are far safer countries than Thailand to be in in regards to Covid. If you think differently that's your perogative. 

By the way even though your tired of saying why Thailand has done and I guess is doing so well I would really like to know. 

1. Look at the cases per capita - 175 out 222 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
2. Gave you four reasons, compare to other countries - which ones don't you understand? 
3. Not just WHO but also John Hopkins University has recognised Thailand's performance as well as Europe, given Thailand is one of seven countries been allowed in there without quarantine for the last 12 months.

It's quite simple if you take off the blinkers and look at the evidence.

I'm vaccinated Astra x2, coming out of quarantine and into a car so won't do any more quarantine.

33 minutes ago, Thomas J said:

Was Thailand responsible.  Yes.  Probably not anymore or any less than Italy, Spain, France, but its rate of Covid infection is much much less.  So does Thailand deserve the entire credit for the low numbers.  Probably not.  As mentioned you can pick numerous countries with low Covid numbers and their governments were hardly making front line measures and had world class health organizations. African countries in particular have very low Covid infection rates. They do share in common with South East Asia a young population and very hot temperatures.

Thailand vs European responsibility:

1. Tight border control - Can't say that about most of Europe, good grief.
2. Adoption of face masks - Thailand did from the onset while it took Europeans and the WHO until June last year to recognise their vital role. So many thousands of lives could have been saved if the Europeans used face masks in the aged care homes during the first wave early last year. 
3. Contact tracing - Thailand never lost control and was able to manage their numbers through tracing and then effective quarantine. Europe lost control and contact tracing became swamped.
4. Thailand has one million health volunteers. My partner was one before she moved from her village and now one of her sisters is one of ten there. They are a huge advantage... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-thailand-volunteer-idUSKBN23B044

These are some of the reasons Thailand has performed so well, as recognised by John Hopkins University and World Health Organisation. Thailand has demonstrated repeatedly, they have the systems and community support to handle Covid and is why their cases per capita are less than 5% of most European nations.

This for a country with 70 million people with porous borders and millions of migrant workers. Hard to compare with African countries at all. Some of the African success is due to their experience with diseases, e.g. Ebola but also low travel in and out of the country, compared to most other nations.

Is a pity the chap who keeps posting the table showing Thailand at number 90 isn't able to show on a per capita basis as Thailand would then be around 175 out of 222 countries, with far more exposure than most of them below - due to travel volume, borders and migrant workers. Pls review the per capita cases as well as deaths...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

16 minutes ago, Thomas J said:

I am not so sure that Thailand deserves the credit for the good performance just like I don't believe it is fair to lambaste the authorities for the current outbreak. 

Look at all of the countries that are bunched around Thailand in terms of their rates of Covid infections then look at the countries adjacent to Thailand.  I find it doubtful that one would likewise say the the reason these countries also have low covid rates of infection was the skillful actions of the governments of Rwanda, the Congo, or Mozambique. Likewise Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar also have amongst the lowest rates of infection.  If you look the two common attributes of those with low rates of covid infection rates is 1. hot tropical climates and 2. low median age of the population. 

The median age in Senegal is 18.5 years, Mozambique 17.6 years, Congo 17 years.  Even Vietnam is a bunch of old people at 31.9 years.  Contrast that to Italy, 47.3 years, Belgium 41.75 years Portugal 44.5.   

Stands to reason, who catches Covid, the elderly and the sick are the most prone.  Now are there other factors like race? But one way or another the tie to hot climate and young populations is pretty strong. 
 

Partly agree but not a lot.

You show the average ages for Euro countries, then others with lower age averages and assume Thailand is closer to those. Nope, Thailand is much closer to Europe with an average age of 40.1  https://www.statista.com/statistics/331867/average-age-of-the-population-in-thailand/

Agree heat and humidity have a bearing but hasn't helped Central America. Locally Thailand has performed far better per capita than India, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Sri Lanka among others, pls check the global data as lots of good stuff in there.. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Thailand has done very, very well, (as has Vietnam, Myanmar etc, but bet Thailand has far more migrant workers), just doesn't seem like it at the moment. Let's hope they manage this challenge like they did the previous smaller waves.
 

2 hours ago, Thomas J said:

 

Could Thailand have done better to prevent the spread of Covid?  Maybe? That is 20/20 hindsight. All you can say is compared to the majority of the world, Thailand has experienced far fewer cases of Covid 19 per million.  Whether that was by luck or the governments actions, who knows but to complain about being in a country that ranks as the 179th lowest Covid cases per million out of a total of 220 countries, seems to ignore that the situation here is far better than most of the rest of the world. 

 

 

Yep, find it fascinating how folk go on without acknowledging the global data, which guess many don't believe, other than when it's painful.

Wasn't by luck that Thailand identified by the WHO and John Hopkins University for their Covid performance. This wave is unsettling but believe Thais will manage with their systems and community discipline. Is telling this wave is now focused on prisons and factories. The outbreaks in most of the provinces outside Greater Bangkok are under control - low, manageable case numbers.

And for context, Thailand would have to experience more than 20x the volume of cases to come close to the numbers per capita experienced in most of Europe to date. Compared to Malaysia, Thailand is around 15% of their per capita cases, where they've also suffered in prisons and migrant worker communities.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Always find it useful to refer back to the data when the emo starts flying around.
 

11 minutes ago, candide said:

The problem is not so much to recognise Israel than with which borders.

Don't agree, as both Hamas and Iran don't accept Israel, period. That has to be the first step and the configuration to follow.

I don't know what best solution would be - one state or two. I'm not close enough to have a strong opinion. On one hand, I've heard Palestinians have equal opportunities in Israel but a long way to go. This is a Jewish site out of the US, but looks reasonable and has references..  https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/the-status-of-arabs-in-israel  

On the other hand, you have to think Palestinians are going to be more energetic, focused and receive worldwide support if they control their own destiny. As long as they achieved reasonable governance.

But first, their leaders have to accept Israel's existence, as nothing can happen until then.

1 hour ago, candide said:

Who cares? The fact that there was not a state called Palestine doesn't mean there was not a sense of local identity in the administrative Ottoman subdivision which was covering most of Palestine. The fact that a significant part of this identity has been only recently forged after the creation of Israel also doesn't mean there is no identify. Actually the Israeli identity has also been forged quite recently. Before there were Jews located in different countries and speaking German, Arabic, Russian, etc... Then they build a country and an identity, including speaking the same language.

It's not a big deal to me. Gets raised often as to whose land is it historically. My point is the Jews were there long before the Christians and the Moslems. So the Palestine region is where the Jewish diaspora originates, whether they later migrated to Germany, Russia, the US, wherever. That identity is not recent, has been very strong for centuries and why they've suffered persecution in various countries.

I agree Palestinians have an identity, very much galvanised by the formation of Israel.

So moving on, I accept the creation of Israel, to the extent I understand the forces that led to it, was UN sanctioned and achieved. Clearly many Arab leaders didn't accept, leading to various wars, which Israel always won. In winning those wars they took land as buffer zones, which is very contentious. Israel lost a lot of support, particularly from the Left with their West Bank settlements.

Such a pity that Rabin was assassinated as the horrid mess might have been sorted over 20 years ago.

I might be wrong, but believe Hamas made a much bigger deal of the land issue as an excuse to rain missiles into Israel. They are testing Biden on one hand, and again looking for sympathy as Israel retaliates and typically pays back more than double. The thousands of Hamas missiles would have been many, many times more destructive if the Israelis didn't have the technology to defend. In my eyes, Hamas is clearly the perpetrator of this conflict. They are also a bunch of mongrels in my eyes.

The sooner the rest of the Moslem world's leaders (inc Iran) recognise Israel is not going anywhere, and agrees to their right to exist, we'll continue to see Palestinians (and Iranians) held back economically and socially. The people of these countries would be relieved as well. Imagine, once Israel is accepted, what the peace, investment and co-operation could achieve.

Why do I suspect Hamas (and the Iranian) leaders aren't interested in their peoples' welfare as much as their own narrow corrupt interests?

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

 

The actual events are not confusing at all. The reason confusion is an issue is because of the propaganda lies in pseudo-historical works like "From Time Immemorial", which peddled the same misinformation as Robblok does here, that Palestine does not exist, Palestinians are not indigenous, all a crock of nonsense.

 

You want the map? Not a problem, here you go:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinians#/media/File:Medieval_Arab_Palestine.jpg

 

You want to know what people lived there? Not a problem. The Canaanites were the original inhabitants of Palestine, not the Jews. Egypt and the Assyrians ruled the place, Babylonians, Persians, Macedonians, Romans, then the Muslims conquered it in the 7th century.

 

A lot of different people lived there, but Palestinians always lived there, even before the Muslims conquered the area and they became arabized. Because the Palestinians are direct descendants of the Cannanites. As indeed are the Jews. Palestinians and Jews are brothers really, genetically speaking, divided by culture and religion.

 

When the Israeli IDF kills 61 Palestinian children they do not just violate the central teachings of Judaism, they are killing their own brothers.

 

According to a study published in June 2017 by Ranajit Das, Paul Wexler, Mehdi Pirooznia, and Eran Elhaik in Frontiers in Genetics, "in a principle component analysis (PCA) [of DNA], the ancient Levantines [from the Natufian and Neolithic periods] clustered predominantly with modern-day Palestinians and Bedouins..."

 

In a study published in August 2017 by Marc Haber et al. in The American Journal of Human Genetics, the authors concluded that "The overlap between the Bronze Age and present-day Levantines suggests a degree of genetic continuity in the region."

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinians

 

This genetic continuity between modern Palestinians and ancient Levantine people, back to the Bronze Age, is an indisputable fact, and claims by Robblok or Joan Peters that Palestinians were not indigenous, Palestine never existed, etc, are not even on the level of preposterous.

 

Zionism, however, was a modern creation of the late 19th century. In fact Theodor Herzl, initially proposed either Argentina or Palestine, and himself strongly favoured Argentina as a destination for Jewish Immigration.

 

The fact that Israel was created in Palestine and not the Pampas of Argentina is just a historical fluke.

 

 

 

 

 

You're being naughty with your reference to that map haha. There are no borders and the only place the word Palestine is used is with the heading Syria and Palestine, which I totally understand as they're referring to a broad region, just like my link to Palestine region alludes. Please, let's not kid ourselves.

Then you flash back to the Canaanites, no problem, who the Israelites displaced - yep, can accept that. But then you introduce the Palestinians.. "A lot of different people lived there, but Palestinians always lived there". Where did they spring from? It was a term for a region, never a race until last century.

Your link to Palestine, first sentence... "Palestinian Arabs, are an ethnonational group comprising the modern descendants of the peoples who have lived in Palestine continuously over the centuries and who today are largely culturally and linguistically Arab" Then click on Palestine in that sentence and you go to my link regarding the Palestinian region, geographical term.

We're not likely to convince each other here. And to some degree is semantics. Btw did you review the 40 Vox maps, which are neat. And here's one I found, around 1,000BC which shows the 12 tribes of Israel and a little strip of land denoted as Philistia. Three thousand years to go full circle?

Btw think Argentina is a bit of a stretch!

It's such a tough and complicated situation. Ultimately I err towards Israel, (didn't always), because they are democratic, very innovative, treat women more to my values and I like their sense of humour. I'm agnostic.

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

 

Lol, there was no Palestine.

 

Maybe try and educate yourself and stop reading drivel like Joan Peters' From Time Immemorial and other propaganda lies:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Palestine

 

Palestinians have a long history deeply rooted in the territory of Palestine, long before the Arab conquest of Palestine in the 7th century even.  Before the Arab conquest of Palestine in the 7th century Palestine was part of Syria.

When you say Palestine was part of Syria, please show a map that portrays that. What races lived in this enclave? Until the last century, Palestine was a broad term initially used by the Greeks and the Romans to indicate a region, somewhat amorphous, a bit like the Levant.

During the Crusades, Palestine was the term used for the Holy Lands, which also included what is now Jordan and parts of Lebanon, Syria. The term Palestinians to refer to a race of people was not established until the British mandate of 1947.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestine_(region)

And here's a link to a very neat collection of maps, which further reinforce how confusing this whole region has been for a very long time... https://www.vox.com/a/maps-explain-the-middle-east
 

They didn't poll many on this forum. We know there's corruption and sad road fatality rates, yep but the level of cheap shot criticism and sarcasm can be tedious. 

It wouldn't matter which country the TV moaners lived, as they'd still find something to bitch about. 

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

 

What that poster said was "vaccines with relatively high numbers of adverse reactions as compared to other vaccines, such as the problem with the AZ vaccine worldwide".

 

Compared to other vaccines he is absolutely correct.

 

"According to data from the US Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), about 372 out of every million administered doses of the mRNA vaccines lead to a non-serious reaction report." Compare that with AstraZeneca:

 

 "According to UK safety-monitoring system the Yellow Card Scheme, about 4,000 doses out of every million administered lead to adverse reactions."

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00290-x

 

So 4000 adverse reactions in a million with AZ, 372 with ALL MRNA vaccines. 

 

Very clearly AZ does have a high number of adverse reactions compared to other vaccines.

 

 

If you read the whole article it presents a much different picture.

1. Most of these "adverse reactions" are localised pain, much like a flu shot

2. In both cases they said the data from these studies was lower than they expected, being 80% adverse with mRNA... "This number is lower than would be expected from clinical-trial data, which indicated that at least 80% of people would experience injection-site pain."

and 50% for AZ. "Again, clinical-trial data suggest that a higher frequency is more accurate: around 50% of participants had injection-site pain, headache or fatigue, according to data reported to the European Medicines Agency (EMA)."

Having been vaccinated with AZ and submitted my adverse reaction f/up can imagine all sort of responses depending how the questions is framed and the interpretation as well as pain threshold of the individual.

This article shouldn't worry anyone about adverse reactions with any vaccine.
 

6 hours ago, chalawaan said:

Considering the reality that 80% of the prison population are there for non-violent drug use -not dealing just use- then maybe banging people up for using substances that are scientifically proven to be less dangerous than alcohol, and yes, even *that* one is less dangerous than alcohol, if supplied and regulated like alcohol, because the Science and the Lancet say so; then the entire country would be a lot happier and healthier.

 

If 80% of the prison population are drug users, then the message is:

 

1. A lot of people like illicit drugs.

2. Jail doesnt seem to deter them much!

3. Stupid and inhumane laws = jail overcrowding that is now coming back to bite them on that part of their anatomy where the "authorities" seem to keep their brains.

Excellent reasoning and flies in the face of the knee jerk "how dumb is that" reactions.

Big concern is to contain the spread wherever these people go, but expect they can be monitored and controlled through communications and the health volunteers.

What would be great - if acknowledging these folk needn't be there, leads to enlightened changes in the law.  This being the case to some degree in many countries these days, and with positive outcomes.
 

1 hour ago, meechai said:

Healthy folks realize they have a 99.5% chance of easily surviving this

33 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

 

 Covid appears to kill 1.8% of those it infects. That number is also reflected in the USA with 601,000 deaths from under 34 million infections.

Many of those were healthy before.

 

I'm all for vaccination for various reasons. Had my Astra x2 in Sydney and now in Bangkok quarantine. 

Covid IFR (infection fatality rate) has been determined by US CDC to be around 0.6% and vast majority of deaths are people over 70, with co-morbidities. So, 99.5% chance of surviving for healthy people is probably an understatement. More like 99.9%

However, beware of long hauling. The studies are finding about 10% people who survive Covid have symptoms lingering for 3-6 months and sometimes worse.. https://health.ucdavis.edu/coronavirus/covid-19-information/covid-19-long-haulers.html
 

16 minutes ago, Petey11 said:

Found this snippet on India, although cases decreasing WHO say numbers not reliable due to lack of testing in rural areas where they think the numbers are growing. No test, not know but to Modi it looks like they are getting on top of it.

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-virus-cases-lower-who-expert-says-positive-tests-ominously-high-2021-05-17/

Many countries' numbers are not going to be accurate - nature of the beast even with best intentions.

However, they're useful for trends and I can see why the numbers would be falling. Firstly in Europe, USA which were generally the hardest hit per capita, and now much of the world. The Latinos are still doing it tough, but at least seem to have peaked.

Vaccine roll outs can't come soon enough.

31 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

You've made some good points however this is a new ball game they've never before dealt with the UK strain before this.

 

WHO by the way have already advised them that this time it will be far more challenging for them.

 

"In Thailand, as in most affected countries, controlling spread of this variant will be much more challenging than controlling the spread of previous strains, which Ministry of Public Health has done so successfully."

 

https://twitter.com/WHOThailand/status/1380792414764474370

 

Believe the potency of UK strain is overstated, see below, but might be proven wrong.

In any case, Covid is now much under control outside of Greater Bangkok provinces and those prisons. I'm hopeful Thai processes and community discipline will reign it in as previously.

Startling observation for me today. Not seen mentioned in the media, which continues to harp, especially in Australia, (e.g Morrison yesterday - Covid "raging and morphing overseas") is that worldwide Covid daily cases have fallen 40% in the past few weeks. From their high of 904,000 per day in late April to 535,000 yesterday and 565,000 the day before. Why are we not hearing this?

The decrease in India is helping but if you scroll through the various countries' data, it is hard to find those few (Thailand and South Korea in that lot) where the daily cases are not dropping... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries