Trillian
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Posts posted by Trillian
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4 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:Government needs qualified economists. Why not apply? They sorely need some help.
I like my job and who I work for thank you, it's far more interesting, constructive and useful than anything in government.
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5 minutes ago, pineapple01 said:
Hmm, so its back where it started.
And we thank you for your constructive contributions.
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11 minutes ago, 5633572526 said:Government borrowed a trillion baht to provide stimulus. Why do that if you are sitting on piles of money??
Government actually borrowed THB 1.9 trill., that was THB 900 Bill from BOT's Foreign Currency Reserves (note: these are owned by BOT's, not government) and THB 1 trill., 80% of which was then covered by short term bond issuances in the domestic market and a further 20% covered by promissory notes. The annual budget was then trimmed back help finance the interest on the bond issuances.
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5 minutes ago, JonnyF said:So it's OK to lose the last 4 years growth overnight? Mmmm OK....
So let's say 22% of 67%. That's 15%
Lets say 50% of your 8% domestic tourism, that's 4%
That's 19% gone just there before you consider other domestic contraction due to everything being closed for 6 months.
So like I said, forget about an 8% drop. 20% will be more realistic, likely more. But no doubt you'll say that's nothing to worry about, because that's your job.
No it's not OK to give up the past 4 years of export growth, the point is that it's not a major disaster however.
Your math: that's 19% of 67% (not of 100%), for three months out of the past six ONLY, you can't get to 20% for the entire year using those numbers!
My job: is in finance and economics but it's nothing to do with what you think it is, least of all anything to do with "talking up" the Thai economy or the Thai Baht. But it does have a lot to do with dealing in fact which is helpful when discussing these types of subjects on social network forums because generally there's so little of it to be seen in these places.
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2 minutes ago, phantomfiddler said:
Totally incompetent, the whole lot of them. Thailand is much better off without them, and should thank them for retiring since it would appear even the members know they are useless ????
A team is needed who do NOT have their heads up in the clouds, in the sand, or up in that other place where the sun never shines. A new team is needed, who have some compassion for the common working man, and have enough sense not to deprive millions of workers from the opportunity to work for their families.
Ah yes, more support for the rural poor and the impoverished.
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I'm OK if the mods. want to shut this thread down, I think it's run it's course and the debate/discussion component that relates to the topic seems to have been reduced to about zero.
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5 minutes ago, JonnyF said:I thought you'd be on this thread to defend the Thai economy, how predictable.
Do you seriously think that only international tourism is dependent on foreign sources?
What happens when demand for these goods and services falls off the cliff?
Oh look, this is what happens.
https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports
At least domestically Thais are all cashed up and spending loads of money. Oh, wait a minute...
The Thai economy is in freefall.
As said previously, some exports, parts of some exports, use supply chain components that come from overseas.
But part of the bigger answer is in what you wrote, a 22.5% fall to the smallest exports since 2016. That means that exports increased by 22.5% in under four years, it has always been said that a rate of rapid growth such as that was never going to be sustainable, even without the virus! The question that now has to be asked is whether USD 16 bill. in exports per month is a big enough figure to sustain the Thai economy, most people with any knowledge on the subject will tell you that yes it is.
And whilst that 6X.X% figure for exports is correct, it does contain the 11.5% that is international tourism which is also an export.
Finally, as exports fall so do imports but not by the same amount. That creates a scenario where the trade surplus might just become a trade deficit which would result in no new contributions to the Foreign Currency Reserves and might just help weaken THB, a move that will help exports. Get the picture now?
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That's funny, coming from you.
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Just now, Bob12345 said:Exports are also part of "foreign sources".
Some exports, some parts of exports, but not all by any means.
- Machinery including computers: US$40.2 billion (16.4% of total exports)
- Electrical machinery, equipment: $33.9 billion (13.8%)
- Vehicles: $28.9 billion (11.8%)
- Gems, precious metals: $15.7 billion (6.4%)
- Rubber, rubber articles: $15.3 billion (6.3%)
- Plastics, plastic articles: $13.3 billion (5.4%)
- Mineral fuels including oil: $8.5 billion (3.5%)
- Meat/seafood preparations: $6.7 billion (2.7%)
- Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $5.4 billion (2.2%)
- Organic chemicals: $4.6 billion (1.9%)
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2 minutes ago, Snackbar said:
Tourism will return to ‘normal’ in October?
"the last three, who knows"......you do understand what "who knows" means!
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2 minutes ago, checkered flag said:
The emojis were given because you have no idea of reality and want to dictate what others think. Negative emojis mean people don't agree. You are a very fragile and thin skin if these honest comments bother you.
On the other hand positive emojis suggest agreement with the writer and offer encouragement.
Always being positive will get you more agreement (emojis).
BTW Whose keeping count of emojis. Are they that important?
"Always being positive will get you more agreement (emojis).
BTW Whose keeping count of emojis".
It appears you might be!
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Just now, Snackbar said:5% contraction is what they initially said, subsequently creeped up to 8%.
Makes zero sense, no tourism - 20%
And before we're done it may well creep up to 10%. The UK is now forecast to be 10%, that could easily end up being 14%.
There is some domestic tourism currently, some tourist resort locations are very busy on weekends. International tourism is 11.5% of GDP, domestic tourism is 7.5%. The first three months of the year were quite good, the next six will be very bad, the last three, who knows, overall that will give 8% once the other parts of the economy are factored in.
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12 minutes ago, uffe123 said:The military is trained to shoot people, not educated in economics. What do you expect.
What you don't understand is that every government in the world almost has a layer of capabilities that sits permanently just below the government and who manages things like the economy. In the UK and Thailand it's called the Civil Service and comprises permanent secretaries who manage Treasury and Finance functions on behalf of government. Government ministers are not expected or required to be experts in this or that, they are politicians who make decisions based on well researched and modelled facts, data and options presented to them by the permanent layer.
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2 minutes ago, yellowboat said:When 78% of your GDP comes from foreign sources, and they no longer are buying, what can you do?
It's too late, but if cha cha had allowed more foreign investment and did not hassle tourists so MUCH, things may not be so bad.
What 78% is this, only 11.5% comes from international tourism?
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Just now, thaibeachlovers said:
IMO that proves it's all BS. If it were actually necessary wouldn't it be from now?
Perhaps they think it needs time to get the message across to everyone before the police start fining people.
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4 minutes ago, faraday said:
^^^
Oh, are we grammar police today, Iona??
????
Do yourself a favour and read Hitch Hikers Guide to the Galaxy by Douglas Adams, it's an excellent book that I'm sure you'll enjoy.
Sorry but I'm not playing with the herd today, yesterday was fun but today I have to do some work, byee.
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14 hours ago, tribalfusion001 said:
No need to wear a mask outside if no local transmissions.
How do we know there are no local transmissions, we are told daily by people on this forum that the Thai numbers are not true and that really there are many many unreported cases? And only this week an Egyptian soldier was found to have gone shopping in Rayong and later tested as positive. AND, the borders between Thailand and its neighbours are porous, there are literally thousands of people who are transiting back and forth between Myanmar and Thailand and bypassing the checkpoints. I work part time for an NGO/charity and I get to meet a lot of people from the rural villages and the mountains, I know for certain this back and forth traffic is taking place. So you say no local transmission, personally I wouldn't want to bet any money on that whatsoever.
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14 hours ago, Bob A Kneale said:
Make up your mind! This is what you posted...
"In truth this is more about a handful of posters that another poster alluded to earlier than about emoticons themselves..".
Seems that it's you who, to use your disparaging words, "doesn't get it"
The word "more" does not imply exclusivity, I'm guessing Anglo Saxon English is not your first language!
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8 hours ago, owl sees all said:
That's not so far-fetched. If this group issued its own currency backed by gold, the dollar, and in fact all western currencies would come under great pressure.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) was formed with that as one of its objectives, Thailand is a founding member with Special Drawing Rights (SDR's), one of its objectives is to wean member nations off USD based trade settlement. https://www.adb.org/
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8 hours ago, kingofthemountain said:
Of course it was the interest (Politic first in the cold war times, then economic) of these countries
to do Thailand a dynamic and strong country, but they could have had the same result with less
efforts and money if the Thais were better,
Unfortunately the ''elite'' of the country, mostly sino thais, is more busy to fill their deep pockets by any way possible than to develop a good and sustainable economic grow, and the big mass of the ''serfs'' doesn't have the tools to understand or create something.
The famous ''middle class'' is still a work in progress.
Can you name only one thing that the Thais have created or invented in the last 50 years?
I don't come with excuses for someone or something, i just try to be realist.
If you are indeed a realist you must work only with facts. "The famous ''middle class'' is still a work in progress". That's untrue, the rapid growth of the middle classes in Thailand is one of its big success stories, by some measures there are now 49 million people in that category out of a population of 70 million! Whatever the true number is it is huge and that group has grown rapidly over the past few decades and by any analysis it is responsible for much of the country's growth:
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/thailand/overview
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4 minutes ago, ubonjoe said:
No office can do the translations. They just certify them.
Yes sorry, I mis-read what you wrote, "translation certifications".
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Sorry to go against the flow on this but the ChiangMai MOFA office (it's actually in Mae Rim) is not allowed to do translations or make recommendations for them, we did ask them.
That office does a same day service which is in at 9:30 am, out by 4pm, the cost is double the normal certification fee, 800 baht vs 400 baht.
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41 minutes ago, 007 RED said:
phungo .... FYI.... You can only get a translation of your marriage certificate etc certified by that Legalisation Division of the Department of Consular Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs which is located at 123 Chaeng Watthana Road, Bangkok 10210. The Legalisation Division does not have any offices located in the 'sticks' of in local Amphur offices as another member has indicated - maybe confused with Thai ID and passports issuing.
As another member has indicated, there are freelance translators who will approach you as you enter the building. However, if you go up the escalator to the 2nd floor, immediately in front of you there is a small translation shop.
The bonus of using this shop is that they already have 'translation templates' for most, if not all circumstances, and more importantly, the people who check the translation are employees of the Legalisation Division who do the translation checking during their 'free time'. As a result, the translation is very unlikely to have any errors and be rejected. Their charges are compatible with what you will pay at most translator shops in BKK, about 400/500 BHT per page of A4 (depending upon complexity), and they will for an extra charge get the document(s) certified and posted back to you by EMS, or you can collect them if you prefer.
Hope this helps.
The Legalization Division has an office in the Mae Rim Amphur building, ground floor, I've used it three times in the past six months, for legalization of foreign documents that have been translated. Mae Rim is just North of Chiang Mai.
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1 minute ago, sead said:
Nothing new to us. We know border police are corrupt. We know you can buy all kind of visas. And you know you are all corrupt. So what's the isdue here?
This is not about border police, the borders are long and porous and it's very difficult if not impossible to police every meter of it.
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Confusion amid reports Thailand's top economic team to resign
in Thailand News
Posted
Anyone who applied that was part of the official workforce (35 million people) and was making social security payments or their employer was. Those people who were working in the grey or black economies, working cash in hand and not paying SSC or tax, did not, which was why such a large number of people applied at the outset and then withdrew their applications.