wadman

Far too much is being made of the "backlog" in orders at Boeing and Airbus. Yes, they do have a big backlog. They could of course just add more production capacity (more production lines), ***IF*** they were confident that orders will continue pouring in at the same rate in the future. But they are not confident, so they don't spend the billions to add more production lines.

IMO it isn't so much a case of who will win this tariff trade war, and which side will fold first. 1. It's overwhelmingly obvious by now that America (and the euros to some degree) want to contain China. Trump in his first term put tariffs on China, Biden did too, and now Trump has put even more tariffs. It's just like a extortion/blackmailing/protection money kinda of situation: once you pay, there will almost be more demands in the future. 2. 15% (400+ billion) of China exports to the US is good chunk of money. But none of that export is in truly high profit (profit for China) products, as I have detailed here 3. China is/was coerced into buying soybean, LNG from the US. LNG is especially a costly one, as they have access to cheap Russian gas and oil. 4. So overall, the economic benefit of this 15% of exports isn't nearly as big as you would think at face value. China had already reduced US exports as a PERCENTAGE of their total exports (from something like 30% down to 15%). No need to think they can't survive cutting the remaining 15%. 5. That 15% US exports is 3% of China GDP. So even if all of that were to disappear, the China GDP would go down by 3%. Except it wouldn't, because the China government is sitting on tons of reserve cash, and they can easily afford to use that to cushion to blow. 6. Both the Republicans and Democrats in the US see China's economic strength as a long term problem, and have so for years. So I don't think the US will "fold" either. They just don't like the way Trump went about it. You would think, that with all the anti-China propaganda released by the west, it would be easy to marshall a coalition against China in terms of trade. But Trump did the exact opposite: he pissed off everybody.

There are some cases where Chinese nationals have their passport taken for "safekeeping" by their employer/government. One fairly high level bank manager told me that her passport had been taken for safekeeping, same with other managers at a high level. Reason: so they don't embezzle a big bunch of money, and then skip the country.

China isn't going to start a war with Taiwan because of US tariffs. Even if the economic situation with the US escalates, there is still the economic ties with the rest of the world. The EU would cut back trade drastically, if China were to invade. As would Japan, South Korea, etc.

Good point. Usually in a recession, inflation goes down. But quite possibly not if Trump keeps all those tariffs in place.

The US economy was doing just fine before Trump started all this tariff nonsense. So why the big need to cut interest rates?

When the recession/depression comes, inflation will be even lower. Things may even get cheaper.

What one also has to understand is that the true trade imbalance between China-US is not nearly as lopsided as it may seem. 1. Americans buy a lot of Chinese products, made in China, but directed by American companies. Such as iphones, Nikes, Disney toys, etc. A pair of Nikes at 20 USD factory price gets sold for 200 USD at retail in the US. Americans make the big profits, China is used for cheap labor. An iphone might have a factory price of 700 USD, and it's recorded as a 700 USD export from China to the US. But many of the components inside the iphone aren't made in China. 2. Americans don't really buy high end Chinese branded products from companies such as BYD, GWM, Geely (EVs), or Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo (phones and electronics), or Lining, Erke, Anta (shoes and clothing). This is where the real money and value is in Chinese exports, but by and large Americans don't them for a variety of reasons (mostly because they have been blocked by the American government on "national security" grounds). 3. America runs a trade surplus on services with China, as they do with many countries. 4. There are quite a few American companies that operate inside China at the retail level. Think McDonald's, Burger King, KFC, Starbucks, Walmart, etc. Comparatively very few Chinese companies sell at the retail level in America. One report estimates the annual revenue from these American companies at 600 billion USD, while the Chinese counterparts take in 65 billion USD.

All that for 10 rmb per pineapple?

I don't do politics, they can monitor all they want.

There is a certain amount of tongue in cheek in my post. Beijing itself is too cold for pineapples. China isn't really making agriculture and farming that big of a priority (other than what's needed for national security), manufacturing brings in more money.

Letsvpn is the one that has never gone down. May or may not be monitored by the government, but as long as you aren't politically active, who cares

Like I already told you in my last post, all you need is to know 1 person with VPN access in China. You can then use his VPN access to install a VPN on your own phone or computer.

The average educated Chinese is very aware of VPNs, they are not stupid. All it takes is for someone in China to know 1 person who has a VPN in China. He can then use that VPN to download and install his own VPN. A typical Chinese person has tons of friends, family, coworkers, acquaintances. I am telling you, I am in China right now, using a VPN, and I can access YouTube just fine! In the words of Elon: you are truly a more on.

Or by using a VPN. I watch YouTube all the time in China.