AnotherFarang8

You are correct that the total debt is big too but creditors cannot call it all at once. As for servicing the debt, Thailand is quite capable, given its reserves. In the future a lot will depend on which countries will be devaluing their currencies faster. Then again Sri Lanka defaulted on its debts just recently, why couldn’t Thailand do it. As well as others. It happens all the time.

0.5 Tr baht is like 15 billion USD, but they have 240 billion of reserves, hardly a huge problem.

Thailand is in a quite good position, it has 240 billion USD reserves to keep baht from falling too quickly which is going to slow down the inflation rate but cannot stop it from increasing. Oil hitting $150 later this year and $200 next year will find its way into prices one way or another. As for countries running on deficit budgets, they are screwed.

We enter a hyper-inflationary multi-year period. Exporting countries around the world have amassed trillions of currency reserves. They are starting to feel urgency to secure energy resources front running everyone else. Those money printing excesses of the US are going to come home to roost now in the form of constant price rises for energy, food, etc. Oil companies stock will benefit hugely if history is our guide.

He tried to negotiate peacefully for many years, the final attempt was made in December 2021 but the West ignored Russia’s interests as always dismissing them as insignificant. Now it’s going to be the hard way. The West is going to learn to lose.

That figure of losses is a complete fake number, by the way. You can only come across it in western ministry of truth outlets. In the same articles where invincible Ukrainian cyborgs are winning. The reality is much different. But it appears virtual reality is more important until it isn’t.

The guy on the left of the photo doesn’t look convinced.

Serbia and Hungary are the only countries in continental Europe where leaders try to be independent and responsible for their nations’ future. The rest of that land mass was hijacked and is on a suicidal path right now, with puppets at the wheel.

Governments with dollar reserves, which Thailand is one of, will be subsidizing rising costs by selling those reserves to support local currency to somewhat offset high inflation. Thailand has been doing this in the past months to keep baht from falling too much. This will drive energy dollar prices up faster and higher as more dollars released from state coffers will now chase limited energy supply. Dollar hyperinflation is the end game, US is the net debtor of HUGE amounts, that debt can only be relieved by hyperinflation.

The cost of energy and food will rise world wide though. Thailand will manage better than many others as it tends to value its trade relationships with all countries.

Meanwhile those nut heads in Europe have agreed to embargo Russian oil. Waiting for oil to reach $150 in 1..2..3 weeks or months? Your pick. Hyperinflation is the end game. Russia will export less for a higher price getting the same revenue.

This is reasonable advice. Compare to politicians in Europe who recommend their voters not to take a shower every day to save on heating, due to the sanctions mess they themselves created.

Re: tourists. The coming high season will not be that high even if all restrictions are lifted (which is not a guarantee). Economic crash (worse than a normal recession) will wipe the pent up demand when people will be spending the money they saved for vacations on basic necessities, loan payments, etc. More countries will be in fierce competition for rare tourists. Chinese tourists might not arrive at all.

Oh how the turns have tabled. As i said in March and April, the world is coming to realize that dollars, backed by nothing but strong-arming of smaller nations by the US, which turned out pretty toothless to directly fight Russia, can have competition in other currencies. Russian Ruble is backed by natural resources. Thailand needs Russian currency to buy oil and even resell it to those dumb wits in the west who reject this “undemocratic aggressive” oil, pocketing good commissions in the process. Yay for Thailand!

Thailand is already playing an important role by staying neutral. Setting an example for other asian nations. Guess it learned a lesson from WWII not to take sides when superpowers are fighting. In this new world war between Russia and the collective West (US, UK and their lapdog Europe) Thailand needs to keep trade relations with everyone to survive the coming economic collapse and this time Thailand is doing a good job.

Waiting for airfares to go down to pre-covid times is futile. The cost of fuel is up 2x. Besides, planes of European companies must now take longer costlier routes to Asia as they can’t fly over Russia due to mutual sanctions.

Politicians never admit own faults, always shifting blame to someone else. Just look who Biden is blaming for high inflation in US. Thailand is doing nothing unusual here.

It’s because they know that US will be in dire straits come November: economy crashing, inflation in double digits, political impasse after Republicans take both houses, deficit spending soaring, riots in the streets. It’s much easier to negotiate terms with a weakened partner.

Depression is in the cards. The difference to the 1930s is money supply is not tied to hard asset any more. Fed will do what it does best, print money. It’s a slow comforting death compared to a sharp economy contraction shock. Resulting in a stagflation - inflationary depression while in the 1930s it was a deflationary one.

The next few months will be Fed tightening money supply by raising rates to curb inflation. Negative GDP growth will force sharp reversal of this policy after November elections (possibly sooner than that). This is when the mother of all Fed’s quantitative easings will be unleashed, to rescue economy. Countries have until the end of this year to diversify their US treasuries or lose huge. One of the things national central banks can do, having the mandate of inflation control, is support their national currencies to keep gas and food prices stable. Precisely what Bank of Thailand is doing.

Countries are now in a highly competitive race to get rid of USD reserves over the next few months before gates of inflation hell release a tsunami and make those reserves worthless. China started selling their US treasuries a few days ago. So it’s a smart move from Thailand to offload state coffers of quickly depreciating risky currency to the next fool.

Now that European countries have begun to order gas from Russia in Rubles, as they obviously don’t want their energy-dependent industries shut down and return to stone age, Thailand can rest assured that its economy will regain support from the influx of Russian tourists later this year as they will start to enjoy the benefits of their strengthening currency.

Too many dollars and euros have been created, backed by nothing. Those dollars have ended as currency reserves of countries, a so called export of inflation. Now countries will be in a race to spend these reserves on resources before reserves are arbitrarily frozen by central banks of US and Europe for “wrong” behavior and before resources are scooped up by competition. Prices of resources constitute a significant part in the prices of final products. As the race is only starting and currency reserves in the world are very large, price inflation can be expected to accelerate at mind-boggling rates.

Lol. Embargo would push lifestyles in the west 100 years backwards. For those who will survive a die-off from famine, diseases, roaming marauders, because many will not make it through. April is going to be interesting as European populations, hit by economic sanctions against Russia that backfired, will take their discontent to the streets en masse.

Relevance of western ratings (S&P, Fitch) and USD as the world reserve currency is under serious threat as Russia has announced selling natural gas to the list of unfriendly countries for rubles, Saudi Arabia planning to sell oil for Chinese Yuan. This is a multi-currency system in the making, effectively a collapse of the Bretton Woods system of USD trade hegemony. US and Europe have effectively defaulted on their obligations freezing Russian currency reserves, making USD and Euro unreliable currencies to hold. Watch the great bank run as other countries begin to diversify their reserves.