AnotherFarang8

2 hours ago, billd766 said:

It is a huge problem unfortunately.

 

While you may think it is ONLY like 15 billion USD, This is only the budget for 2023, there are no figures that I have seen that state how much Thailand has to repay in loans this year.

 

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/national-government-debt#:~:text=Thailand National Government Debt reached,bn in the previous month.

 

Key information about Thailand National Government Debt

Thailand National Government Debt reached 265.0 USD bn in Mar 2022, compared with 266.8 USD bn in the previous month.
Thailand National Government Debt data is updated monthly, available from Oct 1997 to Mar 2022.
The data reached an all-time high of 266.8 USD bn in Feb 2022 and a record low of 6.3 USD bn in Nov 1997.

 

Now compare that with the $240 billion of reserves, and that $240 Bn doesn't look quite so impressive to me.

You are correct that the total debt is big too but creditors cannot call it all at once. As for servicing the debt, Thailand is quite capable, given its reserves. In the future a lot will depend on which countries will be devaluing their currencies faster. Then again Sri Lanka defaulted on its debts just recently, why couldn’t Thailand do it. As well as others. It happens all the time.

6 hours ago, billd766 said:

Whilst it has 240 billion USD reserves to keep baht from falling too quickly, the thing that wasn't mentioned was how much debt the country has. How much loans have to be repaid and when,

 

Next years budget I believe is underfunded by more that 0.5 Tr baht which will have to be borrowed from somewhere and added to the nation debt that the Thai people will have to pay.

 

That will be my son and the next 2 or 3 generations. Every year the government borrows more and more instead of cutting expenditure, especially on the "sacred" military.

 

0.5 Tr baht is like 15 billion USD, but they have 240 billion of reserves, hardly a huge problem.

Thailand is in a quite good position, it has 240 billion USD reserves to keep baht from falling too quickly which is going to slow down the inflation rate but cannot stop it from increasing. Oil hitting $150 later this year and $200 next year will find its way into prices one way or another. As for countries running on deficit budgets, they are screwed.

We enter a hyper-inflationary multi-year period. Exporting countries around the world have amassed trillions of currency reserves. They are starting to feel urgency to secure energy resources front running everyone else. Those money printing excesses of the US are going to come home to roost now in the form of constant price rises for energy, food, etc. Oil companies stock will benefit hugely if history is our guide.

11 hours ago, jcmj said:

Diplomacy and Putin don’t seem to work out well. His way or you pay hell. Not a fan of war but talking to him must be like speaking to a general we know. In one ear out the other unless it gives him more power. ????

He tried to negotiate peacefully for many years, the final attempt was made in December 2021 but the West ignored Russia’s interests as always dismissing them as insignificant. Now it’s going to be the hard way. The West is going to learn to lose.

The guy on the left of the photo doesn’t look convinced.

1 minute ago, Hummin said:

The prices will skyrocketing and what will the farmers get back even prices is skyrocketing? Not much is my best guess.

 

Fertilizer is more than doubled the last few months.

 

46 baht for 95 Gasolin now?

Governments with dollar reserves, which Thailand is one of, will be subsidizing rising costs by selling those reserves to support local currency to somewhat offset high inflation. Thailand has been doing this in the past months to keep baht from falling too much. This will drive energy dollar prices up faster and higher as more dollars released from state coffers will now chase limited energy supply. Dollar hyperinflation is the end game, US is the net debtor of HUGE amounts, that debt can only be relieved by hyperinflation.

6 hours ago, micmichd said:

The population of Northern Europe will be very happy to freeze and walk in the next winter. I'm glad that I don't live there anymore. 

The cost of energy and food will rise world wide though. Thailand will manage better than many others as it tends to value its trade relationships with all countries.

Meanwhile those nut heads in Europe have agreed to embargo Russian oil. Waiting for oil to reach $150 in 1..2..3 weeks or months? Your pick. Hyperinflation is the end game. Russia will export less for a higher price getting the same revenue.

This is reasonable advice.

Compare to politicians in Europe who recommend their voters not to take a shower every day to save on heating, due to the sanctions mess they themselves created.

Re: tourists. The coming high season will not be that high even if all restrictions are lifted (which is not a guarantee). Economic crash (worse than a normal recession) will wipe the pent up demand when people will be spending the money they saved for vacations on basic necessities, loan payments, etc. More countries will be in fierce competition for rare tourists. Chinese tourists might not arrive at all.

1 hour ago, SatEng said:

Thailand is even looking to implement the MIR payment card to get around the financial sanctions imposed by the West.

Oh how the turns have tabled. As i said in March and April, the world is coming to realize that dollars, backed by nothing but strong-arming of smaller nations by the US, which turned out pretty toothless to directly fight Russia, can have competition in other currencies. Russian Ruble is backed by natural resources. Thailand needs Russian currency to buy oil and even resell it to those dumb wits in the west who reject this “undemocratic aggressive” oil, pocketing good commissions in the process. Yay for Thailand!

Waiting for airfares to go down to pre-covid times is futile. The cost of fuel is up 2x. Besides, planes of European companies must now take longer costlier routes to Asia as they can’t fly over Russia due to mutual sanctions.

25 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

I wonder what the next excuse might be?

Politicians never admit own faults, always shifting blame to someone else. Just look who Biden is blaming for high inflation in US. Thailand is doing nothing unusual here.

It’s because they know that US will be in dire straits come November: economy crashing, inflation in double digits, political impasse after Republicans take both houses, deficit spending soaring, riots in the streets. It’s much easier to negotiate terms with a weakened partner.

1 hour ago, John Drake said:

If the Fed does this, there will be a lynch mob with pitch forks outside the Eccles building. Powell, Kashkari and the rest of them will likely already have taken a flight out of town to Argentina. Hyperinflation is far more revolution-inducing than a recession. So I bet we get a depression instead that will subsidize people with a safety net. The quality and standard of living will collapse, albeit without as many dire consequences as hyperinflation.

Depression is in the cards. The difference to the 1930s is money supply is not tied to hard asset any more. Fed will do what it does best, print money. It’s a slow comforting death compared to a sharp economy contraction shock. Resulting in a stagflation - inflationary depression while in the 1930s it was a deflationary one.

49 minutes ago, morrobay said:

So US '$ reserves will be worthless in a few months according to you. And that is why Thailand is buying baht with dollars in order to artificially keep the baht overvalued. Ok I will believe anything you say. https://www.reuters.com/article/economics-dollar-reserves-idUSKCN2LY1O2

The next few months will be Fed tightening money supply by raising rates to curb inflation. Negative GDP growth will force sharp reversal of this policy after November elections (possibly sooner than that). This is when the mother of all Fed’s quantitative easings will be unleashed, to rescue economy. Countries have until the end of this year to diversify their US treasuries or lose huge. One of the things national central banks can do, having the mandate of inflation control, is support their national currencies to keep gas and food prices stable. Precisely what Bank of Thailand is doing.

Countries are now in a highly competitive race to get rid of USD reserves over the next few months before gates of inflation hell release a tsunami and make those reserves worthless. China started selling their US treasuries a few days ago. So it’s a smart move from Thailand to offload state coffers of quickly depreciating risky currency to the next fool.

Now that European countries have begun to order gas from Russia in Rubles, as they obviously don’t want their energy-dependent industries shut down and return to stone age, Thailand can rest assured that its economy will regain support from the influx of Russian tourists later this year as they will start to enjoy the benefits of their strengthening currency.

Too many dollars and euros have been created, backed by nothing. Those dollars have ended as currency reserves of countries, a so called export of inflation. Now countries will be in a race to spend these reserves on resources before reserves are arbitrarily frozen by central banks of US and Europe for “wrong” behavior and before resources are scooped up by competition. Prices of resources constitute a significant part in the prices of final products. As the race is only starting and currency reserves in the world are very large, price inflation can be expected to accelerate at mind-boggling rates.

27 minutes ago, jollyhangmon said:

 

... dream on tovaritzky, nobody will buy your khrap for rubblish ... e.m.b.a.r.g.o.  in 3 - 2 - 1 //

 

Lol. Embargo would push lifestyles in the west 100 years backwards. For those who will survive a die-off from famine, diseases, roaming marauders, because many will not make it through. April is going to be interesting as European populations, hit by economic sanctions against Russia that backfired, will take their discontent to the streets en masse.