GStewart70
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Posts posted by GStewart70
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2 hours ago, Walker88 said:The famous Yogi Berra quip about predictions (Predictions are difficult, especially about the future) might not always hold true.
Given the fact it looks as if boosters---at least one and perhaps yearly---will be necessary, Covid and Thailand are unlikely to have begun their final breakup.
As it is, vaccine supplies on order to Thailand leave a gap from mid October until December, so a good portion of the population will remain un-vaxxed. Second, many of the vaxxes in Thailand are Sinovac, which research shows (another poster above put a very recent study) is the worst against Delta and breakthrough infections. Third, if boosters are necessary, Thailand will be standing in line again, as countries with lots of doses will take care of their own people before donating/selling to Thailand.
Thus, I suspect even if there is a relaxation of Covid closure measures, they will be back again by year end, and likely next year, too, as the vaxxed Thais begin to lose their immunity as the effects of administered vaxxes wane, and boosters are not yet available.
I would think this may well turn out to be the case.
Scotland had over 5000 cases yesterday, one of the highest ever, and all the wrong metrics are beginning to show upturns, all over the UK, as schools return.
UK booster campaign starting in September as well.
Anyone thinking 'party time' is coming back to Thailand anytime soon is sadly misguided.
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5 minutes ago, Blumpie said:
As I've written time and time again, nobody is going to Thailand for a care free holiday. People going in for reuniting are what is driving this, little else.
If you were to take your family on a vacation to Thailand for no other reason to stare at the sea, well, it's very very very foolish. And I have little doubt there is nobody here who falls into that category.
Not included in your list is what you have to do to get back home. Testing, quarantining, etc.
Until vaccines are widely available there will be no revival in the tourism industry, full stop. IT's only August, you have about one more year of this. Get cozy.
Thanks for repeating my post.
I am well aware of all the hastles. I posted them.
It was a post aimed at the deluded fantasists who think that BKK is suddenly going to be welcoming millions of visitors.
If i can return to Thailand in one year without an SAS type logistical obstical course, i would be delighted.
Personally, i honestly think this is going to drag on for years.
I hope i am proved wrong.
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51 minutes ago, Olmate said:Who,s going to spend a few weeks at the movies?
See below.
Would you want to be the travel agent trying to sell a holiday to Thailand for a few weeks?
You also get a free draw at the airport to see if your trip can be supersized to include a two week stay in a hospital separated from your family.
Even Don King couldn't sell this mess.
Two chances, slim and none.
Slim's just left town.
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21 hours ago, kinyara said:
There is a business model that usually gets exposed quite quickly in a downturn when there are no investors to attract or buyers to flip the business to. It always seems to be based on relentless self promotion and marketing hype. Not in the least bit surprised they are no more.
I played a pool league match in Retox. Beautiful table.
It was an excellent night, lovely meal at half time.
Very well run bar and used to organise celebrity sportstar nights.
If/when tourist volumes can return i would think someone would try to get the team back together.
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4 minutes ago, Kadilo said:
We said.
Fortunately apart from this platform no one probably gives a hoot what they say and it won’t influence the decision making one iota.
Fortunately, a lot of us are in a position to choose where to live.
I have a funny feeling the Thailand fan boys don't have a plan B.
They burnt their bridges years ago and bet the house, literally, on their titty bar or ex bargirl wife.
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1 hour ago, Kadilo said:I don’t know, I never interviewed them on their way out.
Then why say Phuket tourists were happy? You don't know.
No serious volume of people are going to travel half way across the world for a holiday with the hoop jumping involved.
Cinema admissions, in the UK and US, are just over 50% of their pre pandemic levels, but millions are going to spend weeks going through the endurance test, expense and possible forced incarceration, for a few weeks in Thailand?
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53 minutes ago, cocoonclub said:
According to the Scottish government, seems to be 65%, see here: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Anyway, that’s not the point so let’s not argue what source is right.
The topic is:
And the country will be in a world of trouble if it goes through with reopening and exposing its unvaccinated people to the Delta variant. We will see more deaths, flooded hospitals, and years of burdens on the economy and healthcare system due to long covid patients that can’t work and require care which the taxpayer has to pay for.
Rather than opening up they should provide economic relief and enough quality vaccines and enforce a proper lockdown.
Covid/Delta isn't going away. Full stop.
UK is getting 30000 plus infections per day.
Mainly under 40s, but the UK is highly fully vaccinated.
Hospitalisations are starting too grow, we're not in autumn yet.
Israel are now hoping their booster campaign is calming infections.
You can deploy lockdowns and super douper vaccines till the cows come home but until this virus weakens countries are always going to have issues.
Thailand does not have the luxury to keep small and medium sized businesses closed.
Doesn't matter what you or I think. It's a fact.
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1 hour ago, cocoonclub said:
You need to look at the number of fully vaccinated. One jab seems to be as effective as Sino-x.
As I wrote above, I believe countries should be able to Reopen once some 90% have been fully vaccinated with something that is not Sino-x. The 5-10% left should be a small enough number for the hospital system to handle and to reduce the risk of further mutations, and it’s probably not avoidable given that some people can’t take the vaccine due to health reasons.
That’s still way to go — even counties like Israel and Singapore achieve only 80%. The only outliers are mini-countries like Gibraltar.
And that’s why Scotland is right still looking at cases and thinking about restrictions again.
80% of Scotland is doubled jabbed.
Study out today saying both Pfizer and AZ wane by about 10% after about 6 months.
That's why the UK has prepared a booster regime starting in September.
If your waiting for 90% of Thailand to be fully vaccinated before opening up then the country is in a world of trouble.
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2 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:
Large studies of Corona-vac efficacy against symptomatic infection and severe sickness done in few countries and reported in the Lancet study before Delta. You right that larger studies against Delta are needed but doubt that are being pursued with earnest as many countries are putting more focus on booster or mixing vaccines. Vaccine manufacturers are also re-designing the original vaccine against future variants which we can expect to be more troublesome. Corona-vac studies are patchy, but we can't ignore its usefulness.
Personally, i think the best study China could help with is WHO scientists being allowed unhindered access to the Wuhan labs to find out for the future good of humanity, how and why this horror was visited on the world.
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55 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:
Media Bias/Fact Check is described as an amateur attempt at categorizing media bias and the founder Van Zandt is am armchair media analyst and their method non-scientific.
Everyone knows China has a free press.
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12 minutes ago, aussiexpat said:I wasn't comparing to elsewhere. I assume each countries testing approach is the same in the last 7 days as it was in the previous 7 days. So thailand cases have dropped, Japan, Malaysia, UK and USA has risen (whatever their testing approach)
You shouldn't assume anything.
UK tests nearly a million people daily.
Thailand about 50,000 plus a few instant tests they got off the BOGOF aisle at Makro.
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Step by step ........
Groundhog Day until 202?
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9 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:
The Ministry of Public Health has revealed that the Delta #COVID19 variant can spread as fast as chicken pox, so the vaccine is not enough to stop the spread of the virus. It is necessary to apply public health measures along with vaccinations.
https://twitter.com/prdthailand/status/1430349209702526981
And BKK is going to be rolling out the red carpet to dirty farangs in Q4.........
This is going to drift on and on and on.
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2 minutes ago, Kadilo said:
Yeah and mine
Oh right so you made it up to be dramatic.
fair enough
No i made it up so someone with a little literacy could understand it.
Sorry, you didn't.
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4 minutes ago, Kadilo said:
Where have they said that?
There's a question mark in my original post.
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53 minutes ago, cocoonclub said:
Opening up a country that has Delta and a super low vaccination rate (of which you may want to deduct the Sino-x jabs) is suicide. What do they think has suddenly changed since 1, 2, or 3 months ago? It’s not that enough people have been fully vaccinated since then or that the virus has suddenly said goodbye, I’m leaving. This will end in tears, with hospitals breaking down and more people dying.
I’m saying it again, the only currently available endgame is to live with COVID, but for that you need 90-95% of the population fully vaccinated, and on the way there lockdowns and restrictions and economic relief measures. Depending on hospital/ICU capacity, the 90-95% may be reduced a bit—the right number is something epidemiologists need to determine, and take into account that there are other patients requiring ICU and hospital beds too.
I can’t see that we’ve reached a peak and numbers are declining. Deaths seem to stay around 200-300 per day.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-58318695
Sturgeon, in Scotland, is already warning of some restrictions resuming if cases keep climbing. This is the 24th August, still a few months from autumn, let alone winter.
Something like over 90% of the Scottish have had at least one jab.
Thailand's is just going to bin the restrictions?
Madness.
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49 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:
So you think the lockdown will (or should) continue for up to a year - and be harder??
It's not what anybody thinks that matters, its what delta will do.
Social restrictions should not be released until a high percentage of the population is double jabbed.
Otherwise, it will be a complete waste of time and restrictions will have to be reinstated.
Personally, i think this reopening to tourism is a red herring to keep the peasantry happy.
When the details emerge it will be a shuffling of the hurdles.
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56 minutes ago, Jumbo1968 said:
Can’t keep locked down for ever, let’s move on, Covid isn’t going away vaccinations or no vaccinations, over 30000 in the U.K. on a daily basis yet no call for further lockdowns.
That's because the UK has a very high vaccination rate. Thailand is months away from a 2 dose high vaccination rate.
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6 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:
I have a fair amount of experience with Thai labour protection laws, I employ close to 3800 Thais at the moment.
How many do you employ?
Thai labour laws are far better at protecting and more importantly, compensating employees that lose their jobs, even those that are dismissed than equivalent laws in the West, most of which are controlled through ombudsmen or other methods which render them even more malleable than in Thailand.
FYI, business owners have been compensated a number of times and been given financial support for wages and operating costs while being made to close during the COVID-19 crisis, so you are wrong again there.
Interesting to hear from someone with some real world Thai employment experience and I don't mean the TVF titty bar owners association.
I always note that your posts carry a high degree of scepticism of all things Thai.
Now they will carry that bit more weight because you have everyday, real world experience of Thailand and your role as an employer.
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52 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:I don’t believe they’ll go straight up through Oct, I also see no other posters saying this, can you show an example?
I agree, i would have thought that a real first wave starting in April, combined with lockdown lite, would be beginning to run out of steam 5 months later.
It's when schools and social interactions restart that we will see how effective Thailand's vaccination campaign is.
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8 minutes ago, oldcpu said:A fairly large number of Phuket locals have received two jabs of a vaccine (352,343 people as of 22-August-2021) which I suspect is mostly Sinovac. If one counts both 1-jab and 2-jabs then as of 22-August, then 428,114 is the official number of people vaccinated in Phuket.
As for Sinovac not working well against Delta for preventing infections, sadly the same is also true for 1-jab of AstraZeneca, where its 8 to 10 weeks in between the 1st and 2nd jab of AstraZeneca. Further, Thailand struggles to get AstraZeneca deliveries, and hopefully the recent news of 60-million AZ doses to be delivered by end of year-2021 is accurate, as I think many are skeptical. I have also read articles (Israel for example) where Pfizer is not stopping Delta infections.
Back to Thailand : given the AstraZeneca shortage, and given ongoing studies that have indicated a Sinovac followed by AstraZeneca jab, is superior to BOTH 2-jabs Sinovac and superior to 1-jab AstraZeneca, its good to see the Thai government trying to recover from a far too slow start in vaccinating the country by offering this mix. A caution thou - any one thinking of traveling internationally, this mix may not be recognized, as vaccination typess are becoming a political football between international governments.
Phuket, despite its increasing # of cases every week, is still managing wrt hospitals/hospitels for those infected, compared for example to some cases in Bangkok, where some hospitals in Bangkok were overloaded and could not handle the # of people infected.
I think the hospitals tell the story, and for those willing to look (with help from someone who can read Thai ) there are figures available for Phuket where one can see the infected/hospital situation in Phuket to a certain degree - and it IS far better shape than some of the more heavily hit provinces in Thailand. ... That suggests the vaccines (Sinovac w/2-jabs and AstraZeneca) while FAR from being as good as the mRNA vaccines are helping - and are saving lives.
Having Sinovac save lives must really iritate the China haters, who love to put down anything Chinese.
Zzzzzzzzzzz................
Yeah imagine hating the country that has never apologised for unleashing a new virus that has killed, left long lasting effects, and destroyed the emotional and health lives of millions.
Then add insult to injury when WHO are impedied from finding out what actually happened in Wuhan, in order to make sure it doesn't happen again.
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1 hour ago, Eric Loh said:
China like Australia and New Zealand has a zero tolerance policy and imposed draconian lockdown measures even when few positive numbers surfaced. These countries shared similar low positive infections. No doubting that they did a good job with this policy.
Better keep up with current affairs.
Australia and NZ are now acknowledging they will have to live with covid.
A child of six could have told them that, especially when delta arrived.
Rioting in Australia over the weekend.
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3 minutes ago, HashBrownHarry said:
I agree it is great to have options.
I have 3 properties in Thailand thank you very much, one at a beach resort town, one in northern thailand and house in central thailand, is that ok?
I also have property in my home country, is that ok too?
Hope you approve.
Now, now Harry no need to get touchy.
Glad to hear your not a failure.
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25 minutes ago, HashBrownHarry said:
lol - did that touch a nerve?
It's good to have options Harry.
Owning property in your home country and being able to travel and stay anywhere in the world, for as long as you like is real freedom.
I always find on this forum that the guys living in poverty in Isaan, having burned there bridges at home are the strongest fan boys of Thailand because they ain't got a plan B.
Now Harry you forgot to tell me where you live in Thailand?
The Hit And Run Restaurant "review" Thread
in Pattaya
Posted
The only decent indian i have found is Indian by Nature in Jomtein.
Everest, opposite Retox, isn't bad. Nice family from Napal and their daily specials are decent.
I normally add in a portion of onion banji's.
To be honest, the Hideaway's chicken masala can be very good.
For more western tastes, Retox's chicken tikka masala, was far more generous and tasty then 99% of so called Indian's.