hanuman1

It's basic diplomacy. For any president to talk down an elected leader of another country, that's insulting the entire country, not just the government.

Exactly so. The background however is that Thaksin has not forgiven the US from tapping his calls to the red thugs during last year's events and warning him off. This will account for the rejection of support from the US aircraft carrier during the floods. Bad blood. And Thaksin carries his grudges.

Also with praising the PM the US is indicating that she is someone they can deal with. No need for Thaksin to return. But he has other intentions.

Thaksin has not forgiven the US from tapping his calls to the red thugs during last year's events and warning him off

That's an incredibly interesting statement. Now all you've got to do is present a shred of credible evidence to back this up and no doubt your post will be taken more seriously than it currently can be.

Who else are you implying is a fan of civil war. Certainly not me. I am simply trying to get the red support brigade to realize how deadly this amnesty action is going to be. You honestly think the rest of the country that understands how evil Thaksin is will simply take this lying down?

Civil war is coming not because anyone wants it, but because there is little else the red terrorists will understand and accept. Civil war will be terrible. It can be avoided by removing Thaksin. There is no other way.

The red movement is massive and growing. To not accomodate them will be an utter disaster. Most people in this country either want Thaksin back or dont care. Only the smallest group want him to remain out at all costs. He is coming back unless those who despise him can frighten enough of those who dont care into thinking it is going to be hideously violent. That is how realpolitik works in what has become a violent zero sum game from all sides. The government who won the election do not have to scare anyone much as they have at least a vague mandate to enact reconcilliation as they see it. Their opponents lost the arguement and election when they pushed their version of reconcilliation which was rejected. Everyone in the country knew that electing PTP would result in at least an attempt to bring Thaksin back. That is popular with a lot and many dont even think it matters what happens.

That is reality that the anti-Thaksinistas do not want shown. Most people either like the guy or think there are far more important issues. Thaksin is mainly an issue in a very vicious intra-elite war where everyone in the elite has been forced to take sides, that has been complicated by Thaksin very skillfully positioning himself as the accepted champion of those who for too long have not been given a fair opportunity, see the law as always used against them and their kind, are sick of traditional Thai politics and parties and who are wanting change. The real disaster is by fighting Thaksin to utterly alienate this huge mass who are increasingly sympathetic to the red movement that in many ways is well more extreme than Thaksin. Where do this group go if their champion is removed? They certainly aint going anywhere near the Dems or other tradional manipulative parties and to remove a more modern manipulative party that can moderate where it all goes could well be the ultimate disaster. This is now about placating the demands of the many and as we have seen they will not accept the party of their betters doing this even with the biggest debt funded bunch of populist policies that the country has ever seen. So it seems to be either accomodate Thaksin or use massive authoritarianism and repression to keep the people down with no guarantee it will work. To date with every disolution, legal decision, coup, manouver, governmental change the red movement has just grown stronger. The politics of dealing with Thaksin has been a case study in how not to do things and exposed a world where those who used to pull strings and control and manage everything are still playing by their set of rules while the majority of the country, and I mean not only PTP voters, are not. Thailand has changed and is changing still where it will end up who knows but it is going to go way beyond Thaksin now and more and more Thai people see this

+1 Thanks for that. Agree totally. Again.

On reading the headline alone, I somehow sensed this wasn't going to be a TAN or Nation article....

Excellent! A chance to see how Facebook hits translate into feet on the ground. And how deep the anti-Thaksin sentiment among Thais really is.

On the other hand, cue accusations of people getting paid to be there, agitators in the crowd, troublemakers outside the crowd etc etc....

The sad thing is, that a large turnout would give PAD a new lease of life, even though those turning out would be there not because they like PAD (see the numbers for their last few demos) , but because they don't like Thaksin. Another organization riding on the coat-tails of Thaksin's popularity level.

What do you reckon would be a good number?

I think more than 10,000 would be good for them. Less than 5,000 would be bad for them. In between ... would need to see how their next one goes.

Well, if the gathering is seen as a test of anti-Thaksin feeling, then the numbers would have to be compared with those of red-shirt demos in the capital last year which could be considered an indicator of pro-Thaksin (albeit at the time anti-gov, too) sentiment as well. I think that would be the best gauge of its success or failure.

If the PAD numbers fall well below what the reds got, it would be quite telling regardless of accusations of payments for attendance etc etc. It will be how it looks that counts.

It's just a shame that since people will be voting with their feet at the rally, a 'vote' against Thaksin will be seen as a 'vote' for PAD regardless of how many turn up. A bit like the many who voted PTP at the elections because they were more fed up with the government rather than in love with Thaksin, and their votes now being seen as an endorsement of government efforts to bring him back.

PAD to rally against amnesty decree Monday

The People's Alliance for Democracy will Monday hold a rally against a draft decree reportedly aimed at providing royal pardon for former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

PAD spokesman Parnthep Puaphanpong posted a message on his Facebook page that the yellow-shirt movement would stage a rally in front of the Council of State on Monday from 10 am to 6 pm.

The Cabinet has approved a draft decree to seek royal pardon for convicts on the occasion of His Majesty the King's birthday. Thaksin's opponents that the decree's criteria would make it eligible for Thaksin to receive royal pardon for his two-year jail term.

-- The Nation 2011-11-18

Excellent! A chance to see how Facebook hits translate into feet on the ground. And how deep the anti-Thaksin sentiment among Thais really is.

On the other hand, cue accusations of people getting paid to be there, agitators in the crowd, troublemakers outside the crowd etc etc....

The sad thing is, that a large turnout would give PAD a new lease of life, even though those turning out would be there not because they like PAD (see the numbers for their last few demos) , but because they don't like Thaksin. Another organization riding on the coat-tails of Thaksin's popularity level.

The PAD has been under appreciated for the service they did for the country. They are about to be appreciated again. I didn't necessarily agree with their methods, but having seen how much worse the reds were, I guess the ground rules are now set as to how this game will be played.

If I'm the PAD I'm going to go after sea ports and railways this time. Bring the import/export market to its knees. Given the floods have already crippled industry the damage there will be minimized, but killing the supply chains will have a dramatic effect on the population. Force the government to look incompetent or fire first. Then the yellows become the oppressed demonstrators, and the civil war can begin between the red government and the yellow freedom fighters.

No, that isn't going to happen.

Ok I give up. What is going to happen?

Not that.

"I'm not surprised by it."

that says it all

yes of course, the red shirts knew about it all along

Many TV posters also knew about it too, which is why I can't understand this feigned outrage. Something like this was bound to happen if their analysis - PTP is all about Thaksin - was correct.

I'm trying to think of a (sneakier?) way the government could have employed a different tactic to get Thaksin back, but if his return was impossible without royal endorsement then clearly the current events could be the only clear path to achieving that.

The indignation of government haters wouldn't be avoided whatever path they chose in this matter or any other.

The PAD has been under appreciated for the service they did for the country. They are about to be appreciated again. I didn't necessarily agree with their methods, but having seen how much worse the reds were, I guess the ground rules are now set as to how this game will be played.

If I'm the PAD I'm going to go after sea ports and railways this time. Bring the import/export market to its knees. Given the floods have already crippled industry the damage there will be minimized, but killing the supply chains will have a dramatic effect on the population. Force the government to look incompetent or fire first. Then the yellows become the oppressed demonstrators, and the civil war can begin between the red government and the yellow freedom fighters.

No, that isn't going to happen.

The ONLY thing that Yinluck is good at is lieing!!! .

I bet that's not the only thing she is good at

Given that she has a son she must at least be acceptable at something else...

I see the character and quality of the criticism here on TVF has improved lately....

The draft, which needs to be approved by King Bhumibol Adulyadej, would grant an amnesty to "convicts who are at least 60 years old and are sentenced to under three years in jail", according to the Bangkok Post English daily.

If this draft is approved, I guess we can expect no criticism of it on these boards, given the nature of its endorsement.

If it weren't for the obvious fallacy of LM, I'd be amused by this possible outcome.

So they don't know who they can impeach yet, they just know they're definitely going to impeach someone or other. What's the point of a statement like that, I wonder?

What happened to not politicizing the flooding?

This constant tactic by opposition parties of whatever persuasion to try and unseat people in the ruling party by doing anything other than clearly communicating misdeeds to the electorate and winning public discussions is a constant thorn in the side of this nation's democratic system. Such that it is.

No doubt any 'impeachment' process will inevitably get bogged down in red-tape and legal minutiae without anyone getting fired or gaining an advantage. As usual. The only losers are the electorate, whose representatives have to spend time dealing with this BS instead of getting on with their jobs.

The quality of opposition politics in this country is woeful. And that applies to the previous opposition as well as the present one.

The headline could have better been:

Most people would like to see unity

or

Most people think no other politician would have been better than Yingluck

but the nation decided on the negative to Yingluck one as usual. The other two didnt go with the get PTP out agenda even if they had higher respondent positives than the chosen one and even considering most of these polls oversample the middle class

Thanks for highlighting a classic example of how opinion in this news forum is regularly funneled in the direction which the Nation often wants readers/posters to go.

Opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said on the second and last day of the joint House-Senate debate that he was not seeking to politically exploit the flood crisis or seek to undo the Yingluck Shinawatra administration for the meantime.

Whilst I do have a good amount of respect for Abhisit, I wonder if someone who understands his MO better than I can explain the apparent disparity between his reported 'vow' of the OP and the Nation article entitled:

Abhisit backs group set to sue the govt

which can be found on this page:

This article is about suing the gov for mismanagement of the floods. So what's going on?

Cheers!

It would be revealing to know if the 21st Infantry Regiment of the 2nd Infantry Division are at all involved in the anti-flood actions. Does anyone know?

Their involvement may further improve the perception of the army among the general population.

And after all, they do need to save a few lives in order to balance their karmic books, so to speak.

I think most people don't pay attention to what regiment or division. They only know the Army as the Army.

Also I doubt that the Karmic books allocate karma to Army divisions in any case. Individual soldiers perhaps.

But what do I know? Bhudda may have been a marine.

Most westerners might not pay attention, but the significance of this unit - and one or two others - is somewhat elevated in the minds of many Thais. The reasons for this lie in the unit's patronage and also the role it played in controlling the crowds at Rachprasong.

Seeing this unit out and about in flood waters might soften many Thai's stance against it and - by looser association - the wider army as a whole, as well as its other...errr...stakeholders.

As for karma in army units, okay, maybe there is none.

It would be revealing to know if the 21st Infantry Regiment of the 2nd Infantry Division are at all involved in the anti-flood actions. Does anyone know?

Their involvement may further improve the perception of the army among the general population.

And after all, they do need to save a few lives in order to balance their karmic books, so to speak.

".Indeed these disgusting people feed off legitimate grievances."

For some reason The Emporer"s New Clothes comes to mind.

To your mind perhaps but not to others.Care to explain the reference.

I didn't think it was that difficult to grasp. Why are people with legitimate grievances considered, by yourself at least, to be disgusting? Should legitimate grievances NOT be reported because they offend your political leanings?

BANZAI!!!!!!!!!

Why do so many disgruntled posters think the person who wrote the OP is supposed to be a flood expert? Because he criticizes 'experts' in passing? Join the club!

Just because someone's opinion on flooding is published in the Nation doesn't mean they're a flood expert.

Similarly, just because the Nation publishes articles, it doesn't mean it has expertise in journalism.

Like someone else said, it's not criminal if its successful. And if anything, the mismangement of this crisis is really criminal.

Funny you should mention Rajprasong. As I recall, no one died the last time the Army swooped in to get rid of big brother. No buildings were burned down. Can you say the same when the Red Shirts tried to overthrow the government last year? The pro Reds on this forum are sooooo credible!

Advocating the illegal seizure of power through the threat of violence? You sound like Nattawut and Jatuporn on the red stage at Rajprasong. And in doing so, you make your rabidly anti-gov/red/Thaksin rants elsewhere on this forum look even less credible than they do at first, second and thirty-seventh glance.

I'm not saying the 'pro-reds' are any more or less credible.

I'm saying the more fanatical elements on either side - of which you are a part with your calls for criminal activity - are less credible as sources of pertinent (never mind balanced) opinion.

Oh, okay, I see the reason for our misunderstanding. When I mentioned criminality - as in the coup you are calling for - I was referring to the laws of Thailand. When you mention criminality:

"

- it's not criminal if its successful

- the mismangement of this crisis is really criminal

"

you are referring to....what standards, exactly?

Funny you should mention Rajprasong. As I recall, no one died the last time the Army swooped in to get rid of big brother. No buildings were burned down. Can you say the same when the Red Shirts tried to overthrow the government last year? The pro Reds on this forum are sooooo credible!

Of course they're blaming him! They after all need to divert the blame from their boss's sister. What a bunch of scumbags. When this crisis is over, I just can't wait for the Army to swoop in.

Advocating the illegal seizure of power through the threat of violence? You sound like Nattawut and Jatuporn on the red stage at Rajprasong. And in doing so, you make your rabidly anti-gov/red/Thaksin rants elsewhere on this forum look even less credible than they do at first, second and thirty-seventh glance.

I'm not saying the 'pro-reds' are any more or less credible.

I'm saying the more fanatical elements on either side - of which you are a part with your calls for criminal activity - are less credible as sources of pertinent (never mind balanced) opinion.

Of course they're blaming him! They after all need to divert the blame from their boss's sister. What a bunch of scumbags. When this crisis is over, I just can't wait for the Army to swoop in.

Advocating the illegal seizure of power through the threat of violence? You sound like Nattawut and Jatuporn on the red stage at Rajprasong. And in doing so, you make your rabidly anti-gov/red/Thaksin rants elsewhere on this forum look even less credible than they do at first, second and thirty-seventh glance.

If we can agree that the stickers were actually removed, I wonder how my fellow speculators would interprate that?

Is it more likely the action of a group who feel the 'red shirts only' sticker portrays a self-defining, central tenet to their beliefs system? One to be jealously guarded, displayed without fear, and be proud of?

Or does it rather suggest that someone thought it was a good idea at one point, and then a bit further down the line thought it wasn't such a good idea? A show of bravado on one narrow level, an out and out mistake when viewed in another, broader context perchance?

I know what the Jatuporn-esque anti gov/red propagandists will say - doubtless we are witnessing the rise of a new Red Faction: the Lily-Livered (or should that be Yellow-Bellied?) Reds!!!

Get a thousand powerful pumps --whats the difference they will need to join 50 kilometers if flexi pipes to take it to the gulf??? or where are they going to pump it to ??? maybe pump it back up country ???

You miss the whole point of the (non-existant) pumps.

It is an easy soundbite that will be repeated on red tv to the upcountry folk. This enhances the Thaksin brand as most people now realise that not only did the good Dr pay from his own pocket to build all roads in Isaan, pay off the IMF loan, buy ipstar satellites for all Burmese sheds, pay for CTX bomb scanners, rid Thailand of all drugs, solve Bkk traffic problem, eliminate all corruption apart from his own which was deemed "normal", warn muslims of the dangers of combining ramadan and 10 wheel trucks, but he also bought some lovely pumps for the flood victims.

I hope this great man returns in December. Where would we all be without him. I guess we should spare a thought for the bonded slaves in Uganda's blood diamond mines. They will surely miss him.

uote from above: " It is an easy soundbite that will be repeated on red tv to the upcountry folk. This enhances the Thaksin brand as most people now realise that not only did the good Dr pay from his own pocket to build all roads in Isaan, pay off the IMF loan, buy ipstar satellites for all Burmese sheds, pay for CTX bomb scanners, rid Thailand of all drugs, solve Bkk traffic problem, eliminate all corruption apart from his own which was deemed "normal", warn muslims of the dangers of combining ramadan and 10 wheel trucks, but he also bought some lovely pumps for the flood victims."

And that's the very scary part. I believe the red villages (and jatuporn hasn't been seen for weeks and the speculation is that he's stirring up the red villages) would still believe all of the above and would probably believe the story that the floods are all deliberate work / results of either the army or abhisit or both.

And that's the very scary part. I believe the red villages (and jatuporn hasn't been seen for weeks and the speculation is that he's stirring up the red villages) would still believe all of the above and would probably believe the story that the floods are all deliberate work / results of either the army or abhisit or both.

What a load of unsubstantiated old cockwash.

You haven't got a clue what Jatuporn is doing have you? You must miss him and be gutted that you've not got any Nation articles about him to rip into. Oh well, let's fall back on a bit of unbridled speculation in the meantime just to keep ourselves occupied then, shall we?

'Stirring up the red villages'....oooohhhhh! sounds sinister - a promise of red violence at some point to really rip into. Yum Yum! I'm sorry you are scared (or want others to be), but if you're just going to make things up, why not make up things which won't scare yourself or others?

And if you're not making things up, let's hear more about this 'speculation', doubtless based on someone seeing him in a red shirt village at some point in the past. Ergo, he's planning violent insurrection nationwide.

Honestly, you and your hysterical red/Thaksin/PTP bashing colleagues (who give a bad name to the more balanced anti-gov/PTP/Thaksin posters) have the same shrill, belligerent, paranoid, divisive tone as someone else we all know. Been taking lessons from Jatuporn?

'There's gonna be a coup!', says Jatuporn. 'There's gonna be red violence!', says you.

On the subject of the 'shelf life' of indefensible acts as political point scoring tools in these important discussions, how long would you give, say, the 2006 coup or the fighting last year in Bangkok? 10 minutes and forever respectively, I'd imagine. Although of course I'm prepared to be proved wrong.

I don't think there is a shelf life in discussing those incidents you mention. The issue is bringing those issues up, to, in some way, justify something else.

I don't see it as a justification of something else. It's more like saying 'Here's an incident (A) which you don't decry, which is comparably bad to an incident ( which you do decry (repeatedly and at length)'. Any linkage between the two incidents apart from the fact they serve to illustrate an inconsistency in your (or whoever's) reaction to each, is purely what you imagine, I would suggest. And what you imagine, I feel, is fueled by the notion that in this argument there is no quarter to give, no middle ground to be found and no common understanding possible.

Just my 2 Adjustable Galactic Dollars' worth.

Could that mean that the stickers are only on one side?

The original shot questioned by Monkfish was of the sticker on the other side. Then someone else posted a shot of the other side of the boat - which also had the sticker - to discredit Monkfish's allegation.

So they've probably taken it off. Or maybe they haven't. Depends how you feel, really.

You're right. The first picture (around post 100) had the stickers on the right hand side. The second picture (around post 200ish) had the sticker on the left.

I would assume that they removed the stickers from both sides.

I would assume that they removed the stickers from both sides.

Steady on, old chap. That kind of talk could get you labelled a red apologist by some of the esteemed analysts on this forum. Better to keep an open mind, whatever your beliefs. :jap:

Well that's at least something if true.

But are they the same boats? The painted on text is different (although, granted, the pictures are taken from different sides)

Could that mean that the stickers are only on one side?

The original shot questioned by Monkfish was of the sticker on the other side. Then someone else posted a shot of the other side of the boat - which also had the sticker - to discredit Monkfish's allegation.

So they've probably taken it off. Or maybe they haven't. Depends how you feel, really.