MicroB

You say that. Its a reason he often expresses, but doesn't follow through. What happened when Finland became a NATO member? He pulled units from the Finnish border to reinforce his forces in Ukraine. https://frontnews.eu/en/news/details/35176 In some ways, the collapse of the USSR was bad for him, because he lost his KGB job beating the crapola out of East German dissidents. He's obsessed about a "New Russia"; its racial. He views Russians in racial terms, ie the Rus. He's schooled up on Czar Nicholas I who he wishes to emulate. He wants to "reunite" slavic (Rus) peoples, because they are dying out (the demographic projections are sobering; Russian minorities will cease being minorities, unless Putin an add more Slavs). Add he is an acolyte of Dugin. Yeltsin's reaction to the election of PUtin, and the reinstatement of the Soviet anthem; "Its reddish" Putin and Hitler are similar. Both were energised a perceived injustice, which lead to a break up of the old order. But both also hated the old order. Hitler, an Austrian, believed in a strong Germany, but hated the Kaiser. He and his followers had a fairytale view of German history, through Teutonic Knights and Volk (Himmler even had a round table at his castle). Putin wants the USSR back but without the communism, collectivisation, equality of races. For hi the Rus are top, and other people serve them. Hence conscription is strongest among minorities, because they are expendable. He has a fictionalised idea, like Hitler, of his own history. The fall of the USSR was not a disaster. It was one of the last wrongs to be put right following the Great War. And yes, the next wrong to put right is the end of the Russian Federation, so Putin is right on that score. Russian people should have their own country, Russia. It will still be a big country. As Russian people, they will have a better sense of identity, rather than Dugin's Eurasian nonsense, and happier for it. All the old Empires have gone, Russian one next.

Sorry, but deployment of a military, even if there was no opposition, actually costs your taxpayer. Soldiers do not work for free. Fuel isn't stolen. Vehicles need maintenance. Even for Hitler, invading Poland for Lebensraum cost him dearly. Its a puzzle why the US just doesn't make Mexico American. The population overwhelmiingly wants to be Gringos; His Excellency Presidente King Trumpf of the Kingdom of Florida keeps reminding us. There is a lot more economic activity in Mexico than there will ever be in Greenland. It has beach resorts the Seppos love. Illegal immigration solved forever. Puerto Ricans are already Americans, making them a State takes just a Sharpie scribble. Diitto US Virgin Islands, Guam. He could do a quick show of hands around the Caribbean, and likely get most buying in. Denmark is a NATO member. The US should not discount the possibility of nuclear armed NATO members comng to Denmark's aid. They won't win, but no one wins a nuclear exchange. Its, of course, utterly ridiculous. The Americans elected a man who's veins literally bleed yellow. He was too afraid to serve his country when called upon. His Great Grandfather was too afraid to serve his country when called upon. His dad rinsed the US during WW2. And now he's acting like the Big Man. Sure, the Danish army couldn't do much to stop the Americans, but they'll do their best. As US servicemen who served alongside them in Afghanistan would attest. Pro-rata, the Danes had the highest casualties among NATO, including US, troops. They'll take some of them down. They'll make America bleed. Heck, even little Grenada, armed with just a few shotguns, managed to take out 19 Yankee soldiers, cripple another 150 of them. A handful of Japs did a real number on rough tough Marines. I assume you are not a Yankee Prick-Braggard. Most Yanks I know are much more sensible than this. . If America really has turned into a country that wants to conquer the world, I suspect I might think Alexandr Dugin is onto something when he says America and its people should be destroyed, erased from history. But I know that's not the case. Its just the Neo-Nazi puppet masters wanting that.

They didn't steal it from anyone. The Danish-Norwegian government never relinquished their claims from when Erik the Red discovered an uninhabited land (which is proven through archeology). Portugal stole it for a while, but the Danes-Norwegians got it back.

I assume, from reading your many posts, that you identify as Anglo-Saxon. The peoples some Russians believe need to be cleansed from the earth (seriously, there is a whole ideology devoted to wiping out all British, Americans (yes, they are a bit colo(u)rblind), Australians and New Zealanders, because the world would be a better place without us. Putin is an adherant of this post-communist ideology (started by a Soviet dissident)). So you are very enthusiastic about extending statehood, even before a vote, to a country where the majority are the Angles from the bit of the word Anglo-Saxon. But you are notably less enthusiastic about honouring the majority wishes of Americans, who happen to be Hispanic, in Puerto Rico, who have voted for full statehood. There is a word for that. Lastly, you are either ignorant of geography and the demographics of the mostly blond haired people you want to be the New Americans, or you were poor at maths at school. You want the US government to pay each Greenlander $1 billion each, as a price worth paying. There are 57,000 Greenlanders. So you need to find USD57,000,000,000,000. $57 trillion. The US government's budget is less than $7 trillion, and your lot think that's too much, hence the clapping like seals when Musk announces DOGE. But you are willing to increase that by 700% or so to get some rock and ice, on the off chance, provided we don't get a collapse in the Gulf Stream, you can strip mine it for the rare earth metals for the electric cars you don't want, needed as part of the action on climiate change that you don't believe in anyhow. OK. The $57 trillion accomodation at Nuuk is most welcoming.

The original Greenlanders came from Iceland, Norway, 300 years before those invading Alaskan colonists. The Paleo Inuit died out/abandoned Greenland almost 1000 years before Erik the Red, when he arrived in 986. There is no sign of them in the present populaton. The Thule invaders/illegals from Alaska, didn't arrive until the 14th Century, whereupon they found a bunch of brickhard Norsemen already living there. They had battles, killed each other, but eventually the Norseman won. The Norsemen gave many words to the world. One of them was berserkr, to denote a warrior off his tits on narcotics going on a rampage wearing a bearskin.

There is a matter of semantics there. Norsemen colonised Greenland two centuries before the Inuit. Denmark colonised Greenland in the 18 Century, making them colonisers and natives simultaneously. Ultimately none of us are natives, because we all came out of Africa.

You cracked it. Trump is playing Risk. I never wanted Kamchatka.

Does it work like that. Region A votes to secede from Country X, votes to join US, US automatically lets them in. So where is Puerto Rico in this? They are actual US citizens. In the 2024 US Elections, 58% of Puerto Ricans voted in favour of Statehood. 52% voted for it in 2020. But then Trump suggested that the US offer Denmark Puerto Rico in exchange. Denmark should make a counter offer, because this is how Trump thinks; Greenland for one of the US States that Trump doesn't want, like California. Californians who want to remain American are free to relocate to Greenland and start a new life on the ice shelf eating raw fish and walrus meat. In the new Danish province of Californien, the provincial capital is moved to the pretty town of Solvang, previously known as the Danish Capital of America. Remaining Californians earn Danish citizenship, and with that visa free travel to the EU. Naturally all trade barriers are dropped. Californians will feel very comfortable as Danes. Danes are almost embarassingly fluent at English. In the natural subsequent negotiations, Denmark settles for Florida, after rejecting Nebraska. Evacuations of frightened Villagers to neighbouring luxurious resort town of Bayou La Batre*, Alabama, start in the morning. *The movie Forrest Gump lies. Its an inbred dump, with the main feature being the state liquor store.

That's not how DNA tests work. To identify someone from their DNA you either have to have their DNA already in a database, or have DNA from a relative to compare against. The deceased would not have had a sample on any UK dataset, unless she had previously been convicted of a crime. What has improved is sensitivity. When the body was found, it was described as being in an advanced stage of decomposition; it was summer. The descriptions photo taken by the unfortunate hillwalker who didn't notice the corpse in the stream behind him suggests it might have partly disarticulated (coming apart). At the time, a DNA sample would have been retained, and clothing stored. The body had apparently no signs of injury that could have lead to death. Though I see mention of a spiral fracture to a finger, which has been suggested as being consistant with a struggle. That fracture would have been noted in any post mortem at the time. When the case was reviewed, that seems to be when information about the body having possibly been placed there, by use of a 4WD vehicle. What won't be divulged publicly is if improved techniques were able to identify the presence of DNA from a third party.

https://www.northyorkshire.police.uk/news/north-yorkshire/news/news/2023/02-february/north-yorkshire-polices-lady-of-the-hills-case-heads-to-thailand/ One wonders about his grown up children. His stepson (the Thai lady's son) lives in the UK, daughter lived with him in Thailand, and his other son is in China.

Once you understand the current investment in AI going on over the last half decade, you realise that half a trillion isn't that much. The Moon Landings were funded by government. Project Stargate has zero government money, just a pledge by government to step aside. AI needs training dataset, very big datasets. It gets that largely from government handing over essentially public property. And America did it largely with Nazi scientist knowhow. They were lucky that they captured the right scientists.

Its (upto) $500bn pledged by American and Arab investors over the next 5 years. Musk is probably right that its not enough, The press releases are promising to cure cancer with this. They also came up with a bizarre telehealth application that will enable rural docotrs to understand how top city doctors treat patients. Er, they already do this. Its called Google (or your favourite search engine). Whoever came up with this doesn't understand medical malpractice law, which restricts what doctors want to do for fear of being sued. This is why treatment guidelines exist. Follow the guidelines, and even if the patient dies, you can't be blamed, as you did your best. Do something different, well, you're on your own in the Court. The numbers invested in AI is vast. I have a vested interest in this. In the last 5 years, US Companies have raised about $400 bn in investment in AI technologies. There are similar numbers elsewhere. And that's just healthcare. The $500bn is cross-sector, mainly to build infrastructure. Say there is $100 bn set aside for healthcare. Its a decent amount, but not transformative in the way portrayed. Like any of these transformative projects, such as the Manhattan Project, Roosevelt's March of Dimes, The Human Genome Project, Operation Warpspeed, for Project Stargate to succeed, it need public money, not just an elected official turning a blind eye to regulation. There is going to be conflict coming up among American concservatives soon in healthcare. Currently the market is infected with unregulated healthcare Apps, powered by AI. Some are good, many are not. The FDA, itself created because of mistakes when the first polio vaccines were produced, is in charge of regulating medical and therapeutic products in the US. With AI, they are facing a similar challenge to when genetic tests first appeared in the 1980s. Back then, the FDA didn't really understand these tests, and couldn't keep pace. So they decided, back then, that a competant lab could be trusted to understand how to do the tests, and understand what the results mean, so introduced "CLIA waived" tests, so that innovative breakthroughs wouldn't be held up with red tape. Sounds a good idea, right, trust the experts. 40 years on, the labs are performing tests that they don't understand the results of, and the testing companies now are trying to shortcut the doctors with direct to consumer tests. Its a mess. Not wanting to repeat this, the FDA wants to be more careful with AI. It needs congressional approval to allow the FDA, ie the Federal government, to access the medical records of all Americans, in order to test the efficacy of these new Apps. The Prize is great; a potential transformation in medicine, but is the price worth it? In dystopian fiction, when governments get hold of citizen biometrics, it usually doesn't end well. Now, that's fiction, and plenty of politicians in the US these days seem to base their world view using fiction. The EU is losing out on AI Healthcare innovation because EU regulators are very keen to protect the medical records of EU Citizens. This hobbles companies with smaller training datasets compared to competitors in, say, China. AI success in healthcare is largely dependant on which country is willing to monetize their population's health. The UK does this quite well, given the NHS holds the world's largest single healthcare system medical record repository. For healthcare, AI cannot be a nationalist pursuit. It needs global cooperation, to prevent malevolant actors pursue their own agendas. Thats why the Human Genome Project was international; to sequence the human genome, so no one country would own the sequence. The US missed a Leadership opportunity. It could have lead an effort to harness the benefits of AI for all mankind, instead its gone for the short term profit direction. People complain about "Big Pharma", that it doesn't have the interest of patients at its heart, and that's partly true. Before WW2, the Pharmaceutical Industry didn't really exist. Your medicines came from chemical companies. But then WW2 came, and the plans to liberate Europe. The Allies wanted penicillin, lots of it, in time for Overlord. The Americans awarded the contract to a few quite small companies, Abbott, Pfizer, Merck and Bristol-Myers Squibb, all now among the biggest corporations in the world. They never looked back.

https://theins.ru/en/news/278003 Oil spills are naturally terrible for marine life, wherever they happen, and marine transport remains quite a hazardout occupation anywhere in the world. The Volgoneft-212 and Volgoneft-239 were part of a series of tankers called Volgoneft tankers, built in the 1970s. The name gives their purpose away. They were built to primarily transport oil down the Volga river to the Sea of Azov. They were capable of short sea shipping provided the chop was no more than 2 meters. For exporting oil, they were fine for doing ship to ship transfers within the relatively benign Sea of Azov. Ukrainian mining of the Kerch straits, plus Russia's increasing need to export whatever oil it can has lead to a change in shipping habits, leading to these old, decrepit ships to take risks on open seas. The risk of not exporting the oil outweighs the risk of losing the cargo. Before 2024, only one of these ship types broke apart on open seas, and that was in 2007. This is one of a number of signals that all is not well with the Russian economy. Putin remains the master strategist.

https://ceenergynews.com/oil-gas/russia-moldova-transnistria-buy-gas-europe/ First Putin threatens to stop supplying Europe with natural gas. Putin said Europe would freeze to death without Russian natural gas Europe stops buying Russian gas Europe doesn't freeze to death Russian natural gas gets cut off to Transnistria, on account of the country Russia is attacking, Ukraine, not being particularly interested in renewing an agreement that will allow Russian gas to flow to a breakaway enclave, Transniestria, that is home to the Russian Army's OGRF. Transmistrian Russian people get a bit cold, ask their fellow Moldovans for help. Russia will buy gas from Europe to supply Transnistria. Putin remains the master strategist.

Ah, you are one of those creationist types, who believe fossils were planted by the Devil to test us.. After all, how do you know they are 50, 100, 200 million years old?

Widely reported but originally he said it during an interview speaking with Shannon Bream on Fox News Sunay, on 11th June, 2024. He referenced that Trump was "Toast" if even half of the indictments regarding the stolen classified material that was found deliberately secreted in the toilet and other places in Trump's Florida home were true. This was widely reported in the media, of all shades. I trust you can make use of Google to locate the original interview if you doubt the veracity of claims. Republican politicians who have called Donald Trump a traitor, or words to that effect: GOP Rep. Joe Walsh, in response to Trump calling on China to conduct investigations in Hunter Biden, in comments made to Joe Tapper, made on or about the 6th October 2019: Congressman Will Hurd, when asked by Kailan Collins, on or about 21 June 2023, if Trump had betrayed America, with respect to the stolen documents: Former Republican Massachusetts governor, Bill Weld, also in response for Trump asking China to conduct an investigation of Hunter Biden, in conversation with Joe Tapper, said: Republican former Federal Judge Michae Luttig, writing just before the election, in the New York Times: Of course, there is a lot of rhetoric. Trump for instance wanted Michigan Sec. of State Jocelyn Benson tried for treason in relation to the 2020 election, and executed. George Buck, who ran for Congress in Florida, in 2019, wanted Democrat politicians to be executed by hanging.

He probably doesn't understand to be Prime Minister doesn't mean being Head of State. Canada already has a Governor, Mary Smon, who represents the Head of State, Charles III. The Crown has reserve powers, such that the "power of the people above government and political parties", such that a Prime Minister Musk, should he propose such a move, would likely find himself strung up.

Musk is Max Zorin meets Hugo Drax.

Other name changes: New Engand becomes New America Georgia is renamed America Angola Indiana will henceforth be called America Indiana. Its twin Angola New York will do the same. Indiana pondering a reband to Americana. There are quite a few Armenias able to qualift for a job lot of America nameplates' Little Bangladesh in Los Angeles now known as Canada. Bolivia, NC= America NC Brazil Indiana willbe confusingly called America, Americana China New York will mostly keep its name, now Chiinaa Cuba Missouri is now Bacardi There are some Denmarks, Finlands, Lebanons, Maltas, Mexicos, Morroccos, Norways, Perus,Polands, Singapores, Swedens, Wales, Caledonias, Ulsters to cleanse from the maps. Palestine, Ohio of course is Beyond the Pale. Panama City of course is now Van Halen City

Trumpton

Declare all Mexicans to be American. America to be renamed Mexico. Immigration problem solved.

Well the French don't call America, America.. They don't call Germany Germany either. Maybe Trump wants one of his businesses to get into printing maps and atlases. Start a campaign to rename the country to Usono or Freedonia

Actual stats are: Half of patients with non-urgent issues are in and out of Canadian emergency departments in less than 2.6 hours, with 90% wrapping up their visit in less than 7.6 hours. Patients who are more seriously ill are seen sooner but stay longer – 50% are done their visit in less than 4.1 hours, while 90% go home in less than 10 hours. Those who need to be moved from the emergency department to a hospital bed wait the longest. Half make the move within 14.7 hours, while 90% are admitted within two days. A&E in Canada works more or less the same as UK as US as everywhere. Cases are triaged. Cases needing urgent care are seen most quickly. Little Timmy with his head stuck in a saucepan isn't. Interpreting the waiting times is complex. The reasons why waiting times are getting longer are myriad, but actually kind of universal. A major reason is lack of access to a GP; you can't get to see a GP when you want, so you go to A&E, when really, 9 times out of 10, you don't need be there. This is a widespread problem across the Western world, basically down to lack of GPs (Primary Care), and that you can trace back to health policies of 20 years ago, when medical schools were recruiting young doctors, and which of those ticked the box to go into dull-as-dishwater general practice. We are getting older, living longer, but living more poorly. So lots more old people stopping you getting that GP appointment. Then there is inpatient bed capacity. People who cannot be admitted to hospital stay in A&E longer. This is where Roemer's Rule kicks in, Milton Roemer was an American health researcher who observed, in the 80s, "in an insured population, a hospital bed built is a bed filled". EnocH Powell said something similar "he number of patients always tends to equality with the number of beds available for them to lie in", ie, there are never enough hospital beds for everyone. So, there is attention of admission policies and discharge. But, with an aging population, now you have bed blockers; someone treated in hospital can no longer go home, because their home is no longer safe for them. Covid exposed the extremely lean nature of Canadian bed management, running at about 110% capacity, compared to the UK at about 95% capacity. The US clearly people out of hospital, too quickly it turns out. The US has the worst readmission rates in the Western world. What that means is if you go to hospital in the US, you are more likely to die after discharge than anywhere else. People readmitted to hospital are usually in a miserable state and the prognosis is poor. The UK brought in "Discharge-2-Assess" during Covid, to free up beds. It meant patients who couldn't go home were sent to nursing homes for a couple of weeks. That's what happened to that Thai Youtuber, Ed Sweeney. Its not a bad approach, but the corrosive impact is the outflow of money to nursing homes that are PE owned. That's money that leaves the UK. Bed capacity is a conundrum. No one wants to fund a healthcare system that full of empty beds, empty operating theatres, idle doctors etc. Its not the fault of any particular government, nor will a new government fix it. These are problems decades in creation, and COVID exposed the inadequacies of conventional medicines. Innovations are needed. Strangely, its US insurers and the UK NHS leading the way. US insurers are pissed off at the increased cost of medicine. That murdering loon in New York had previously undergone spinal fusion surgery after suffering chronic pain for many years. There is already much discussion in the medical community that one of the major reasons for increase in costs is unecessary surgery, and Spinal Fusion is a prime example. Spinal Fusion rates have gone up 10x in 10 years, but thats not because people's backs are getting worse. Its because docs get paid more to operate than not. Insurance complains, and jumps in to block claims, and doctors complain about interferance when the Insurance company says they will pay for an epidural not spinal surgery. Insurance companies are pissed off about readmission rates, because that means more pay out, and the patient is likely to die anyhow. So, they are cutting reimbursement rates unless hospitals pull their finger out and sort out the numbers. That's forcing hospitals to invest in community nurses, apparently a revelation in the US, and investing in algorithms that can predict whether a discharged patient needs help. It saves money, and stops people going to hospital , meaning beds are freed up. The NHS is the biggest employer in Europe. Its the biggest single healthcare system in the world. It has, despite the moans, a huge budget. It has a lot of money for innovation, and so has its own Digital Health Arm, developing apps with the prime objective of stopping people using the NHS. Its all using nudge theory; by putting up barriers, people who aren't all that sick don't block up A&E. The results are a very good national phone service; I really can talk to a doctor on the phone and get useful advice. They rolled out an AO powered online diagnostic service. At first glance, it looks a bit noddy, but behind it is powerful analytics, triaging patients before they go to hospital. There are websites comparing waiting times. They are complete bull<deleted>. One site claims the averqge wait in Canada is 2.1 hours. The same site claims the wait in India is 18 minutes. By their measure, an Indian state hospital is the best in the world. Indians would respectfully disagree. The data is complex, and its impossible to make country to country comparisons, because its apples to oranges.

Usually lame duck Presidents reserve foreign policy gambits towards the end of their terms. He's not even in office. I suspect Barbados and Jamaica feel left out. And Trumpf has missed a complete policy win, fixing 98% of the immigration issue with a sweep of a pen, and no cost. Declare all Mexicans to be American Citizens. Given economic forecasts, adding the Mexican headcount to the US population will also lead to improvements in jobs growth and pay rises. Greenland is not the only European outpost in the Americas. Of course, there are bits of France scattered throughout the Caribbean. There is Saint Pierre and Miquelon near Canada.. Plus British overseas territories. What next; Diego Garcia and Ascension Island are declared America. And speaking of the Falklands, Trump will reverse long standing US policy to back Argentina's claims', on the grounds of geographic primacy. Then there is Antarctic territory.... Trumpf might even declare RAF Mildenhall, Ramstein etc as US territory, on the grounds of 80 years of US investment, declaring US base shutdowns, and Federal sale of the lands to private property developers, including himself. Mildenhall will make a nice Links. Its not a joke, because Mister Trumpf is not a funny man. It won't happen because, like the last time, the man is useless and fundamentally a layabout. Vance is currently recovering from nasal sinus surgery. Where is he, besides a third rate college football match? President Vance might not be so bad sounding, mainly because we don't really know that much about him, though he wrote a book, married an Indian lady, was a late party boy and is a keen investor in fetal stem cell research (an area he has invested in before he entered politics). 12th Amendment; "in case of the death or other constitutional disability of the President", before inauguaration day, Vance is President, possibly triggered when Trumpf declares he's had enough of the Grand Duchy of Grand Fenwick, and he will make it mission accomplished on day 2, once and for all, and Johnson is VP. Thereafter, 25th Amendment. Trump never forgot the national humiliation.

The majority of the public support lots of things, such as reinstatement of capital punishment. But that that's never happening. Its been posted before, but it is an outdated stereotype to paint parents of children as being those seeking advantage over others. A significant portion of pupils are boarding pupiles. There are state boarding schools, but these are very small in number (about 30 our of the total of 500 boarding schools) The proportion of pupils that are international is quite small; about 25,000 our of the 600,000-odd. There are in total, 66,000 children boarding in the UK. Mostly the reasons for boarding are because the parents are not in the UK. Parents who are working overseas are working hard to provide for their children. But where they are working does not provide suitable education for their children, so the parents have either to give up work, and return to the UK as unemployed, or pay fees. They are not seeking advantage. The vast majority of children are sent to independant schools not to seek advantage, but to avoid disadvantage. Lets be clear; the Department of Education's budget is massive, at £115 billion per year. The VAT take will, at best, increase spending by 1%' thats less than the rate of inflation. The UK's spending on Education, per child, is 6th in the OECD. But clearly the money is poorly spent, and most of it is seemingly whittled away on things that are not related to the education of children. This was part of the argument of Free Schools; that the private sector can manage the running of schools more effectively. In fact, in the Netherlands, over 70% of schools are managed by Private Education boards. Which means they are privately owned, and receive 100% government subsidy. In most countries, private education is subsidised. The UK government has put on hold, indefinetely, all applications for Free Schools, including Eton Colleges's proposal to open 3 state 6th Form colleges in the North East. The decision is perverse. A large number of parents send their children becsause of SEND, and in many cases, receive local authority finding. LAs are obliged by law, to provide school places for all children. These SEND children cannot be educated in the state sector, as the state sector either can't provide the specialist teachers, or is structurally incapable (the state sector will never be able to provide classes of less than 7 pupils per teacher). Independant schools have seen an increase in enrollment in recent years, as the state sector, for some years (but not all) have seen a decline in enrollments. Since 2008, the general picture of the UK is not a country with an ever increasing wealthy population, but a country that is in economic decline, a decline that was not reversed by Brexit, and an economy that is fragile to shocks like COVID-19. I will post this again: https://medium.com/@diarmid.mackenzie/diversity-across-uk-independent-schools-a015a006f41b So agian, lets explain this. About 50% of pupils come from households with the top 10% of incomes. That includes the super wealthy. The median earnings of that top 10% are £72,000. https://www.statista.com/statistics/416102/average-annual-gross-pay-percentiles-united-kingdom/ That includes a lot of people that you could describe as comfortable, but not well off. That would include a household with two earners on £35,000 per annum each. which is less than the median income for a professional. A salary of £35,000 would mean you would fail to qualify for an immigration visa based on job. 25% of kids come from households in the bottom 70%; so median income less than £47,000. How do all these parents afford an average of £18,000 per year. With great difficulty and sadness it seems. About 18% of school children, or 1.8 million, require special educational needs. There is a huge variation in those needs. About 400,000 have Education, Health, and Care (EHC) plans, which takes care of about 6% of that pie chart. For the other 43%, how does one find a spare 1.7*18,000 (average number of kids). Some will win a full bursary or a part scholarship. The number on full bursaries is uncertain, but the ISC, whuch represents about 80% of independent schools, says about £440 million is given out, with the average value being £9000. I'm going to estimate that its about 10-15% of pupils receive financial assistance. I can give the example of my sister. She is a single mum and a science teacher in a inner city state school in the English Midlands. After 25 years in the profession, her salary before deductions is about £50,000. She is a single mum, and has been repeatedly assaulted in the schools in which she has taught. Two of her pupils have been stabbed. In the summer holidays, she takes on a marking job, which pays about £1500. The father is also a teacher, with two other children. They both agree that their son should attend an independent school, to avoid being stabbed, to avoid bullying because he is of mixed race parentage. They both contribute to the fees. She hasn't taken a holiday in 15 years. In addition, our widowed mother, on a half army pension and short NHS pension, contributes. The decision was taken 13 years ago to school him in an independent school, My parents were also motivated because when my sster was much younger, she suffered a psychotic episode at university. My mother is a retired psychiatric nurse, and knows people with psychotic illnesses are never really cured; like cancer, its in remission, and can come back. The patient never fo.rgets, and those memories can be frightening. They were frightening for me when I took the broken glass from my sisters hands. The school chosen has excellent pastoral care, and my parents recognised that their age meant they will probably not live to see him reach adulthood. A school like that can provide excellent continuity during times of stress. Back then, it was doable. The numbers added up. Inflation in recent years, affecting us all, has made that difficult. This VAT raid is breaking the back of the camel. He is year 9, about to embark on his GCSEs, based on the topics he most enjoys and most excels at. The council have said there are zero places for him in the County, and that he will have to go to a neighbouring county. He has been informed that he will have to drop at least half of his favoured subjects, and also will be automatically put in a bottom set, not becquse of his own attainment (he is scholistically, in the top 15% of his class), but because all mi-year transfers are put in the bottom set. There is no choice, but to keep him in the school for at least the next 2.5 years. Thousands of other parents will be facing similar choices, and the government will interpret their inaction as meaning they had the money, while crassly forgetting, that changinga school is not the same as switch car insurance or broadband provider. The government claims the ends justify the means. Thats its better to benefit the 93%, portraying it as Sopies choice. They acknowledge that 7% of children will be harmed, but thats ok because 93% will benefit. But they won't/ The VAT take, over the years, will not increase. It will decline. The government estimates that by 2029, this will result in 6500 extra teachers being recruited. Maybe, but does that turn state education around. Of course not. And how do they retain those extra 6500, and give them and their colleagues payrises etc. Demand for private schools right now might be pricing inelastic for many, because parents have really no choice. Decisions are taken at natural education breakpoints; the decision at nursery to primary, the decision at primary to secondary, and the decision at 6th form. Increased costs will mean less parents will choose the private school option, which is what the government wants. But this decline will accelerate after about 2029, once the present cohort of children in secondary school have worked through the system. That £1.8 billion the government hopes to get by 2029 is a peak take. They will need £1.8 billion and the rest in 2030, 2031, 2032 etc. So where do they get this money from? They assume the spare 1.7*18,000 per person sloshing around will be spent in the economy. A bit might be, eg home improvements. But the money might be used to buy a nicer house, sparking more house price increases, which goes against the government's housing pledge. The money from the grandparents will end up being sucked into £1500 a week social care fees, paid to companies that are mostly offshored in tax havens. People might spend it on foreign holidays, maybe a new German made car. Much of that money will leave the UK, continuing the decline of the UK. Currently, 80% of fees goes into teacher salaries, and they spend money like the rest of us. The older schools have substantial investments, and so money will go into institutional stocks (our pensions), Here's a thought. Its widely reported that the EU bans tax on education. What this means is a member state can be substantially fined if it does tax education. This tax policy affects schools in Northern Ireland, with money going to the Treasury. But the DoE cannot spend that money in Northern Ireland, because Education is devolved to the Northern Ireland assembly because of the Good Friday Agreement. The GFA utterly transformed the constitutional landscape of the UK, and is the main cause for Brexit being difficult to implement, because Brexit results in discrimination. And eliminating discrimination was the heart of the Troubles and the GFA. In Northern Ireland, it has been common for children to be schooled across the border. Kids come North, kids go South. Education and healthcare is something that partitiion only partially disrupted. As a result the NHS in NI and the Irish Healthcare service have arrangements regarding accessing specialists, because the best hospitals are still in Belfast and Dublin. Similarly, Queens in Belfast is still seen as the best university in Ireland, with the result that the majority of students are from the Republic. VAT on education now introduces discrimination. The Directive means its a right in the EU for citizens not to be taxed on education, But now this policy means Irish citizens in Northern Ireland (basically the entire population) are now discriminated against and treated differently to Irish citizens in Ireland. And are children with entitlement to Irish citizenship, boarding in the North, but parents in England, also discriminated against? Even if the courts rule against this, it will instantly render all of the private schools in the North as non-viable. Why would a parent send their kid to a private school in Armagh when they could go to a private school in Monahagn tax free, and receive identical education from identical teachers in an identical language? In Ireland, of course private schools are not taxed, and never will be, and the government there is adamant they will never receive state subsidy. However, the Irish government offers tax relief on school fees for any executive transferring to Ireland with a Multinational...... I can forsee booming times for Irish private education, maybe even wealthy English schools setting up campuses there. Probably quicker to fly to Dublin from London that it is Aberdeen....