nigelforbes

This begins to blur the lines between what is a money transfer service and what is a deposit taker, the latter having much more risk. This makes me nervous and slightly suspicious.

I agree, nobody has ever volunteered how that is done. The BIG problem is that most people think of the definition of currency manipulation in a very narrow and literal way. The truth is that Thailand, like Switzerland and Germany and many other countries, all can be said to manipulate their currency using trade as a vehicle where exports exceeding imports. Only the US Fed thinks that is manipulation, well, and a few posters on AN, everyone else thinks that's a trade imbalance. There's an interesting chart in the link below explaining trade vs currency manipulation and the countries the Fed thinks are manipulators, it will make you chuckle.. https://www.cfr.org/article/tracking-currency-manipulation

Here's a mind bender for some: If Thai people travel overseas and spend money in other countries, in economics this is regarded as a Thai import of (Tourist) Services, because the money flows from Thailand to another country but the travel experience returns to Thailand. Conversely, when foreign tourists visit Thailand, this is regarded in economics as a Thai export of (Tourist) Services, because the funds used to pay for the holiday experience were brought in from overseas and then exported when the visitor returned home. So, when it is said that the importation of Services has increased (which it has), that means (in part) that more people are travelling outbound.

How else can it be said? Saying it's manipulation is an easy answer, just say one word and you've explained it all but said nothing. Saying I don't know is another easy answer but it's three words and far less interesting and intriguing.

It's USD that's playing havoc with your UK pension, not THB.

The lazy persons way of saying they don't understand.

How can it possibly be racist when every nationality is stopped for so obviously breaking the law, even Thai's got stopped and fined for those things all the time.

“Please give me your motorbike.” Polite muggers in Thailand, New York muggers could learn a few things.

Here's four charts from 2022 showing the relationship between the current account, the balance of trade, the USD/THB exchange rate and the number of tourist arrivals. You can see what happens to the Thai economy when the exchange rate is too weak and tourist numbers are too low. https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/current-account https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/balance-of-trade https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/tourist-arrivals https://tradingeconomics.com/usdthb:cur

OP - you can open a multi-currency account that includes Sterling but there are limitations. The first decision to make is whether you want a Resident or Non-Resident Multi-Currency Account. The latter allows you to transfer currency at will, without limit, without paperwork or approvals but the account will not earn interest and you cannot deposit THB cash into the same account. A resident multi-currency account MAY charge you an annual fee at some banks, others only charge you if you repatriate the currency and don't exchange it for THB.

You can't transfer Baht out of Thailand, it must be converted to another currency first. In your example, your USD was converted to Baht and then converted again into Rial's.

Except THB is not fully convertible, it can't be traded for delivery outside Thailand. So this is not about currency speculation as in currency trading, this is about economic growth forecasts, the US economy and USD and recovery after covid.

As said previously on page 5 of the linked thread below: "Hot money is flowing out of Thai equities on rate increase concerns in March, over USD 0.5 bill since 1 February. That outflow saw the Baht weaken by one baht against USD, now recovering slightly". This was hot money that was betting against the US economy. When the US jobs data came in hot it changed side and bet in favor of USD, the logic for doing this was further supported by a belief that BOT will once again raise rates in March. As a consequence, THB was sold and USD was purchased, that's what caused the 3% decline which is not a big concern. If anything it's exports positive plus the rate remains in a cost effective range.

Over 70% of Thailand’s economy is reliant on trade, which is a key factor in determining if the Baht will be weak or strong. Trade comprises Goods and Services, both of which are imported and exported. The difference between imports and exports is known as the balance of trade. When we import more than we export, the balance is negative and the cost to pay for that comes from the current account which, all other factors being equal, will be in deficit. When the opposite happens, the current account will be in surplus, all other factors being equal. BOT produces two useful and interesting report showing the import and export of Goods, by month, by country and by product, for all of 2022, these are linked below. If you want to know anything about Thailand’s imports and exports, this is the definitive source of information, the horses mouth! I haven’t found a corresponding report for the import and export of Services which would complete the picture, but I will! International Tourism is of course an export of Services so all we need now is to understand what Services are imported. The import/export by country report makes interesting reading. From it we can see that in 2022, Thailand had a trade deficit in Goods of about USD 21 bill., this means it imported 21 bill. More than it exported. Remember though, the total import/export picture includes Services so the final picture will change. The report also tells us that overall trade with NAFTA (North America) was in surplus, we exported more to them than we imported, a key reason why the Fed. Keeps calling Thailand a currency manipulator! Exports to ASEAN countries was also in surplus but trade with China was massively in deficit, we imported 50% more from China than we exported. Overall, Thailand has a trading surplus with 47 of its trading partners and a trading deficit with 32, overall the deficit is about 7%. The reports are linked below: BOT imports and exports by country https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=743&language=ENG BOT imports and exports by commodity group https://www.bot.or.th/App/BTWS_STAT/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=50&language=ENG What you can see from these reports is that, without international tourism earnings, the economy cannot fully support itself on production and manufacturing alone, not if imports and all other factors are maintained at the current level. Tourism income is a key ingredient that helps balance the books and, once above a certain level, begins to produce a profit for the economy. So, where does all of this leave us with the value of the Baht? I think it should be fairly clear that the difference in value between imports and exports is what mostly determines Baht strength or weakness and that comprises both Goods and Services. The real variable however is the USD exchange rate which influences the cost of imports, determines the value of exports and to a lesser degree, influences the appeal of Thailand as a tourist destination.

An authoritative and useful description of cross border settlement: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/payment-and-settlement/cross-border-payments

Except the PUB machines can't update fixed deposit passbooks and show the monthly interest payments that were made......oh brightest star!

Hahahahahahaha.....you crack me up with your jokes.

Only 11% of the population is inside the tax net and only 5% pay taxes that way.

So much drama for a letter, why I no have same problem!

It's Benjamin Button syndrome, the longer you are here, the more junior you become.

And finally, back to that old question, how does expenditure by foreign tourists in Thailand, impact the value of the baht and is USD involved? Tourism is a Services Export which is valued at about 12% of GDP or around USD 60 bill per year. Imported Services on the other hand were valued at USD 61 bill. in 2021, an offsetting amount. It therefore follows that if USD is deployed to convert tourist expenditure to THB, the opposite conversion will be deployed to pay for imported services. Bottom line, there is no/very little impact.

I'm just wondering now as a result of this, what restrictions will be placed on foreigners buying vehicles here etc. There always seem to be OTT knee jerk reaction when things like this happen.

BOT has estimated 25 million, conventional forecast currently estimate 23 mill. Anything over 20 mill. is a bonus.

I think most of the components of why THB appreciates are there in the first thread Probably the biggest one is that the economy comprises over 70% exports whereas imports are nearly always lower. That has a tendency to produce a trade and current account surplus which, combined with increasing Foreign Currency Reserves and low government debt, make THB strengthen. Do other countries share this trait? I haven't really studied any but I'm not aware of any that are so heavily export dependent. I was looking today at the 25 year XE exchange rate graphs for USD/THB and GBP/THB and was struck by the longer term strengthening of the Baht, taper tantrum and covid periods not withstanding. I think BOT is going to have a difficult job keeping it in a desirable range in the future and this may result in some structural changes in the Thai economy.

2022 automobile production and sales statistics for Asean countries, linked below. https://www.asean-autofed.com/files/AAF_Statistics_2022.pdf Thailand leads production output of motor vehicle by a substantial margin and production output of motorbikes and scooters by a massive amount. Thailand came second in vehicle sales but first in m/bike and scooter sales. The segment is buoyant. MoM and prior years data is here: https://www.asean-autofed.com/statistics.html