nigelforbes

On this basis, December should see 140,000,000, the population of Thailand will have to relocate to make room.

I think they must use a forecast model that extrapolates the figures today and projects them forward, without regard to much of anything other than arrivals. We should be careful, they might just turn out to be right. But the other things you mentioned clearly are not influencing factors, leadership repression (whatever that is) and bent cop publicity, almost certainly won't affect tourist arrivals. Remember 2010 when there were tanks and snipers on the streets? Tourist arrivals took a quick hit but they bounced right back. The factors, I think, that might come into play later in the year are 1) recessionary spending 2) cost of travel 3) climate. If the Baht holds about 32, the Baht will be fair value, if it strengthens below that, there will probably be losses relative to how much it strengthens.

The US Federal Reserve spoke and they are happy with inflation. Equities (S&P) rallied and USD slumped against the Baht and the Pound. USD down, Pound up, Baht up.

On 3 January, TCT (Tourism Council of Thailand) forecast 20 mill. On 11 January in the Bangkok Post, Krungthai forecast 22.5 mill. On 24 January The Diplomat reported a government forecast of 25 mill. On 2 February, TCT forecasts 30 mill.

Same with any encounter like that, call the insurance company or a lawyer and let them deal with everything, you stay out of it.

And in the meantime, lots of people get ripped off. I imagine you will have seen all those families in the UK before Xmas who bought expensive tickets to those Lapland Xmas experience or similar that seem to appear every year, it's the same opportunistic ploy used everywhere in the world when there's an opportunity.

No, NF.

A road user is a road user, anyway, you're the one who's been pulled 100 times, not me so you tell me who is smart.

I will, that and tunnel vision

I came here from Hong Kong, after handover in 1997, plus, I've never ridden a bike here, not even as a passenger. But I have gone through three new cars so I have lots of driving experience here. If any more questions, feel free to ask.

Incredible, amazing, solves crimes by reading social forum posts. You missed your true calling.

If you've been stopped 100 times you must be a right dodgy geezer. And if you can't learn what side of the road to drive on, why should we believe that you have the skill to decide who controls all the drug trade her, sheesh guy!!! ????

You know the track record of the rtp, in your mind, I don't have that constraint.

I might have been perfectly happy with that were it not for your use of the word educated.

That's really very naive! What kind of tourist comes to Thailand and spends 5k a night on a 5 star hotel and then thinks a boat trip on the river cost between 5k and 20k! Tourists need to use some common sense and help themselves just a little bit, nobody ever said you couldn't get ripped off in a tourist area but that happens almost everywhere in some shape or form.

If you'd have given the TP pizza you would have caught a lot of flack on this forum!

I couldn't begin to guess at the percentage but I'm certain the majority are honest. I don't know if the system is or is not designed to support integrity but it's probably not the easiest for the ones that have it. Most people base their views what the police force is and isn't on forum discussions such as this, high profile cases such as the Taiwanese lady and casual observations of motorbike stops, most of which are aimed at tourists in tourist locations. I seriously discount these discussions as anything close to serious because it's herd behavior for the most part, the serious views that are worth considering can't be seen for the surrounding noise. The motorbike stops in tourist areas are a bit of a game for me, it's almost like a fringe benefit where the gullible and the retarded are made to pay up. Let's face it, it is within everyone's power to be 100% legal and survive a majority of those stops by having all the correct bits and bobs and wearing a helmet....most do not and believe the rental shop owners who lie to make a sale. And which tourist on holiday here wants to wear a helmet in the hot sun, especially when lany locals don't.

You went to the roulette table and had a choice between red and black, you chose red and you won. Please don't try and make out that there was talent or skill in that choice!

.....is the correct answer, and then flag it as spam.

When people say "police check points", I guess they refer to the motorbike checks that are set up for a few hours in various locations. In the North, when I think of checkpoints, I think of those set up on major North South roads (and backroads) to look for illegals and drugs, those are the most common ones for me and that's where I'm likely to be stopped because nobody is immune and the police there are not looking to rip off foreigners, they are there doing their job. The motor bike check points that other see, they are NEVER a problem for me, I am ALWAYS waved straight thru because I drive a truck and my road tax is always up to date. Opinions are formed based on what people see mostly, just don't forget to imagine the rest because it's the much bigger part.

You see this is a major part of why I will always disagree with anything people like you say, because you completely ignore the parts you can't see or imagine. If there was no police force, the drug trade in Thailand would swamp the country in no time and chaos would ensue, the economy would just collapse. The Thai police do a decent job of taming that industry and protecting people. They also do a very good job of managing Thai on Thai crime, which is something they understand and which most foreigners never see. Too many farangs seem to think the sole reason for the existence of the RTP is to milk farangs and conveniently overlook everything else, it's like farangs once again want to be the center of attention, just like the story that their 800k baht is propping up the economy. People should get over themselves.

You are joking of course, the family members all benefit directly or indirectly and the family unit is strong here, why would they snitch and if one did, snitch to who! I've seen this benefits stream in action (and continue to dos so) and could tell some stories but I don't want to stick my neck out that far. Suffice to say, the whole family benefits.

Everyone is of course looking for the exchange rate crystal ball and tips for what will happen to the rate in the future. Whilst that doesn't exist in real time, there are things that help point towards this in slow time. For example, the relationship between what's happening to the stock market indices and the Dollar exchange rate. USD and the S&P are mostly negatively correlated, which means when one rises, the other falls, most of the time. When USD strengthens, it takes fewer Dollars to buy assets such as oil and gold and equities prices will typically fall. Also, when USD strengthens, investors typically go in search of cheaper assets overseas, this means more hot money and FDI for economies such as Thailand. An old rule of thumb is, equities up, currency down, and vica versa. In summary, in very simplistic terms, a strengthening Dollar implies equities may be weakening and that the Baht is weakening against USD, which is partially offset by FDI inflows - these things are exactly what happened in 3rd and 4th quarters last year.. The degree to which these things are true is determined by the extent or severity of the strengthening or weakening of the Dollar, the greater the moves, the more likely THB will move in the opposite direction. For example: 1 October 2022 S&P - 3,585 USD/THB - 37.80 1 February 2023 S&P - 4,077 USD/THB - 32.87 That's all well and good you say but I don't care about yesterday, I want to know about tomorrow. That answer depends on the US Fed and markets reaction to what is said (today, US time) about inflation, because that will determine the direction of both markets and USD and ultimately point to what will happen to one of the great influences on Baht value. Don't lose sight though of what is happening on the Baht side of the equation, which at present appears quite strong.

Whilst the, "I pretend to live in Thailand year round, but actually I spend nearly all that time in my bedsit in Burnley" group, are making a heck of a racket!

Many of the posters here who are saying that every single Thai copper is bent are the same ones who don't like the police in any country. And whilst claiming all the police are bent, many will be using dodgy agents to front up the 800k they need for their visa........double standards of adherence to the law! They are the same ones who are likely to have had run ins with the law in the past and don't like rules in society. To a man they will all be claiming to be UK resident whilst collecting UK State pension increases from the beach in Thailand. And a very good morning to you too. :))