nigelforbes

I give up, how many!

Click on the link and rad the graph, duh! Here, a simple read: Surpassing 400,000 deaths means that 1 in every 820 Americans has now died from Covid-19. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/01/19/us-hits-400000-covid-19-deaths-nearly-1-in-every-800-americans/

No you're not, you're still being paid the $2,000+ you agreed when you took the job! If you thought that USD/THB was going to remain at 38, you didn't do your homework. the typical range for USD/THB is low 30's but the forecast is that THB will only get stronger. And given that the US is headed for a recession, USD is likely to weaken further.

Currency value is measured against the key Reserve Currency, USD, the prime relationship is between individual currencies and USD. When USD strengthens, individual currencies appear weaker, even though they haven't changed in value in their own right, per se. USD strengthened earlier this year because the Federal Reserve Bank became hawkish on inflation and let it be known they were going to keep raising interest rates, until inflation was under control. That news attracted capital inflows into USD based assets where they could make a better return, and, it also caused the value of USD to strengthen. Subsequently, markets now have sight of how far and how fast the Fed will increase rates and the value of USD is returning to near normal. Meanwhile, the Baht went from 30 ish to 38 ish and is now returning to low 30's. Why? Because USD has returned to its near normal level AND because the forecast for the Thai economy is better than many other economies. Why? Because Thailand has a comparatively lower volume of debt than other economies and almost none of it is foreign debt. Plus, Thailand is an export based economy and tourism is classed as an export, export bills are denominated and settled in USD). This means that as tourism has improved and is indeed forecast to improve even further, the current account will be in surplus (more exports than imports) and BOT's foreign currency reserves will increase even further, all of which will cause THB to strengthen. BOT's increases in interest rates were very mild by comparison, probably to help protect consumer debt but also to help narrow the gap between USD and THB and protect capital inflows. Lastly, the US economy is not doing better than expected but the value of USD has normalised. The US is headed for recession and this will effect earnings, plus, the Fed will keep increasing interest rates.

I hear Blackpool and MOrecambe are nice at this time of year, bit nippy but nice.

Stop it! Raising interest rates is not intervention, officials saying there is no recession is not intervention, inviting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is not intervention.

There was no intervention, USD fell in value over the same period from 114% to 103%.

If your application is in English, you will be ghosted.

Sorry, what I wrote was not precise. Bangkok Bank explained to me that if the account was opened using the pink card as ID, that is what is required to transact on the account. But if the passport was used to open it, the passport must be produced every time. What you cannot do any longer, or so they tell me, is open an account using a passport and then use the pink card thereafter to transact on it.

Actually, a pink card number should do the trick since that replaces the passport number on the account.

Sounds like being an anti-vaxer comes with a price, above and beyond the risk to health (as if that wasn't a high enough price to pay). It sounds like they wont be allowed to travel either, or at least, not to Thailand. Hmmm, who to blame for this own goal and vacationinteruptus? Why, the Thai government of course, it couldn't possibly be their own fault, noooooo way.

India has already placed restriction on travellers from Thailand: https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/china-covid-travel-restrictions-intl-hnk/index.html

Look at my post on the previous page and the link to Worldmetter and the US unvaccinated death rate, it's 1 in 820 people.

It's YOU!

This is the implementation of AMLO, anti-money laundering laws, it's been going on for a while but not all expats have encountered it. When I first reported this many months ago, folks here said I was nuts and that banks didn't do that.....ha!

Perhaps on your planet but not here on Earth.

My wife and I have had four vaccinations each and we both caught covid two months ago. It was very mild and cleared up in seven days. You have a choice.

That 1 in 800 figures represents mostly unvaccinated people in the US who died. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/united-states-rates-of-covid-19-deaths-by-vaccination-status?country=~50%2B

The manager had a little ladder installed, next to the buttons.

Theoretically yes, in practise probably the chance is very very low. If you have already built up antibody resistance via jabs and by catching covid previously, your immune system will deal with the virus very effectively in short timescales which means the window in which you could transmit the virus to others, is very small. The problem comes in when a person catches the virus and doesn't have effective antibody resistance and struggles for weeks whilst their immune system deals with it, that window for transmission is much larger. and longer

Yes you need a broker but you can buy funds through banks, mostly they are not great value because of commissions. It you really want to invest in Thai equities, the better way to do so is offshore using funds......the costs are much lower and the risk is lower because of governance and oversight in UK and US trading markets. Trustnet, Morningstar and Hargreaves Lansdowne all have plenty of analysis and options that you wont see here. I held CG-LTF through UOB (Thai) and it was a disaster, even more so when Thai Airways filed for bankruptcy and the fund lost all share earnings since the initial share purchase, back in the year dot! I like (and hold) FSSA Asia Focus and Stewart Investors Asia/pac Sustainable Leaders. It's worth noting that almost none of the major funds hold more than a couple of percent in Thailand equities, Aberdeen may be an exception.

You're a funny guy! Pre-1997, THB was pegged to USD at 25, after the crash it sank to 50. In early 2000, Bangkok was only a fraction of what it is today, the transformation has been amazing to witness. Currency collapse? Quite the opposite! I expect to see THB/USD back at 25 within 10 years, all things being equal and so do the markets. Yes of course there are issues with foreign pensioners and expats but those things are hardly Thailand's concern. And of course there are issues with the uber rich, most countries have similar.

Why not indeed. I was not advocating they shouldn't, merely making early observations on the announcement. Personally, I think everyone should have five shots, should have a mask stapled to their face and should carry USD 1 mill. health insurance....job done

Importers can buy from whoever they chose, if they don't like the price they go elsewhere because once the deal is done, they have to pay. BUT, the Thai exporter can sit on their USD for years if need be, or they can now chose to invest the USD overseas before repatriating it. Many now will sit on the USD/invest it, until the rate swings into their favour once again. BOT changed those rules specifically to help prevent the Baht from strengthening too much, previously, exporters had to exchange it into THB within one year and couldn't invest overseas. But let's be clear, Thai exports average around USD 24 billion every month, we're not talking about "Orchid farmer or Thai silk seller", we're talking a much much larger scale.

Interestingly, I also used to live on the 16th floor, the mossies would sometimes travel to upper floors in the lifts.