nigelforbes

I wonder if you realise that, over the time frame you mentioned, the Baht strengthened because exports increased and tourism increased also. The number of tourists doubled from 19 million to a record 40 million tourists in 2019. Over that same timeframe, GDP increased from USD 407 bill. to USD 544 bill. And do you realise that USD, between 2004 and 2015, was very very weak, between 75% and 85% at max. In 2015 USD strengthened and it has remained strong ever since. Did all those things happen because somebody was manipulating the Baht or did they happen because the Thai economy got much stronger, USD got much stronger and the Pound weakened, all of which caused the Baht to strengthen and this is why you have never seen 50 since?......I wonder! Your connection between 50 Baht to the Pound in 2014 versus 40 Baht in 2023, and the "unelected PM" taking office, is a simple and convenient explanation, but it is the wrong answer. https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/gdp https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/tourist-arrivals

I just spotted this late amendment. It's a circle, or rather a cycle......attract foreign tourists, earn income from them, bank their foreign currency, the Baht strengthens as a result, mostly because the Foreign Currency Reserves have increased. Prices increase, attract more tourists, rinse and repeat. Nobody too much cares how many Baht tourists get for their currency, only the tourists care. And to mention.....international tourism is only about 11% of GDP and not too much of that involves USD to THB transactions. The much much bigger impact comes from exports which are over 64% of GDP and 60% of that IS settled in USD/THB, because USD is the currency of export bill settlement.

Nah! Weed was in common use amongst the 18/35 year old group from 1970 onwards, it was widely available and widely used, even in the open, in California and in Michigan. There was no underworld figures or even near underworld figures involved. In our circle of friends about 15/20% were vets who'd been in Vietnam and a couple of them were doing harder stuff, along with a French guy who migrated from weed to coke to heroin, he ended up blowing his brains out. Mostly young middle class Americans, starting out in life and careers, one an accountant, another worked a manager for Edison. One guy, Mike, worked for the City's control room watching the freeway camera's and controls. He was a sky diver freak, jumped out of planes over 200 times, on acid, you can guess what happened eventually!

There used to be a YouTube clip of a fight outside a bar in Bangkok, around soi 4. Three of four guys had attacked an older white mail who was down and out but was still being aggressively kicked in the head, repeatedly, by a young Thai guy who had no concept of the damage he was doing. What was striking, apart from the degree of brutality, was the laughing face of the young guy who was thoroughly happy and pleased with what he was doing, it was as though he was on the soccer field with a football. Scary and not untypical, by all accounts.

Earnings season begins, it will go one way or the other, probably dramatically.

I lived in mainland China for three years, if you have the opinion that the people are dirt poor, you've never been to China except perhaps on day trip to Sha Tau Kok.

Actually, understanding the "how" is only one half of the picture, understanding the "why" is the other. Knowing what makes THB strong or weak, potentially means you can look for those factors rather than just watching a single exchange rate alone. A pre-requisite is a strong Dollar, a second requisite is a flat or down trending baht, typically in low season or at times of global economic stress - the Pound it can be assumed is broadly going to remain weak for much of the time. We've just seen USD at 115% and THB stressed because of covid, that was prime GBP/THB buying time, 46.22 was the low point but it's very unlikely to reach that point again for quite some time.

If you know how something does work, you also know when posters are you telling you something different. I know for example that fluctuations in the baht exchange rate are caused by it's components, not by manipulation. Posters who don't understand how it works, don't know that so they invent reasons to disguise the fact.

Just because somebody knows how something works, doesn't mean they know what it will do next, nobody knows that.

Two points: The value of the Baht on the FOREX only goes up relative to other currencies, if it is bought using USD or a USD connected currency, it is the linkage between USD and THB that has to be influenced for the value of THB to change. Tourist spending from countries whose currency are not connected to USD, directly or indirectly, have no direct impact on the FOREX value of THB. There is however an indirect impact because that currency will become part of BOT's Foreign Currency Reserves, which also influences the value of the Baht. The majority of currency strengthening impact comes from exports and Capital inflow's rather than from tourism. Under the present economic circumstance, BOT will be selling baht to weaken it, not buying it to strengthen it.

Ah yes, that's a slightly different aspect. I say there's no manipulation by BOT but there is almost certainly collusion by major dealers because that is not uncommon even in London and New York.

That's not true at all. Many people find it difficult to understand, others find it easier to cling to the simple story line of manipulation. With a little effort and concentration it's all really quite simple. You don't have to be a Soros to understand it but you don't need to be a bumkin and ignore it either. To add. BTW there's no getting rich from understanding this, it doesn't change much at all.

That's true about tourism and the demand for Baht except BOT will not be buying Baht under therpesent circumstances. As said in other postings, if anything, BOT will be selling Baht in an attempt to stop it from rising too quickly, that's the biggest problem today which is likely to impact exporters soon.

The US Dollar is weakening, that's why the Pound appears to be getting stronger. USD is measured on the US Dollar Index, see the graph below. USD has gone from 95% up to 115% in the first 10 months of 2022 and has then fallen from 115% to it's current 102%, in the last two and a half months. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy As the Dollar has weakened and appeared to provide more Pounds, it also has made THB appear to be stronger. Independent of that appearance, THB has strengthened in it's own right, because of capital inflows and because of news that Chinese tourists will arrive. Sooo, USD down, Pound flat, Baht up, ergo, the Baht produces less against the Pound.

"Dollar/Pound is subject to movements in either the Dollar or the Pound whilst Dollar/Baht is subject to movements in either Dollar or the Baht. But Pound/Baht is subject to movements in either Dollar, Pound or Baht". That's the short answer, the long answer is background and explanation why GBP/THB is subject to the movements of three currencies not two so that posters can better understand.

Apparently not, many many posters seem not to understand. Sorry, you've lost me, which fancy terms, if there's something you don't understand, feel free to ask. And I'm sorry the post was so long, not everyone has your lightening fast intellect and intelligence and need things spelled out in detail.

(copied from a previous thread/post of mine, linked at the very end below). There are four classes of FOREX currency pairs, Major, Minor, Cross and Exotic. There is no fixed relationship or scale whereby if one currency has a value of X to USD, then another currency must equal Y to USD. Both sides of a currency pair move independently, unless a fixed rate of exchange exists. USD is the very top of the FOREX tree, SOME other currencies have a direct relationship with USD, currencies such as GBP, EURO, YEN etc which are also lesser reserve currencies, those are the major pairs, USD/GBP, USD/YEN, USD/EURO etc. Minor pairs are those that involve other reserve currencies such as the YEN or EURO, paired against lesser currencies. These lesser currencies do not have a direct relationship with USD. Then we have cross currency pairs, an example of which is GBP/THB. THB does not have a direct FOREX relationship with GBP, instead its value is determined by USD/THB and USD/GBP, the calculation is USD/THB x GBP/USD. Finally we get to THB which is an exotic or boutique currency, it has a direct relationship with USD but it is so small as to not be of consequence in FOREX terms. Soooo, Dollar/Pound is subject to movements in either the Dollar or the Pound whilst Dollar/Baht is subject to movements in either Dollar or the Baht. But Pound/Baht is subject to movements in either Dollar, Pound or Baht. There's a link below in this forum where FOREX is explained is greater detail, if that helps.

The charts and link below shows which countries are considered to be currency manipulators and more importantly why, interestingly Switzerland, and Vietnam are two of the biggest offenders, according to the US Treasury definition. BUT the problem is not really currencies, the real issue is trade and especially a trade imbalance with the US. These are countries, Thailand included, that export lots of goods to the US but don't import an equal amount in return. That causes the current account surplus which in turn causes the currency to strengthen. Remember, USD is the Reserve Currency and export bills are settled in USD. If you've read the two links I've posted, two things should be clear. The first is that currency strength is a bi-product of successful export levels and lower than average import levels. The second is that these countries are trying to weaken their currencies, not strengthen them, at least that is the desire because a weaker currency supports exports...catch22. There is of course a point at which weaken becomes too weak, hence the sweet spot of 32 or 33. Lastly, if you read the first link you'll see that BOT engages in forward contracts to hedge against foreign currency fluctuations. The author classifies that as currency manipulation but I doubt many other do. Personally, I regard that as a sensible risk mitigation measure, especially since the US is seemingly unable to keep the value of its currency even a little bit stable (not a bash, just a simple fact). https://www.cfr.org/article/tracking-currency-manipulation

The following link talks about currency manipulation in Thailand in 2017 and may help some posters shed their blinkers since it too talks about current accounts and surpluses, along with the US trade problem. One quote of note is that Thailand, "is pretty clearly now intervening to hold its currency down". https://www.cfr.org/blog/thailand-currency-manipulator

At age 40 there aren't that many tests you will need, unless you have specific symptoms. Yes, the hospital health check packages can be very expensive. I used to use McCormick and before that RAM but I never felt they were good value for money. I started going to the CMU Outreach Clinic at Ruamchok and ordering my own blood tests, they have a pick and chose list that is as extensive as any hospital and the prices are very low. Their blood testing lab is accredited and handles the blood tests for clinics in CMU hence it's reliable. You can also order chest x-rays, ultrasound and other tests, on demand. The hard part is figuring out which tests you need but a little research should help with that. I would think a complete blood count (CBC), liver, kidney, cholesterol, blood sugar, prostate and maybe a cancer marker check, total cost under 5k baht. Any test that returns an out of range result is so indicated and can be followed up with a doctor or hospital for further investigation.

Morgan Stanley is not a he, Morgan Stanley is a bank.

I think the 35% and 65% relate to the percentages of domestic versus international tourists, (8% and 11%), weighted to reflect spend by each group (international tourists spending more per capita).

Like so many other posters here, you use the word manipulation without understanding what it means in an economic sense, as it pertains to a Central Bank and the currency, nor do you understand the role of a Central Bank. You think that manipulation is to buy and sell Baht, without understanding why. You also do not understand that there are many other ways to alter the value of the Baht, without resorting to buying and selling the currency. The second the Baht moves in a way that causes surprise, somebody screams manipulation and tells us how the mysterious “they” have been doing it for years….poppycock! If people would but study Thailand’s economic framework they would quickly realise that the value of exports are nearly always greater than imports. Why? To protect home markets, products and suppliers, plus it ensures a current account surplus, which means a strong Baht. That is the framework within which currency manipulation has to be viewed, as do the actions of the Central Bank. THAT is the problem that causes the US to call Thailand a currency manipulator, not Central Bank intervention. So when the Baht rises and falls and posters cry “fraud, they’re buying Baht again”, it’s so far removed from the reality that it’s beyond sad, it’s like suggesting the car won’t start because the tire is flat.

If I may just summarise the plan: We're going to ask government to extend the 45 day visa until the end of the year and hope that more Chinese tourists arrive.

And just like that, he was gone. ????