Mike Lister

Those are recommendations that might come from doing the analysis, we're more interested here in understanding the inputs to the analysis, not what the answers might be downstream.

That's a good read, thanks, anyone interested in the direction of the US indices should click the link. One issue we can add to the con side of the argument is the risk that investors will continue to hold lower risk bonds over higher risk equities, because the gain in equities is not sufficient to justify investing. BUT, that's what Wall Street was saying last year and then in November, the S&P surged and made equities far more profitable than bonds but few people saw it coming.

Apologies, you are correct, I got my wires crossed as a result of a separate exchange. Income remitted in 2023 that was earned in 2023 is still taxable, if earned previously it was not.

Sure, but that's commonly understood anyway, some are saying before end Q1.

Read the Sherrings link and get back to us..

Why so confused, that change in the year income was earned and remitted is the entire basis of the new RD rule, it's fundamental to all these discussions.

:) Not you, the vid.

The markets are pricing in cuts of 2% through out the year, it will impact different people in different ways but overall it will produce benefit..

Back on topic please!

Actually no, it has not always been the rule, the new rule specifically sets out to change that aspect. Previously, income earned and remitted in the year it was earned, was taxable, if earned in a an earlier year it was not.

Sherrings, in their link, merely quotes what others have not read or understood, in that respect they are far better equipped than most well informed laymen, or at least better than many AN posters ! They paraphrase the RD announcement, Por 162, dated 20 November 2023, which says that income derived prior to 1 January 2024 is specifically excluded. The link has been supplied above, all you have to do is click on it and read it.

Fed rate cuts will impact the bond market which will cause mortgage interest rates to fall. It will also put more money into consumers pockets as the cost of their mortgage repayments fall, this in turn will boost consumer spending.

My portfolio is spread globally, as follows: Equities = 47% The remainder is spread across bonds, gold, money market and other things. Of the 47% above: US= 49% UK = 7% EU = 13% Dev Asia = 10% EM = 12% Japan = 7% Aus = 2% Really, this thread looks at the 47% of the 49% above rather than my overall investment strategy, which may change at some point, or it may not, depending on the analysis.

Incorrect, income earned prior to 2024 is specifically excluded: https://sherrings.com/foreign-source-income-personal-tax-thailand.html

The question I ask is, what are the key pluses and minuses that will cause the US S&P to climb or fall, during 2024, below is a brain dump to get started. Please not I've updated it to include a suggestion: Pro’s Falling interest rates mean consumers will switch out of Services and into Goods, where the S&P is heavy, even if GDP is not. Valuations remain high but improved operating efficiencies could mean that profits remain high. A weaker USD should help promote exports and increase demand, AS LONG AS importing economies are able to buy. Note: the election outcome is potentially negative or positive, based on its outcome so is SPECIFICALLY EXCLUDED. Con’s The risk of a credit bubble weighs heavily, Blackrock exited US markets completely as a result The (Bond Market) Yield Curve is inverted. The 10 year and 3 month spread is a key recession indicator, it represents the relationship between long-term bonds and what’s often considered the risk-free interest rate. In late October, the 10 year-3 month spread turned negative for the first time since February 2020. It is now almost twice as negative as the 10-2 year spread. get.ycharts.com/resources/blog/inverted-yield-curve-what-it-means-and-how-to-navigate-it/#:~:text=An%20inverted%20yield%20curve%20is,more%20than%20shorter%2Dterm%20ones. Markets are over valued, using historically averages, by between 32% and 50% www.estimite.com/post/is-the-us-stock-market-overvalued/ Companies that must refinance face higher financing costs Excitement over AI may be creating a bubble Economists are split between a mild recession and mild growth in 2024. The war against inflation hasn’t been won yet and the need to reduce rates to stimulate economies is potentially at odds with winning that war. www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PCPIPCH@WEO/ECU Government debt is the highest it’s ever been, USD 34 trillion, and climbing faster than it ever has. Any action to reduce the debt such as government closure, reduced services might impact spending and markets. www.pgpf.org/national-debt- clock#:~:text=The%20%2433%20trillion%20gross%20federal,that%20it%20owes%20to%20itself. Climate risk is increasing which will result in higher insurance company payouts, loss of productive, business disruption and higher costs and losses. Global war risks have increased in the ME, Far East Ukraine which have to potential to increase the US debt load. Market gains are being driven by only seven giant companies rather than the broader market. In the year ending mid 2022, S&P gains were over 15% but if FANG stocks were removed, the gain falls to only 6%. The picture in the last few months is likely to be even more extreme hence indices are distorted.

Yes, thanks. I'm looking for factors that contribute to the analysis, not a rehash of the ones I've posted. Neither am I looking for an answer that might be derived from the analysis, eg, invest in defense industries. If you think you can contribute in any way to answer the question I have asked, that will be appreciated.

That's not the question I'm asking! I'm asking what are the pro's and con's that will effect the performance of the S&P this year, which covers only a variable portion of my investment portfolio.

With the US markets covering over 50% of the global investable world it's not always easy to not invest in the US, especially if you prefer global funds, like I do. Also, it doesn't make sense to me not to invest some amount in US markets hence coming out completely may not be the right things to do.....unsure, which is mainly why I posted the list above, in order to get the views of others. It might be that I need to rethink my approach and use regional specific funds rather than global funds, again, dunno.

A rational person with any amount of actual business experience would not even consider the concept that the RD would calculate days and then inform banks in real time that a threshold had been reached and that tax was to be withheld. That said, changes to Bank IT system to with hold tax at source would be a simple matter that could be done in months, not years. Income tax is conducted on the basis of the honor system in most countries, except where deductions of tax at source make it convenient and easy for all parties. Income tax filing and preparation is rearwards looking, albeit the timeframe involved is sometimes reduced from one whole tax year to twice per tax year or six month segments, in the case of the self employed.

Just like many others, I'm trying to decide what my investment strategy should be for the year and was trying to consider the pluses and minuses of what will happen to the US S&P. I invest globally but US Equities Markets represent over 50% of the Investable World and contagion from those markets will spread. The question I ask is, what are the key pluses and minuses that will cause the US S&P to climb or fall, during 2024, below is a brain dump to get started: Pro’s Falling interest rates mean consumers will switch out of Services and into Goods, where the S&P is heavy, even if GDP is not. Valuations remain high but improved operating efficiencies could mean that profits remain high. A weaker USD should help promote exports and increase demand, AS LONG AS importing economies are able to buy. Note: the election outcome is potentially negative or positive, based on its outcome so is SPECIFICALLY EXCLUDED. Con’s The risk of a credit bubble weighs heavily, Blackrock exited US markets completely as a result The (Bond Market) Yield Curve is inverted. The 10 year and 3 month spread is a key recession indicator, it represents the relationship between long-term bonds and what’s often considered the risk-free interest rate. In late October, the 10 year-3 month spread turned negative for the first time since February 2020. It is now almost twice as negative as the 10-2 year spread. get.ycharts.com/resources/blog/inverted-yield-curve-what-it-means-and-how-to-navigate-it/#:~:text=An%20inverted%20yield%20curve%20is,more%20than%20shorter%2Dterm%20ones. Markets are over valued, using historically averages, by between 32% and 50% www.estimite.com/post/is-the-us-stock-market-overvalued/ Companies that must refinance face higher financing costs Excitement over AI may be creating a bubble Economists are split between a mild recession and mild growth in 2024. The war against inflation hasn’t been won yet and the need to reduce rates to stimulate economies is potentially at odds with winning that war. www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PCPIPCH@WEO/ECU Government debt is the highest it’s ever been, USD 34 trillion, and climbing faster than it ever has. Any action to reduce the debt such as government closure, reduced services might impact spending and markets. www.pgpf.org/national-debt- clock#:~:text=The%20%2433%20trillion%20gross%20federal,that%20it%20owes%20to%20itself. Climate risk is increasing which will result in higher insurance company payouts, loss of productive, business disruption and higher costs and losses. Global war risks have increased in the ME and Ukraine which have to potential to increase the US debt load. Market gains are being driven by only seven giant companies rather than the broader market. In the year ending mid 2022, S&P gains were over 15% but if FANG stocks were removed, the gain falls to only 6%. The picture in the last few months is likely to be even more extreme hence indices are distorted.

You can suspect all you want but the likelihood is almost non-existent because there is no basis for launching an enquiry into the Mr Average Joe in Pattaya who pays 20k Baht a month in rent, eats street food, buys his beer from 7/11 and pays 350 baht for a restaurant meal. IF however, Mr Above Average Joe in Pattaya pays 120k a month for his Penthouse, drives a McLaren and is always covered in expensive bling, the likelihood increases. Nonsense, again! Liability to pay tax on your remittance does not exist until you have been shown to be tax resident for at least 180 days hence the first important date is not until late June 2024. Thereafter the liability is not due and payable until the tax return has been filed, because deductions and exclusions may outweigh any potential tax on the remittance. The fist potential liability date is not until 1 January 2025, at the earliest.

I don't know, it might help with his chanting plus he'd know where all the food local restaurants are.

US Social Security overseas is paid primarily on 3rd each month, not long to wait.

On second thoughts, I'm not going t spend any more time on this.

I have no idea how you managed to get from, assessing funds, to, I think your a moron so I'm not even going to think about it! I'll write some more words later about technical evaluation, after I get back from shopping.