shochu

Backflip,

You need to re-read my post.

As happens here so often - members mis-read a post and go off on a tangent. I thougth we were using english here - or are you using some kind of esoteric english.

Regarding the topic - it is a tricky balancing act as everyone knows anyone of the players can tip the house of cards - if they choose to. But in the long run - china will be much better off as they actually make things and the good ole U.S. only sells worthless paper. A country on the fast track to the term we like to say so often - 3rd world country - with gated communities.

Bowthai,

has in brief oulined the problems as they exist- and I concur.

VegasVic,

has also outlined what will probably happen - in china - but the question is when - cann they hold it until after the olympics? Do the U.S. want to do it to teach them a lesson in humility or are they also trying to hold it off to keep from having a heart attack themselves??

One can say for certainty that if china falls - the U.S. will have a heart attack.

One clear and evident thing about the U.S. these days - is the visible group of elderly who should be retired BUT are working in minimum wage jobs all over the country - a very sad fact.

Also - have you ever been in a wokring class and/or balck community such as in baltimore, or detroit and its suburbs like ypsilanti (spelling) - I had the misforutne of stopping there for gas once thinking hey suburb = safe - right ---WRONG. Almost never made it out alive. These places exist all over the U.S. - you just have to get out of the nice little enclaves in the major cities.

I for one do not want to live there although I do miss N.Y. a lot!

Timeline - how much longer can the PPT hold it off!

Bingo-matic,

Why all the doom and gloom???

Who ate your lunch and then some???

Yes, vietnam is hot right now - with hot money. They are looking for quick profits. As I have said many times before - TO YOU - exactly what you are trying to shout emphatically.

If you want to hit a good party - then go there - but when the party is over - who are you gonna cry to then. Will you then go and rant on a vietnam thread???

DUDE bingo-MATIC - give it a rest!

Trying to predict where a currency will be is very hard because we don't know everything happening behind the scenes and we are never sure of all the numbers being used. And - with my own investments - which I am up and doing very well on all - except of course with currencies (for now) but I feel that it will work out in due time for me in this regard eventually.

I feel that asain currencies will stay the same - whereas the dollar will continue to fall - and the baht will try to stay in tandem with it. Why? Because the U.S. is still a larger player in LOS than other countries - for now. So - I think the baht-dollar level will maintain its present course even as the dollar falls relative to other asain currencies.

This is based on fundamentals (which I won't get into - too long). But I will say this - countries have used their currencies for a long time by lowering their values to export their way out of trouble and this is evidenced by Japan and their currency the yen. The U.S. has so many problems the only way they can clear them is to devalue their currency which essentially lowers their debt value and at the same time with inflation - are the tools of the trade to make debt go away faster - and they have a lot of debt. This is especially effective when most of your companies (amercian) have a substantial amount of their income coming from offshore operations and with recent legislative measures allows then to bring the profits home for no tax liabilities and BOOM - you have the makings of on paper a great economy so why play with this system while you have to deal with a massive problem - which = dollar stays down and goes lower (if it can due to pressure from other countries) and LOS tries to at least stay close - so get used to more of the same rates for exchange or even a stronger baht - LOS fundamentals are quite good - unless - of course - something unexpected happens - or the PPT go into action.

My guess is as good as any other...so ... don't sweat it too much - life goes on!

Bruce,

It's a zero sum games except for the banking cartels that get to print funny money.

It all has to come from some where.

So who is luckier - you who had to be told by your bank that it went up 50% over a few years - or - the guy who invested $50,000 that paid out over a $1,000,000 in the same amount of time.

Who is the winner here. In the meantime, you think you are out ahead while everything is infating around us - so much that when we look at the rising stock market (U.S.) it seems to be breaking new highs - but - when you factor in inflation and and the depreciation of the mighty dollar - it is down - quite a bit actually. You really are not ahead - you are just not losing your buying power as quickly as others.

I'm not trying to rain on your parade here of making some dosh - so don't take this the wrong way - but unfortunately - most people do not have an understanding of how the world economy actually works.

It is really a ponzi scheme - these so callled bubbles - and as all such schemes - someone has to pay the piper.

When people actually produce a product or offer a real service as opposed to trying to make money off of other people's sweat - then I will applaud!

This bubble (of all sorts) is going to end with a lot of hard working people losing everything.

Whether intentional or not - the baht control and many other steps - whether misteps or not - I believe will in the end put LOS in a much better postion. This is not to say that LOS will not suffer in the short term.

WHY?

Because we are in the middle of the biggest paper money inflation in world history and those that rise the most will fall the hardest. Everyone is chasing something they can beat inflation with right now. Wherever they can send their paper assets to mop up some bubbles - they do. There is so much money chasing so few investments that there is a building boom like never ever before. And it will hit a wall soon.

What LOS has done is dampen things before they get out of control. When things hit the wall and fall LOS will be in a better position because things here are not inflated as much as elsewhere.

How do I see investments here - in particular condos? GOOD

Why? Because like any investment - if it is a place to live - it is always a good investment. Only you can decide what value it is to you. And, as the world begins to level out - LOS condo's are in relative terms for what you get - a good deal even in todays prices. Sure the prices will probably fall - but they will rise too. If you are a speculator - I would say stay out. If you are in for the long haul - you will be fine.

I think what LOS did was - essentially tell the hot money - to bugger off - and many other countries in the region secretly applauded them.

Also,

Samran - many thanks for the lead - about jumping through the hoops!

ColPyat,

Your last post seems quite on the money.

I hope BAF is not one of these guys (back in the 90's who thought that computer science was the IT thing) who now think that nursing is the right thing - WELL - just until the boomers start to really start retiring in numbers and they open the floodgates to al the training nurses in india, china, and such.

BAF, I think if you really are well off - then you would really enjoy thailand - or any country for that matter. Oh, by the way - the U.S. has bad schools, and is among one of the most dangerous countries in the world - IF - you don't live in a good (read - EXpensive) neighborhood. Hope you have the bucks to live the good life in the states. MY salary there - 1/3 for rent, 1/3 living expenses, 1/3 tax. I was lucky if I could save 500 bucks on a very good salary - the bonuses made all the difference.

Go to the wrong neigborhood by chance and you may never get out. Welcome to K.F.C. with bullet proof barriers like they have in all the banks.

O.P.

One makes his bed - AND - thus has to sleep in it.

I find the rules according to LOS more than acceptable and have no problems with them. I have never had problems here. Whenever I need some help - whether at the bank, immigration, whoever - it has been good.

Too often - people who say they have no money problems - HAVE - money problems. Retiring is a luxury - only to those who have earned it. If you thought you could scrape by on minimum - then you only have yourself to blame. And then going off on a rant about how thais' are this and that - is just pathetic.

If you really do not have money problems - then you would have no problems in LOS either.

Heng,

Many thanks for your generous contributions

AND

If I may pick one more morsel from your brain,

When these immigrants first arrived (Chinese, Indian) under what circumstances/situations did they enter and stay in the country - such as visa's, investments, property (buy/rent), work/business. I'm just curious as to how they made a go of it as they seem quite successful - more so than say the westerners here. Are they doing something different that we westerners do not know about or are we just not - as you say - jumping through all the hoops. Is it as simple as jumping through all the hoops. And what are all the hoops - how diificult is it? Or is it just having - as you say - a good dependable family one can trust with the family money. And is it just because the majority of the westerners here are trying the route via the Isaan girls that has them up against a wall.

If you could enlighten us with some more of your wisdom - I and I am sure others would be very , very grateful.

MANY THANKS SIR!

Heng,

Always such a wealth of knowledge. Do you mind if I pick your brain?

I always wondered about this and kind of assumed it - but I will ask you definitively - if I may.

1) So from what you are saying - many of the first generation immigrants came and after they had kids (in thailand) and after they became legal (at 18) then they were able to own the land through their kids?

2) Do they then change their names to thai names to make it legal to own land?

AND

To the O.P.

Why not live in another asian country and just visit LOS. One can have a pretty good career and make (save) more money here in asia if you are getting a good salary because the tax on income is so low and except for housing - most expenses are lower than in the west. I have many friends in the region doing the same and getting good salaries and saving a bundle and they are just a short hop away. Rather than driving to a cottage a couple of hours away - it's just a short flight away - and definitely beats driving.

Try singapore, hong kong, japan, korea.

If it's a career you want to maintain with a more western lifestyle.

CDNVIC,

Sadly there are too many individuals - no matter how much time they have spent wandering the earth - continue to do it the same (routine) way - and thus they never learn anything beyond the point they left their mothers laps!

Wisdom is earned - not borne out of time spent... !

I have no doubts vietnam is on the way up and I do hope they succeed in reaching a good level of economic benefits, but I have to wonder.

I spent a month in vietnam and traveled down the length of the country and always considered it a possible place to invest. When I was there a few years a go, and sensed the energy, I couldn't help thinking how everyone was scrambling to get to the top and I will be the first to admit the vietnamese know how to work hard.

But what I wonder is, after the late 90's when many firms pulled out due to the lengthy problems in getting things through and all the palm greasing - and now with the supposed changes I have heard about regarding all this and how they are now more pro-business - having just recently talked to a friend who was there not too long ago - saying that things were still the same and perhaps just large businesses with connections were going in because they really had no choice - and they were willing to put up with the hassles to be close to china.

Have the companies just bitten the bullet and are just going with it, or have things really improved. I am hearing they are still constantly moving the goal posts and changing the rules just to get a cut. And as I mentioned in an earlier post - even the vietnamese are having problems getting things done.

The dude - although you say it is alll clearly written re: the business rules - we all know that we still have to go through the individuals who may be asking for their cut. AND I have never been to a country where I had to work hard at not being ripped off. How have things improved in this respect?

And I do recall the owner of Q-Bar saying he would never go back to vietnam after starting his bar there.

If someone - thedude - Tyree-D. - can explain - I'm sure it would be helpful for many here who might be contemplating a venture in the country.

Ultimately, how have things improved? Can someone explain?

O.P.

Although there is much negative experiences, hence these views, I would like to say I know of two personally where both these guys are extremely rich to the tune of one of the them having gotten three of the best architects in the country to design him three separate homes back home. Both of these guys are divorced with kids from their first marriage. I know one of these ladies and she is from a very respectable family in bangkok.

Although the evidence thus far makes people lean towards the negative, there are many who have met great thai ladies, and yes older, that are happy and do not ever come to forums like this. Just proceed with caution and give it a go - one can only learn from experiences.

Didn't one of the guys from DHL leave a fortune to four thai women with which he had kids? Not saying this guy was a saint - but just...

There is always the possibilty she is genuine - however rare many here seem to think this is.

Vietnam,

Just had dinner with someone who tried to get married in vietnam - a brit and a canadian (these two had lived there for two years) - and they were told that it was hel_l running around for days even with vietnamese friends helping. Essentially, they were told by their embassy that they had to offer a $500 present. And all the marriage certs had cost $800. They said the hel_l with this and went to another asian country and got married in one day for less than $100.

This friend also said that a vietnamese friend with money who was trying to build a building had so many delays in trying to build it, even though this friend had "friends" in high places. Apparently this vietnamese complained a lot about how it was difficult even for the vietnamese to get things done.

So I asked - Then how come there is so much going on there now - how is it possible?

Answer - Don't know. Maybe the right people in the right places and a lot of presents.

I have a question for those that are still there - have things not changed since the 90's?

Americans seem to believe that their reference standards prevail in the world at at large, and nothing can cause their downfall.

Many events in recent history have illustrated that the U.S. mindset does not really understand the breadth of concepts in the real world as the U.S. goes from one self created disaster to the next, all justified with a huge fabric of dishonesty, obviously wholly believed by the U.S. general public as the continuous 24 hr a day propaganda dispensed by Skynews and the like ensures.

It is true that for many years the U.S. has been the most important economy in the world, but it seems that the U.S. is having difficulty in accepting that China will soon overtake it in importance, along with this process will come the ability to destroy the U.S.$s standing in the world, without the very sound reasons it is already slipping, and without the ability of say Iran to damage it overnight by just trading it's oil in Euros instead of U.S. $, and what do the Saudis think of the huge losses in real monetary terms they have sufferred from pricing their oil in U.S.$ in recent months? Do they have a plan?

The game is nearly up U.S.A. the TV pictures shown of your President walking round his garden holding the hand of an elderly Saudi King just about sums up the motives that have driven the U.S. nation in recent years.

Excellent.

Every major country has debased their currency (fiat) until they become toilet paper - only a matter of time. Think early 1900's - argentina - what a country - rich, beautiful, but, but then ....and France, and Rome, ...

The game ended when the Federal Reserve was created as a private company loaning money for interest to the U.S. - imagine that the fed owned by private banks - how many of you knew that? A major stake pounded in with bretton woods and soon....

There are too many things that could tip it - but it's a real fine balancing act because nobody wants to lose their investments in the dollar - but everyone knows it has to go down. Who wants to be remembered for the fall?

Obviously you haven't.

But thanks for telling me!

Cambodia was the shining jewel in the 50/60's - so much so that other countries in the region such as korea, singapore went there to study it - to find out how they could copy their success.

I have been there a couple of times and found the country manageable - had no problems whatsoever - but at night - I ususally had my driver take me places as even the locals (both native and expats) told me not to stray from the riverfront without a ride.

A strong gov't is required in order for a country to move ahead in the beginning and although they have one - I would liken him more to a dictator - and because of him, - cambodia will always be tainted in the eyes of many. And, any country that has just gone through what they have requires a generation to get past it before things can get back to normal. Until then I would never even consider cambodia as more than a place to visit once in a while. I can't imagine a politician's relatives here in thailand shooting up people because they were annoyed and getting away with it. Happens in cambodia.

Vietnam, is an extremely vibrant place with a lot of action. I'm not sure how far they are behind thailand - but I have heard at their present rate - maybe just over a decade behind right now. They are a hard working people and very much capital oriented and thus this is where their charms begin to wear thin. I have never been more ripped off or hassled than in vietnam. I think their gov't is a major plus right now for their country as they have a clear vision and they are taking vietnam there.

I heard that the rockefeller's (U.S.) had a contract with - I beleive - the communist gov't (vietnam) during the war to drill for oil off the coast while their boys were fighting and dying for their country.

But, I want to contrast the first sentence with this last one - wasn't it just a decade ago that all the foreign firms were pulling out and swearing they would never be back to vietnam because of all the red tape and corruption?

Funny what a little time does!

BAF,

I thought you weren't posting again?

Anyways,

Tell me how you went off on such a tangent with this sentence with the highlighted part clearly stating the obvious?

First, most of the world's most important universities such as Oxford and Harvard still follow the traditions started at Al-Azhar.

If you look at a satelite map of europe and include the nordic countries which are almost equal to western europe and include eastern europe - and calculate the roman empire based on archaeological evidence as opposed to an artistic rendering of a map - then I think you will find that the roman empire was about equivalent to about half of modern day europe.

FURGIE,

Ahhh shochu, you always seemed very good at running to the internet and getting a few facts to support your cause (though when someone counters this you find a reason to disagree with their facts and change the underlying basis) – where are your facts in these examples?

Care to show me where EXACTLY so I can counter it!

Also, polio as you so happen to use as an example, which I know a little about (because there are a few doctors in my family) - was never proven to have really improved things because when one considers the improvments in living conditions, sanitation, nutrition, overall health, etc. it is really difficult to correlate the improvements with the vaccine alone. What is clear, is that the vaccine has caused many deaths and crippled many kids (yes, i remember kids in my neigborhood with their crutches - do you?) although the average person wouldn't know since it was hushed up. IN fact vaccines have been proven to be very harmful and there are many deaths and illnesses related to vaccines (like my niece). I could go on but whats the point hey Furgie??

AND LETS NOT FORGET WHERE i SAY THIS:

Funny how according to your studies - the same people also say that asians are far superior to westerners. Should we be so bold as to believe this too? I don't - but I guess you do - right?

As I have said many , many times before,

Every country has benefitted from technology transfer and will continue to do so.

Every country has the ability to prosper given the right conditions and there being no barriers.

Thailand has this ability - can someone give me a convincing argument as to why this can't happen?

Furgie - where have I not been clear in my argument - please point them out or is that asking too much

Sorry FURBIE,

I have not gone to the internet for these things. They are a product of things i have learned over the course of my life.

Who said that western medicine was not advanced - just misguided in their aim for profits.

British Empire impressed me more - 1/4 of the world under Britannia. The Romans conquered for security, the Mongols for plunder, the Arabs to spread religion, but the British did it to go on holiday and not have to learn the local language - go UK!

I'm sure the Indians agree with you there!!

Then its back to being a factory foreman watching over assembly lines with their newly minted PHd's for a paper boys salary!

Ironically enough - sooner than you think!

Where did Thailand rank in terms of Roman direct foreign investment? Was it amongst their top four countries?

The thais new the roman empire was doomed so ...

And how about trying to relate it to how this all affects LOS in terms of investment.

BAF,

History speaks for itself.

Yes, the mongols went on a spree and conquered the most land ever in Eurasia.

Why didn't the chinese when they could have? Why instead did they send the most advanced ships to distant ports for trade instead?

Lets not discuss the immediate territory concerns on their borders - but beyond their immediate territory.

BAF,

The romans only occupied the equivalent of about half of europe in total territory.

And on the subject of medicine, that someone brought up,

What I have found - is that western medicine does not treat the cause - but only the symptoms, whereas asian medicine treats the root cause. I have also found the whole western (especially the american) medicine is a large industry made for plucking the money from our pockets. Start with the way the U.S. flouridates their drinking water - a chemical compound that was used during the war to pacify prisoners - and they tell us this is good for our teeth and bones. Over- flouridated people's bones crack and disintegrate. The whole industry along with the FDA, WHO, and many of these other organizations are really trying to , or should I say letting us, get sick so we will have to be treated. We are like the cattle raised on farms to be milked for profit. AND they perform unnecessary operations to maximize profit which will make us feel better now - but shortens our life in the long run and takes a nice chunk out of our savings.

In the U.S., the richest nation, among anyone who has coverage, if a family member gets sick, with a treatment not covered, the family will go bankrupt. Can't imagine what happens to those not covered - a slow death for the tens of millions without health care. The U.S. is ranked (i think 30th) behind even Columbia. In LOS, lets not forget still a developing nation, everyone can get medical attention for 30 baht. And they have a pretty ###### good medical system in place. Got to love this.

Sure the U.S. has some amazing technolgy in this area - but is it really necessary. There is new research coming out now saying that cancer is a product of our PH levels being off and other conditions related to our environment (read - processed foods and chemicals) and that all the cancer treatments being used by western hospitals is really bunk.

And you have to love LOS for telling the Phama giants to shove it and going ahead with cheap generic drugs.

All the food (in the U.S.) is irradiated so that all the important components are rendered useless. They tell us it is for our protection. It helps to think this way when we read of contaminated food all the time in the papers.

There was a study i read where someone had two plants - one which he used bottled water to water plant 1 - and, two where he used tap water microwaved to water plant 2. Conclusion, the latter (plant 2) plant died after a short time. I don;t own a microwave - maybe someone would like to try this experiment.

LOS has fresh fruit, and fresh food using fresh vegetables and the greatest source of vitamin D (the sun) and plenty of it. A strong immune system is the only way to a healthy life. Whenever I go to LOS I leave feeling great and extremely healthy.

Ya, I know there's polution - but hey we can;t win them all.

I have not been to a doctor in years, not even a cold.

I only eat fresh food, no processed foods, and fruits every morning

AND one day when I get sick I will give asian medicine a try! The people arond me all say it's great!

HOW does this all relate to the topic - it's all about the conditions that make LOS a great investment!

BAF,

Thats more like it - as I am getting tired of doing most of the lifting, I try to not say as much as necessary any more now and hope others will question things a bit more and try to look things up on their own. This is getting more like a discourse that can possibly enlighten us a bit more, although you did not read into what I was trying to say as much as I would have liked.

Al Azhar started a tradition that is the foundation of inquiry of most of the leading systems of higher learning, so without this start, we may not have had the empirical guidance to get to where we are now.

I used the term islam in a way to empahsize the point more, since more people will associate this with the current trend in thinking of us against them. As others have stated, the fertile crescent along with a few other places on earth such as china were where the production of food began. Without this ability, there never would have been time for people to start inventing and studying things. And, as I have stated in other discussions, all inventions were a product of things BORROWED from one place to another. Other nations were far more superior to and more advanced than the current western nations based on chrisitianity at the time. The difference was, that christianity was used as a way for nations to sanction their attrocious acts of genocide, slavery, and wealth transfer. Yes, Islam aslo did this, but not to the degree the western nations did. If they did anything, it was really in reaction to the church and their vassal states in their pogroms against people of other beliefs, and a way for the church to have a far reaching domain really for the subjugation of all people under their system. The chinese, on the other hand unified the area of current china and really were a trading nation with the islamic nations and really living more or less at peace with other peoples. They did not try to conquer and invade like the western nations have and create colonies to be raped and pillaged for their wealth. There has been trade happening between the various nations in asia for thouands of years - well before marco polo or the europeran nations supposed found them.

And most people in s.e. asia are of southern chinese descent. There were successive waves of people which began a few thousand years ago and as recently as in the past century. This is why some thais's look more thai and some thai's look more chinese - just a product of having been either recent or older residents of the region. There were really four chinese sub groups of which one is the where most of present day chinese fall under, and the other three - the hmong, austroasiatic (vietnamese and cambodian), tai-kadai (thai. laos), and austronesian (of which philippines, malay, indonesia, etc. )fall under. They have completely replaced the original inhabitants of tribes who arrived over 40,000 years ago - except for a few settlements of remaining pockets such as the malay negrito, new guinea, etc.

The reason I mentioned the wealth of math and science superiority is really if you go to any major uni in the western world, there is a large number of students from asia, and the numbers would be greater if not for the quotas. Their basic rote learning in these areas ensures they have a superior edge over western kids. And, I would like to add that many european countries also excel in these areas, whereas the north american schools lag far behind. This is why when some western students study in europe, in engineering they sometimes come back having failed. Western companies doing business in the middle east has nothing to do with superior ability - it is not because of any advantage in the sciences or work. Yes, they have had a head start, but if you understand the construction industry, it is really about who you know and this is what national gov'ts do for their co's - they try to make sure they get contracts. Why else would halliburton be in iraq, and many of the western co's are there because of their relationships - this is the way business works and always has. Of course there is some merit based work - but not as much as one would like to think. GEE, last time I looked, there were an awful lot of korean and japanese co's working in the middle east. And money talks, the better to grease the palms with.

There is no doubt that the western nations now lead in technology- but think about this - many western country's are immigrant nations with a huge exchange of ideas. As stated earlier, it is this exchange of ideas that is where technolgy advances. And i believe the immigrant population in many of the western countries have a large impact on any new developments in the sciences and technology. Look up any major tech company and see who the co's leaders are.

America is only superior now because they had the resources of great japanese and german minds to use as their own after the war. But even more important than all this is these western countries had huge head starts through war, slavery, colonization, wealth transfer and many other reasons - but most importantly one reason which I will not state - but you can try to figure out - and this common denominator is the only real reason left today why these wealthy advanced nations are in the lead. CAN you tell me this reason? Once this common denominator is relinquished - and it will happen - then the western dominance will subside and a new region will rise. As I have said before, it is a fallacy to think any one nation or people are superior - but it is a product of environment and as importantly - about policy. Unfortunately, the stronger control a gov't has on its people, the better the policy and ultimately the better abilty to compete. This is why you see a countries like korea and japan excel. Both these countries have a democratic gov't but really it is still more like a military gov' with a few very powerful elite that still control everything - no matter how it looks, as do the leading western nations - no matter how democratic you think they are. A country without strong leadership - will fail. And no I am not promoting military control - I believe I have a basic understanding of people and how civilizations work.

NOW having said all this - AGAIN - I submit that LOS has the possibility with strong leadership to move ahead irregardless of the recent hiccups because of fundamental strengths - which I will not outline - but if you do the work you should be able to figure them out.

I don;t know if I have covered everything but I have limited time.

And, BAF, the only reason - as stated by someone else - the romans had any civilization was because they inherited it from the greeks!

and, the barbarians did beat the more advanced and civilized romans.