realfunster

Could be, we've had something of a rally after correction/bear market but not sure we are out of the woods yet. Any troubling US economic data could see a further slide in markets...

Oh and US Q1 GDP and Core CPE (inflation measure favoured by the Fed) are being reported tomorrow,30/4. With a very twitchy market at present - buckle up if these come in below forecast expectations.

It should be a concern to all investors that the US might be on a path to "reset" the global economic system. If you are heavy on US assets, you may want to rebalance your portfolio a touch until things clarify. Worrying that the S&P, dollar index and US treasuries have all struggled in recent weeks. What remains to be seen is if this is purely window dressing by WH for political reasons or whether any tangible changes will arise.

Carney is a credible Prime Minister. Pierre will be inconsolable that he lost such a large poll lead over the past few months. Refreshing from Trudeau to Carney was part of it, I also suspect Trump's tariff and 51st state antics in recent months played a major role in persuading swing voters back to Liberal. An absolute nightmare for the Poilievre campaign. I must say, this appears strategically inept by the Trump administration, you would assume a relatively allied and somewhat like-minded political leader right over the border would be the preferred outcome with all the various matters to be addressed on borders, security and trade. Carney strikes me as a pragmatic Liberal (dare I say - think Tony Blair), so I expect he will still engage with Trump, but clearly not the ideal outcome for the White House. Maybe ultimately Canada is not that important to them but they could have just kept quiet for 3 months, got Poilievre voted in, quickly resolved certain matters with him- showing a roadmap to others and then launched their wider blitzkrieg... Yet more "winning".

Glad they show the crash 20x, so we can really digest it. OK - the taxi was trying to overtake the pick-up truck parking up on left side, silly and inconsiderate. Ambulance should not be concerned by minor vehicle collision damage to either car and just move on at haste to hospital....in total a potential 15 second delay. The video doesn't show what happens next, I hope not everyone exiting vehicles, calling insurance agents and waiting 30 minutes for them to show up..... On a positive note, in Bangkok at least, over the last decade I have clearly observed much more consideration from road users to allow ambulance to pass through.

Brilliant post. Could be added to the similar topic "Why do so many people hold and share strong/extreme political views, create long-winded posts and engage in arguments, when it has zero tangible influence on themselves, or the world" Go for a run, shag the wife, read a book, walk the dog, watch a documentary, get drunk, listen to music. All much more personally impactful and better for you than ranting on t'internet over things you cannot possibly influence.

Not sure that's entirely going to plan. I'll admit, some direct talking and action rather than the usual diplomatic bluster has probably rattled some cages and let people be aware the US are closely watching things, I suppose we will see how it all turns out but certainly there has been some damage to the US image in taking such a scattergun and blunt approach. 1) Agreed, he clearly and sensibly wants lower interest rates with significant US National Debt up for renewal later this year. Of course, that could have been done in various ways, with recent events, it's possible the FOMC will not want to be seen to bowing to Trump's will, so that may backfire. This week will be important with Q1 GDP data released, let's hope that clearly supports a rate decrease or FOMC might dig their heels in. 2) Nations lining up - not convinced on that one at this point in time but I suppose clearly "communicating" US dissatisfaction with current trade arrangements may trigger some changes. I see Bessant is now taking a more active involvement in all these economic matters. He is fairly well regarded in the economic establishment and likely seen as a more reasonable person. Perhaps a case of the classic, good cop-bad cop switcheroo.

Just FYI from WHO website, the numbers vaccinated are significantly higher than that... 13.64bn Total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered

That's true enough - I think it's well known that China has tried to circumvent previous US tariffs. Still, it doesn't make the numbers on the placards waved around by Donald anywhere near accurate. I guess it's the "shock & awe" approach to negotiations !

Hmmm, Google AI seems to be following the White House's line. I just searched "tariffs on US cars in Thailand: and got the following. "Interesting" that the back of a fag packet 72% tariffs are now being stated as fact. "AI Overview : Thailand faces potential economic impact from US tariffs on automobiles and auto parts, including a 25% tariff on automobiles and components, as well as a 36% tariff on Thai imports due to Thailand's 72% tariff on US goods. "

All very true - but I cling to the hope this is all bluster and a negotiating tactic 🙂 Let's be realistic, the US remains the global economic superpower, after the huffing and puffing, I expect pragmatism will kick-in and all sides will be looking for deals to be made rather than starting an escalatory trade/tariff war. Thailand for example, a healthy trade surplus with US. They can either walk away from that or negotiate a slightly less favourable US trade surplus. With China, they have a huge deficit and who knows whether Beijing sees reducing their current surplus as economically possible or politically advantageous. They might be able to expand trade with EU and UK. Currently neither of these have an FTA in place due to Thailand's protectionist policies... Anyway, we will see !

That Chinese consumer market has been there for eternity. As we speak, Thailand runs a trade surplus with US (beneficial to Thailand) and a massive deficit with China (negative for Thailand) and has done for many years. I wonder how/why this massive deficit with China will suddenly turn around ? "If" China starts offering more equalised trade with Thailand and others, I wonder how that will impact the Chinese economy Frankly, I can see why the Yanks have targeted Thailand. Been enjoying a trade surplus with them, whilst subsidising the CCP economy....

When we transitioned to globalism, there was a lot of domestic pain across developed countries. Those of a certain age will remember the mass layoffs in the manufacturing/manual jobs industries as these were offshored and we switched to a service based economy. This is still a developing scenario but perhaps we are seeing the start of a globalism re-set. I believe all will be looking for a negotiated settlement which will water down these tariffs. We will see how things develop. The tariffs are broad but you can see a pattern of heavier tariffs on those whom the White House are not acting in good faith. The US has no responsibility to subsidise other economies. I guess the White House feels that many countries take too much advantage of the status quo whilst engaging in protectionist policies themselves. Closer to home, as I have mentioned elsewhere : 1) Thailand has highly protectionist import and business restrictions. 2) Thailand runs a healthy trade surplus with the US, which the US might accept if it were not for (1) and I speculate particularly (3) 3) Thailand runs an unhealthily large trade deficit with US-nemesis China. Partly as China appears to have been able to side-step point (1). No particular view on whether this is the right approach, I'm just trying to analyse things beyond "Trump is a c*ck" 🙂

I was in the office Monday (high-rise) and did a walk round to inspect the obvious but minor damage to our site. I'll admit to being a bit twitchy for an hour or two but settled down soon enough. Quite a few Thai colleagues got swept up in Monday's mass unsubstantiated panic via social media, evacuated the building (via the lifts, of course 🙂) and took leave on Monday PM rather than stay in the office. Today more of my Thai colleagues returned back to the office and indeed, PEDZ seems to be the trending illness-du-jour. Interesting how Thais can be both so resilient at times and then equally as flaky at others... A quick Google indicates the Japanese have most commonly identified this condition in areas with major quakes followed by numerous significant after-shocks. The latter doesn't seem to apply in Thailand, unless sensitive folks that are on edge are picking up the numerous Myanmar after-shocks and others just aren't registering them. Two main factors are proposed (1) motion sickness - hardly seems likely to be long lasting in Thailand beyond a few minutes/hours after a 1 minute quake and (2) anxiety/panic - more likely. Advice includes avoiding doom scrolling and reading negative earthquake related news which may heighten anxiety. Presumably, that might include reading about PEDZ and feeding that into the anxiety feedback loop also 😉.

The burning obviously doesn’t help but I do recall that during COVID with massively reduced commuting in Bangkok and with many people working at home the air quality that year was significantly better… There’s even a Wiki page for it now : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Bangkok_smog

I saw Thailand was on the Top 15 list of US Tariff Targets. Not surprising - many protectionist policies in place, plus the real kicker is Thailand runs a huge trade deficit with China but enjoys a reasonable surplus with the US. Question is - will implementing tariffs on countries like Thailand bring them in line with US expectations or simply push them to align closer both economically and politically with their other trading partners ?

Reminds me of a very British incident many years ago at Uni...my mate was using one of those metal BBQ skewers to put a hole in a conker. Finding this time consuming and difficult, in frustration he cupped the conker in his hand, turned it upside down and then forcefully pushed down the conker onto the skewer. We were both startled when the skewer rapidly penetrated the conker, his palm and fully appeared out of the back of his hand. No lasting damage done. 😄

I can assure you the "HiSo rich" will got give a hoot about what amounts to maximum a couple of hundred thousand baht of annual tax savings. More interesting for the middle-class working man like myself, I will need to understand the scheme a bit more (if it ever happens) but the opportunity to save some tax on (i) new investment in ESGX and (ii) transfer of existing LTFs to ESGX is possibly interesting. Many will be in the same position as myself in that LTFs/SSFs bought from 2013 onwards will be in negative territory. Not such a great retirement plan... I'd read this as a policy move which clearly indicates that the SET is deeply struggling, the switch from LTFs to SSFs has not worked, and they are worried that people will cash out existing LTFs further lowering prices. I have already done so myself for some.

That's life - history shows you don't need an army until you do and if you are not ready, you are screwed. In the last week alone both the UK and now Germany have committed to increase military spending. I don't think Europe should be over-relying on US to ride in and save the day (again). Robust European militaries strengthen both the individual countries and the whole NATO group. The reverse is also true, China is highly dependent on exports to the US consumer market. China is 15% of all US imports. US is 16% of all Chinese exports but makes up around 46% of their overall trade surplus. (USD 404bn/USD 877bn - WITs/Worldbank) Whilst the US consumer will notice impacts on product choice and availability, a trade war means large swathes of Chinese losing jobs and potential civil unrest. I am not convinced that China wins a blinking contest on that one.

Once in a while, you hear something so dumb, so absolutely imbecilic and lacking in any critical thinking that it makes your head hurt. This is one of those occasions. Either ban Thais entirely or come up with a sensible entrance fee and/or financial requirement for Thais to enter. Setting an arbitrary asset limit of USD 1.5m plus is ridiculous and stupid. Maybe written by the same illogical people who come up with Thai Laws that punish with either a THB 500 fine or 10 years in prison for the same offence.

The EU have already walked back a touch and have recently announced some reductions to the corporate reportings required around Sustainability/Green issues. Practical reality is this. EU can try to take the lead on carbon reduction/net zero with the risks that involves around being a first adopter but I don't see much major traction on net zero from other major economies such as US, China, Japan and India. Well, that is apart from China, who are gleefully making all the solar cells and EVs to sell to environmentally conscious Europeans & Yanks whilst they continue to generate >50% of their electricity from coal. They are playing the game very well...

You can imagine these Chinese investors being promised the earth by agents when buying these condos, they are finding reality a different experience. Low yields, high costs and limited resale options. Let’s hope the condo bubble is not too big…

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Great news. I am looking forward to retiring immediately off the back of this impressive “surge”. On second thoughts, as I unable to identify any surge with my naked eye, and we are actually around COVID level lows, maybe I will have to resign myself to another 20 years of the 9-5 grind. SET must be one of the worst global stock markets over the past decade..useless.

Thinking about it - we had that horrible Bangkok bus fire a while back - I thought they were meant to be checking all these “Frankenstein” buses for fire and safety standards. It’s too early to say but the fact the entire roof peeled off suggests this may have been a fairly shoddy bus.