geriatrickid

1 hour ago, genericptr said:

With all due respect I think at this juncture it would be prudent to protect the elderly and allow the rest of society to start opening up.

Please provide a cost benefit analysis of your plan. Everyone is for the elimination of restrictions. However, before we can do that we should know what the costs are. Surely you can  give is a cost.

On 9/28/2020 at 1:19 PM, Mops59 said:

Hua Hin fits top.

Except for the air pollution which was pretty bad most of the year. The burning was ridiculous.

Otherwise good access to hospital, culture, shopping, dining, beach, quality residents.

The benefit of the old palace being there is that it keeps a lid on debauchery.

Unlike Phuket, no water shortages and the dengue epidemics are  usually less severe.

And soon a high speed train.

Again. This time a 3 year old.

What will it take to get this to stop?  

14 hours ago, nemo38 said:

No thanks, to an mRNA vaccine.

 

I am healthy, so my risk of dying from Covid is the same as my dying from the flu. I am pretty sure I got it back in February anyway. I want to be exposed to regular viruses as they come up, so I don't want to be forced to wear a mask.

 

It is incredible that students, who have virtually no risk from Covid, are being told to isolate. If this was about saving lives they would be encouraged to mix freely and catch Covid when they are away at college. That is a community service.

 

Your choice. I can understand hesitation on the use of an mRNA type vaccine. Mind you, the cancer patients who are being given a new lease on life because of the mRNA methodology would not agree with you. I bet you would be begging for an mRNA vaccine option if you had an inoperable  brain tumor or  cancer of your testicle.

In respect to what you think you had in February, it is unlikely. Many of us had that bad cold that was making the rounds. 

Your position that the university students need not worry is cavalier. Will you guarantee that they won't have blood clotting issues, fatigue, scarred lungs, myocarditis etc. that persists for weeks or months?

Political mess in the making.  Hundreds of quality low risk long term visitors wishing to enter are blocked.  Yet, the   Thai administration make a public spectacle out of 7 "wealthy" people from China.  it won't go over well with poor Thais and not with the hundreds of millions of Chinese who are not allowed to travel.

5 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Would you mind pointing out where? In your mind doesn't count.

 

I'm saying we don't know and it's still speculative. Sure, even after a bad cold it can take weeks to recover. Our bodies aren't some superhero robots, a heavy hit to the immune system will tax the resources. But we have no idea if there is something permanent or something that lasts for years. We need decades to find that out. Want everyone to be locked up for the rest of their lives? It's a risk humanity will just have to take.

You stated "It's been about 10 months or so, it's impossible to have had long term issues"

The medical pedagogy of infectious disease is not subject to your interpretation. It is an accepted definition that a problem that is caused by a disease or treatment of a disease is one that continues for months or years after the initial infection or disease resolves. Patients who have cleared their infections after a two-three-four and even six week period are reporting ongoing problems.

If a patient who had a Covid19 infection in February or March or April or May is in September reporting such issues as fatigue or brain fog, or if the blood analysis shows a hypercoagulable state, then yes there is a long term problem.  

For example,  in the USA, the NCAA suspended its football program; Too many young athletes who had been diagnosed with Covid19 or who had reported symptoms of the infection, were presenting with unexpected myocarditis. The conditions were only discovered subsequent to the athletes' medical exams. 

Yes, you are right that there is still a great deal more to learn. Unfortunately, there is enough information now to show that there are ongoing complications that arise due to the infection events to warrant the conclusion that a Covid19 infection can give rise to long term complications/impact/conditions in patients. 

12 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Thanks, I'll look at them.

 

Science seems to be about people who were hospitalized. So that's already <5% filter, IIRC. And they state: "But with the crisis just months old, no one knows how far into the future symptoms will endure, and whether COVID-19 will prompt the onset of chronic diseases."

 

CDC is a telephone poll - not trusting those, except perhaps "Relatively little is known about the clinical course of COVID-19 and return to baseline health for persons with milder, outpatient illness."

 

WHO - aggregates data, need their sources

 

And SARS isn't COVID.

 

The thing is, it hasn't been long term yet. It's been about 10 months or so, it's impossible to have had long term issues. We simply don't know yet and fearmongering ain't going to give us data any sooner. It's the same thing that was in play in Q1/2020: no data yet.

WHO - aggregates data, need their sources

As I read that aloud at the start of my Zoom call, I was greeted with hysterical laughter. Good one. There was giggling for 5 minutes.

On the off chance that you were serious,  yes, WHO aggregates data. it's one of their  functions. So does the CDC & NIH in the USA,  CIHR in Canada, NHMRC in Australia, NIHR in the UK and the European Commission's PHE, etc.  

Sources: They are called governments and they file their information in accordance with the reporting standards set out in the agreed upon operating procedures. 

SARS isn't Covid.

Ok. No one said it was, but Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) is a viral respiratory illness caused by a coronavirus, called SARS-associated coronavirus (SARS-CoV).

Covid19  is a viral respiratory illness caused by a coronavirus, called SARS coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2),

Do you see the similiarity? one is SARS CoV and the other is SARS CoV-2

It is accepted that SARS-CoV-2 is a sister virus to SARS-CoV, the primary viral isolate defining the species.  we have  very rigorous rules when  naming a virus and  similar names are not used unless - wait for it - there are close similarities in the virus.

You reject the SARS data in respect to extended complications. That's your personal choice but  changes nothing because the SARS data is considered applicable by common  infectious disease practice. If the principle wasn't there we wouldn't have common protocols for the treatment of infectious respiratory disease.

You say it is impossible to have long term issues. Your saying it is impossible does not make it so. We have patients who recovered from the immediate infections who are still reporting brain fog, shortness of breath, blood chemistry issues. The disease should resolve in 2 weeks for mild cases and 4-6 weeks in severe cases.  If  patients  report symptoms and issues are observed weeks later, they have long term impact.

According to you, we have invented the long term impact potential and all the medical data is false.

1. This Italian study found that in patients who had recovered from COVID-19, 87.4% reported persistence of at least 1 symptom, particularly fatigue and dyspnea.

Carfi A, et al. Persistent symptoms in patients after acute COVID-19. JAMA. 2020; doi:10.1001/jama.2020.12603.

2. This German study of 100 "recovered" patients showed cardiac involvement in 78 patients (78%) and ongoing myocardial inflammation in 60 patients (60%), independent of preexisting conditions, severity and overall course of the acute illness, and time from the original diagnosis. 

Puntman VO, et al. Outcomes of cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging in patients recently recovered from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). JAMA Cardiology. 2020; doi:10.1001/jamacardio.2020.3557.

And I guess this teaching  diagram shouldn't be used then, right?

 (Courtesy of Elsevier Connect - permission)

And yes, hospitalized patients  seem more likely to report longer term issues. This may be a result of their  being under closer surveillance/

observation. Also, wealthier patients tend to be better educated and are more likely to recognize and respond to symptoms. (Nothing unique in that as we see similar in cardiac care patients where the outcome is much better for better educated and higher income patients.)

9 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Mind linking that data?

How about you substantiate your denials? You wish to deny the  overwhelming evidence, go for it. Show us all that there are no patients with ongoing  impact. You know because you are right there providing the  first line medical service right? No/ How about you are  managing a response? No.

Start here;

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/brain-fog-heart-damage-covid-19-s-lingering-problems-alarm-scientists

What we know 

- COVID-19 can sometimes result in prolonged illness, even in young adults and children without underlying chronic medical conditions.

- There are many case reports from people who do not regain their previous health following COVID-19.

- Little is known about the clinical course of COVID-19 following milder illness.

-  In a telephone survey of symptomatic adults who had a positive outpatient test result for SARS-CoV-2, 35% had not returned to their usual state of health when interviewed 2–3 weeks after testing.1

- Among those 18 to 34 years in good health, 20% (1 in 5) reported that some symptoms were prolonged.

read this;

Symptom Duration and Risk Factors for Delayed Return to Usual Health Among Outpatients with COVID-19 in a Multistate Health Care Systems Network — United States, March–June 2020   https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6930e1.htm

As per WHO Data;

 COVID-19 may increase the risk of long-term health problems

 Body systems and organs that can be affected :

 • Heart - Damage to heart muscle, heart failure

 • Lungs - Damage to lung tissue and restrictive lung failure

• Brain and the nervous system Ø Loss of sense of smell (anosmia) Ø Consequences of thrombo-embolic events such as pulmonary embolism, heart attack, stroke  Ø Cognitive impairment (e.g. memory and concentration

 • Mental health - Anxiety, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder and sleep disturbance

 • Musculoskeletal and others -  Pain in join and muscles -Fatigue

What we already know from experience;

 Long-term health effects of other coronavirus infections

A study was performed on the long term effects of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), the coronavirus that emerged in 2003

• This study showed there was persistent and significant impairment of exercise capacity and health status in survivors of SARS over 24 months. Health workers who had SARS experienced even more marked adverse impact

 • Another study, revealed that 40% of people recovering from SARS still had chronic fatigue symptoms 3.5 years after being diagnosed

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7192220/ https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/415378

9 hours ago, diks said:

Why shouldn't they be 60% of the total. It matches closely with the demographics and those are the people who are out working, going to school etc., many of the older generation have been scared by the psychology of fear, so sit at home alone. Further they are the people who have been tested positive by the PCR test, that does not equal sick people.

The median age in the  UK is approximately  40 years. This means that 50% of the population is over the age of 40 and 50% is below the age of 40.  Right there is a significant  difference. More specifically, the surge is is observed in the 18-56 year old group. So no, it does not "match"  demographics.  The simple explanation is that it reflected who was most likely to socialize in large groups facilitating super spreader events: College & university students, and young people who form the backbone of many bars & dance clubs.

Initially it was the over age 65 age group who were most at risk. This is why the  infections were initially skewed to the age group. The over age 40 demographic is not "sitting" at home as they are  a prime component of the workforce. On the contrary, they are compliant with  infection prevention measures.

The testing has nothing to do with this. And the surge in young people is not a surprise and is exactly as predicted.

18 minutes ago, Crisu said:

Thats correct!

Look at the below daily Covid deaths in Belgum while since July the new Cases are rising without any effect on the daily deaths.

To put your comment in context the new cases are primarily younger people. We see in the  UK and Canada,  60% of all new infections are people aged under 40 years of age.

The deaths are lower because we now have some drugs that help ease symptoms and because fewer  older people are infected.

What is your point  about the lower death results? do you believe that the infected  just get better and the disease  heals itself in 2 weeks?  I suggest you visit the data to see the growing numbers of "long haul" patients as they are now called. Covid19 was never a death sentence. Unfortunately, it can  damage the lungs and  put people at an increased risk of stroke and heart attack.

19 hours ago, loong said:

I don't think that many of the posters here have actually seen the video.
The link is in the first post.

https://news.ch7.com/detail/440010

I didn't see any violence.
I saw a teacher that was obviously having some problem with a child. He lifted the child out of the seat and then shepherded him out of the door with a gentle(ish) nudge or 2.

That's your interpretation of the event.

Physical action against a small child under these circumstances  is inappropriate and wrong. 

I shouldn't have to explain it to you.

Adults who grab 5-6 year olds and lift them out of a chair in this manner are violent thugs.

I don't think there are too many parents who would tolerate their kid being manhandled in this manner.

The teacher is obviously unfit for the job. Perhaps he previously worked for the Duterte regime. 

Once again ignorant people   have emerged from the cracks to promote their maniacal claims of conspiracy and plots. It would be amusing if it wasn't so pathetic.  now some may feel, I am  too hard and mean to such people,  but honestly, their lies and delusions are annoying.

12 hours ago, jerolamo said:

"Expert" has been paid how much by big pharma industry to make people afraid the time a vaccine goes out to force everybody or blackmail them to buy vaccine ?

You are the one making the claim, so  provide some evidence. You know nothing about the vaccine effort throughout the world. NOTHING. 

Much of the vaccine will be produced and distributed by a not for profit entity. Nine CEPI-supported candidate vaccines are part of the COVAX initiative, with a further nine candidates under evaluation.  COVAX has the largest and most diverse COVID-19 vaccine portfolio in the world. it was created by France, WHO and the European Commisison and is co-lead by GAVI, the worldwide vaccine alliance.  You are clueless as to how the world's vaccines are manufactured. 

6 hours ago, cbc said:

His information about canada is wrong.There are two provinces ontario and quebec with cases of 500 plus with the latter being 700.The maritime provinces have very little covid with one province having three cases and the remainder having zero or single digit no higher then three.

Western provinces have low double digit with one province in the 125 to 135 range.Not thousands as he stated. Canada is doing very well managing the virus and the eastern provinces leading with the atlantic bubble.

His information on Canada is correct. The situation is now out of control in parts of Ontario and Quebec. Daily infections are now back to the levels they were in March. Quebec just reported 3 days of explosive growth  621, 686, 797 ; Ontario  the same 416, 491, 700 and British Columbia has had a problem since early September 68, 125, 74.

These 3 provinces hold 28 million of Canada's 38 million population. Quebec  has just imposed  bars, restaurant and public facility closures for the next 28 days in  the hardest hit regions. (Schools and businesses remain open). Ontario  may be forced to do the same in some large cities.

Yes, some rural regions don' have a problem, Nova Scotia's population density is 17 people per km. Toronto has  4,334 people per sq. km. 

1 hour ago, pandaburiram said:

Notice this is the same person from the same university every time saying that we can't open up the country again. This is a blatant conflict of interest at this point and nobody's noticing.

 

 This is the University that's creating the vaccine and this person needs to be investigated as to whether he has alternative motives for locking down the country and causing such financial devastation to the people by not allowing things to open up based on false information. 

 It's basic REAL data now that he should be aware of that now shows that the rising cases are in direct proportion to rising testing in many countries including Europe.

 

You claim there is a conflict of interest. You falsely claim he says the country can't open.

Where's your evidence? 

Your claims are BS and defamatory. More specifically you are disrespectful and insolent to the point of being offensive. Who are you to disparage this man? He is a respected associate professor of medicine with a notable background in vaccines and epidemiology. 

He has a track record in R&D.  You  insult a man who has earned world wide recognition for his contribution to public health. Is it any wonder why the Thai government wishes to be rid of low life arrogant foreigners?

First you state that the university is "creating the vaccine".

Did the voices in your head tell you that?  The university is using shared public knowledge to develop a potential vaccine. This does not mean that its vaccine will be viable. Even if it is, the university will apply existing shared knowledge, just as other universities are trying to develop vaccines. 

Your next imagined wrongdoing claim is that " he has alternative motives for locking down the country and causing such financial devastation to the people by not allowing things to open up based on false information"

What a crock of <deleted>. Chula is a publicly funded university. Any vaccine that originates there is going to have Government of Thailand ownership.

Now tell us, what are your academic and work qualifications to attack this man?

It was an unexpected finding and the takeaway isn't about dengue per se.  The authors emphasized the potential  “immunological cross-reactivity” between DENV serotypes (dengue antibodies) and SARS-CoV-2.   The benefit may have been from a prior dengue infection or a dengue vaccine. The takeaway is that other vaccines might be useful until such time as a  SARS Cov-2 specific vaccine was available. It was also suggested that the yellow fever  and zika virus vaccines might offer a similar benefit.

My interpretation: Vaccines can and do help. They can sometimes offer unexpected benefits.

More study is required.

15 hours ago, RJRS1301 said:

Have her religious beliefs been questioned in her previous and current roles? Have her beliefs a been cause for appeals in her judgements?
 

She has only been on the bench since 2017. It is a very short time prior to  being promoted. However,  even in that short period of time she does have a history of decisions that should give rise to concern. One case that stands out for me is her belief that an accused does not necessarily have to be given access to legal counsel.In this case, Barrett dissented when the appeals court  overturned a decision, saying that the accused had been denied his Sixth Amendment right to counsel. She rejected the application of a previous SCOTUS ’critical stage’ precedent. No one else has ever  questioned the SCOTUS  precedent. She has a few more gems to date.

No one comes out and questions a nominee's religious beliefs, because it is illegal to do so. However, they can be asked if such beliefs would influence their decisions. She replied that no they would not.

11 hours ago, genericptr said:

COVID does not kill 100% of the time, right? That means there is a numerical ceiling on the number of possible people it COULD kill. If this were not the case the entire global population would be wiped out in an end of times scenario.

 

I'm not trying to downplay this I'm just saying according to the data we reached a peak a few months ago and it's stabilizing since then.

 

 

You are trying to put this in a neat little box and are missing the direct effect of the infection: It sickens and weakens people. This virus causes an exponential growth in the numbers of infected. This means that as the  infection spreads, more and more people will become  ill. Some will have mild symptoms and others will become very ill and require hospital care.

What do you think happens when 5%-10% of a population books off sick? What happens when hospitals and ICUs pass their capacity points? medical personnel were falling ill, dying or burning out in  numbers that hadn't been seen in 80+ years. What do you think will happen when a single parent  falls ill? How about the  wage earner for the family? There is a tremendous social and economic cost to a wide scale illness. These costs are ignored by those who obsess about restrictions. 

There is no demonstrable long term immunity from the infection. More importantly, the  current studies show that a relatively small number of the population have the necessary antibodies to protect against the  infection. The corona virus family has  shown an ability to reinfect and to stay in a population. We have seen it in animal populations. If there was "herd" immunity, cattle and swine herds would not have the problems they have. Cats and dogs would not die. Today, we have specific corona virus vaccines to protect swine and cattle from their GI variant virus. Dogs and cats have their own vaccines.   We are doing what we are doing now to give  us time to  obtain a vaccine, and to slow the spread of the virus such that it does not  goes a massive  shut down of social and economic activity as  millions become ill at one time and then  continue getting ill.

Too many people at TVF do not understand that one can test negative for the infection and still be infected. It takes time for the infection to be detectable. This is why there must be multiple tests to establish the all clear.

The current data shows that negative a test can be followed by a positive test after a period of 5-13 days. The use of 14 days was to ensure a high confidence level in the test results.  10 days is pushing the limit, but recent data suggests it may now be  reliable (better testing methodology.)  

5 hours ago, farang51 said:

Thailand did not have any excess deaths this year; thus, your theory is wrong.

Article in New York Times that says the number of deaths was normal from January to April:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

 

Another media (I cannot link to that one) said in June that the number of deaths fell 8 percent in the period from October to June compared to the year before.

You are referencing an article in the NYT from April. Thailand has a 2+ month  time delay in releasing data. Your data would have most likely been out of date then and is certainly out of date now.  More importantly, the data from Thailand is not reliable. The NYT acknowledges this in its documentation notes. Have you even read the Bureau of Registration Administration data?   The reality in Asia is that only the data from Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore is reliable.

3 hours ago, simon43 said:

Do they?  I think many foreigners will remember how they have been treated in Thailand and will give the country a pass in favour of other countries....

Not relevant  now. If someone wishes to relocate to a SE Asia country, where exactly can they go? The  travel shutdowns apply to Vietnam. none of the whingers can afford Singapore, and besides which, they would have to purchase proper clothing. No one is lined up to go to Malaysia, Indonesia nor the Philippines right now. When the world travel corridors resume, people will  be coming back to Thailand in the  tens of millions.

1 hour ago, spacex said:

When you have nothing of substance to post, always a genius to make a personal attack.  Brilliant.

I take it you must fall into the 75+ and older category where you need to worry about having a 95% chance of surviving even if you get covid.  But of course you wouldn't as you are practicing social distancing, wearing a mask and staying locked up.  You'll be fine, keep reading the propoganda.

Harsh.  You are ripping into someone because he is prudent. The issue is not  surviving. It's the cost of surviving. Are you aware that the  disease does have side effects in the young and healthy?  And are you aware that those who are infected require  2-4-8 weeks or more to recover. Have you seen the lungs of some of the infected? What do you think happens when a single mother becomes ill?  Who is there to care for the family? In most countries there is no income replacement, or if there is, the funds are insufficient.  You try and manage a family  where  a parent does a triple shift of  caring for one's own family, working and taking care of elderly parents. You look at this from your own little world of me, myself and I.

1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

I assume you would use the same argument against allowing any Christion on the court, yes? 

My position applies to anyone who allows his/her/their personal religious belief to influence a decision that should be based upon legal merits. 

1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

As I understand separation, it is to protect the practice of religion, not restrict it. 

It goes beyond that. Yes, at its core, the intent is that the the government shall "make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof". However, the  SCOTUS  has already held that the intent of the  amendment was explained in Jefferson's letter of January 1, 1802. Of particular interest is the following;

Believing with you that religion is a matter which lies solely between man and his God, that he owes account to none other for his faith or his worship, that the legislative powers of government reach actions only, and not opinions, I contemplate with sovereign reverence that act of the whole American people which declared that their legislature should "make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof," thus building a wall of separation between church and State. Adhering to this expression of the supreme will of the nation in behalf of the rights of conscience, I shall see with sincere satisfaction the progress of those sentiments which tend to restore to man all his natural rights, convinced he has no natural right in opposition to his social duties.

Note the comment in respect to rights of conscience and natural rights. The issue of natural rights has been debated since it originated in ancient times. many people  hold that a fundamental natural right is the control of a woman over her reproductive organs.  The Supreme court nominee subscribes to a religious doctrine  which does not recognize this individual freedom and instead holds the position originating with Augustine who wrote the Catholic Church dogma of the 5th century that;

- Females are in most part responsible for the ejection from Eden due to the infection of sin because of the female's disobedience to her male master;

- Females must accept that they are subject to the rule and control by men;

A cornerstone of Catholic evangelical thought on abortion originates with the Augustine dogma. Wait until the nominee gets going on access to contraception,  or sex education.  You haven't seen anything. As I wrote, supporters of this religious zealot are in for a few surprises.