geriatrickid

11 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Arrived in the country Aug 13th [a month ago]... went into quarantine and proved 3 negative tests.

Now he has a positive, a month after arriving, yet he was infected abroad.

Safe trusted Thailand?

It was possible. One case out of thousands.

I have no idea if Thailand   has tested its  reagents or where they obtained the reagents used in the tests. It is possible that the reagents were bad. it is also possible that the tests were not administered properly. The swabs used must be of a specific type of polyester on a metal tip.  There may have been a defect in the swabs.

In the early phase of Covid19 the reagents were a source of considerable concern. Much of it was sourced from China.

23 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Really?????? You’ve turned a story about an absolute tool riding down the pavement and then assaulting someone into a bash against forgers for picking up a sea-cucumber ????  thats a bit ‘over apologist’ wouldn’t you think GK ?

Yes he was a tool and a lot worse. Keep in mind that as much as we dislike the driving on the sidewalk issue, it is a common practice here and is a "norm".  Without a complaint, the police cannot file an assault charge. They nailed the guy on a technicality and applied  a tough fine. 2000B for an impoverished driver is  painful. He may have to borrow from a loan shark.  The perSon i responded to was trying to compare a traffic code violation with an immigration law violation.  There may have been additional extenuating circumstances we are not aware of.

23 hours ago, jvs said:

Settle down will you,my angels?My heroes?

Where did you get that from?

Having a bad day?

The divers were stupid by their own admission.

The taxi driver is just a thug,he knew what he was doing and was hoping to get away with it.

On top of not going by the rules he also assaulted some one.

Done talking to you if you can not see the difference.

if we go back to the original post;

Don't rock the boat,mai pen rai!

Just a few galaxies away a sea cucumber was assaulted by an alien,deportation?

Who says the law is fair?

Win was only charged with having no taxi plate?What a bout a fine for riding on the sidewalk?I hope the victim will file for assault and hospital bills.

Just when will Thai people say'enough already?'

There is a glimmer of hope,

You have attempted to link an event in koh Phagnan to this event.  The two foreigners  are subject to deportation because they are alleged to have violated the immigration laws.  It is reported that they were on Tourist Visas, yet one promoted dives and the other ran a BBQ shop.  There are other  immigration issues also mentioned.  No one is being deported,  because a sea cucumber was assaulted. The two foreigners have not been charged under the Animal reserve or marine protection  laws.

You make the two  foreigners out to be   innocent people. After reading  some of the other alleged violations, I don't think so.

The estimate is consistent with the  GDP split indicating that domestic tourism  represents a large part of the  tourism sector.

It isn't as bad a hit as some make it out to be. If it gets rid of the low end fire trap places, then  good.I can think of a few over priced hotels  where I have stayed that i do hope go bankrupt.

Please be fair. Some of the criticism made against the Thai health personnel is unfounded.

14 hours ago, edwardandtubs said:

Yes the doctor is talking complete nonsense. There's no evidence at all that someone can go for 14 days after exposure and not test positive.

Rubbish. You are the one talking nonsense and should  publicly apologize to the doctor. He  was  right.

It is possible to show symptoms and have a detectable viral load after 14 days

The isolation periods are based upon the periods when the infection can be detected and/or when symptoms occur.

We use a 14 day period because it is the most economically viable cut off point.  Most people  can be diagnosed inn less than a week, but the number who would be missed is statistically significant, so a longer period is used.

Outside of China, the following is used as a guide;

-95% of diagnosed patients show symptoms such as fever within 5.7 days.

-97.5% of diagnosed patients show symptoms within 14.7 days

-2.5% of diagnosed patients fall into the 14-35 day period

it is quite possible that this fellow was the  one odd case that skews the  incubation period.

And on this thread we see example of misinformation.  

It is puzzling to see that no one objects.

On 9/10/2020 at 6:02 AM, jerolamo said:

Hey, you are talking about two guys who are not criminals at all and who have a real respectful life in Thailand, one is married also, and have a little business plan and then, has the law said in Thailand, employ almost 4 Thai people and have a Thai associate at 51%.

And why are they in jail ?

Because they touch a cucumber ! Ho Buddha, please help them !

So actually, some very dangerous people put some nice people in jail for that fact.

Do you defend people who push non criminals people in jail ?

In fact, now tell us what is your real idea there ?

What can't you understand that is so easy to understand ?

 

All the year in your country you open bar with gogo dancers and sale alcohol to some farang and Thai people and when they see two normal good guys they push them in jail ? What does it means ? What do you want to explain to the world ? The divers world wide community is looking at this story closer. And this kind of story increase a very bad feeling relationship between Thailand government and the world.

 

What i'm thinking right now is that there is some other corruption story under the jacket (again and again) because maybe the guys has a nice diving season club an other one want to recover to his own plan... because why ? because this year, your government is killing YOUR business plan. that is maybe why.

How many corruption story there is again ? Everybody know and see that, do you think no one see  and everybody is stupid ? The stupidity there is to not stop speaking non sens words when everybody see the problem and what ever: the morality as it is.

 

Put in jail divers because they did touch a cucumber... incredible. And not one or two days... no, in jail like criminals !

You don't know nothing about the sea life also, i'm sure at 100%, as all the time people who don't know nothing are speaking about a subject who is far from there own life and interest.

You are given to exaggeration and are overly dramatic.

Aside from your not understanding the applicable laws, you are offering a false backstory.

- It was reported several times that their TOURIST visas were cancelled.  They were working on TOURIST visas.  There were other compliance issues as well. Detention of people who are to be deported is  standard practice in many countries.

They are not in jail "Because they touch a cucumber". They are in jail because of  visa  non compliance. 

- You say they are nice people. Ok.  We do not know that. Maybe they are. You do not know them do you? 

- You  criticize those who are not upset with the comment "  you defend people who push non criminals people in jail". Ok, but what part of the visa violations did you not understand?  The issue of the marine act and protected species violations is beside the point. They have not been convicted of  crimes under those laws. They are held for visa non compliance.

- You are being overly dramatic with this comment; 

What do you want to explain to the world ? The divers world wide community is looking at this story closer. And this kind of story increase a very bad feeling relationship between Thailand government and the world.

News flash: NO ONE CARES.  The world  community  does not know of these two, nor does the world community have an interest. We are living in a world where migrants drown trying to reach Europe, where Covid19 is killing thousands every day, where people are trying to survive and you actually believe anyone cares about two very stupid men with the collective common sense of the sea cucumber they were playing with? This is a non event for  the world.

-Do you really think that the Thai economy will be damaged, or the locals will lose sleep over the loss of a marginal  small dive promoter and a BBQ  shop?  The loss of these two will have no impact on anyone other than those two and their immediate families. It is not as if they had viable ongoing operations is it?

On a human  level,  we all feel for them. it is an unfortunate outcome. We all hope that they will do well in the future.

23 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

World Bank has indicated international tourism accounts for 9.82% of Thailand GDP when people quote larger numbers they are referring to combined international tourism and domestic tourism figures 

https://qz.com/1724042/the-countries-most-reliant-on-tourism-for-gdp/

Indeed. A reasonable estimate and starting point. Thank you for the common sense and honesty.

(I was aware of the number as it has been discussed on the forum many times, usually as it relates to the incessant  threads on how important  western farangs are etc.)

18 minutes ago, androokery said:

Does it matter? Different sources use different methods to calculate this number. It’s somewhere in the ball park of 12-20 %. So in sheer MONEY it is a lot. I’ve always thought that it’s not a very interesting number. I mean, it’s the amount of money. It doesn’t reflect the proportion of the population depending on that particular industry. Some parts of a country’s GDP has an impact on a few very wealthy individuals. But tourism is a business where the money is spread around a LOT. Even if tourism accounts for 18% of GDP, I’m pretty sure the tourism industry supports more than 18% of the population. 

No it is not. You are confusing domestic and international tourism. Also lost in the discussion  is the reality that many foreigners with  long term  relationships such as a 2nd home or condo in Thailand are still paying upkeep and condo fees and that thais who travel overseas are staying in thailand and spending whatever they have in Thailand.

27 minutes ago, androokery said:

Finland didn’t welcome millions of tourists before, and while the weather is challenging there from Sep to Dec, which may discourage a lot of people, I thought I should at least tell you there was once a thriving business at Thomas Cook putting on flights from the UK, sending kids and their parents to Finland to meet Santa. Because, obviously, Santa lives in Finland.

Ok. Thomas Cook went bankrupt a year ago in September 2019, pre Covid 19.  The tourism market was in upheaval prior to Covid19.  Did you know that  2019 was one of the worst years for airline bankruptcies? There were 17  failures in 2019, and this was pre Covid19. It was a bloodbath and included failures for large and small carriers including;  Jet Airways, Avianca, Aigle Azur, XL Airways, Germania, Flybmi,  Adria. 

The point being that we keep seeing  comments in the forum on how bad tourism is in Thailand now, but some people forget that the industry was in trouble long before Covid19.  The pandemic may be the jolt the industry needs to knock some sense into it.

It was not a sustainable model, catering to  zero baht visitors and neglecting the high value tourists; emphasizing visitor numbers over spend value per visitor.  The Thai tourism sector will recover just has it has done previously.  All this doom and gloom ignores the history of Thailand. There were times when the  civil unrest made Thailand a no go destination for a year or more. The long timers will  remind people of the impact of the Asian financial crisis and the AIDS epidemic that destroyed Thai tourism.  The country survived and bounced back from that. It will do so  with  the pandemic. Thailand has gone from the 1960's sex tourism destination to  a hotspot go to country in just  60 years. A year of  turmoil will not change that.

14 minutes ago, Alex80 said:

Actually Thailand is losing 20% of GDP (probably more) with zero benefits and zero support to those who needs it.

Investing 10% of GDP to increase health care system while opening again to tourism is a long lasting benefit. Also, total closoure is something that will hit the country for many years, even after covid will be gone.

20% really.

Please show us where the "20% of GDP (probably more)" is supported.

Inventing a value isn't factual.

16 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Just read how Finland has decided to do it.

 

If you're from a country with less than (or exactly) 25 cases per 100,000 people within last two weeks, can enter without testing.

If you're from a country with more than 25 cases per 100,000 people within last two weeks, can enter if you have a negative test result (didn't say how recent but I suppose a few days).

 

No quarantines.

 

Pretty straight forward and something Thailand should consider.

Ok, but you are misleading people.  You are giving the impression that Finland changed its rules and has opened its borders.  It has not.

Finland is  still  classifying countries as subject to Restriction 1 or 2 and maintains some  specific exclusions for non essential workers. Most of the world is excluded. Yes, people from New Zealand, Thailand,  the Baltic states, and the UK can enter. The number of such visitors has historically been low. The USa  and most of western Europe is excluded.

It is not a fair comparison.  Thailand is a much larger country with a significantly larger number of visitors. It is easier to manage the small numbers in Finland than it is in Thailand. Foreign tourism in Finland from September until December is hardly a big thing.

22 minutes ago, Moon6966 said:

If they keep borders closed what do they expect 

1st move to recovery is open border a let them in 

Without mad querntine prices a all that 

A then you have a start if you don't open sure 

You will never get nowhere. Thailand will return to be a fishing village 

It makes it easier for you if you blame the administration for acting responsibly. Ok.

Maybe you  are right. Let's see.  Did you do the  economic projection?

In Thailand;

What is the cost  of care for a Covid19 patient.

What is the expected  number of infected Thais if your strategy is followed?

What will be the cost to the Thai economy when  manufacturing and other key  businessess are shut down because of  workplace infections?

What is the  cost to  Thailand's people when they can not access critical care because hospitals cannot continue on an as is basis because of a highly infectious disease?

There are economic and social costs to opening the  Thai economy to your  sacred foreign visitors. Did you calculate them?

If you have not, it is irresponsible to demand the  Thai government change its policy. You want them to  to effect a policy that will do more damage to the economy than is the case. The current position takes the hit due to the loss of foreign visitors. Your position would  allow a widespread massive economic hit that could not be managed or contained.  Do the math.

if your position is economically  viable, I am all for it. We all are.   Show us the numbers.

Interesting how quiet the trump contingent of TVF are.

Crickets.

If a Democrat POTUS had said these things we would be treated to multiple  conspiracy claims by now. Alex Jones would be frothing at the mouth, Fox & Friends would be beside itself screaming of a  deep state plot, Sean Hannity would be having conniptions and Rush Limbaugh would have lost control of his bladder due to his rage.

Where are the simpletons of TVF and their faux anger, their indignation?  Surely, they have read Russian security agency sourced explanations or false stories to distract by now and should be able to  blame someone for this?

On 9/7/2020 at 8:46 PM, Geoffggi said:

Maybe not, a friend of mine went to Koh Chang and said many Thai's were sharing rooms with 6-8 people in each room ..!!

Adult film production?

1 hour ago, jvs said:

Don't rock the boat,mai pen rai!

Just a few galaxies away a sea cucumber was assaulted by an alien,deportation?

Who says the law is fair?

Win was only charged with having no taxi plate?What a bout a fine for riding on the sidewalk?I hope the victim will file for assault and hospital bills.

Just when will Thai people say'enough already?'

There is a glimmer of hope,

2000 baht is a steep  fine for an impoverished bike taxi. How much do you think he clears in a day? After he pays his expenses, what does he make? 300B profit at best? That's a couple days for the guy and might be the difference between eating and paying rent.  He may be hit with other  charges as well. this is just the start.  And here you see they got him on the technicality of his license plate.  Easier to convict.  He is Thai and cannot be asked to leave the country.

And then we have your angels who were tormenting sea animals for a photo-op. They were nicked on a technicality too.

If they had been sterling citizens and desirable members of the community, the issue  could have been managed. Instead they seem to have been caught with incorrect visas and a number of other issues. It is much easier to say that the Thais are mean and tough then it is to accept that your heroes were not the ideal  business operators for Thailand.  Thailand does not need foreigners like them. They bring nothing of economic value that cannot already found in the country.

On 9/9/2020 at 2:09 AM, RichardColeman said:

Sorry, but if the guy feeds them then he should take legal responsibility for every single person they bite , along with all their medical bills. 

It is unlikely that socialized, healthy dogs will bite.

Typically, dogs bite when frightened, or sick or stressed. Humans have a bad habit of tormenting animals and then wondering why the animals react.

The benefit of maintaining  a local neutered and vaccinated dog population in areas where there are feral  dog populations is that the socialized  groups keep the feral dogs out and prevent an increase in the feral dog population  for the  area.

17 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Thats the good news.

Here's the bad news. 

If Biden wins the popular vote by less than 3 percent he easily loses though 2 is much better odds than 2.

4 percent and its about 50 50.

At 5 percent he almost definitely wins.

What kind of democracy it where you need to win by 5 percent to be sure of winning?

Parliamentary, equitable and functioning.

It ensures  a fair mandate and eliminates regional dominance because of marginal population differences.

Consider the following scenarios in the UK or Canada;

Seat 1:  Party A 50 votes  Party B 150 votes 

Seat 2: Party A  101 Votes  Party B 99 Votes

Seat 3; Party A 105 votes   Party B 95 votes

Seat 4: Party A 110 votes  Party B 90 votes

Seat 5 : Party A 99 votes   Party B 101 votes

Party A wins  3 of 5 seats but only has 465 Votes and forms the government

Party B wins 2 of 5 seats but has a popular majority at 535 votes

One seat district favoured one political party. Does this mean that the other seats  must all be  subject to the whims of that  district? the US electoral college format is a parliamentary approach but on a larger scale where the   states are one district.

I used to   despise the method, but it works and is fair when it comes to  taking into account regions. Without the US format,  the election result would always be dominated by the large population states and smaller states would lose their voice.

The US systems forces the party that wins to have a regionally diverse base of support.

Normal practice to suspend new  dosing. The SOP is to verify if the batch was compromised, and if the patient had an existing condition that was missed at screening. In addition, to the review of the adverse reaction response. I hope the courageous volunteer recovers.

I wouldn't rule out sabotage either. There are foreign entities who do not wish to see a "western" vaccine succeed particularly one that will be available to the world at low cost and with no strings attached.

40 minutes ago, Matzzon said:

And you actually believe numbers like this. ????????????

Yes I can accept the values provided as a good indication. The values that were used to determine cost are standardized and are derived from the value per statistical life (VSL) and relative severity/injury estimates used by the US Government.

As I wrote, even if you wish to  cut the values in 1/2 or 3/4, one is still left with several billion dollars.

Do you have an alternative cost per infected person?

35 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

this bus is great for going to Pattaya from Hua Hin.

 

one draw back the Hua Hin bus terminal for this company is very far North of Hua Hin. 

 

I'd use the ferry for the pattaya-Hua Hin trip. Faster, more comfortable and it is after all a sea cruise.

Watching the reaction of people on a choppy day is worth the  cost of the ticket.

And yes I know the ferry  service is suspended, but it will be back.

14 hours ago, Tropicalevo said:

I think that is a bit unfair for Bangkok Taxis. Sure, some take the pliss and try it on. Just go to the next cab.

Now Samui, Phuket etc - a totally different ballgame. (27 years in Thailand)

Sometimes we don't have that option. Try that late at night or when it is raining.