geriatrickid

The USA has now provided a  documented  case study of the cost of Covid19 when a jurisdiction is "open".

The takeaway is that there is a significant social and economic cost that attaches to not having social distancing measures in effect. It is a cost that is never ever acknowledged  by those who are  most vocal in their criticism of social distancing and mask wear standards.

The report is a searing indictment of the  Americans who attended the Sturgis, South Dakota  motorcycle rally. (The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally was held over a 10-day period from August 7 through August 16, 2020, with pre-Rally events beginning on August 3. Estimated attendance was 462,182)

The participants for the most part refused to social distance and to wear masks. Although some of the participants are starting to die, the underlying issues are the spin off infections and the direct cost of those infections.   The event has resulted in a reliably calculated  263,708 additional Covid 19 cases.  Adding the number of new cases estimated by synthetic control (3.6 per 1,000 population, scaled by the South Dakota population of approximately 858,000) brings the total number of cases to 266,796 or 19 percent of 1.4 million new cases of COVID-19 in the United States between August 2nd 2020 and September 2nd 2020. 

If you  look at the reported cases in the USA  during this period, you will observe a surge in infections during the Sturgis rally period.  Nice coincidence as they say. 

The report states that If we conservatively assume that all of these cases were non-fatal, then these cases represent a cost of over $12.2 billion, based on the statistical cost of a COVID-19 case of $46,000 estimated by Kniesner and Sullivan (2020). 

There you have it:  documented estimate of the cost of selfishness of a group of Americans who can't be bothered about social responsibility.  And for those who will question the estimation model. it is the same  modeling method employed by the contrarians darling, Sweden, except this study uses a more conservative approach.  Also of interest is the direct cost of $46,000 per infected person in the USA.    Even if one wishes to  approach the direct cost and  say that many of these people will have assumed the costs themselves, the fact remains that these infected people returned to their home states where they spread the disease.  Even if one cuts the estimates in half or by 3/4 it is still an immense financial burden.

I anticipate that the report will be attacked as a left wing plot. Note that the report is a joint effort with documentation undertaken by the Center for Health Economics & Policy Studies at San Diego State University and validated by the IZA Institute of Labor Economics in Bonn Germany.  Both are reputable institutions. There will be some who won't read the report, but will instead attack the authors claiming it is a "left wing radical" plot. Unfortunately for these people, the University of San Diego is not known as a hot bed of liberalism and grant funding for the  study comes from the Troesh Family Foundation and the Charles Koch Foundation. The Koch Family are known as very conservative and right wing. In plain language, they don't fund "liberals".   The IZA is an independent economic research institute that conducts research in labor economics and offers evidence-based policy advice on labor market issues.  It is supported by the Deutsche Post Foundation, which again is not a gaggle of "commies".

Reference:  This is an incredible and frightening read.  

The initial report has been  issued as a working paper: IZA DP No. 13670 The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19 SEPTEMBER 2020 Dhaval Dave Bentley University, IZA, NBER and CHEPS Andrew I. Friedson University of Colorado Denver and CHEPS Drew McNichols CHEPS, University of San Diego-California and San Diego State University

https://cheps.sdsu.edu/docs/Contagion_Externality_Sturgis_Motorcycle_Rally_9-5-20_Dave_et_al.pdf?_ga=2.65399854.1222451202.1599621898-541372901.1599621898

Read the document. Even if you disagree with the  numbers of infected; the  references, and the data  is an eye opener.

IMO, one of the better social benefit programs available in Thailand.

Not mentioned is the minibus transfer from the bus terminal in Hua Hin or Pattaya. You get packed on to a mini bus and take your chances. It's worse for Hua Hin because you are so far out.  Also not mentioned is push to purchase online where they charge an additional "booking" fee. the 294 baht fare is regulated. All the extra charges are not.

7 hours ago, Patjqm said:

39000usd when put on a ventilator! And now it appears it can be a bad threathment...

And you joined up just to share this. 

Thanks. Your knowledge will save the world.

The issue with the dj is a tad more complicated than that. Thailand  is now in damage control because  Mr. dj has suggested that there is a Covid19 reservoir in Thailand.

18 hours ago, Sharp said:

Yeah 'highly' contagious and deadly 

Hilarious post for its misapplication.  The  disease is  very contagious. The information you have posted does not disprove this.  The  physicians, nurses and  orderlies are not bundled up in PPE because they have  a fetish.

Know what else is contagious? Ignorance and lies when unchallenged. We all know that the greatest risk is not death. 

Did you even read the paper; Predicted COVID-19 fatality rates based on age, sex, comorbidities, and health system capacity Authors;  Selene Ghisolfi, Ingvild Ingvild Almas, Justin Sandefur, Tillman von Carnap,  Jesse Heitner, Tessa Bold?  I don't think the authors  would appreciate having their work taken out of context.

Why keep harping on fatalities when it has been said repeatedly, over and over and over and over and over, as in multiple times, as in many times, It is about;

1. The physical damage and the relationship with NEW chronic health care conditions;

2. The impact upon the delivery of health care and;

3. The impact that a highly infectious disease has upon a society and the   cost of the damage caused by the  infections.

had you read the   original document you would see that; 

- Data was from the early months of the pandemic. The information is stale dated, and the much larger data pool must be used.

- This will present a problem for those who claim this shows that the pandemic is a hoax, and who insist that it is promoted by   Bill Gates and others who want to nano chip the world.

Know why?

Sandefur acknowledges external support to the Center for Global Development from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation for global health research.   ????

If you believe that the  disease not infectious and does not present a problem, please  volunteer at a facility caring for the infected. You can replace the workers who have become ill or died. With your super immune system you  have no worries and won't need PPE.

This has me completely stumped. House  brand for DEC and looks like the AM 100 series.  Never been a fan of Rock Shox  (I  prefer manitou and I think they use manitou's for the higher end  version of this model)

I just can't get my head around the 29" wheels. I know most of DEC's inventory is 27.5. and 29" is where the mainstream is going.  I am a dinosaur though, as I ride 26" (and won't abandon hard tail for full suspension.)    29" is promoted as faster  and more stable, but meh.   And sorry for going off on a tangent. I mention the size in case you ever need to replace components/parts. 27.5 is the universal size now. 29" may present some option limitations, and of course, very few options left for the change resistant 26 inchers like me clinging to the glory days of the 80"s and 90's. All that said, looks lovely.  

7 hours ago, Purdey said:

Interesting concept. Several yards apart and the guy is holding a knife and... He is still several yards away with a knife.

No doubt if he was white he would be told to drop the knife several times, not shot in the back without any weapon in his hand.

Did you hear any video  that  indicates that the police did not instruct the  accused to stop?

The attempt to stop the accused before he was shot is evident on the recordings.

I am not going to  judge Blake or the police guilty of anything until the factual evidence comes out in open court. 

making unsubstantiated  claims of injustice does not help anyone.

38 minutes ago, scammed said:

statistics indicate regions that were hit hard dont get a 2nd wave, i.e herd immunity is achieved at the cost of the weak

Absolute rubbish. You do not understand the concept of "waves". Many countries have not yet finished their first wave.

Canada is one country which comes to mind. It is now experiencing a relatively large explosion of cases. The golden boy of success, British Columbia is  in crisis. Quebec and Ontario which had managed to get the disease under control are experiencing large outbreaks.  They are not into their second wave. On the contrary, what we are seeing is the impact of factors;

- Schools have reopened and the  cases counts are increasing.

-  The  20-30 age demographic has been non compliant with  house parties,  karaoke events, refusal to self quarantine when identified as at risk etc.

If a second wave comes, we will know it, because it will most likely be more severe and it will occur when populations are packed in close conditions inside buildings.

2 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I'm still pushing my looney conspiracy theory that this virus came to Thailand in Nov/Dec and finished up about Mar/Apr based on the unusually high numbers of viral pneumonia deaths being reported during that time which I think got to about 3700 before they stopped publishing the figures.Hence I believe it's possible that Thailand has already reached immunity.My theory would also explain why Thailand did so well with the numbers because by time they developed testing capability the pandemic was pretty much finished here.

And yet  there is no supporting  evidence in the form of data,  studies or literature reviews to support your position. 

perhaps you are a genius, and the world does not know about you. You possess an inherent brilliance such that the people who have spent decades  studying infectious diseases, viruses and public health know nothing when compared to you.

I recommend that you present your findings to the world. You can save the world.

13 minutes ago, scammed said:

yes that is exactly what statistics so far is telling us

No that is not what the  "statistics" show.

There is no need for fanciful explanations when the data trends reflect what has been know since the start of the pandemic.

Populations which are older have the higher risk of infection.

Another idiotic claim of conspiracy. This time, Bill Gates is bad because he does not get enough negative  media attention.

 Bill Gates is bad because he funded an organization which fact checks.

All part of the ongoing attempt to tell us that Vaccines are bad and that Bill Gates has a sinister plot  to microchip us and turn us into robot zombies.

Know what the biggest joke here is? The lack of disclosure.  This isn't a factual article, nor an academic paper.  It is an OPINION, published as CRITICISM by one person who freelances and who has a track record of promoting his own political agenda. 

14 hours ago, petermik said:

60 flights in per day bringing in 7,000 visitors....sorry I,m saying it,s BS

happy to be proved wrong however.

What if you are proven correct?  ????     

I did a quick count of the  domestic flight arrivals shown as arrived (past 24 hours) - 36 flights.  How hard is it to look at the flight  arrival history? Took me all of 2 minutes.

Almost all are AB 320/321/319/B737-8/9 equipment.

These hold 186-189 passengers on average

If the  aircraft are coming in fully loaded;  36 X 189 =  Potential 6900 passengers

Highly unlikely the  loads are better than 60-80%. At the very best, I expect 4,000 to 5800 pax on a peak service day.

Anyone who  would  challenge you, would be a fool, because you sir, knew it in milliseconds.

4 minutes ago, Pottinger said:

....and keyboard warriors who take it upon themselves to justify the laws of countries not their own.

What part of respecting the local laws do you object to?  If you cannot be a law abiding foreigner in thailand why enter Thailand?

You know darn well that these two people are of questionable position.

No one will miss the BBQ shop and the  disappearance of a dive operator who  cannot follow the code that the other responsible dive operators follow  is no loss either. Most of the dive shop people try very hard to be good responsible operations. Along comes  this guy and  destroys their reputations.

11 minutes ago, CorpusChristie said:

What were their immigration violations ?

It' s all over the  news reports;

-Simonetti did not report his change in residence.

-Otts' wife was providing lodging for a  foreigner but had not reported her activity. Whether she was reporting her activity as a lodging facility was not pursued. Also not addressed is what the foreigner was doing with Ott. 

My takeaway is that the  immigration authorities saw enough smoke that they did not need to wait for the fire to act.

14 minutes ago, Phuketshrew said:

... and that's exactly why they have been deported. Some Thai's will profit quite well out of this.

Suggest you have a look at the  BBQ restaurant and the dive shop.  IMO, nothing of value. In any case, each has the convenience of a Thai spouse/domestic partners, so  assets won't be lost right away.

9 hours ago, torturedsole said:

That old chestnut is getting boring now.

 

Five UK Nightingale hospitals fitted out at great expense to the UK taxpayer then mothballed within two months due to complete and utter lack of demand.   

You are complaining because the efforts to slow the spread of infection worked. Those hospitals  would have been filled to capacity had the UK not suspended multiple activities at the time. As you may recall, there was resistance and dithering to the  suspension.

Your argument is preposterous.

3 hours ago, Seik said:

BS. The strains which cause warts are different ones from the ones causing cancers. Most often the former get cleared by the immune system (the disease itself, not just the warts).

"What do you think happens when 10% of a city's population is ill at the same time?" 
 

Nothing. For the majority of the people who do get ill from Covid (have symptoms), there is literally nothing that needs to be done medically. There are only a very small percentage of cases which are critical and require hospitalization. So an overrun of the medical facilities is unlikely with some organization.

My apologies for not providing a more detailed and specific explanation.

- Yes, indeed the types of HPV that cause warts are different from the types that cause cancer.

However, your position ignores the common knowledge that prolonged HPV infection increases the risk of developing malignant transformation.  Your view would mean that the virus remains unchanged. However, we know that the virus that  results in condyloma acuminata can change/mutate to become oncogenic. This is nothing unique either. Viruses are constantly changing. The initial  manifestation of the wart can visibly clear, but the virus itself can remain and transform over time.  The point being that a person can be infected with  anogenital warts, see them clear, and then  find out he/she has  a deadly cancer.

 Need a cititation? Try this;  Costa-Silva M, Fernandes I, Rodrigues AG, Lisboa C. Anogenital warts in pediatric population. An Bras Dermatol. 2017 Sep-Oct;92(5):675-681.

- We also know that patients infected with strains 6 and 11, the variants most likely to result in a display of condyloma acuminata,  are also most  likely to be at risk of a  more deadly oncogenic strain of HPV.  It is the same principle that people  with chlamydia will most likely have a concommitant STI. It doesn't mean that everyone will have that condition, nor does it mean that everyone with genital warts is going to  develop cancer, but it is significant enough relationship to warrant a specific treatment approach to screen for the cancer.   

 Need more citations?

Nordenvall C, Chang ET, Adami H-O, Weimin Y. Cancer risk among patients with condylomata acuminata. Int J Cancer 2006; 119(4): 888–893. doi: 10.1002/ijc.21892 [PubMed] [Google Scholar]

Friis S, Kjaer SK, Frisch M, Mellemkjar L, Olsen JH. Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, anogenital cancer, and other cancer types in women after hospitalization for condylomata acuminata. J Infect Dis 1997; 175(4): 743–748.

I trust this addresses your concern and thank you for the opportunity to discuss the issue further.

In respect to your claim that nothing happens when a large part of the population becomes ill, I draw your attention to the fact that  10-20% of the infected will require  hospitalization. Also, the infected people, as diagnosed as such, will need to self isolate.

Did you not see what happened at the food production facilities when the workers became ill? There were food shortages and disruptions of  supply chains in many countries.  What do you think happens if the income earner in a family becomes ill and must take time off to recover? Your position requires that none of the infected   have  physical conditions that interfere with their  activities. As we saw in many countries, hospitals came close to collapse  as medical service providers died or became ill. There is a backlog of healthcare now because  health providers will not  provide many types of services because of the risk.

You  dismiss the reality with the  flip of the wrist saying it can be   solved by 'organization".  That's not how it works in the real world.  In  your perfect world we would not have super spreaders or people intentionally infecting others, and we would have people  being respectful of others.