pattayasnowman

"I didn't 'stop and think' just the qualification we need for a President with their finger on the worlds largest Nuclear arsenal

"OH Sh***t I didn't 'stop and think"

We tend not to think about diagnostic test appropriately, and unfortunately too few doctors do too.

We are conditioned to think that a positive result means you have the disease and negative we don't.

A test that claims to be 99% accurate we assume that the chances are 99% certain we have the disease if we have a positive result.

But this is not necessarily the case

So what does a diagnostic test really mean.

Firstly No form of testing is perfect.

Every test can introduce both false positives (testing positive when you are really negative) and false negatives (testing negative when you are really positive).

So you what you want to know about a test is - if I test positive( +ve) what is the likely hood I have the disease or what is called

Positive predictive value (PPV) that is probability of being +ve when you test +ve

The PPV dependent on three variables

sensitivity ,specificity and prevalence,

Sensitivity = proportion of people testing +ve who have the disease

Specificity = proportion of people testing -ve who don't have the disease

Prevalence is the proportion of the population that has the disease (Say 1 in a 1000 or 0.1%)

The Prevalence is normally determined by some other method that is - other then the test in question.

For example Breast Cancer by Physical examination, Mammograms etc


So Suppose we have a test, which has a sensitivity of (99.9%) 0.999 and a specificity of (99..6%) 0.996

The PPV as a function of the prevalence rate for the subpopulation to which the testee belongs is given below.

prevalence rate 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% 10.0%

PPV 20% 43% 56% 72% 84% 93% 97%

So if take a test for a disease that claims to be 99.9% "accurate' and the prevalence for that disease in the area that you live is 0.1%(1 in 1000) the test will be wrong 80% of the time

For a fuller explanation : http://uhavax.hartford.edu/bugl/treat.htm

You might also want to watch

The Bayes Theorem: What Are the Odds?

Will we never learn

BEFORE

I got my own tests from a friend that sells test kits for all manner of things (mostly illegal drug test kits). I freaked out when someone told me "remember that girl who..." and then "she died a couple of months ago from liver failure" (liver problem stories are often the front here for any manner of other things that might otherwise embarrass the family). I did my first test immediately, which is only a finger prick much like a diabetic test, on a test strip, and takes less than a minute. 3 months later I did it again to check it was the same negative result, as I was told that it can take time for symptoms to be measurable. I still keep some tests in the refrigerator, although they may be past their sell by date by now.

Anyhow, with all the googling I did, it seems if you're black and female, you can get HIV just by looking at it from a nearby street, and Caucasians, especially male in straight sex with no skin lesions are in the least likely category, with Asians being somewhere in between. It is a real threat, but an unlikely one.

Liver failure is not listed by the CDC as an AIDS defining disease. However, it is a growing cause of death by persons taking the combination of highly toxic drugs for the "suppression" of HIV .

And if HIV "prefers' to infect Homosexuals Males , African Americans Hemophiliacs and a large proportion of Sub Saharan Africa it is the first infectious disease that

" thinks" and chooses whom to infect

The above is completely incorrect. You confuse application for mass screening with individual testing and even there, your math is completely off. (Screening 1,000 people among whom 1% are HIV positive will yield on average 11 positive results, 9 of them genuinely with HIV and 2 false positives. So hardly "75% wrong". And the 2 false positives will of course be identified through routine confirmatory testing.) (The HIV prevalence among people who come in for testing is, of course, higher than that of the general population, since people come in to be tested for a reason.

A 99.6% sensitivity means that if an individual tested is HIV positive (and has formed antibodies, i.e. not in early stages of infection), there is only a 0.4% chance of a false negative result.

Sensitivity tells you nothing about false positives. That comes from the specificity rate. Varies according to the test kit in use, but usually between 99.1 - 99.9%, meaning that among people who test positive, it will be a false positive in under 1 percent of cases.

Even those small error margins do not apply to the final individual result though because there are fails safes. Blood samples testing positive on the rapid test are always then re-tested using Elisa/Western Blot. Whatever it may show in dogs, the Western Blot is >98% specific for HIV in humans, The chance of a false positive on both the rapid test and the Elisa or Western Blot is infintesimal....something like 1 in 10,000. This is BTW the reason results are given hours later or the next day - to allow time for confirmation testing first if the rapid test is positive. The rapid test itself gives results in just minutes.

Some clinics, especially those run by the Thai Red Cross, also do batch NAT testing in all blood samples used for rapid testing. This tests for the actual virus (as opposed to antibodies) and is extremely effective in picking up false negatives. For anyone concerned about a possible recent infection it pays to have the rapid test done in a facility which does this.

Thank you for pointing out that I should have used 'Specificity' not 'Sensitivity' .

However, you completely misunderstand the interpretation of a screening test as do most health professionals

https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Papers/health_stats.pdf

What if you were found to have a positive HIV antibody test? What is your chance of being truly HIV infected ?

If the Specificity of the test is 99.6%

Firstly you cannot begin to answer this question without knowing the “prevalency” of the disease or condition

HIV “prevalency” is determined is by the tests kits themselves. A completely circular methodology.

With a prevalency of 1% and a Specificity of 99.6% the test would be wrong 23 % of the time

However with a prevalency of (0.1%) 1/1000 persons are HIV infected.and specificity of 99.6% the test will be wrong 75% of the time

Moreover if you are arguably somewhat removed from the risk groups that dominate the statistics to say 1/2000 then the test would be wrong 89% of the time,in other words, almost all of the time.

99.6% is the probability that if you have the disease then you test positive, not the probability that if you test positive then you have the disease.

The value of a Rapid HIV test as with all HIV test is next to worthless

Withe a Sensitivity of 99.6% or less and a prevalence rate of 1% for Thailand

the probability that you actually have HIV is 77% or in otherwords a test would be wrong 23% of the time

However it is worst then this.. There is no method to determine the prevalence of HIV other then using a HIV test kit - whether Western Blot or Elisa.

This was done using selecting assumed low risk test groups. Typically young Army recruits from low risk backgrounds.

So the accuracy of a HIV test Kit is based on the samples using a HIV test kit

There is no "Gold Standard" no independent method to determine HIV "infection" other then with a Test Kit

How the prevalence rate of 1% for Thailand was determined is unclear, But the average for the rest of the world is much less approx 0.1% (excluding Sub Saharan Africa)

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2155rank.html

With a prevalence rate of 0.1% the HIV test is "wrong" 75% of the time

To further illustrate how worthless these test are

A 1990 University of California tested 144 Dogs with a standard Western Blot test kits 77 0r 50% tested +ve

http://www.omsj.org/wp-content/uploads/Dogs-Test-Positive.pdf

Dogs don't contract HIV or develop AIDS

Just the beginning

OH My - what a surprise

The paypal deposit was shown on my K-Bank statement.

Just checked my online statements and they did not appear on mine. So it seems kasikorn is not consistent in this matter

As to getting a K-Web Shopping Card - I cannot remember if this is a necessary step , but if you don't have one and PapyPal sent you the deposits then it obviously is not necessary. However getting one is worthwhile an very useful

"Mixed-member proportional electoral system" Too complex for the average voter (including me) I read this several times and still don't get it

As to 123 selected senators out of 200 - hardly democratic

My friend had exactly the same problem. The reason is that kasikorn do not display these small paypal deposits your internet banking statement.

What does happen, as in my case, the two small paypal deposits are notified to you by a text message to your phone by kasikorn

Problem that my friend has ,and still has, is that paypal will not resend these payments to your account. So if you missed them your buggered.

You need to start over again and open a new Thai Paypal account

W

Accept the fact they are doing their job during heightened security.

Thats exactly how ' they' want you to think.

Create a state of fear , introduce security Measures "for your safety' that erodes your civil rights and privacy.

Give up your liberty for freedom

This modus operandi has been working fine in the US and throughout the world for years .

Turn off the loudspeakers duh

Shes a pathological liar (as is her husband) numerous times they have bared faced lied to the public. Yet here she is and could be the next President of the USA

Reminiscent of Nixon being forced to turn over his White House Tapes

I seem to recall somewhere in my past being taught that the most important piece of evidence in any criminal investigation is likely to be MOTIVE - i.e. who stands to gain the most from these atrocities?

I couldn't possibly comment, but will merely leave our trusted readers to join up the dots..............

Goodbye General Elections - Hello again Martial Law , curfews and Draconian regulations

and "Round up the usual suspects."

This is where those paranoid ideas lead to

To keep things in perspective should not forget the Firebombing of Tokyo and Dresden that had occurred earlier in 1945

Firebombing of Tokyo on the night of 9–10 March 1945
80,000 and 130,000 Japanese civilians were killed in the worst single firestorm in recorded history.

On the evening of February 13, 1945, a series of Allied firebombing raids begins against the German city of Dresden, and killing as many as 135,000 people. It was the single most destructive bombing of the war—including Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Well by looking at the last 200 years you are getting a bit better perspective. But if you look at the last 10K years since the Earth began its present inter glacial period. The Earths temperature has been in a sidewards pattern., With 4 peaks in temperature and 4 Lows .

In the past 2000 years , according to the ice core samples, global temperatures have been declining to the bottom of the range. It is only in the 20th century that temperatures have begun to rise. This rise is consistent with the overall pattern for the past 10,000 years. It is a wild assumption, thats is politically motivated, to associate this small rise in temperature is man made let alone due to CO2 emissions.

Further more, the periods of warming throughout this 10K period has been largely beneficial to the human population. I think most would agree that Having Grape Vines along the Thames is preferable to skating on the bloody thing.

Would be to historians. So a bit of news mixed with history.

Don't belittle these guys. They were incredibly brave and pulled off an astonishing piece of flying. On a moonless night they flew at a height of approx 100ft to avoid German radar to their targets.

Of the nineteen Lancasters that took part in the attacks with 133 crew, eight planes were lost with the loss of 56 men; three of these men survived to become prisoners-of-war. Thats a 40% !!

I wonder how many of us would be prepared to step up to the plate with those odds

Should never forget the sacrifice these guys (and many others) made so we, today, can sit in our condos having a beer and watch the game

The great global warming (now climate change ) swindle is finally being exposed . Over the past 15 years there has been no significant rise in global temperatures despite continues increases in atmospheric CO2.

But still these uninformed Politicians push a debunked theory for Political expediency and to line the pockets of their corporate sponsors

Is there any basis to the rumor going around that if you fail the test you go straight to jail for 30 days ?

I have to say that Nefertiti was pretty hot!

Since the cause of the SU-GPB oxygen system fire was not actually determined, it was probably because one or both of the crew was smoking in the cockpit, IMHO. It is well known that free oxygen and a source of hydrocarbons, such as that used to lubricate the cockpit window crank, is an extremely flammable condition (this possibility was considered in the final report, below).

It's a bit overdone and inclusive but here is the SU-GPB Final Report for those with severe insomnia.

Occam's razor should be applied liberally to your MH 370 hypothesis. BTW, I wonder if either of the flight deck crew smoked.

Yes window grease was considered and dismissed - from the final report SU-GPB

"It was found that at the flash points of the approved greases were at least 200°F above the highest theoretical temperature for this compartment. Further, the flash point was not affected by oxygen concentration"

For a Very plausible explanation for the MH370 disappearance until if or when the aircraft and black boxes are found Details are here : http://www.iasa-intl.com/folders/mh370/An_MH370_Analysis-of-Likelihoods.htm

But to summarize it is based on two previous incidents :

1.A Destructive B777 oxygen-initiated cockpit fire accident at the departure gate at Cairo on 29 July 2011. (see attached photo)

2 The Helios 737 ghost-flight from Cyprus to Athens. B737 14 August 2005 MH370 suffered an airborne depressurization that could of been caused by the sort of oxy-blowtorch rupture of a pressurized hull - like the holing that was seen on SU-GBP This would be a self extinguishing fire lasting less then a minute once the Hull is breached but causing extensive damage to the flight-deck including circuit breakers accounting for the lost of VHF and the transponder. But apparently not the ACARS . The origination of the fire in the case of SU-GBP was an electrical short circuit in the stiffening wire of the FO Low pressure oxygen supply hose. In the case of MH370 This may have occurred if the Capt was about to leave the Flight Deck . The FO is required to put on the emergency Oxygen Mask. The FO would have been totally incapacitated by this. The Capt also would be in pretty bad shape both probable suffering sever lung searing and going into hypoxia due to the sudden decompression. The Capt or the surviving officer had probably enough time to instinctively perform a turn back and hearing the decompression alarms push the Yoke forward to descend. The descent to 10000ft would not have been completed due to the PF passing out due to hypoxia. On releasing the Yoke and the aircraft not being re-trimmed would climb back to its previous cruising altitude. Apparently the B777 can fly level wings for hrs even when not in Auto Pilot. So the aircraft now flew on as a ghost plane, all the passengers having peacefully succumbed hypoxia and an asphyxia death, until fuel depletion and crashing into the Southern Indian Ocean. The observed course changes are explained by the aircraft entering storm cells in the Malacca Straits and the southern Andaman Sea and being "spat out" in a new heading - courtesy of the B777 highly redundant and unique Active Flight Control System. After the Cairo SU-GBP incident the FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive for several Boeing aircraft for "Oxygen Hose Replacement " within 36 Months This AD is effective September 23, 2014. Subsequent to MHH370 disappearance A new AD effective June 5, 2014. was issued specifically for Boeing Company Model 777F series airplanes for "Oxygen Hose Replacement " SU-GBP Cairo on 29 July 2011

If I put my tinfoil hat on for a moment i would say something like. Some one in Malaysia knows what happened and are keeping quiet, very quiet.

Rubbish !

"Africa's Problems" are the US the IMF and the World Bank. Support of Despotic leaders and crippling debt so that western corporations can gain control of the African nations resources and assets via so called structural reform.