Insight

i don't allow myself to get caught up in this any more. my new attitude is, the thai people voted, they want a convicted felon and his cohorts in power, then like people in all democracies they get the government they deserve.

Perhaps, but regardless of what some people speculate on here, I think you can put some very safe money on a large group of people turning out to oppose any efforts to get Thaksin off "scot-free"

The country is in the hands of crooks serving the agenda of one man and resentment is building.

According to the Bangkok Post Charlem has now done a bit of a U-turn on this whole pardon nonsense...?

INCLUDING many red shirted people I hasten to add!!!!!:jap:

It will be very interesting to see if a real anti-Thaksin faction of the red shirts emerges from all this...

I'm not sure that makes much sense.If one can win power legitimately why should one want it illegitimately? It's more of an issue for Thaksin's opponents with their coups, judicial interventions and failure to win popular support.

We know that many Thais find Thaksin unacceptable but that doesn't give them a veto power.In essence that's what the political struggle is about.

His path to power may be legitimate (and what's "legitimate" in Thai politics is a very grey area indeed, as the news shows us every day). His path to riches however, which enabled his path to power, certainly has its clouds.

You nail it when you say "struggle" though. This is going to be anything but a smooth transition.

If he comes back a free man, mark my words, Thailand will not have free and fair elections again.

Why should Thaksin have a problem with free and fair elections since the parties he's associated with are able to win them so comfortably?

Historically, people who go to the lengths Thaksin has gone through to obtain power never seem to keep hold of it legitimately. It's not as if "being legitimate" is something this man prides himself on so far.

And to many Thais the man is utterly unacceptable.

... a PM with no political experience who refuses to debate and who insists she's not going to be biased on the issue of pardoning her OWN BROTHER, ....

Quoted for best use of caps ever.

(or today at least)

On the other side right now:

"I believe Pol Lt-Col Thaksin, who graduated from the police academy and finished a Phd in criminology, knows all the procedures," Mr Purachai added.

You're being a bit naive if you think that the whole episode will be over or the conflict will go away if Thaksin returns. It will just be back to the beginning.

No it wont. It will be either a deal has been worked out or Thaksin has won, probably the former. If he can come back that means the whole 5 year plan to break him and then leave him in exile has failed and that those who launched it have either accepted this and worked out a deal or they have been defeated. To defeat Thaksin necessitates beating his party in an election. That seems the least likely outcome of all

When you speak about a deal being done, you speak as if it is all neat and tidy, with Thaksin on one side, and all the "anti-Thaksin" together, on the other. I think the situation is a lot more complex than that. There are so many different factions involved, and all have the power to kick up a stink; create trouble. I can't envisage a deal being done in which all factions, and indeed all parts of society, will feel satisfied enough to simply sit back and accept after all that has happened, Thaksin returning. At the very least, there will be one group that takes to the streets; one group whose feelings will not be suppressed by inducement or intimidation. And it won't be pretty.

In February Crispin spoke of a deal. Of course not everyone will be satisfied but they dont need to be. There arent many players in this who can veto things, and the reality is that there is no settlement without resolving the Thaksin issue.

If some sort of deal had been reached would the Democrats still be so vocal in opposition...? They're constantly being associated with the "elite" and "old guard", so following this propaganda surely one would expect them to tow the line...?

Regardless, apparently there's a demo against amnesty for Thaksin at Lumpini park tomorrow 4.30pm. If this info is correct I imagine it will be the first of many.

I suppose we will also see if "All the THaksin's Horses and all the Thaksin's Men" can "put Humpty Dumpty back together again".

I don't think they intend on attempting to put things back together. They seem more keen on crowbar'ing things apart....

At some point in the next couple of years, Thaksin's going to be pardoned.

We all know it, there are plenty of signs. Some people just can't accept it.

"Some" ?

Wait and see.

Have they overrated their own popularity, or do they simply want to put it to the test...?

There's no optimism left here regardless.

Im in previously quite yellow but swung to the red in more recent years and mostly had enough of it all Chonburi and I also spend a fair deal of time in the dems flirted with it unsuccesfully in most cases soft red lower north

There are basically two ways it all ends:

1. Thaksin returns unfettered

2. Thaksin loses an election

The Dems and mates just tried number two and failed, so now it is over to number one attempts which will either succeed and end the conflict or will fail and leave us back to trying number two again which if it fails brings us back to number one again. Also only number really has any deal potential

Edited to add: I may be wrong but I would also have seriously thought a legislative amnesty rather than pardon would have been the real route chosen and may still be. After all it is less controversial and has been used by coup makers in the past which sets a huggy touchy feely kind of lets forgive ourselves precedent

Your commentary has always remained relatively neutral, there's no question of that. Dems had their chance and pretty much blew it (although Mrs Insight points some blame towards the PAD for this, launching their silly, borderline childish "vote no" campaign rather than get behind then Dems for a common cause).

But PT are not making any attempt whatsoever to reach out to the disaffected here. Quite the opposite, in fact - reigniting this "pardon" campaign is a perfect example. In my opinion within the city things could get very volatile if they continue to push (but am also wondering if this is actually what they're after....?).

Frankly the only reason I'm following the situation now is to keep a forecast on stability. The people who can make a difference are clearly not interested in reconciliation, or making an effort towards change which would benefit the masses. It's mainly because of this I'm no longer as enthusiastic about Thailand as I used to be. Sad, but that's the way they are...

I wonder if they got 2 million names so as to slip Thaksin's name somewhere in the middle and hopefully go unnoticed. The gall of this new government is just unreal and shameless. It looks to me like they are setting themselves up to have absolute control above and beyond any laws.

Not if but when Thaksin gets a pardon it will mean that all this protestation will have to stop. Not going to criticise the pardon decision are we boys. The sooner he comes home the better bored with all this criticising. Starting to sound like the one track Dems Foreign Policy.

If/when Thaksin returns the whole episode is over, and a lot of ordinary people will be happy and not just reds either but that so called silent "majority" who just want the conflict to go away and everything to return to "normal". That is the problem for the Dems side, the silent group just want it all to go away and when/if it does it leaves only the extreme anti-Thaksinistas and anyone the Dems can whip into a frenzy of hatred in their southern fiefdom who will care, but then again if/when the man does return all those silentistas wont be too happy if the Dems try a whipping up of anything so maybe they will just have to accept it too

I say when/if as I am not so certain that there wont be a weirdity to derail government

Am I right in thinking you're in the sticks, Hammered? Am sure if you are the whole pardon thing will go completely unnoticed there. Business as usual, so to speak.

I don't have a fraction of that optimism for life here in the city however.

However, the minister said workers' skills and efficiency must also be developed to be worth the pay rise.

.. and if not, you're for the chop.

A minimum salary is looong overdue in Thailand and - being honest - 6,000 THB per month really isn't that much. However it wouldn't surprise me if its implementation suffers resistance from PT's own bedfellows. And if it's poorly implemented (as it looks like it's going to be) there's a good chance this will backfire on them through disgruntled supporters.

My own biggest concern is how PT/UDD plan to deal with any protests that kick off. It's pretty clear this time around they won't let themselves be run out of power easily, regardless of how legitimate the reason.

I'm not young and this is the first time in my life I've heard of the concept of a national "minimum salary".

An employer should be able to expect to get a return on investment (the person's salary) of at least the amount the person is getting paid plus one Baht to make it the slightest bit worthwhile.

But so many new grads want "money for nothin and chicks for free".

I can't run a business that way.

I need a new grad with a BS in printing technology to be able to tell me the difference between RGB and CMYK. (No applicants could.)

If I ask a university grad the size of A4 paper, I expect him/her to know or to be capable of finding out. (All I got were giggles and a stupid expression with "I don't know. 5555555")

When asked how to find out? (All I got were giggles and a stupid expression with "I don't know. 5555555")

Then I handed the new grads a ruler and asked again, the size of A4 paper?

Yep. You guessed it. They measured it wrong.

And somebody is going to force me to pay those kinds of people a minimum salary each month?

No way.

I need everyone to be doing their part. No dead wood and no minor wives on the payroll. I need workers or we cannot survive.

"Minimum wage" would be a more appropriate wording. The UK has one.

Regarding the rest of your post, however, you don't need to tell me! I work as a software developer - unfortunately we've really had to lower the bar and rely on SQA procedures left, right and center.

My left-ist upbringing makes me lean towards a minimum wage, but from what I've seen from PT/UDD (PTP and TRT) over the years however it's clear they put the interests of a very small few way above the many and are playing the self-preservation game.

So the jury is still out on it for me

However, the minister said workers' skills and efficiency must also be developed to be worth the pay rise.

.. and if not, you're for the chop.

A minimum salary is looong overdue in Thailand and - being honest - 6,000 THB per month really isn't that much. However it wouldn't surprise me if its implementation suffers resistance from PT's own bedfellows. And if it's poorly implemented (as it looks like it's going to be) there's a good chance this will backfire on them through disgruntled supporters.

My own biggest concern is how PT/UDD plan to deal with any protests that kick off. It's pretty clear this time around they won't let themselves be run out of power easily, regardless of how legitimate the reason.

Very sneeky ploy here by the Phea Thai leadership. Talk about putting the sqeeze on. How will the red shirts react if the pardon is rejected? Sneeky. Very sneeky indeed.

That's the plan.

Depends if they want a coup or not.

It does appear that they want to bring things to a head. Basically to shift responsibility of this 'pardon' to the Royal Household in any way possible. If it gets rejected it'll be people in the street and then what? Will they take over until Thaksin is given a pardon?

Chalerm, Yingluck, Thaksin & the UDD are not stupid. This along with their 'red villages' appears to be a push towards calling the bluff of the army, who will certainly face opposition in any coup attempt.

If the red shirt (leadership) attempted to rally against any decision not to pardon Thaksin, it would be a real indication of priorities to both reds and non-reds alike. They may meet more resistance than they were counting on.

I wonder if any reporter for the Nation or Post would deem it interesting to visit a red village and report on what it is really like. The usual is all the red scare stuff still hanging over form the last regime and the CRES anti-red campaign and of course there are extremist militant reds. I havent been to one of these villages but know loads of red shirts from a variety of backgrounds and I cant think of any of them who are militants and even the undereducated ones seem to be able to discuss politicis better than your average college student. It would be really interesting to hear honest reports of what these villages are like rather than rabid comments from those who likely have never been to one whose opinion is based largely on media driven meme

I'd be more interested to hear a report from a foreign reporter turning up unannounced and questioning the locals on their political beliefs. If this ever happens I hope they ask the right questions before any suspecting "minders" appear ...

Agreed, teat anyone precisely the same. What means that Abhisit an Suthep should be treated as any other dictatorship that turned the guns on its people. It means too that the soldiers who ordered and who shot should be in the dock. Unfortunately we know for over 10 months that Suthep as the man responsible for DSI has falsified the reports and investigations into the deaths of many citizens and two nurses.

Abhisit is the last one who should comment on what the new government does or does not. He is as human rights abuser on precisely the same level as the man his criticizes.

How about I camp out on your doorstep for two months? Please note its unlikely I'll be able to hold my bowels for that long.

If I do, please resist the extreme temptation to shoot me.

I truly wonder what will happen with the denizens of TV when/if Thaksin returns and not to jail. These threads should be a good giggle on the day that happens if it does.

Thailand will be a good giggle the day that happens.

Except for those who Thais who had the hope that "the rule of law" would help ensure fairness and bring an end to this mess. What a sorry day it will be for them.

And they ain't a minority either.

hmmmmm Yingluck was talking about cleaning up Bangkok's image, maybe they sold it to the Shinawatra family to pose as the saviors of thai society.

Wouldn't this be ironic? The redshirts "win" the election and then the party proceeds throw out the thousands of Issan girls working in Nana. No more new homes, cars & buffaloes for the

family..ha ha !!!

The irony of it all! The Nana Cultural Centre I like to call it. Definitely a cultural icon - for better or for worse.

That deserves to catch on!

It doesn't matter what your reasons for being in Bangkok, if you can't see that nowadays Nana is a complete hole, you need to get some fresh air! The place needs some serious cleaning up, whatever is built there.

It really would appear they are working hard to set the stage for a civil war....

Reconciliation has nothing to do with their current set of actions.

They could be purposely antagonising certain groups of people (PAD, Multi's, army etc), baying them for a negative reaction which could ultimately lead to "clampdowns" and "shake ups" which will assert PT/red shirts even more control...

Words fail me.

Hang on, no they don't.

Miracle Thailand!

Ace.

So far So good, closer and closer to the real agenda

I do like your posts

"Strengthen the movement" (we all know what that means) and "reconciliation" mentioned almost within the same sentence.

Time to start packing the parachute.