thaistocks

Regarding Thai IPO's and the incomplete praise they acclaim. A key reason most all Thai IPO's do well on the first few trading days is in good part because Thai speculators' & day-traders' pounce on them,  at first. This is not indicative of a successful IPO. Why does the Thai brokerage community -or the SET- not tabulate (like elsewhere) how IPO's stock prices perform say 3, 6, or 12 months later.  As this is the real gauge and test on how successful they are post listing, in retrospect, over time. 

This way all investors can evaluate with transparency how Thai IPO's fared,  well past just the first few speculative days. Also there should be a list the various broker/financial advisor which brought them public (IPO.). As is now: Thai IPO's success is really a who knows? Because to my knowledge, no long term follow-up tabulations on performance are published anywhere? Why not?

We are just now globally entering the darkest period of this CV19 health fiasco. As over the next few weeks-or say 2 months both in the US and EU new cases will/keep sky rocketing (but death % rates have stabilized).  Yet, its a matter of weeks until a vaccine or a cure or likely both, come on stream. This will change the sentiment for the better because even if its not widely available to say until Q2 2021, it will signal the light at the end of the tunnel and things here and elsewhere will get less paranoid.

On 10/19/2020 at 7:47 PM, Ketyo said:

So many people want to be victims in this "me too" world.

 

What about all the people who were stranded in Thailand when the lockdown started? They were desperate to get back to their home countries but were stranded. Headlines were full of stories about people stranded in Thailand and Cambodia and New Zealand and .....and their governments weren't laying on flights to get them home. So governments laid on flights to get their stranded citizens back home.

 

And now the headlines are full of people stranded at home who cant get back to Thailand.

 

Are they the same people? Some people want to be victims all their lives.

The above while a generalization is so true.  I too can remember so many expat scary nellies which could hardly wait to get out of Thailand, many foreign embassies had to organize private charter planes and book reservations -and in part sponsor this "get them home" by all means. Presently, so many can't wait to get back here and complain if they can't, just now.  The cards turned on them, it was/is safe to stay here and far more health risky to those whom went back home.  

Also consider the expat community which spend money here...this money circulates via the multiplier effect as is know in economics. So a Bill Baht spent, snowballs in fact many times over.

Tow doctors come out of the operating room. The mother of the patient anxiously asks, "how did it go?"  The doctors' answer "well, the operation was successful but the patient died". 

Thailand got to 0 Covit19, but just about devastated its entire economy and tourist sector has gone to 0.   In economics 101 its always a trade off, "guns vs. butter".  Yes, you can eliminate something or create something or build something etc.. but the question is always at what cost!  That's what Thailand did, it got to 0 infections but all just about killed its economy, for now... while putting many millions out of work and soo much other misery, mostly for the poor or average citizens.

11 minutes ago, polpott said:

The West still offers children a far better education than Thailand does.

True, in general, but not to forget its much up to the parents as well!  Many kids in the West are still smoking/partiying -and wild and disrespectful to the elderly...ignore parents. Free and loose with all that contains, good and much bad. Mostly the Western state is all but bankrupt, due to as mentioned the entitlement birth right believe. Many boys in the West are checking out (totally confirmed by the numbers) as they believe there are increasingly less opportunities, vs. the minorities.  One has to balance it all, not just deviate on what one believe is important (with our own western biases.).

1 minute ago, polpott said:

Just imagine how much she could have achieved had she been educated in a Western country.

Well, You have exactly the stigma, in reverse, so many Thai's here have. The west has mostly peaked along with all the entitlements which is bankrupting the state. Just look at the mess in the US at present, first wanting the wall..now being all but walled in.  A sense of family, taking care of the elders etc..all but too often missing.

4 minutes ago, EricTh said:

When the vaccine comes, this plan is going to change again. 

The problem is when? and even when it comes, how will they scale it up to vaccinate a billion people out of 8 bill., worldwide.  First they will allocate those to health care workers, then to some privileged like Govt. elites. It will take a long time to filter down to the common traveler. And in the meantime there is a risk of something else going wrong, like a backlash. Not least, many will then not want to take the vaccine for legitimate or not, fears. Its a nightmare.

Double CV19 test, plus 14 days quarantine -and on top you must in advance specify where you will rent/stay the whole time?  Leaving no freedom to move around? Its too draconian and sadly will be passed up by most all.

This is an alarmist headline, typical of mainstream media hype. The Thai economy came to a standstill, yes just now, but as soon as things are contained it will bounce back. Its just a snapshot of what is at this very moment in time -and does not account for how quickly it will likely bounce back. The Thai SET is already projecting this, having rallied back 20% off its low point in March. That of course is not mentioned. Stock markets are always forward looking.

At least its not a bird flew which can spread and travel, like its wings. China has seemed very responsible to date on this it seems....and the Thai Baht is dropping at last -which is a blessing in disguise.

On 11/24/2019 at 12:59 PM, Stevemercer said:

The Thai government has agreed to pay China for the very fast train in US dollars. China insists on being paid in US dollars for most big contracts, including procurements (such as the submarines).

 

It is in the government's interests to keep the baht high to support their capital procurement program.

 

Despite the central banks recent rhetoric (admission that the baht is too high) nothing much will change over the short to medium term. This assumes, of course, that the government can continue to balance an over-valued currency against a deteriorating export sector.

Well, alternatively they surely could spend some of these procurements with US$ they already have. I.e With its way over the top $ reserves -just sitting there.  Use a part of them for these $ purchases!  BOT is every soo stinchy with the FR and so being the Baht strengthens more.

29 minutes ago, Crash999 said:

You’ve got it backwards. A reduction of foreign reserves means sell large amounts of dollars and buy baht. This will strengthen the baht not weaken it. 

OK, but alternatively surely Thailand could easily use part of its foreign reserves to buy/purchase foreign equipment/infrastructure materials/services/equipment to build all those foreign made new trains etc, or to pay for other mega purchases infrastructure it plans to makes.  Drawing down some its over the top reserves would send the clear message -and the Baht should weaken a bit.  Is just is soo odd how this is never mentioned by the BOT, or others here.

So Now, besides our data's every click through surveillance capitalism, they now want to know our bodies to.

Of course its best to have an introduction.  But if you have a Thai bank account (essential so to collect dividends) then its rather straight forward. Just go to a Thai broker and tell them you want to invest in the SET and open a new account.  Don't let anybody tell you you need a workpermit for that as retired people invest here easily.  Investing here in SET stocks just about by definition does not require a work permit, but perhaps a longer then just tourist visa, as you should have an address.  Once the Thai broker account is open (usually takes a week) its imperative to be very carefull what you invest in as the marketing officer (broker) is likely not qualified as a wealth creator with deep experience...and interested in commissions more then saving you from loosing money.

What is not mentioned here is that on the SET a nifty dozen big companies (which make up the bulk of this index) or so, are doing OK, while most else has been and keeps sinking.  The MAI index and the sSet index hoover are at multiyear lows, Thai retail investors are near abandoning Thai stock market investing where the percent or retail investor has dropped to below 40% of total average volume for over a year now,  vs. or near half to what it was for many years before.  (65-70%). Ex-those nifty dozens, the rest or some 500-to 600 Thai stocks performing lethargically on average. Realize smaller and mid sized companies make up some 70% of the Thai economy. 

Average returns on all IPO's last year was a negative 9% while the best performing ones reserved only for privileged investors. Foreigners residing here are offered IPO's but most of the time with no English language IPO prospectus, a big no-no in the Securities industry.  And where is the economic recovery on the way as here mentioned? As the trend of late is continued downward revision in Thai GDP, as in exports.  Also too often of late, the poor political climate only gets lip service.

What about Koan Kaehn electric light train? Its been on the "go ahead" for a couple of years.