thaistocks

https://marketdata.set.or.th/mkt/investortype.do?language=en&country=US

12 minutes ago, Airalee said:

Yes, no one knows where the baht will go.  But you are using faulty logic  using hindsight as justification of a good investment.  You know...past returns and all that.

Not making future predictions here -at this venue.  I just made the point that even while the doomsayers acclaim a property glut in Phuket and then deduce/infer many endure loosing investments;  just tamed that down by showing the other benefit -nobody brought up.  From an expat view point its always about total returns, so obviously the currency change counts.  Sugar Palm Condo is right adjacent to Phuket's biggest and long expanding park & ponds. Its installed 100 outdoor high quality excercise equipment. Go take a look,  Its the only building with direct-secure access to this grand park, while minutes away from town.   A big pool make up nearly half of the building plot (3rd floor)

Only if you assume, as soo many expats wrongly have in the recent and long past, that the Baht is peaked and will now only go one way, down.  That thinking was wrong for over a decade...and while some average properties in Phuket are in a glut and its always buyer beware, the Baht currency as Bloomberg writes has been among the strongest in the world.  Regarding a comment a while back that most agree there is a Phuket property glut (and so not a wise investment), beware its an old investor reality: when it comes to investing, most are usually wrong. 

Point being, any property losses here was perhaps substantially reduced by the Baht appreciation, the lack of annual prop. taxes and still decent rental income due to many deducing like  poster Patong2.

Patong2 You seem to only have focused on Patong, which is in a world of its own. As pointed out in prev. post Sugar Palm Condo. example, right on the park and not on the beach has increased some 50% since opening besides the Baht vs. most other FX currencies appreciations. Perhaps you did not broaden your looking?   Even Shop-houses, ha  yet so flagged in horror 10-20 years ago, yet in many locations, notably Phuket town, have appreciated considerably.   But off your radar screen?  And no annual property taxes.  And contrary to in the US, here it did not collapse during the N. Atlantic induced global financial crisis.

You likely know next to nothing about the Thai share market...its human that "what we don't know we inherently don't like" (especially when it comes to ones' savings).  As a US based person you say, you likely also have the additional headache & audit trigger back home as to US taxes and complicated filings etc..which have nothing to do with merits on Thai property investing.   BTW, a strength or weakness of a currency where one invests is of paramount important metric to foreign investors and related to this discussion as a property glut does imply a financial risk and of loss (its the core)  and examples where given here on a property bought and sold for less, i.e. losses... implying a glut.

Agreed, currency appreciation is a real part of total (foreign to Thai) investor returns.  

Realize, most all expats go around bad mouthing the SET, to their own peril along with their no real understanding.  Its true its a wild (SET) market with plenty of speculators & manipulators, many inept brokers and so difficult to get valuable research & unbiased added value insights. Combine this with the ferang (felang) constant negativity and you got a perfect case made to justify in staying away.  Hence all that galore property investment, yes resulting in some cases an oversupply!   But like so many things in life,  this (SET negativity) is too one sighted often confusing the SET with the investor strategy...as there are surely some good companies, paying double or triple dividends compared to bank interest...and if you take a longer term view and can tolerate some ups and downs (another thing they don't teach) over time and with proper diversification you can generate superior returns...which is so key to keep up with inflation and create new wealth, which cash or savings in the banks just don't.  This has been long proven without any doubt, but don't expect to get advantages on that reading the local newspapers or listening to uninformed, non-professional nay sayers.  To be clear I am no way advocating this in any biased way, as I don't offer any subscriptions / memberships and so cannot/do not, benefit. Further, I could care less if anyone SET invests or not....just sharing some insights in good faith here.  It should also be stated that recently only largest cap stocks have moved on the SET, with most all smaller and mid cap stocks stuck in a groove.  Big cap Thai stocks are now as we call it "a crowded trade" ( i.e. over chased) and in time smaller/mid cap stocks will re-emerge.

With near 30 years broad investor experience and in Phuket, I can say: Agreed with your conclusions Mysterion

, except one should add any sort of oversupply regarding average non-Wow properties in Phuket, these investors should part blame themselves in over-favoring property/real estate vs. other saving alternatives. And surely so, some got caught in a bind which also means there are likely some properties on the market here which are "bargains which go begging".

Right on Peterw42  -while chosing to ignore how the Thai Baht appreciated 15-20% overall, and more vs. AU$.  Also, they had for full great use in this time. Further, they chose not to tone down the big property purchase with a balance, say invest in a SET fund, which appreciated nicely over past few years, in Baht and in ones' full foreign name.

Some good posts here, yet the few usual negative and/or wrong understanding.  People the world over which miss out on increasing assets almost always later find reasons why they did the right thing so to justify. For sure more then a few Phuket properties are to say the least stale & not moving as there does appear to be an oversupply of such. 

Yet, Phuket is far more then just a "holiday destination", retirees keep coming in droves and many have money. Not least because of the low/no tax base, excellent climate/food besides health care & lower cost of living. Surely people advanced in age (above 50, is the official retirement age here) often have more money/capital then younger folks.  What nobody addresses is the oversupply being because soo many people know nothing about different investments alternatives, except buying/building a nice house/condo.  Call it a real market inefficiency, because it results in over-bidding on an asset class, which in time by definition does results in a quasi glut.  Economist called this a "savings intermediary mis-allocation of resources".   In capitalistic societies its assumed owners of capital will just about always make rational decisions based on what is a best investment, where of course quality of life also commands is a big factor.  Phuket went rather amiss on this, as many expats/retirees/investors bid up -and build up and owned up- only on property as they have no clue about financial asset investment alternatives.  10 to 20 years later these skewed decisions resulted in an overbuilt property situation on average dwellings. 

Realize, well beyond volatile stocks there are diversified property and infrastructure funds which pay Q. interest, at an annual rate of 6-7.5%, besides have lower withholding Thai taxes then the 1-2% interest paid by Thai banks. These can be legally owned by foreigners, can be divided by selling off or buying more in small amounts (can't do that with property) are private and in a currency which has appreciated.  To those which know nothing about it, as they rightly claim, there are ways to become savvy but you have to get beyond assuming we all "got the birthright to free information on the internet".

Here is a better way to re-state what I intended to:

Don't blame Phuket or Thailand. [Regarding Phuket Property Glut]. Expats have only themselves to reflect on if they are locked in (Phuket) "me too" property which is difficult to sell.  As for years too many just kept building and buying housing & real estate at their own peril, while avoided all kinds of financial assets despite in the past ten years doing overall well...besides have liquidity and divisibility!  [I am here not addressing the legality of ownership, as most all are legal like condo's and 30 year registered leases -but want to restate the fact how most people/expats are financial assets illiterate]. These so created the glut by over exiting then bidding, overbuilding by over-valuing in their capital, only property vs. well performing financial assets over say past 10 years.  But even if they bail-out (or, alternatively just enjoy it longer) below what they paid some years ago, the Thai Baht has been among the world strongest most stable currencies...and unlike in most Western countries there were no annual property taxes levied while still relatively good rental income options.  Compare this to Australia where its high priced property is definitely peaking in value at present (and a real risk this down move will only accelerate) even while on top the AU$ has lost over 25% vs. Thai Baht, in just the past 4 years.

Don't blame Phuket or Thailand. Expats have only themselves to blame if they are stuck in (Phuket) "me too" property which is often now unsellable.  As for years they just kept building and buying real estate at their own peril, while avoided all kinds of financial assets which in the past ten years have overall done soo well...besides have liquidity and divisibility!  Its these people which created the glut by overbidding, overbuilding and over-valuing only property.  But even if they bail-out below what they paid some years ago, the Thai Baht has been among the world strongest most stable currencies...and unlike in most Western countries there were no annual property taxes levied.   Compare this to Australia where high priced property is definitely peaking in value now (and a real risk this down move will only accelerate) even while on top the AU$ has lost over 25% vs. Thai Baht in just the past 4 years.

Right on xylophone.   that is the “curse of the century”: a total-gross lack of financial investment education by our educators which have all but ignored this...  Go figure why?  Or, It then also leaves the door open to take advantage of folks which have no clue around this.

Some years ago I offered to give free financial investor classes at Thailand’s most expensive boarding school here  (BIS), which educate young aspiring people, many from well to do families. Surely in their own lives this will be an issue again and again; yet nobody there seems interested in addressing this dire short coming.   Realize, as humans we tend to not like (and then bad-mouth) what we don’t know.   PS. I was just stating facts regarding the Thai SET, not promoting anything.  To be clear,  in the past 2 years investing in the SET has mostly not been rewarding except for a few largest capitalized stock picks.  One reason is the very inept approach by the brokerage industry.

Lots of good comments here on this topic along with lots of negative nonsense, as usual. For what its worth I do agree with the statement "I would agree with you that lower quality properties in sub-prime locations are stagnant if not in “glut”. Lots of questionable stuff has been built in poor locations over the years with the erroneous hope that “if we build it, they will come"  Right on. This in fact hits the nail by the hammer. 

Over many years so many expats have come here with their savings/capital and because they mostly have poor investment education/experience/savvy,  hence they just built a nice house (or a nie houe, as some Thai's would say).  Deducing its the best investment for their capital and one they can enjoy.  Reality is, hey have no clue about financial investments alternatives and because they have no understanding on that, think all such are manipulated and crooked.  Not least, Thai stocks for example can in fact totally legally be held in a foreign name and repatriation out of Thailand is all but assured (or no foreign money would ever invest here in that asset class again). 

During this same period, say the last decade, the SET index has more then doubled, the Thai Baht has nicely appreciated...-and besides had they built a truly special place  (not just another vanilla nie houe with walls around it) they would have done relatively well, even in otherwise an oversupplied Phuket "me too" housing market.  As pointed out in a previous post, a well chosen Condo building right on the park  (no, not on the beach) has appreciated over 50% in value since opening 4 years ago.  So lets not confuse brains -with poor investment choices on just an average property investment.

Also, unlike many places in the world, the Phuket housing market is not financially over-leveraged (i.e. little bank loans) which means sellers are not forced to walk away, or so called forced sold out,  and this is likely the biggest reasons why we not see a glut (however one wants to define it) resulting in an across the board price dumping.  This is rarely mentioned, but Phuket real estate is barely bank mortgaged...so owners can hold on if they want.

Ha, yet the Thai Baht has been among the worlds strongest currency (Bloomberg says so), increasing nearly15% vs. both the US$ and Swiss Franc, and less so against the EU.  Hence compared to major global currencies rents here have in fact increased, even if not in Baht terms. Also beware there are few renters' rights here so you can leave anytime as well as get kicked out anytime if a more desirable renter comes along.

This Condo project as an example, well off the beaches, but next to Phuket Town biggest and expanding municipal park, more then doubled in value since its start just some 3-4 years ago.  http://www.sugarpalmresidence.com/

For years in the 1990's they said the same thing about the many shop-houses existing and yet ever being more built in Phuket; yet 10-20 years later many have increased in value 5 to 10 times.  In Phuket town many shop houses have soared in value, vs. before expert foreigners told us it was a boring town. Its not so much about yes/no the property mkt. stalled here for long, or if it has just become far more selective.

Also proper foreign ownership is easy in Thai stocks and there are many funds or blue chips which pay good dividends. Repatriation in ones' name is also assured, obviously, or nobody would invest here again.  :)

Yes. The Chinese are coming en-masse, and this will only get more pronounced and can go on for many years.  There are some very high class individuals with plenty of money willing to open companies or other ways to own assets here.  Its in part what will dent the nay-sayers that claim property prices are long peaked in Phuket.

Sorry for the bad typo in my previous posting which said:"

"The far more interesting question -nobody seems to ask- is why have smaller and mid cap stocks broadly so outperformed the SET index, over say the past couple of years? " 

It should have stated:  he far more interesting question -nobody seems to ask- is why have smaller and mid cap stocks broadly so under-performed the SET index, over say the past couple of years?

The far more interesting question -nobody seems to ask- is why have smaller and mid cap stocks broadly so outperformed the SET index, over say the past couple of years?   In the past individual investors (which often invest in those here) would make up 60 to 75% of the average daily trading volume...no more as it dropped for some time already below 50%.  Any business which saw its core customer base shrink like this would be more then alarmed.  Yet the SET and indirectly the brokers here go on as if nothing is wrong.  To be fair, there were other periods in the distant past where smaller/mid cap stocks diverged from the SET -and visa versa.  This time however its more pronounced then ever and deserves dire concern, nowhere expressed nor addressed.

PTTGC (100), one of the largest cap stocks here,  was much touted since last September some 35% ago, all along -and up.  It by a factor of just about 5 times, beat the SET index rise, since it started its ascent later last year.

Also,  ha..was maximum bullish on PPS at the end of year 2016, PPS almost doubled in price by late September '17, plus a 20% stock dividend paid last May '17.  Its true that of late smaller cap stocks have overall under-performed the SET which seems abandoned by the so many retail investors, not least due to in general inept Thai broker behavior.

The Thai stock market, like many others around the world, has been buoyant of late.  No least because of a perceived pick-up in Thai economic growth. Also because of the belief there will be elections held say within a year.  The SET benchmark index recently hit an all time high and is hovering just above that around 1830, going into the first days of February. Contrary to many nay-sayers here, Thai stocks have been on a roar... really?  No, not so fast, as the rise of the market has been mostly confined to a bunch of very large capitalized shares which make up the bulk of SET benchmark index.  In fact a closer look shows that not only has the rise been focused on very large SET companies, in fact retail investor participation has lately dropped to below 50% of total market volume.  Alarming.  This is significant as in the past retail investors usually made up some 65 to 80% of total market SET trading volume.

The local brokerage industry should ask themselves' why retail investors are in such great numbers recently abandoned investing in the Thai stock market as a savings alternative; evenwhile domestic interest rates remain soo low and the stock market has been bullish. One reason surely must be due to the ineptness of the industry which serves stock investors.  Confidence and trust are among the most important elements required to attract investors, and it seems this is ebbing...at least when as it concerns the local retail investor community.  This is a (big) shame, because here there are many smaller and mid sized listed companies which are attractive -besides make up the bulk of the Thai economy.  Retail investors exiting is bad news for those firms, as they will loose a large percent of people which invest in such companies, vs. institutions which most only consider/invest in large capitalized stocks due to their obsessive liquidity requirements. 

I frown upon the SET/SEC and the Thai brokerage industry for issuing IPO's to foreigners living in Thailand while at the same time not making available the IPO prospectus in English.  Gulf Energy (51) this week started trading in what is this years largest Thai IPO. The company confirmed to us it has the English language prospectus which was offered to institutional investors abroad, but why not to individual foreign investors in Thailand!?  Foreign investors  in IPO's are "encouraged to read this before investing" besides clicked a box in their broker accounts that they did read this, even while its not available.   In my professional view, issuing IPO's to a   class of investors without the availability of a readable prospectuses goes against proper international Securities Industry standards regarding this.  

With the economy now accelerating and next year Elections promised, there are select good companies here to invest in, -but for the Thai brokerage community there is allot left to be desired.

I have been in and out of Bangkok dozens of times, traveling via Taxi's to all kinds of places visiting companies. Never encountered any problems fo any kind....except maybe a Taxi A/c not working correctly.  Once years ago a bundled of cash slipped out of my silk suit pocket -and a stranger ran after me to return it.