RPCVguy

Daily measurements on hundreds of locations globally, gathered over 50 years and averaged gave a DEFINED baseline that the IPCC nations agreed (in 2015) to use as the pre-industrial starting point. Very refined instrumentation since then has allowed agencies to measure the current AVERAGE to a level of precision. If you look at the graphics in my post above at https://aseannow.com/topic/1320365-thailand-braces-for-intense-heat-with-temperatures-soaring/?do=findComment&comment=18708900 Pay attention to how closely the different, independent agencies numbers have agreed over the last 50 years. Then too, look at: https://aseannow.com/topic/1319433-first-time-the-world-has-exceeded-15c-for-an-entire-year/?do=findComment&comment=18698506 You will see some lines have a shaded range showing the degree of uncertainty in that researcher or agency's numbers.

Here is a Bangkok specific reply as to the effect El Nino has on the history of heat during March, April and May. The peak temperature for El Nino globally is generally in February of the year after the El Nino started. Temperatures are rising globally, so recent La Nina years have averaged higher than El Nino years of even a decade ago. 2024 is when the peak temperatures for this El Nino cycle are expected. These charts and tables show monthly averages compared to 30 years of averages for the same months from 1991-2020. I highlighted the El Nino months to call attention to why this 2024 season from March through May has a high likelihood of being uncomfortably hot.

You can do some research instead of just showing what you challenge others to answer. Try this: "2023 was warmest year on Earth since direct observations began. In Berkeley Earth's analysis 2023 was 1.54 °C above our 1850-1900 average, making it the first year above 1.5 °C. The extreme heat was due to a combination of natural and man-made factors, including global warming and an emerging El Niño event. 17% of the Earth's surface had a locally warmest year, affecting 2.3 billion people, including significant parts of Asia, South and Central America." https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2023/ Their story is at https://berkeleyearth.org/about/ They also show their reporting versus the other agencies globally

Though this and the related comments about the border are off the immediate topic... No. Beyond the GOP griping, the current US law regarding asylum seekers is what allows people to remain in the USA once they have entered. Do some research and see why the need is for Congress to get its act together and pass different laws. The senate made an attempt, and Mike Johnson said it was DOA - before even reading it. Yes, it is easier to complain than it is to devise good, well written, applicable laws - but the current stars of the GOP prefer grandstanding. To start your research, his is a useful link: • https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/8/1158

To be more precise, it is the first time since at least the beginning of the last Ice Age that Earth has been at this temperature. This El Nino cycle is expected to peak early this year - meaning heat release from the oceans soon will not be as significant a contributor to global average air temperatures. Don't expect any great relief though. The albedo reflectivity is worsening as snow and ice covered areas shrink, and the insulation factor of greenhouse gases continues to grow as their concentrations continue to increase. Here is a set of graphs covering various historical ranges: And here is the current plot of global daily air temperature anomaly. Earth has definitely averaged over 1.5ºC above the baseline agreed to by the IPCC and set as an International Goal to stay below in Paris in 2015 Image source Prof Elliot Jacobson via X, though this site by the University of Maine supplies anomaly data by date - against a more recent/ warmer baseline of 1979-2000 https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world The latest global surface temperature data point on Feb. 8 from ERA5 once again put the planet 2.0°C above the 1850-1900 IPCC baseline, at 2.01°C. The only other times this has happened were Nov. 17, 2023 (2.05°C) and Nov. 18, 2023 (2.06°C).

There are a number of women who have made discoveries for which they were not given credit. Once the error is known, it seems wrong to perpetuate the error. Among climate scientists, Eunice Foote is now recognized for her research, discovery, and presentation (documented in 1856.) It will take a while for old quotes of the prior citation to be clarified. Here is a quote, published in 2011: "Conclusion In the course of scientific discovery, it can be difficult to assess claims of priority, particularly if research results are not placed in the public domain through formal publication. This is commonplace for presentations at scientific conventions, where often only a title or perhaps an abstract is preserved for posterity. In the case of Eunice Foote's pioneering research on absorption of radiant energy by greenhouse gases, such as CO2 , and the implication that compositional changes in the atmosphere could impact climate changes, it was only through the journalism of David Wells that the originality of her work has been documented. Despite the absence of a formal publication, It is clear that Eunice Foote deserves credit for being an innovator on the topic of CO2 and its potential impact on global climate warming.” https://www.searchanddiscovery.com/pdfz/documents/2011/70092sorenson/ndx_sorenson.pdf.html The information is accessible to track. Here is another link to it: https://www.aip.org/history-programs/niels-bohr-library/ex-libris-universum/foote-note-climate-science-founder

Small correction here. The work was done and first presented 2 years before John Tyndall in 1858 as is usually credited. It took over a century for the proper credit to be given. http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/09/02/the-woman-who-identified-the-greenhouse-effect-years-before-tyndall/

Yep, a problem for habitability in the tropics as temperatures and humidity approach having days near human metabolic limits. That's especially bad for workers outdoors and those without access to air conditioning. Those with AC better hope there are no blackouts. As for the Arctic, the soils may not support what we would hope to grow, and in many areas of the Arctic, trees are toppling as the subsoil thaws, heaves, or turns to a muddy mess.

If you think a trace gas can't have a large effect, you've never noticed how a small mosquito can affect you . Greenhouse gases are transparent to visible light, but absorb and re-radiate infrared light (heat.) Human industrial activities have caused the concentration of CO2 from the inter glacial peak of 280ppm to 420ppm, that is a 50% increase in the insulation layer of CO2. Methane and nitrous oxides have also increased. The result is that day by day more heat energy is getting stored in Earth's systems. The imbalance, expressed as watts per square meter over the planet now exceeds 1.5W/sq.m. The cumulative effect is huge. 90% of that heat is stored in the oceans. Warmer oceans lead to more intense storms.

Interesting news today about Michael Mann: "After a day of deliberations, the jury ruled that Simberg and Steyn defamed Mann through some of their statements. The compensatory damages were just $1 for each writer. But the punitive damages were larger. The jury ordered Simberg to pay Mann $1000 in punitive damages; it ordered Steyn to pay $1 million in punitive damages." https://www.npr.org/2024/02/08/1230236546/famous-climate-scientist-michael-mann-wins-his-defamation-case

The full 213 page decision by the Colorado Supreme court can be read at • https://www.courts.state.co.us/userfiles/file/Court_Probation/Supreme_Court/Opinions/2023/23SA300.pdf The first few pages of the text get right to the heart of the decision, with the balance being to document their reasoning and hem in the options for the true audience, the US Supreme Court. The Colorado court's decision was explicitly written to force the SCOTUS "originalists" to accept the precise wording and need for applying the 14th Amendment. I think the US Supreme Court would be doing the GOP a favor by agreeing with the Colorado Court's decision. The delay tactics by Trump's team in the DC and Georgia cases sill likely mean that the convictions that look to be assured will not happen until after the COP convention, making it too likely that by the time of the election their nominee will be ineligible for the office his MAGA fans seek to grant him.

Agreed! These are the basic questions for many retirees, especially retirees who have married Thai. As reported so far, this is the kind of murky, ill-defined announcement that will cause a flood of comments, and tons of anguish. (As did the forced medical insurance rule change of a few years ago.) I have no investments and conduct no business. Currently I am well below the amounts that are taxable in the USA. As it is for me, ALL of it goes to my family, helping the local town economy. This part looks encouraging, but is slippery when viewed midst the overall message of the article. "The section provides for a 15% tax rate on interest on bonds, deposits or debentures, and capital gains derived from selling shares, debentures, bonds or other financial instruments linked to companies or other juristic partnerships. The legal experts suggested that many investors, including foreigners and Thai people alike, may not be able to easily differentiate for tax purposes between the principal and income of sums moving in and out of the country, which could lead them to be taxed at a rate of 35% and in this way would become an incentive for investors to keep their money out of Thailand to avoid complications with the Revenue Department."

Earth's oceans are in the midst of an El Nino, one that is forecast to be a strong one. As noted in this article, El Nino has strong consequences for Asia. • https://www.eiu.com/n/el-nino-south-and-south-east-asias-2023-wild-card/ El Nino / La Nina conditions are forecast each year around early June for the coming 12 months. The peak ocean conditions occur in the following December- February, which for Thailand means warmer weather during the seasonal dry season, often extending the duration of the typical hot, dry season of March through May (in 2019 the monsoons didn't arrive until June). We should be happy the current rainy season in topping off the reservoirs. The impending dry season is forecast to be worse than usual.

Agreed, the use of the word boiling is inappropriately excessive. BUT, just like humans suffer greatly from a fever of a few degrees, so too will the plant and animal ecosystem of the planet suffer in the warming ahead. No, THIS YEAR'S HEAT IS SET TO GET MUCH WORSE IN 2024! The effects of El Nino had barely begun by July of 2023. See images from paper by James Hansen. Historically the global peak temperatures are early in the second year of an El Nino. Early in the year also coincides closely with when Thailand has its peak heat each year. In 2016 & 2019 the dry season lasted longer than usual, local wells (including ours) went dry and the string of days over 39ºC in the north went over a month straight. Hansen's paper is at https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/UhOh.14August2023.pdf While July was warmer than usual for Thailand, by-and-large Thailand has thus far been spared the intensity of increased warming that has already been experienced in other parts of the world. •

The detailed argument by the 2 Federalist Society constitutional scholars will be cited in briefs going forward and will have a strong influence on cases going forward. For now, expect a number of lawsuits directed towards the respective Secretaries of State. Action needed = "each of the 50 state secretaries of state has an obligation to print ballots without his name on them.” Calabresi also “said…that they may be sued for refusing to do so.” Argument for Immediate Disqualification The article goes on to note that former U.S. Appeals Court Judge J. Michael Luttig, a “star witness” during a televised hearing of the U.S. House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack, also praised the article. He says it “promises to be of monumental — and historic, if not also contemporary — importance to Constitutional Law.” The issue has been adjudicated in several House primary cases, but will surely be tested anew after this article. Noted after Representative Cawthorn's case was appealed: Praveen Fernandes, vice-president of the Constitutional Accountability Center, which filed an amicus brief, said: “Although Representative Cawthorn just lost his party’s nomination for his seat in Congress, today’s ruling remains an incredibly important one. “It makes clear that the 1872 Amnesty Act poses no barrier to similar future … challenges of the qualification of candidates to appear on the ballot, thus ensuring that section three of the 14th amendment can continue to serve its purpose as an important mechanism for holding public officials accountable when they violate their oaths of office.” https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/25/madison-cawthorn-appeals-court-insurrection-ruling

You were right, but the playing field has just been upset. The good news is that two Federalist Society, Right-wing judicial scholars join together and write a 126 page article citing in great detail why the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution is self evident to apply, that Donald Trump is DISQUALIFIED to hold ANY OFFICE in the USA. Those on the political left have said since the insurrection in 2021., But this time it is coming in a way that will prompt and win suits in many states - to remove his name from any ballots. William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen wrote "The Sweep and Force of Section Three" University of Pennsylvania Law Review, Vol. 172, 2024 It is fully available to view or download at • https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4532751 This shift in landscape, coming from the political right, is earth shattering bad news for the former president, ... and many others in congress who supported his conspiracy.

TRUE, and there is a mathematical reason. Local papers, papers playing to their region' readers often get to make the quotes shown above. Not stated is that land warms faster than oceans, and ¾ or the planet is ocean. Loss of albedo reflection allows changes in the Arctic to also be at higher than globally average rates.

Planetary wide temperature averages have basically run between 14ºC and 16ºC through the Interglacial peaks of the last 800,000 years of Ice Ages. They also look to have remained below 18ºC for the last 5.3 million years. Those broad scale planetary average can be viewed in this first graph, taken from the latest paper by James Hansen (and 16 other climate scientists.) See: PipelinePaper.2023.07.05.pdf This should add concerns to the way Earth neared 17ºC in the La Nina to neutral year of 2022, and have now spent nearly all of July 2023 ABOVE 17ºC. We are rapidly leaving the Holocene conditions that life on Earth has currently evolved to be supported by. https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/ _________________________________

Since some here can't seem to speak truthfully about trends visible in line graphs, and cherry pick short time frames to point to cooling (especially as applies to Europe) ... here are a pair of images using colored maps to convey temperature changes. The first is from June 2023 Temperature Update - Berkeley Earth , and the second is from https://scottduncanwx.com/ Meanwhile, CNN Business is reporting on the early estimates of economic costs now being encountered Scorching summer temperatures could strain the economy even further | CNN Business . Lastly, insurance companies are pulling out of insuring real estate for Florida and California due to floods, storms and fires.

As was noted, Europe is just a portion of the planet. A shift in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or "AMOC," accounts for cooling temperatures in Europe. An exhaustive review of many sites through time shows our planet was warmer earlier in the Holocene, then began cooling towards another Ice Age... until the cumulative increase in greenhouse gases (predominately of CO2) halted, then reversed the cooling. We are now warmer than at any time in since the beginning of the last Ice Age. We are aiming to soon surpass temperatures since over 3 million years ago. The rapidity of change is not something trees, mammals , and the web of life upon which we depend can handle. The rapidity of change outpaces what killed of most species in past mass extinctions. This was answered with a graph accurately showing repeated 15 yr trends and the long term trend. Cherry picking the data does allow showing multiple periods of cooling (La Nina dominated cycles when the oceans soak in the heat into their depths.) BUT, the long term trend is warming... obvious to anyone who'll look. The natural cycles our planet was in for the last few million years was cooler than the norm for our planet. Weathering of rocks from past lava flows reduced the CO2 of the atmosphere as it weathered rocks into carbonates. BUT that natural cycle that allowed orbital cycles of our planet to go in and out of ice ages was halted and then reversed by the release of greenhouse gases that we humans did as we accessed and burned fossilized deposits of coal, oil and gas. (see the very long term temperature history in the bottom left portion of my first graphic.) The scientists at EXXON were tasked with researching the impact of the continued use of EXXON's main product back in the 70s, and delivered their answer in the 80's They did a remarkably good job of predicting the temperature increase we are already experiencing. This Carbon Tax idea has been reviewed and improved upon. James Hansen has been promoting a CARBON FEE & DIVIDEND plan since at least 2015. Here is his PDF on the subject as of 2019 https://csas.earth.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/content/Fee-and-Dividend-Miller-Hansen-20191110-1.pdf A search for the topic shows attempts to pass it into law in the USA, though the partisanship of politics has prevented rational application. Benefits of a Carbon Fee/Tax would be to disincentivize moving manufacturing to nations with dirtier production - automatically imposing tariffs. The benefits of the Dividend is to eliminate this as a governmental income stream. Pass the Fees back to the population on a per capita basis. Those who generate more CO2 would be incentivized to shift their habits. Those who generate less CO2 would receive cash (monthly?) to cover rising costs.

The planet has been warming rapidly over the past decades, sufficient to be warmer than at any time since the last ice age. Of those recent warm decades, the planet surpassed prior records on July 3rd and has remained in new record territory since then. July 7th is the current record, while July 14th still beat the 2 dates tied for the prior record. the image is a subset of the info at: • https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/

Orbital and precession shifts are slow, ... and would currently be cooling the planet. Solar cycles matter, but are not currently dominant is shifting the Earth's temperature balance. What has most affected the planetary energy imbalance, causing a net warming, is greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere. These gases (CO2, CH4 and NO2) are adding to the insulation of the atmosphere. This graph definitely rebuts the notion that solar cycles are dominant at this time. What showed up as an abnormality and accumulated after 1900? ... especially in the 2nd half of the 20th Century? CO2 from the combustion of previously sequestered dead plants. Bloomberg posted an excellent animation that initially was easy to view... it compared all the major factors acting individually, then all but CO2, then all - including CO2. CO2 is definitely the dominant change to the Earth's energy imbalance. • http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/ This is the top link in this freely accessible page • https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/earthmatters/2016/01/25/four-graphics-and-a-book-that-help-explain-climate-change/

The Heat Index was developed to better represent the potential threat to life that the weather can pose. Heat Index combines heat and relative humidity into a number that conveys how easy or hard it will be to shed the heat our bodies generate by our metabolisms. If we can't shed the hear, then heat stroke becomes a possibility. How quickly can it kill? that depends upon health and conditioning to heat of the individual, but 6 hours in such conditions will kill even young people of excellent health. There is a related "Misery" Index that also factors in wind speed for the ability of moving air to assist in chilling the body. It is far harder to compute, but in broad terms are regularly mapped from data collected by satellite. Most places in Thailand only get into the amber color zone for an hour or 2 per day. It is worse in India near Pakistan, just before the monsoons fully take over the season there, Here is regional map from April 19th. https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/04/19/0700Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=misery_index/orthographic=-266.77,17.23,3854/loc=99.729,13.708 Here is a Heat Index table , with the relative humidity of the moment on the horizontal axis, temperature on the vertical, and the Heat Index as the intersection of the two.

In my last comment I somewhat promised to provide the April update mapping. It was just published in the last 24 hours. Reading the color codes, the central and eastern regions ranged from the warmest to 3rd warmest months in recorded history. The north and south each missed being in the top 5 Aprils on record (records in Thailand go back to 1840, but not so many stations as now. Currently there are 119 stations with reporting included in the satellite supplemented data collection.

Besides talking about the weather, I like tracking it - as demonstrated in my earlier post. Besides those above links is one that issues comprehensive reports with monthly and YTD data. It is https://berkeleyearth.org/about/ The report for March came out in mid-April and I'm linking to one of its images. It shows average monthly data and color codes in shades of red or blue the locations that experienced temperatures in the recorded top 5 for heat or cold. The monthly report shows images for the average temperature range, but this image is good for highlighting extremes. It is just one of the many images mapped and graphed at https://berkeleyearth.org/march-2023-temperature-update/ ... Sometime in mid-May we'll get to see which parts of the world had record (or near record) heat in April. I'll vouch for this being a miserably uncomfortable month here in the far north of Thailand; I rarely use our air conditioner, but this past week I used it daily. What would be interesting would be people predicting what degree of red will appear in what locations in Thailand. I expect shades of red to appear over northern Thailand. Yet, as the meteorologist noted in his story, April is always hot in Thailand. We await sufficient rain and monsoons to cool things. Talking about the weather is a strong part of human culture. It affects our comfort, our ability to work, play, travel, ... or have a successful crop season. At its extremes it can threaten our lives. In the short term talk is cheap and we can't do much about it other than seek shelter and hope the power does not go out. Here is the El Nino forecast listed on that March update: "a 60% chance of a shift to El Niño conditions during the middle or end of 2023. Models currently disagree on the intensity of the possible El Niño, with some models predicting a very strong event, while others are more moderate. The developing warm pool in the Pacific will likely give us a clearer idea of what to expect within a few months." It closes that topic stating: "it is likely that any El Niño will have a greater impact on 2024 global temperatures than it does on 2023." Since the HOT season for Thailand is in April and May, Thailand won't truly see the El Nino extreme heat effects until April of next year. As for some of the commentary that I'm sure will follow. There is a swamp of misinformation and snide commenting posted on sites like this. Misinformation won't change what the weather will do, but it may cause good people to suffer consequences of being ill-prepared.