RPCVguy

When quoting statistics such as deaths (whether by Covid or by guns) the stats can be in terms of absolute numbers or they can be reported as deaths per 100,000 or per million. Absolute numbers will consistently look worse in the most populated cities and states, but the rates per 100,000 as shown in this 2020 Pew Research graphic can be surprising. As noted in earlier comments, over half the deaths are due to suicide. Murders will be numerically higher where there are the most people, but small towns like Uvalde, TX demonstrate that they can happen anywhere. That statistic (murder vs suicide) is not one I've found separated out in any consistent manner. Maybe someone else has been more successful. As for the law in California... it is a way to push back at the long term inoperability for society to have vigilante snitch laws like in Texas regarding abortion. Neither law should stand, but it will take a rebalancing of the Supreme Court to get that accomplished.

Since some indicated they were confused by the prior post - here it is in simpler terms: The vaccines are doing what they were designed to do - they reduce hospitalizations and deaths. They DO NOT do as well at reducing infection. Only masks and care in social distancing does that. Omicron is less dangerous than Delta but is more infectious, so hospitalizations in the USA hit new peaks despite the milder likelihood per case. During the Omicron wave, the metric to watch and respond to is community/ provincial hospitalizations, not cases. In the USA it is the CDC that tracks and reports (monthly.) From their reporting at • https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#covidnet-hospitalizations-vaccination In December (during Omicron), compared to fully vaccinated persons in each group shown below, the monthly rates of COVID-19-associated hospitalizations were: 16X Higher in Unvaccinated Adults Ages 18 Years and Older 8x Higher in Unvaccinated Adolescents Ages 12-17 Years 12x Higher in Unvaccinated Adults Ages 18-49 years 18x Higher in Unvaccinated Adults Ages 50-64 years 18x Higher in Unvaccinated Adults Ages 65 Years and Older This resembles the data from the UK as reported in the Guardian. Those people with known comorbidity complications will fare better if vaccinated than if not. If their community is midst an outbreak, they are well justified to still wear a mask even if mask requirements are dropped.

Covid-19 is a viral infection that has a higher risk for death than the flu, and a far higher risk of death than a cold. Death happening or not is a big issue, but not the only issue. The infectiousness runs the risk of overwhelming the hospitals and health care systems - which then block access needed by people suffering all the other major maladies of traffic accidents, heart attacks, and the full assortment of diseases the hospitals normally treat. Lastly, some 30% of those who survive the infection still have symptoms for months longer. The worst cases have permanent damage such as scaring of lung or heart tissue. https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-long-term-effects/art-20490351 The virus may also have some of the ongoing nastiness of Herpes, HIV and Chickenpox (which comes back as shingles.) For these many reasons, Covid-19 needs to be taken seriously with precautions to avoid its spread. Precautions include wearing masks, social distancing, avoiding crowds, and getting vaccinated/ boosted. The Guardian published an interactive graphic recently that shows how some anti-vaxers abuse statistics. See The simple numbers every government should use to fight anti-vaccine misinformation | Australia news | The Guardian I like it because they also updated what the survival rates were in NSW for vaccinated vs unvaccinated by age group. If looking through another site is too much, I spotted this composite image of the data presented by The Guardian. Thailand has done well in getting much of its population vaccinated, especially after the rough start through mid-2021. Vaccinations, mask wearing and some aspects of rural people getting sunlight and fresh air have helped reduce the incidence of serious illness in Thailand vs many other nations. For all of the above good results, pandemic weariness is here. The desire to stop wearing masks and to socialize risks again spreading the disease exponentially to the millions in Thailand who are not yet fully vaccinated, still making calls for a reopening of the nation a risky option. February began the vaccination of children ages 5-11. It will take at least 2 months, likely 3 months to give two jabs to this age group, reducing much of the opportunity for spread that way, even as older citizens complete their series of vaccinations. The transition to reopening the society has begun, but it needs be a cautious and staged transition.

AstraZenica is vouching for its efficacy against Omicron when 3 shots were taken, but what about Sinovac then AstraZenica, then a booster of AstraZenica? That is the sequence offered to many people throughout Thailand. (though the cities are again first to have the option of #3 being an mRNA vaccine.) Thai virologists say studies are underway or done, but I struggle to ever see the published findings. ... especially peer reviewed findings. I hope it works, but am not eager to be required to trust in it. As of yesterday, I was told at our local hospital that while Pfizer shot #2 is being administered today, I will not be allowed to get a booster here until next month - and at that time they will give me a 2nd AZ as a booster. "Maybe later" is when I might hope to finally get an mRNA. Those who waited for Pfizer for their 1st jab had to wait locally 2½ months more than I was willing to wait for my first jab. Multiple studies now back up the idea first published in NATURE back in April - that mixing the Oxford–AstraZeneca jab and the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine triggers an immune response similar to — or even stronger than — two doses of either vaccine. • https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01805-2

Best to act quickly on selling these variegated plants. One of these days the people who invested too heavily will find themselves facing the bust that happened to tulips in the Netherlands. See https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dutch_tulip_bulb_market_bubble.asp

Thanks for these links, especially the third one which accesses a PDF showing various studies (including from Thailand) as to mix-n-match approach/ results. The results of AZ followed by Pfizer have been published since April, and repeated as listed (again in Nature at https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01805-2) I saw the Philippines is looking at boosting involving Sinovac and Sinopharm followed by AZ then Pfizer, but the study has not issued its report yet. Bangkok provides access now to Pfizer after many options as in a related post here in Aseannow: (emphasis mine) As with earlier in the vaccine rollout, the mRNA options are most easily available in Bangkok and then in the bigger cities. Our local hospital says they won't start boosters until January. Worse for me, I've been told only AZ will be available as a booster. If I want/ desire mRNA, I'll need to wait longer (??) or find a ride to a city.

I used the pink ID card when I got vaccinated, and in my vaccination process (2nd dose) I was given a paper certificate identifying vaccines by lot# and date. The certificate used the same 13 digit # as my pink card, but my name and address was entirely in Thai. After getting jabbed and waiting the half hour to be observed for effects, I went back, said I needed something in English, and for my passport# to be included. A 2nd Cert was generated - including my name/ address in English, plus adding my passport #. The QR code is the same. I scanned both to my computer, inserted the English version into the back of my passport (the only time I'll need it is if I leave) and have the Thai version in a zip-lock bag for examination if needed. As for the App - my phone is only used as a phone, not connected to the internet. Can a person log onto MorProm via computer, and get the image to store on their phone that way? Hmmmm?

Your logic is comparing apples to oranges. ... in several ways. 1) Covid was more infectious than the flu, BUT people took active measures in social distancing and masks wearing to avoid allowing it to spread as much as the flu. ... thus it did NOT spread as widely as it would have. WHY did they take those measures? Because SARS-CoV-2 proved itself to be a more severe disease,and wherever it broke out, the hospitals filled up and people got stacked in morgues awaiting burial or cremation. The rate of infection was not long allowed to expand freely because of the consequences. This throws out your conclusions. 2) The infection rate of DELTA is several times higher than the earlier variants. Delta requires greater vigilance, not comparisons to the flu or presumptions as to its prior reach. It is what arrived in Thailand about the time of the Songkran holiday, and its rapid spread got away from what had been a fairly successful program of contact tracing. It has taken an intensified vaccination program putting the highest resources into the most infested areas to BEGIN to slow the spread. The vaccination program has only recently gotten to a high enough portion of those hotspots that the case counts are coming down. Outside those hotspots, the percent of the population who've been vaccinated is minuscule. Opening up too quickly will only guarantee many more months of trouble. Continued vaccinations to get 2 shots minimum for over half the population in all provinces must remain the primary focus. Poor logic and analysis of what has gone past will not help into the future.

Thank you! You are the first in this thread to point out that Covid-19 spreads exponentially, where one case leads to more UNLESS PEOPLE PRACTICE SOCIAL DISTANCING. That has been the function enforced by the lockdowns that many here seem so intent upon ignoring. Add in the problem that Thailand's push for vaccinating people has reached (on first doses) 32.9% of the population by the end of August vs only 19.5% at the beginning ... BUT it takes generally TWO DOSES to fully sensitize our immune systems to the molecular traits of the virus. Thailand (per https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-people-vaccinated-covid?country=THA~IDN~MYS~PHL~USA and related site data is only at 11.1% FULLY VACCINATED. Compare that to the results in the USA where even the lesser vaccinated states are over 39% fully vaccinated. https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-tracker/ Thai people are helping get by with less vaccinations so far by being better at wearing masks, and by social distancing, but it will take several more months of high vaccination counts per day to get the risks of Covid caused hospitalizations down to levels where opening up can be safely done. Before that, the exponential growth of an opportunistic virus will stymie attempts to jump start the economy. Oh, and People can also check the worldometers site and see Thailand has moved from 7th t0 6th position for number of Severe and Critical cases of Covid... This has got to be wearing heavily on all the Doctors and nurses, particularly those in the Dark Red zones..

Same two vaccines, different studies. This is as published in Nature Medicine https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01463-x

I'm not willing to agree that there was a plan to do what is happening, at least not at first. I will agree on the consequences unfolding and that the 0.01% is doing what they can to wring all the benefits they can. That's what typically is done by those with the resources to weather the early disruptions and realign the policies of what they control. It is still IMO a short term strategy. Limits to Growth (the 1972 report by MIT) AND climate disruptions are each set to add bigger consequences that Covid has thus far leveled. ... So yes, we haven't seen anything yet. As of yesterday, Thailand was listed on the Johns Hopkins website as being #10 on Covid Cases over the last 28 days. More consequential is that it was #7 on the Worldometers database list when sorted for severe or critical cases in hospitals. Those stats put Thailand's current numbers in the range of far larger nations - most with greater resources. AS MANY HAVE SAID, GETTING PEOPLE VACCINATED EFFECTIVELY NEEDS BE THE #1 PRIORITY AT THIS TIME. Also IMO, MoPH has done the best they can with the vaccines in hand, but the unpublished study as to Mix-n-Match still needs to report on how quickly the efficacy of those two doses wears off. That's when a round of booster shots will be needed, sufficient to rapidly accommodate the full need of the people. Falling short of that, and not masking effectively? That's being done in the states of Florida, Louisiana and Texas among others in the USA. I see those as large scale cult followings that far surpass what Jonestown, Guyana saw in 1978. Sad what cults can do to their followers.

You've pointed out that people can behave in an out of control manner. The 1918 flu was dealt with by masks and social distancing. Today there are many people who feel that natural processes should not be allowed to influence their behavior. Vaccines can advance the process of gaining freedom,but the behavior of people as a community is step #1.

It is not out of control world wide, but it is spreading too rapidly for hospitals to handle in some places like from Florida to Texas in the USA. Vaccine control is desired but is currently insufficient. Mask and social distancing control is the viable option until vaccinations can get to enough people to avoid the consequences of Delta in unvaccinated people - children are at the mercy of the adults around them.

Well the multi quote didn't connect... Back when the new policy was announced in July, the online version of NBT World posted a link on their Facebook page to a video that had graphics running too. 1) NBT World | Why is Thailand mix-matching vaccines? A video in English posted on Facebook by NBT World. Bar charts are at the 4:52 mark - worth pausing and considering. The Bar charts suggest a study was run, data generated. The problem is that I've yet to find the actual study or any peer review. Even what was posted only had an (n) of 36 and 2 for the 2 chosen policy options. 2) shortly afterwards The Nation posted an image with a slightly higher number of participants (75 and 35) which can be seen at: https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40003742 As people have noted, several nations have started with AZ as the first dose and then mixed with an mRNA. The Health Ministry in Canada does note that the minimum time between 1st and 2nd dose should still be observed for whatever was the 1st dose. That favors giving Sinovac first because it has the shortest time between doses. A study in Nature suggests mix-n-match has advantages A ‘mix and match’ approach to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination | Nature Medicine The bottom line is that people globally want vaccines that are in short supply, especially the mRNA varieties. Different nations chose different options early on as to which vaccines to order, but the people in each nation are in a race to get their immune system inoculated ASAP with the best they can get so as to best hope to fight the DELTA variant when it reaches them. I signed up on August 1st for the expatvac site, and have heard nothing from them since. They are definitely focused on the Bangkok area first. Last week, when my local district office offered a mass vaccination day, I got in line and got a jab of Sinovac. In 3 more weeks I'm scheduled for AZ. NEXT YEAR when my private hospital finally gets Moderna, I and my family here will pony up the cash and get those shots. IMO, the Thai medical system is doing the best they can with the options they have been given. I hope it will be enough.

Our local Amphur started a 7-day mass vaccination campaign yesterday. With the Delta as contagious as it is, trying to gamble on getting fully vaccinated with Pfizer seems a stretch too far. I went to the vaccination site, got in the queue and was vaccinated about an hour later. Looks like they were jabbing 1-2 people a minute with Sinovac as first dose, AstraZenica for those few getting their 2nd dose. I'd been communicating with the nurse in charge of registrations since late May. As they were packing up I asked if the health workers had gotten Pfizer. "Yes, but not enough for everyone." was her answer. Bottom line about Sinovac as I shared with friends and family in the USA: Millions of doses have been administered, yet many other people have been holding out (like me) for the vaccines that are scarce in the world. I photos taken so as to encourage others to get what is available now. I just messaged friends locally, trying to put these photos to work to get past local resistance. It is not protection from infection, but it does give our bodies a sample of what to be prepared for. The rest is up to us, and our overall health and immune system strength. Wearing a mask is still advisable. Every level of protection helps slow the spread of this disease.

This is the best comment I spotted , and it came early midst many comments. You've covered getting the jabs ASAP, using what has already been purchased, AND you've covered the concern of people like be as to keeping options open for what are demonstrating to be more effective vaccines. If this government policy stated its policy included regular people (not only those on the medical front-lines) being able to boost their initial vaccinations with what will be arriving in 2022, then it would simplify choices now for people who don't live in or near Bangkok. It is a matter of getting people vaccinated ASAP. The behavior in some states of the USA certainly shows the high penalty in hospitalizations and deaths for places that simply choose to neither vaccinate nor control their social interactions. This article from July states Malaysia has already secured 45 million doses of the Pfizer mRNA vaccine. Surely Thailand could do (have done) similarly. The best time to act was months ago, but the next best time is now. Last comment on the issue - as affects expats: I'll note that yesterday I saw a commenter saying he was about to make a 3 hour drive to Bangkok, basically telling expats in distant provinces, those awaiting an email about their chance for some of the donated Pfizer vaccine, to just get in a car a get there. At 3 hours I would find a way, but its 2 hours for me to just get to Lampang. Bangkok is a lot farther, many more hours, and I no longer drive. Lots of us expats contribute all that we have to our family and rural communities... and immigration sure tracks that monthly cash flow. I would like to hope the authorities see and care about more of the country than the industrial provinces of the Bangkok area. This is an open question. The Pfizer vaccine only requires normal refrigeration after thawing from its initial super cold state - at which it is valid for up to 31 days. It can at least be shipped to each provincial capitol where vaccinations can be carried out for those with appointments.