RPCVguy

The Heat Index was developed to better represent the potential threat to life that the weather can pose. Heat Index combines heat and relative humidity into a number that conveys how easy or hard it will be to shed the heat our bodies generate by our metabolisms. If we can't shed the hear, then heat stroke becomes a possibility. How quickly can it kill? that depends upon health and conditioning to heat of the individual, but 6 hours in such conditions will kill even young people of excellent health. There is a related "Misery" Index that also factors in wind speed for the ability of moving air to assist in chilling the body. It is far harder to compute, but in broad terms are regularly mapped from data collected by satellite. Most places in Thailand only get into the amber color zone for an hour or 2 per day. It is worse in India near Pakistan, just before the monsoons fully take over the season there, Here is regional map from April 19th. https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/04/19/0700Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=misery_index/orthographic=-266.77,17.23,3854/loc=99.729,13.708 Here is a Heat Index table , with the relative humidity of the moment on the horizontal axis, temperature on the vertical, and the Heat Index as the intersection of the two.

In my last comment I somewhat promised to provide the April update mapping. It was just published in the last 24 hours. Reading the color codes, the central and eastern regions ranged from the warmest to 3rd warmest months in recorded history. The north and south each missed being in the top 5 Aprils on record (records in Thailand go back to 1840, but not so many stations as now. Currently there are 119 stations with reporting included in the satellite supplemented data collection.

Besides talking about the weather, I like tracking it - as demonstrated in my earlier post. Besides those above links is one that issues comprehensive reports with monthly and YTD data. It is https://berkeleyearth.org/about/ The report for March came out in mid-April and I'm linking to one of its images. It shows average monthly data and color codes in shades of red or blue the locations that experienced temperatures in the recorded top 5 for heat or cold. The monthly report shows images for the average temperature range, but this image is good for highlighting extremes. It is just one of the many images mapped and graphed at https://berkeleyearth.org/march-2023-temperature-update/ ... Sometime in mid-May we'll get to see which parts of the world had record (or near record) heat in April. I'll vouch for this being a miserably uncomfortable month here in the far north of Thailand; I rarely use our air conditioner, but this past week I used it daily. What would be interesting would be people predicting what degree of red will appear in what locations in Thailand. I expect shades of red to appear over northern Thailand. Yet, as the meteorologist noted in his story, April is always hot in Thailand. We await sufficient rain and monsoons to cool things. Talking about the weather is a strong part of human culture. It affects our comfort, our ability to work, play, travel, ... or have a successful crop season. At its extremes it can threaten our lives. In the short term talk is cheap and we can't do much about it other than seek shelter and hope the power does not go out. Here is the El Nino forecast listed on that March update: "a 60% chance of a shift to El Niño conditions during the middle or end of 2023. Models currently disagree on the intensity of the possible El Niño, with some models predicting a very strong event, while others are more moderate. The developing warm pool in the Pacific will likely give us a clearer idea of what to expect within a few months." It closes that topic stating: "it is likely that any El Niño will have a greater impact on 2024 global temperatures than it does on 2023." Since the HOT season for Thailand is in April and May, Thailand won't truly see the El Nino extreme heat effects until April of next year. As for some of the commentary that I'm sure will follow. There is a swamp of misinformation and snide commenting posted on sites like this. Misinformation won't change what the weather will do, but it may cause good people to suffer consequences of being ill-prepared.

Yes, RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES do not get hit each new day. Weather is affected by time of the year and a string of variables. The trend (the climate) though is unmistakable. The Earth is warming and the insulation level of greenhouse gases are now at levels not seen for the last 3 million years. That is why the current starting position for an El Nino is concerning. During the El Nino that Peaked in 2016, Earth warmed to a new plateau of temperatures. While 2014 was the warmest year experienced until then, it is the coolest of the years since then. It looks like 2023 is about to start us up to anew and higher plateau on the graphs of global temperature. As cited last time. ♦ Sea Surface temperatures are at a record high, have been so since early March, and are not yet dropping as past years have done. https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ ♦ All 3 persistent greenhouse gases are at record high concentrations, trapping more heat into Earth's system https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html ♦ We are entering this summer with the 2nd lowest Arctic Sea Ice Volume on record. (We also know the waters beneath the ice are warmer than in past years. http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/CICE_curve_thick_LA_EN_20230414.png You wanted accurate global temperature readings for hundreds of years. The MOST precise data goes back to 1880, as broken out in the graphs at the right as attached. The larger graph at the left lists the specific studies, color coded by the time frame. The level of uncertainty is designated by the lighter greens and blues above and below the primary line. The basis for the green line is a 2013 study. • https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1228026 It is discussed more accessibly at: • https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/03/130307145303.htm

Thanks for bringing in both a source of data AND a mention of the El Nino that is forming. Here is another site that lets people see the current forecast and compare it to historical averages. I like that it maps the data. The root site gives far more options. https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outlook/?dm_id=asia-lea2&ndays=d1-3 From that site, the maximum temperatures map choice across the region as captured on Wednesday is in this image. The whitish color indicates temperatures over 40ºC. People looking at the mapping of temperature anomaly will see that Thailand , and SE Asia in general is warmer than average. The global news did get kicked into attention when the April 14th temperatures broke a lot of records, notably in Tak, which was recorded to have hit 45.4ºC. The historical data for specific satellite readings on heat, humidity, misery index, pollution and more can be accessed at this site. https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/04/18/0700Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-265.36,17.23,1823/loc=99.429,16.842 El Nino is VERY worth mentioning because during El Nino the oceans release more of their heat to the atmosphere than during La Nina (when the heat gets stored into ocean depths.) As El Nino arrives FOUR different indicators are in a bad starting position. Here is how (with references) ♦ Sea Surface temperatures are at a record high, have been so since early March, and are not yet dropping as past years have done. https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ ♦ All 3 persistent greenhouse gases are at record high concentrations, trapping more heat into Earth's system https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html ♦ We are entering this summer with the 2nd lowest Arctic Sea Ice Volume on record. (We also know the waters beneath the ice are warmer than in past years. http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/CICE_curve_thick_LA_EN_20230414.png ♦ Solar radiance cycle is on its pattern of increase and will increase into 2026. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

Add to the DUI duties at checkpoints. Our town's police went around and announced the e-bikes and e-trikes would be prohibited in town from today through Sunday (or Monday?) There goes my access to 7-Eleven or Tesco for the half mile that is our town's shopping district. Regular bicycles still allowed, but I stopped using mine as they had widened the highway and caused traffic to be faster even as they left less room to walk or bike safely. My trike is far more visible to drivers overtaking me on the road. As it is, too many very narrow misses to venture out, especially since I suspect many DUIs will get past the checkpoints as not being too tipsy in the moment.

A link that shows a related index (The Misery Index) is available at • https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=misery_index/orthographic=-265.14,13.53,2340 The data is from global satellite readings and maps perceived air temperature as combination of heat index and wind chill. Note that there is a control panel accessed by clicking on the word "earth" located at the bottom left of the image.

Doctormann provides a very nice chart that I've not seen before. I like it for posting BOTH ºC & ºF in the headings. I've been using a different one that lists only ºC. It does have an advantage of showing Relative Humidity down to 25%, and giving advice as to how to behave in those conditions. Nigelforbes added a comment about relative humidity getting very high but it lacks context as to time of day or conditions during June through October. The relative humidity is calculated against the temperature at the moment. High relative humidity is most common just before and after dawn. As the temperature rises, the atmosphere is able to hold 7% more water vapor for each degree Celsius the air warms. The time when high temperature and humidity is most likely to occur is as the season changes from the hot dry season to the monsoon season. That is when rain, hitting roads, roofs, and other hot surfaces, quickly evaporates off and raises the humidity while still having a hot environment. A few hours of such conditions will kill even the fittest of military persons, the elderly are at risk at lower temperature-humidity conditions. The 2016 and 2019 El Nino cycles kept the rains from arriving in Thailand until June,and heat had built up in the soil, roads, buildings, etc. etc. Those years we came close to experiencing what has been an annual situation in NW India near its border with Pakistan. Thousands have died during those events. A super such event is described in the opening chapters of the novel "The Ministry for the Future" in which the death toll over a week reached millions due to power grid failure/ A/C failure as the heat dome held sway. I appreciate the post overall. It is a useful warning that people need to add to their awareness as the climate shifts.

Great post for April 1st. LOL

The last two paragraphs of the article posted by The Hill are key to the situation, as is Sinema's pattern of obstruction when monied interests of her donors lie elsewhere. The best video clip calling out move as opposite what her state's 2022 election demonstrates as desirable. https://www.msnbc.com/alex-wagner-tonight/watch/the-real-reason-kyrsten-sinema-left-the-democratic-party-156909125666 Summary: She knows her obstruction has already cost her any chance of being re-elected as a Democrat. Her hope is to be strong enough as an incumbent to split the Arizona vote in 2024, even as the urbanization of her state strengthens the odds of a win for Democrats.

I've never had a problem with the Thai postal system. It is the hand-off to international carriers to the USA that is a problem. Does anyone know? ... Can we get details on what carrier? I suspect the problem is at the US Customs end, but there is a lack of transparency, despite mail be sent "registered" and "priority mail."

Learn the problems for the people in the rural areas. Only a few stores in town have card readers of any form. Most are mom-n-pop shops, especially in the open veggie market. Two years after demonetisation: Cashless India still a distant dream Then too, there is this aspect, rightly warned.

The Democrats definitely outperformed expectations since the gerrymandering of new redistricting was expected to net a 20 seat boost to the Republicans. Several people have mentioned the trends. Below is a snapshot of the history showing how only GW Bush's first mid-term (aided by post 9/11 fervor) showed a bigger deviation from the typical mid-term drubbing of the president's party.

Why would you stake out such a position? Looking at your previous comments on travel I'd guess you often passed the annual cap on payroll tax deductions - which would mean SS benefits might be a smaller share of your current portfolio. I had 40 years of deductions that built my account. Some good (including above the cap when I worked corporate management on Park Ave.) but many not so good (like when heading a true non-profit 501c3.) Looking at options when I moved here I forfeited medicare (and years of depositing into that system too) so as to be able to be responsible in other ways for providing food and shelter. That choice beat years of becoming a pauper in the USA receiving the same SS and also having Medicare. With SS I can live here with dignity and with a family - in a small rural town. Under your proposal things would become truly tight, and the air-fare alone would prohibit round trips to the USA and back to my family here of 15+ years. So, to be clear, I will vote against, and use social media to discredit any politician, party or commission pushing such a change in SS benefits earned and promised.

Starting with a novel (new) virus that became a global pandemic, I look at the current case rates being higher while death rates being lower as the consequence of medical hard work and the public fear that is only now releasing. Mistakes were made in every nation. 20/20 hindsight makes 2nd guessing decisions easy now. Those nations with the greatest resources had let down their guard, while nations with fewer resources ranged from low to high consequences based upon factors still being assessed. Bottom line, Thailand did avoid the higher death tolls per capita and has much of its population vaccinated. Some of the lighter shading on the map attached will be because of less focused counting, but Thailand has less than a sixth of Covid-19 related deaths of the United States, so even some accounting issues aside, Thailand did well - over the 3 years so far.