xbusman

I for one will be sorely disappointed with the demise of the Elite card. If the property market were to ever rationalize, the rule of law instituted and the politicians ever stopped engaging their mouth before their brain this forum would be over. Thankfully, while we knew the former was destined to go away, the others will be entertainment far after we depart this mortal plane.

Whew, so much drama. Relax, take a chill pill, welcome to Thailand. Been here a whole year and just now getting the hang of things?

You have broken no laws, you have behaved in fine Thai tradition of sneaking around parents and creating a web of lies and deceit. Nothing out of the ordinary here.

The only way you can go to jail is if the parents pay a lot of money for some corrupt policeman to harass you. The chance of that is none to barely registering on the scale. For a few thousand baht you can pay the same policeman to harass the family for having an underage girl work in a bar.

The only way you can lose money is if you pull it out of your wallet and throw it around. Hopefully you are smarter than that.

The only way a fine upstanding Issarn family will lose a daughter that can produce revenue is if she passes away, not much chance of that.

Here is some great advice on what to do. Make some strong coffee, have a good breakfast. Turn off your cellphone (IMPORTANT!). Put on some good music and have a great day. Dont answer calls for at least a week (in fact dont turn on your cellphone), go out every night, bask in the sun every day.

Here is the deal. Either you are in a negotiation for money or the parents really do not want you. I would seriously doubt that the parents do not want you but it is possible. If the parents do not want you, you simply have to walk away for more reasons than you could possibly know. If its a negotiation for money, understand that it will never end and if you want any chance for survival you better set the limits right now.

This is some really great advice and like all good advice, you should ignore everything and learn the hard way. Best of luck.

Just a note. As one of the group who understood from the outset that this was a scam due to for eventual failure, I never questioned the ability or wisdom of some people to buy such a service with the spare change normally found in their sock drawer as long as it was disposable money out of their lunch money.

I think that we will see the few people who purchased it at 1,000,000 baht back in 2003/2004 (40B/$) getting most of that back, say 900,000 baht after legal fees (29.8/$) for a tidy profit of about $5,000 US or close to 25% on their original investment over 7 years. Better than a T bill or savings account! During that time, they got some great free services, a few rounds of golf, ride from the airport, and all sorts of goodies. Wish my solid safe AAA+ T Bill from a country with unsustainable debt offered those services.

The risk for me was too much for the potential rewards but those few that could afford it might make out like bandits. In addition, they might end up with one last five year stamp in addition to making a little profit.

Not bad!

As is typical in Thailand, anecdotal experience is all over the board. As with everything here, the variables are never ending. What kind of business, how much profit, how difficult to move, what Revenue station, what revenue officer, and on and on. In my case, I manufacture and assemble here parts from all over the world, then export them to US companies. I have set up my company so it could easily and quickly be transferred to Cambodia or Malaysia (mostly because of the fluctuating baht but also because you never put enough investment locked down in a third world so as to become a victim). During the negotiations, we talk about how many Thais would lose their jobs and how much export business would be lost if they push too hard and what a shame to have to notify AmCham of this terrible problem of doing business in Thailand, blah blah blah. In the long run, they dont care but it gets their attention.

Here is what I think you can take away from all these posts.

The Revenue department like every other aspect of Thai society is endemically corrupt from top to bottom. They run independently and are determined to steal as much as they can from any victims they can identify. They have you in their grasp and are going to steal from you, the question is only how much. Sometimes you can pay a person, sometimes you can pay a tax, but you are going to pay unless you have contacts higher up than the general in charge of Revenue collection.

While every situation is different, you should probably identify your top and bottom limits and talk with other business owners in the Revenue district to see how they made their payment. You will find around 90 percent of the Thai businesses around you keep no books at all or if they do its strictly a work of fiction. But most of them at some time or another had to grease the wheel, if you can find one or two to tell the truth it might give you perspective on how much you should pay. Again, no benchmark in reality has anything to do with this payment. Its simply how much they can steal from you at this moment.

I have to agree with Patrick. Because the Revenue department is corrupt and they steal from us. So we in turn, have to steal it back. That way Revenue knows we are stealing and is entitled to steal it back which in turn entitles us to steal more in order to pay off their stealing. Simple aint it? Has worked here for at least a few hundred years and is a good lesson for anyone running a business in asia.

The first few times you get shook down its a bit hair raising but you will get the hang of it if your are lucky. The good news is that these goons wont break your limbs or put a bullet in you, its only your money they want.

gregb has the clue. We have been through this same scenario often. In Thailand, everything is possible... for a price. Since you posted, you are obviously looking for advice so lets see if we can make this at least as clear as mud.

First point, do your best to resolve this as quickly as possible. The longer it goes, the more people will want to be "satisfied" with your compliance.

Second point, nothing the revenue is doing is based on any sort of logic, law, fairness, common sense, courtesy or public interest so avoid spending more than five wasteful seconds trying to understand what is going on.

Third point. In this type of negotiation its important to get a number and stop the silliness. They will run you to death asking for obscure paper, weird receipts, and on and on all in a meaningless attempt to wear you down. Put up the wall, and get a number for a starting point. You have to get this number to resolve this issue and move on. When you talk with revenue, tell them that obviously your accountant does not understand the Thai tax system and ask them to recommend a consultant to get you in compliance. That tax consultant will be the bag man and be able to conclude negotiations and transfer your wealth to the appropriate party.

Usually for a tiny business like yours, the final payment will not be less than 10,000 and not more than 20,000 baht unless they can see a lot of cash/profit in the company. Thats pretty dependent on where you are located too. The Revenue dept is just as isolated and corrupt as the police stations and are not interlinked. Each is its own profit center for business shake downs. From anecdotal information, Bangkok mafia is usually more expensive than the burbs. If you are in the grip of Wang Thong Lang forget it, they are going to go for everything you got.

Like the police, just understand and appreciate that the tax rate is so low here that its a cost of doing biz.

There are lots of legitimate reasons for an owner to sell a successful business. Retirement, illness, cash flow (capitalization) problems, etc. For every possible real reason, there are usually 100 dodgy ones. In my experience, a real ongoing profitable concern with good reasons for the sale seldom get to the point of being advertised. Usually people close to the owner know the real score and a deal is worked out well in advance of being advertised. Anything that needs to be advertised and actively flogged should raise the spidey senses up a few notches.

Well, first off I dont work for any agents. Only relating my experience from buying and selling businesses over the years. ESB7, you have absolutely no idea whats involved with the 11 million price until you look at the books and review the financials. Making guesses as to what a company is worth from seeing an internet price is rather specious. Yes, you could buy two units for 11 million with complete fittings but again, whats the ROI on property in Thailand. My research has led me to believe that generally property is a very poor investment here BUT given the right property at the right price and it might be great. Its all about the numbers to start with. If those work, then there are a million other questions that should be answered but seldom are.

I agree with Basil that you better know why and how the numbers worked out in the financials, what made it tick. Best if you can keep the current owner around for at least a year or so to keep the continuity and learn all the details. Biggest mistakes I ever saw was the purchase of a business and complete disregard for the prior owner to the point of confrontation. Thats assuming the operation was profitable, if they were losing money it might be better to give them walking papers.

I think you are right, most of the bars are money pits run by inexperienced retirees who have other things on their mind. I dont think 11 million baht is a lot of money to lose even though I dont have 11 million baht I can comfortably lose. For people experienced in buying and selling businesses it is pretty small potatoes. For the inexperienced it could be a costly course in their higher education.

In any event, this is all just jawboning. Have to look at the books and see what the numbers say first. Nine times out of ten its not even worth doing due diligence and in Thailand its probably more like 99 out of 100.

Fortune IT has shops dedicated to vinyl and what they dont have they can order.

If a careful audit of the books with due diligence indicated that it was able to net around 4 million a year, it would at least be worth looking into. Businesses are very hard to evaluate, its not like real property with comparable market values and measurable dimensions. In the end, its the ROI that matters and risk involved to make it happen. Could be worth 1 million, could be worth 100 million, no way of knowing until you crunch the numbers and determine their relative reality.

I looked into some of the businesses down on Sukhumvit back in the heyday. I was surprised at how much gross revenue poured through their registers, and that was the declared bit. Sat in the bars for many days and counted the customers and drinks, then later compared it to receipts and they were only declaring about half. Not that the other half was income though, I would guess it went to the local police mainly. Books in Thailand are some of the murkiest in the world, but I was still amazed at the amount of verifiable receipts.

Lets say Witherspoons has a four year lease, and all fixtures are completely paid in full. If they have been netting 3 million a year, or around 250,000 per month average after paying an owner/manager 100,000 per month, then a 11 million baht investment would return about 10% on your investment. You get your original capital back in four years and the residual has to be worth something even if the lease is not renewed. That would be a reasonable deal, not great but reasonable. Where it would really pay off is in year five if you made it there. No capital investment and steady income of 100K with a 3 million bonus when you close the books at year end. Keep it going for twenty years and it will be a brilliant life changing investment.

The real question is do you want to invest in Thailand with a four to ten year time horizon when visa rules, company rules, tax rules, change like the color on a jing jok. Do you want to bet that the customer base for Witherspoons will grow over time, maintain or shrink. The one rule for any investment in Thailand is never invest more than you can walk away from and there are plenty of people around who can easily walk away from 11 million baht if things go south.

Hard to say if anything is worth any price until you do careful and complete due diligence.

Well, if the economists are convinced that all of asia either pays cash or puts down 50% against mortgages then the growth in shrinkage of mortgage lending from 350 billion to 300 billion is a wee bit more shrinkage than 5%. Clear as mud.

Back when I worked in the music business this topic came up on occasion. Let me preface this with the caveat that I have no musical ability but great respect for the extremely fine tuned hearing and ability of those who make music for a living.

The names I heard come up most often was Ella Fitzgerald and Aretha Franklin. We did the tours for Aretha and have some great road stories and she was highly regarded by all. Based on your criteria I think they fit the bill fairly well.

Last I heard Aretha was quite ill, must be getting up there in years by now I imagine.

If you are not near the water and boat shops, all busses have them. Fork lifts have them as well.

This is a Bangkok service but I bet they would know the Chiang Mai suppliers.

Recently went to the Los Angeles consulate and was informed that all Thai embassies have been instructed to stop issuing multi entry non imm B visas. They are to issue single entry and let immigrations in Bangkok issue permit to reenter.

I know from experience that unrelated donors are perfectly acceptable in the US. Not only that, but over the years I have counseled numerous people who were blind donors, willing to give a kidney to someone they did not know previously. It is illegal to accept money for an organ donation in the US and the hospitals are very vigilant to see this is not violated. So the short and easy answer to your question is that the procedure is legal, available and well advanced in numerous US hospitals which will allow non related donors within legal and ethical guidelines.

I dont know for sure, but usually Canada has pretty similar ethical regulations for medical service so they would be a candidate as well. I also know that Mexico and Philippines are often considered but the trafficking that caused Thailand such grief is probably endemic in those countries as well.

If you have any questions on the US process, feel free to PM me.

We do that at my company. Import a variety of things for our manufacturing process from a variety of countries.

You can draw back Customs duties and exports are exempt from VAT which you can also draw back. Thats what the law states anyway.

With meticulous record keeping and keeping everything above board, my experience over the years is that you get about 70 percent back over time. Generally, they keep my money for up to a year.

Tax offices are local, be very very careful where you locate your business. For example, Bang Khen was a pleasure to deal with and we generally got back 100% of VAT draw back while Wang Thong Lang is all but impossible. We get back less than 10 percent what is owed us from that office.

When dealing with Customs, just consider it a cost of goods sold, the return rate is sporadic and you occasionally have to bribe them just to do their job. At best its a complete write off. If its anything of value, often it just wont make it through....

First Mac o mine was an Apple IIe in about 1978 or thereabouts. Always had the terrible habit of bringing my Mac into the companies I worked for in the 80s and eventually there was always a line to use it, particular for anything that required graphics.

Three years ago my company had seven windows computers and I found myself spending about one to two hours average getting them working every morning. One had a virus or crashed or could not get online or could not access the LAN or or or or or.

So I did what I have done for years and brought in a single Mac, next thing I know I have my workers lined up to use it every day and the window machines are gathering dust.

Last year I replaced the whole lot of windows machines with all Apple. Set up consisted of taking them out of the box and plugging them in. Now I have internet, central backup, LAN access, no crashes, no hits, no errors, and maybe best of all, no viruses.

You cant imagine how nice it is after struggling with Windows for so many years to have computers that simply work.

If you are a gamer, buy a PS3 or a Wii or some other incredible game machine. If you have some very special proprietary program from corporate headquarters or your company has a computer geek that will straighten out your windows for free, well they are fine in that case. I gave them a good 10,000 hours of pure frustration and occasional rage over the last twenty years and thats enough for me.

Same same but different.

I got the pin number on August 6 and started checking two or three times every day.

The first time I got green dates was August 30 and I booked the first available interview for October 26.

So that would be almost three months between pin and interview.

I harassed them too after a few weeks, no luck with that program.

My advice, sit tight and check it often.

There is a rental shop on Thong Lor that will let you rent a Phantom for a few days. PM me for contact information.

I wrote about this a few years back, we are seeing the results of decisions made years ago in the Japanese board rooms. Its a big deal to move an automotive manufacturing facility and usually only done under the most extreme circumstances. This has a lot more to do with political instability, currency strength, and support systems than anything else. Watch for much more of this over the next few years, Toyota is a sort of bellwether, usually a few steps ahead of the pack.

Glad I am not a politician having to deal with the mentalities of some of these posters.

The US has no position on this matter. It is strictly and entirely an internal Thai affair. They are not taking sides, they do not have a position, they have made every effort to remain out of Thai affairs.

What they are doing is trying to provide a forum for the two parties to meet and talk. Nothing is going to happen until they start talking. Just finding a venue that both parties can agree on is about impossible. The breakfast meeting was an opportunity for both parties to sit down and negotiate. They would not have set up the meeting without everyone agreeing to come, the fact that one side did not show up and then condemned the effort gives some idea how disorganized and chaotic the whole process is.

I believe the US has come out against the use of force or violence by any and all people involved. That is probably the closest thing to a position that any politician from foreign governments have expressed regarding this matter.

So be careful of the propaganda being spouted by both sides and leave the bashing to places where the US is deserving, and there are enough of those to keep the bloggers busy.

The US Embassy held a town hall meeting today to update American citizens in Thailand on the current situation.

While mostly a rehash of information that can be found in news sites or in warden messages there were a few good points that should probably be written here for those who were unable to attend.

The single strongest point they made is to stay the heck out of the areas of confrontation. We don't belong there and it makes no sense to put ourselves in harm way. I for one will admit that having been in Thailand for so long I was half tempted to go have a look. Despite all these warnings, every time there is a photo or video footage, in the background is some westerner in shorts, flip flops and an open beer. The embassy is right, we need to avoid those areas for the duration.

We should put together a 72 hour kit in case we need to "hunker" down for a few days. Include food, drinking water, and anything else you might need to lock down and stay put for 72 ours. For some us that probably means six packs of cigarettes and for the Aussies, around twenty cases of beer. Include a flashlight, portable radio and it would be good sense to have a rudimentary first aid kit. It would be prudent to have such a 72 hour kit in both our business and home because in the event we do have to hunker down we might not be able to choose our location.

If we encounter problems on the street, the natural tendency is to push our way through and try to get home. If things erupt or there are warning signs, turn around and get back to safety. That is hard to do, like turning into a skid on ice, but if you really take this advice it could save your life.

The last point was very important. If something is going on outside, loud noises, bombs, whatever. DO NOT go to the window or the balcony to see what is happening. This might be the hardest but most important advice to remember. If you go to a window or the balcony, any future blasts will break windows and broken glass is a leading cause of death in explosions. INSTEAD, if there is something going on outside, head inside to a room with no windows. That is very unnatural thing to do but could save your life. Reminds me of when you see the ocean go out and see the ocean floor, do not run down there with the other 99% of the people, instead turn around and run for the hills. Forewarned is forearmed.

Ambassador Eric John did a great job fielding questions, most of which were either irrelevant or inane. I was very very impressed with his communication and good graces. I for one, really appreciate their efforts to keep us informed.

How bout an update from our Elites. This has gotten very quiet, should we assume that the program is same same but different?

I think you are right in the fact that tourism has a greater impact in employment than manufacturing and this has been studied. My recollection though, is that the impact is not as great as we assume. I dont remember the exact numbers but its something like for 7% of the GDP it employs some 9% of the work force. In addition, they do their best to capture the periphery employment but with all aggregate data its a little sketchy, particularly in Thailand where data collection is suspect to begin with.

One of the problems with tourism is that it is so visible to anecdotal observation, it is easily seen, takes up a huge amount of room, and advertises heavily. Manufacturing on the other hand, is hidden away and seldom if ever seen. One small manufacturing facility with 100 or so workers is able to bring in far more revenue than 50 bar beers with 500 workers. That usually raises the question of does the revenue stay in Thailand with the factory because we know it mostly does with the bar beers. Those are the kind of questions that economists love to debate at great length and which seem to me rather pointless. All the economic data is more abysmal science and I think the numbers should be taken as generalities and not facts. The trends seem more important than the status and for now the trend on the thai baht is to continue strengthening until something gives.

Let me throw out some current thinking and see if any of it makes sense regarding a strong baht.

It seems like wealth, real GDP growth and per capita income, relies heavily on exports. Countries like China and Brazil are growing like gang busters while countries that are net importers like the US are gradually reducing their standard of living. Before you argue about the dominance of exports and trade balances, I think exports are more an indicator than the actual causal factor. Having a surplus of exports mean that you are competitive on the world market and by extension the local market. There are many things involved. Education, political stability, infrastructure, supportive government, geography to name but a few. In my opinion, perhaps one of the most important factor in the mix is currency.

Lets start with the problems in Greece. For the past few thousand years Greece has been able to collapse their currency as required to compete in the world market. While it creates higher costs for money (higher risks) it kept their shipping and tourism industries afloat when necessary. Being tied into the Euro took away all the flexibility that deflating a currency provides. Soon enough, their fiscal policies and structural inefficiencies became unmanageable with no other viable options than default (unless of course uncle Germany decides they need to contribute).

China of course, is extremely cagey locking the remimbe to the US dollar. As America tries to deflate itself back into the competition the Chinese stay right in lockstep, not giving an inch. Why do you think everyone is constantly puking blood over this policy. Its an ugly game of chicken in which either the Chinese will completely dominate or everyone will lose. If you dont think American deflation is good for exports a brief look at the financial statements of Airbus and Boeing give an insightful look at what is happening across Europe as the Euro remains so powerful.

The effects of currency take a long time to kick in. Airbus is just now making plans to leave Europe after many years of terrible suffering from the strong Euro. Given another ten or fifteen years of a strong Euro against the dollar/remimbe and things could get serious.

So when I think about Thailands baht, I mostly think of exports. Since this economy is mostly made up of exports, around 60 or so percent depending on who you ask, and slightly made up of tourism, the relative strength of the baht is of fundamental importance in the long term prosperity of the country.

The big exporters are easy to generalize if not precisely accurate. Germany is extreme engineering, precision, solid quality. Japan is the relentless pursuit of perfection, extreme efficiency, attention to detail, customer orientation. America is innovation, infra structure, geography. Brazil is climate, policies, and geography. While you might have different definitions for these powerful exporters, we can agree that China is cheap cheap labor and little to no structural overhead. As long as the remimbe continues its downward spiral in lock step with the dollar, no one is going to cut into their market with the exception that India could give a go at it if they ever got their act together.

So what does Thailand have to offer the world markets. If you clearly understand that a society cannot get wealthy on internal services, in other words if everyone in Thailand were masseurs they could not rub each other into prosperity, and that we must export our way to prosperity, what exactly do we have to offer. (lets consider tourism a form of exports for this overly simple discussion, it does bring money into the economy from the outside).

Well, we do have a strong opportunity with tourism. Beautiful beaches, friendly people, adequate infrastructure, and location. Lots of economies are based entirely on tourism. Bali and cambodia to name two. Heavily dependent include greece, Monte Carlo, the entire carribean island group, and on and on. Could it possibly be enough to sustain Thailand? I dont think so and what would be required to grow the industry to that level. If I were to guess, it would have to be price and that is a direct result of currency. As our currency gains against the currency of other tourist destinations without significant other factors we will suffer an overall decline in tourism. Unfortunately our political instability has facilitated the decline as well.

So exports remain the single most important economic driver in Thailand. Ask yourself what Thailand produces that is competitive world wide and you do find lots of things. Food, jewelry, furniture, sewn goods, and on and on. While there are some things that are somewhat unique, i.e. rubber, rice, shrimp and the like, most of those items are dictated by world commodity markets and a stronger baht only means less profit for producers, often to the point that the government has been forced to heavily subsidize those markets to keep them intact. For the rest of the exports, what Thailand offers is cheap labor. So who is the cheap labor competitor? You got it, our neighbor to the north (Vietnam has entered the stage as well over the past few years). Our strong currency has been closing manufacturing here for the past few years and moving it north in the search for ever cheaper labor. It will take time, but it will happen.

So it doesnt really matter if the baht is strong to the dollar or the pound. They are only buyers. Its deadly serious that the baht is strong to the remimbe and dong. Those boys are competitors and given such a huge pricing advantage are going to take us to the cleaners. You can add the won and taiwan dollar to the mix but they have their sights set more on Japan and going from a cheap labor economy to a technology orientated economy (and quite successfully I might add).

Like I said, this stuff takes years and years to take effect. Other factors will come into play that will change the equation. For example, should China red finally decide to swallow China green, all bets are off. That competitor would evaporate should that happen and Thailand could explode with business over night at any exchange rate.

So, in my opinion, on the world market where it matters, the thai baht is grossly over valued and if it remains that way for many years will cause serious damage to the GDP and per capita income of Thailand unless we can innovate our way into new markets that are not dependent on cheap labor. I see that as less a probability than a baht devaluation.

Nothing pessimistic about any of this, just trying to look at it as hard as Toyota does when planning a new plant.