xbusman

These real estate topics always wander off track. The OP asked if this is the right time or not, not if they should buy.

Every investment has its proponents (usually salesmen) and naysayers (usually the broke) and real estate here is no different.

We have to assume that for question, the poster has already decided to invest and has made the decision according to their needs and abilities.

Considering he has made the only legal choice (a condo) we can safely discuss the timing as it is imprudent of anyone to discuss timing or return of any illegal activity inside our host country on a public forum.

So stop, consider and using our experience thoughtfully recommend to him what you feel would be the best timing on his upcoming purchase.

To get this back on track, I am going to recommend that he proceed at his convenience and not delay for hope of better opportunities. The reasons being:

1. We cannot time markets. Particularly when discussing markets that we are not an expert, are very obscure and have no discernible structure.

2. I have generally found in life that the time and effort to find a deal often saved far less money than my time was worth. Despite knowing that, I continue to make this mistake almost daily. A perfect example is the process I am going through to buy a truck. The market has collapsed, there are used trucks everywhere which have been sitting forever. Despite this, in my opinion, the prices are completely unrealistic. Everyone assures me that this is how the market works, that resale is almost what new is. My business sense tells me this is a complete farce and someday the piper will be paid. So for a year, I have been looking everywhere, spending a hour or two every week for "that deal". I might find it, in fact, I expect to find it soon because I dont believe the market can take many more used trucks, the lots are just not big enough. In the end, I might be right but to save 100k baht I will have spent at least 100 hours looking around. When I look at that way, I earned 1000 baht per hour working on buying a truck. Is that worth it? Thats 100 hours of not playing golf, not growing my business, not being productive. AND in the year or so I spend looking, I am still on a motorcycle in the rain. How much sense is that? Yet its so ingrained that we often miss the forest for the trees.

3. Whats it worth for Mom's peace of mind. I know a lot of moms and they like to worry, its their job and hard wired into them, they are good at it. Regards a real estate purchase, how much savings is worth having your mom worry and move twice?

As an opinion on what the OP asked, I say get on with it in due form and delay not.

Save the real estate investment discussion for the people who enjoy the controversy regarding questions with no answers.

Sorry, wrong reply.... Pretend I am not here and carry on as before.....

I think it is fairly easy to guess why tourism numbers have become a state secret.

Great post poldebal, balanced and reasoned, nicely done!

You are correct, nowhere in the above post did I say not to buy. That decision is up to each persons situation and desires.

What I did say was if you fit the profile, and you seem to, don't try to time the market. Just buy when you find the right thing.

If my response got you confused and you had trouble understanding what was being said, be sure to get professional advice from a lawyer before buying property in Thailand.

Best of luck.

You ask a tough question that has a lot of possible answers depending on your situation.

Here are the facts.

First rule of Thailand, NEVER INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN WALK AWAY FROM

I think you fit that rule, you seem to be talking about chump change out of your budget. If this is indeed the case then you need to consider the following.

The rent/purchase ratio and per capita income is way out of whack. At best, its a lousy investment and there are many better things to do with your money than waste it on property in Thailand. However, disposable income is not subject to investment requirements. Driving a Bentley instead of an Accord is a perfect example. So if its disposable money and you feel better owning a condo in Bangkok instead of a Bentley in your garage wherever, have at it. At worst, you are investing into the top of a massive real estate bubble that will evaporate your investment for many years to come. Again, hardly a matter when we are talking about the loose change from your sock drawer.

Trying to time any market is difficult, even for the experts. I think I read once in Motley Fool where all the mutual funds managed by the best and brightest were only able to beat index funds about 10% of the time, and then not consistently. Their opinion, and I agree with it, is to not try and guess timing, particularly in markets that we are not expert, are obscure and opaque in their operation, which property is in Thailand. Now is as good as time as any to throw your money away on a consumable that you never expect a return on and have no reason to want to recoup other than fortunate happenstance.

Best of luck.

Lets pin this in the newbie section. The only problems here is that they broke the law of Thailand:

NEVER INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN WALK AWAY FROM

AND

Be smart enough to know when to walk........

Best I have found so far is at Landmark cafe. On a scale of 1 to 10 with Cantors being a 8 the Landmark puts out a respectable 6 which is about as high as a rueban could hopefully attain in an Asian Buddhist society.

Links wont help me here, we have spent the last two weeks calling every company that even remotely is mentioned on the web. Out of the maybe 50 companies, about 30 are out of business, maybe 15 lied about the products they carry, one or two are simply traders and quoted a bizarre price in the hope of finding a fool, and we found two compounders that have a product that while it works, is not really ideal. Since I have to buy 30 tons every year over the next five years, I should be able to pretty much get what I want. Since I dont require chemical properties, only physical properties, I can get rid of some waste that probably cant be used in any other manner, thereby doing a nice green thing.

Links wont help, sorry.

We called Wongpanit three times and was finally told they dont do PVC. The desk promised to get someone who knew what the company did call us back, that was two weeks ago. Sometimes I dont know what to do about those kind of Thai suppliers unless I get in the car, drive to the headquarters and act like "one of those odd farangs".

I was really hoping to work with this company, really high on the green list and providing a lot of employment in the northern part of the country but I have production to run and cant wait for them to figure out what to do about an inquiry.

Well, I finally get to be green and found a good use for off spec PVC regrind to be used in an export product. Problem is that Thailand does not have a directory for the plastic recycle shops. Anyone know of a plastics recycling facility that might have PVC for sale?

I drove a sidecar rig for years, a 1952 Zundapp with Steib sidecar. They take a lot of getting used to and are in fact quite dangerous. Probably the most common offense is that motorcycles are not really designed for the added weight. There is a real tendency to overdrive the brakes. Thankfully adding a side cafe to a 110cc rocket limits the top end to about 4KMH as best I can tell. That probably keeps a lot of fried grasshopper vendors alive.

Great company! We need about 200 of that sized bike every week. Our Chinese manufacturers cant keep up and those chinese bikes are junk in motion. So... I was told to contact JRD and set them up as a supplier. It has been a real education on just how bad a company can be. After dozens and dozens of calls, we have been continually hung up on, failed to answer phone or simply told to go away. Its the slamming down the phone that so impresses me with just how bad a company can be run. At least the Thailand office tells us we can talk to no one and that no one will return our call, ever, in a most agreeable and pleasant manner.

I could almost understand it if they had a superior product and could not keep up with orders but anyone who has seen a JRD should know better than that....

Amazing Malaysia.

They are desperate to keep the baht artificially strong against the dollar. A strong currency reduces the cost of imports (oil included) and impacts inflation at home. A strong currency might kill the exports, has not seemed to have a dramatic effect...yet.... but they are far past worrying about GDP. This is about exactly where they were in 1997, working hard to support a currency against the world market. Could get interesting.

I used to buy it at the little drugstore next to Bullys between the Marriott and Soi 4.

Based on the scant info above, its a grey market import and the books is probably as crooked as a dogs hind leg. There could be any number of problems, including but not limited to:

The book being a crude forgery easily identified by the Transport people as being invalid.

Numbers on the frame being changed to hide the highly probable fact that the bike is stolen.

Modifying a book from another similar bike which makes for the mismatch in other details.

I would guess that the root problem is a dicey book for a dicey bike. Nothing that 20 or 30,000 baht cant fix.

Same same.

Chris, here is the story.

Forget it.

Okay, because I are a nice guy, here is the inside scoop on visas to the US.

You are in essence presenting a case to an arbitrator or more accurately a judge. The state department employee who reviews the case is in fact a judge of sorts and has for all extent and purposes the final word.

So you need to know as much about that person as possible.

First, there is almost no internal control on immigration in the US, all enforcement takes place at the border. Once an alien enters the country, they are virtually unhampered in living and working in the US. Millions of people every year attempt to enter the country illegally and remain, some indefinitely. There is also the added wierdness in the US whereas a child born on US soil becomes a US citizen. So now they have the untenable position of citizen children with illegal immigrant parents. In all, its a real mess and the state department has been given a specific overriding imperative to make absolutely certain beyond any reasonable doubt that the applicant will return to their home country.

The visa "judges" are associated with the visas they grant. They are periodically reviewed and roasted regarding tourists who fail to exit the country. Their very job depends on their ability to keep people from illegally immigrating to the US.

So you need to understand that they are entirely and completely fixated on this fact and each applicant is under pressure to prove beyond any doubt that they will return to their home country.

Lots of "supporting" data can be used. Bank accounts, homes, cars all sorts of things. BUT, put yourself in the position of an interviewer. Would 100,000 baht in a Thai bank mean they would return? Thats about three weeks wages for a US nurse. Could money in a bank account be taken out and carried? Would 1 million do it? If you were from Mexico, you could save 1 Million baht while working in MacDonalds and living with your uncle in slightly less than two years and still have your original 1 Million baht (or equivalent) in the bank. If you look at it, none of these things are "compelling" reasons to return to the home country. Homes can be rented out, bank accounts can be wired, no physical possession actually proves that someone will return.

The biggest mistake is to show how connected to people in the US the applicant is. That means they have support structure and a greater probability of being able to stay.

I have gotten about 15 tourist visas for the US. Some of them for people with no funds, no education, no possessions, nothing. All because I was able to prove beyond any reasonable doubt that the applicant would return to Thailand after the specific trip without fail.

To do the same, put yourself in the interviewers position and create a case that is rock solid.

Despite what is generally thought, they truly do want to give visas if they can be certain.

For me, feed corn is fine.

Any idea what the hill tribe folks are charging per kilo? I am wondering if its worth sending a truck up for.

Thanks

I am getting quoted from 10.50 baht for bulk to 15 baht from CP, dried and bagged.

Anyone know some farmers wanting to sell?

You would have to pry my cold dead fingers from around my iphone. I would like the GPS model that was just released but its 3G, I think its going to be a while before Thailand catches up.

personally - wheels on suitcases and super low jeans

professionally - internal combustion engine and electric light

culturally - scientific reasoning and mathematics

My first antique bike, a zundapp 650 I believe with steib sidecar. What a fine machine, caged needle bearings on every surface of the crank and piston, chain and sprocket gearbox, what a joy. I believe it was about 15 metric tons dry, felt like it anyway.

No problem if it fits in your carry on. If its a bit big, try one of those monster trash compactors to get it into about a 1 foot cube and that should do the trick.

Sheryl gave an excellent post.

There is a body of belief that is quite strong in the addiction community that one must hit rock bottom before any changes can come. That has been the generally accepted belief and quite well proven out long term with such help groups like alanon.

Over the past decade, there is a new controversial process termed intervention. In a nutshell (and there is lots of info on the net), they agree in principle with the concept of change from within and support but believe that the enablers can bring the crisis to a head in a controlled manner. To understand this, you have to see that a person can only sustain "problem" behavior if they have an enabler, someone who provides the environment and support to continue the problem behavior. When you find an addict, you need to search out that person that helps them get funds, bails them out of jail, and generally shields them from the consequences of their behavior.

There is a self righting mechanism for both enablers and addicts, as in the case of beentheredonethat, eventually the addiction either destroys both or the enabler stops the support. That is the first step toward the eventual traumatic event signifying rock bottom and the last great chance for the addict. In effect the point of no return, if they dont seek help there then if they are lucky they go to jail, if not....

Interventionists believe that before the traumatic event, the enablers can control the cessation of support with the offer of help. In essence, they believe that enablers do so out of misguided love and concern and instead of supporting destructive habits they need to actively support constructive help. Most enablers eventually shun the addict which leads to their crisis. In intervention, the enablers take a progressive stance to end their destructive support and create a network of constructive support.

In my way of thinking, even if unsuccessful it is obviously the most beneficial path.

First, the real problem is not with the addict, its with the enablers. The addict is sick, unable to clearly assess reality and in trouble. Behavioral change has to be easier and less traumatic with the enablers, they are rational and stable. Second, if you think about it, why would you support the destructive behavior of someone you care about, and that type of nurturing is intuitive, it takes a cold hard look to understand the consequences. Third, the only alternative to cut the addict loose when all the resources for any chance of helping are spent or exhausted. Better to try something that hardly helps than to do nothing at all.

So intervention really identifies the enablers, works on modifying the destructive tendencies of constructive people, and brings help to the addict prior to a traumatic crisis the addict may or may not survive.

Be advised. There has been a lot of study on intervention and they have learned a lot about it. It has a small chance of success and you can greatly improve the odds if you understand the requirements and procedure thoroughly. There is a lot of disagreement as well, such as if it should be planned and scheduled with the addict in advance. Professionals feel the success rate is small, like maybe 10% if carefully thought out, but still better than the alternatives.

I would advise becoming a self taught interventionist and putting the process together if you care about the person. You have to get all the enablers to sign on though, has to be unanimous or it will probably end up a waste of time. If you want more information just PM me, I have done numerous interventions and a few of them were successful, better than the 10% rate but then again I dont waste my time with the lost as professionals are required to do.

Best of luck, hope you dont give up. Every one brought back from the brink has to be good for the Kharma somewhere.