xbusman

I think it is fairly easy to guess why tourism numbers have become a state secret.

Great post poldebal, balanced and reasoned, nicely done!

You are correct, nowhere in the above post did I say not to buy. That decision is up to each persons situation and desires.

What I did say was if you fit the profile, and you seem to, don't try to time the market. Just buy when you find the right thing.

If my response got you confused and you had trouble understanding what was being said, be sure to get professional advice from a lawyer before buying property in Thailand.

Best of luck.

You ask a tough question that has a lot of possible answers depending on your situation.

Here are the facts.

First rule of Thailand, NEVER INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN WALK AWAY FROM

I think you fit that rule, you seem to be talking about chump change out of your budget. If this is indeed the case then you need to consider the following.

The rent/purchase ratio and per capita income is way out of whack. At best, its a lousy investment and there are many better things to do with your money than waste it on property in Thailand. However, disposable income is not subject to investment requirements. Driving a Bentley instead of an Accord is a perfect example. So if its disposable money and you feel better owning a condo in Bangkok instead of a Bentley in your garage wherever, have at it. At worst, you are investing into the top of a massive real estate bubble that will evaporate your investment for many years to come. Again, hardly a matter when we are talking about the loose change from your sock drawer.

Trying to time any market is difficult, even for the experts. I think I read once in Motley Fool where all the mutual funds managed by the best and brightest were only able to beat index funds about 10% of the time, and then not consistently. Their opinion, and I agree with it, is to not try and guess timing, particularly in markets that we are not expert, are obscure and opaque in their operation, which property is in Thailand. Now is as good as time as any to throw your money away on a consumable that you never expect a return on and have no reason to want to recoup other than fortunate happenstance.

Best of luck.

Lets pin this in the newbie section. The only problems here is that they broke the law of Thailand:

NEVER INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN WALK AWAY FROM

AND

Be smart enough to know when to walk........

Best I have found so far is at Landmark cafe. On a scale of 1 to 10 with Cantors being a 8 the Landmark puts out a respectable 6 which is about as high as a rueban could hopefully attain in an Asian Buddhist society.

Links wont help me here, we have spent the last two weeks calling every company that even remotely is mentioned on the web. Out of the maybe 50 companies, about 30 are out of business, maybe 15 lied about the products they carry, one or two are simply traders and quoted a bizarre price in the hope of finding a fool, and we found two compounders that have a product that while it works, is not really ideal. Since I have to buy 30 tons every year over the next five years, I should be able to pretty much get what I want. Since I dont require chemical properties, only physical properties, I can get rid of some waste that probably cant be used in any other manner, thereby doing a nice green thing.

Links wont help, sorry.

We called Wongpanit three times and was finally told they dont do PVC. The desk promised to get someone who knew what the company did call us back, that was two weeks ago. Sometimes I dont know what to do about those kind of Thai suppliers unless I get in the car, drive to the headquarters and act like "one of those odd farangs".

I was really hoping to work with this company, really high on the green list and providing a lot of employment in the northern part of the country but I have production to run and cant wait for them to figure out what to do about an inquiry.

Well, I finally get to be green and found a good use for off spec PVC regrind to be used in an export product. Problem is that Thailand does not have a directory for the plastic recycle shops. Anyone know of a plastics recycling facility that might have PVC for sale?

I drove a sidecar rig for years, a 1952 Zundapp with Steib sidecar. They take a lot of getting used to and are in fact quite dangerous. Probably the most common offense is that motorcycles are not really designed for the added weight. There is a real tendency to overdrive the brakes. Thankfully adding a side cafe to a 110cc rocket limits the top end to about 4KMH as best I can tell. That probably keeps a lot of fried grasshopper vendors alive.

Great company! We need about 200 of that sized bike every week. Our Chinese manufacturers cant keep up and those chinese bikes are junk in motion. So... I was told to contact JRD and set them up as a supplier. It has been a real education on just how bad a company can be. After dozens and dozens of calls, we have been continually hung up on, failed to answer phone or simply told to go away. Its the slamming down the phone that so impresses me with just how bad a company can be run. At least the Thailand office tells us we can talk to no one and that no one will return our call, ever, in a most agreeable and pleasant manner.

I could almost understand it if they had a superior product and could not keep up with orders but anyone who has seen a JRD should know better than that....

Amazing Malaysia.

They are desperate to keep the baht artificially strong against the dollar. A strong currency reduces the cost of imports (oil included) and impacts inflation at home. A strong currency might kill the exports, has not seemed to have a dramatic effect...yet.... but they are far past worrying about GDP. This is about exactly where they were in 1997, working hard to support a currency against the world market. Could get interesting.

I used to buy it at the little drugstore next to Bullys between the Marriott and Soi 4.

Based on the scant info above, its a grey market import and the books is probably as crooked as a dogs hind leg. There could be any number of problems, including but not limited to:

The book being a crude forgery easily identified by the Transport people as being invalid.

Numbers on the frame being changed to hide the highly probable fact that the bike is stolen.

Modifying a book from another similar bike which makes for the mismatch in other details.

I would guess that the root problem is a dicey book for a dicey bike. Nothing that 20 or 30,000 baht cant fix.

Same same.

Chris, here is the story.

Forget it.

Okay, because I are a nice guy, here is the inside scoop on visas to the US.

You are in essence presenting a case to an arbitrator or more accurately a judge. The state department employee who reviews the case is in fact a judge of sorts and has for all extent and purposes the final word.

So you need to know as much about that person as possible.

First, there is almost no internal control on immigration in the US, all enforcement takes place at the border. Once an alien enters the country, they are virtually unhampered in living and working in the US. Millions of people every year attempt to enter the country illegally and remain, some indefinitely. There is also the added wierdness in the US whereas a child born on US soil becomes a US citizen. So now they have the untenable position of citizen children with illegal immigrant parents. In all, its a real mess and the state department has been given a specific overriding imperative to make absolutely certain beyond any reasonable doubt that the applicant will return to their home country.

The visa "judges" are associated with the visas they grant. They are periodically reviewed and roasted regarding tourists who fail to exit the country. Their very job depends on their ability to keep people from illegally immigrating to the US.

So you need to understand that they are entirely and completely fixated on this fact and each applicant is under pressure to prove beyond any doubt that they will return to their home country.

Lots of "supporting" data can be used. Bank accounts, homes, cars all sorts of things. BUT, put yourself in the position of an interviewer. Would 100,000 baht in a Thai bank mean they would return? Thats about three weeks wages for a US nurse. Could money in a bank account be taken out and carried? Would 1 million do it? If you were from Mexico, you could save 1 Million baht while working in MacDonalds and living with your uncle in slightly less than two years and still have your original 1 Million baht (or equivalent) in the bank. If you look at it, none of these things are "compelling" reasons to return to the home country. Homes can be rented out, bank accounts can be wired, no physical possession actually proves that someone will return.

The biggest mistake is to show how connected to people in the US the applicant is. That means they have support structure and a greater probability of being able to stay.

I have gotten about 15 tourist visas for the US. Some of them for people with no funds, no education, no possessions, nothing. All because I was able to prove beyond any reasonable doubt that the applicant would return to Thailand after the specific trip without fail.

To do the same, put yourself in the interviewers position and create a case that is rock solid.

Despite what is generally thought, they truly do want to give visas if they can be certain.

For me, feed corn is fine.

Any idea what the hill tribe folks are charging per kilo? I am wondering if its worth sending a truck up for.

Thanks

I am getting quoted from 10.50 baht for bulk to 15 baht from CP, dried and bagged.

Anyone know some farmers wanting to sell?

You would have to pry my cold dead fingers from around my iphone. I would like the GPS model that was just released but its 3G, I think its going to be a while before Thailand catches up.

personally - wheels on suitcases and super low jeans

professionally - internal combustion engine and electric light

culturally - scientific reasoning and mathematics

My first antique bike, a zundapp 650 I believe with steib sidecar. What a fine machine, caged needle bearings on every surface of the crank and piston, chain and sprocket gearbox, what a joy. I believe it was about 15 metric tons dry, felt like it anyway.

No problem if it fits in your carry on. If its a bit big, try one of those monster trash compactors to get it into about a 1 foot cube and that should do the trick.

Sheryl gave an excellent post.

There is a body of belief that is quite strong in the addiction community that one must hit rock bottom before any changes can come. That has been the generally accepted belief and quite well proven out long term with such help groups like alanon.

Over the past decade, there is a new controversial process termed intervention. In a nutshell (and there is lots of info on the net), they agree in principle with the concept of change from within and support but believe that the enablers can bring the crisis to a head in a controlled manner. To understand this, you have to see that a person can only sustain "problem" behavior if they have an enabler, someone who provides the environment and support to continue the problem behavior. When you find an addict, you need to search out that person that helps them get funds, bails them out of jail, and generally shields them from the consequences of their behavior.

There is a self righting mechanism for both enablers and addicts, as in the case of beentheredonethat, eventually the addiction either destroys both or the enabler stops the support. That is the first step toward the eventual traumatic event signifying rock bottom and the last great chance for the addict. In effect the point of no return, if they dont seek help there then if they are lucky they go to jail, if not....

Interventionists believe that before the traumatic event, the enablers can control the cessation of support with the offer of help. In essence, they believe that enablers do so out of misguided love and concern and instead of supporting destructive habits they need to actively support constructive help. Most enablers eventually shun the addict which leads to their crisis. In intervention, the enablers take a progressive stance to end their destructive support and create a network of constructive support.

In my way of thinking, even if unsuccessful it is obviously the most beneficial path.

First, the real problem is not with the addict, its with the enablers. The addict is sick, unable to clearly assess reality and in trouble. Behavioral change has to be easier and less traumatic with the enablers, they are rational and stable. Second, if you think about it, why would you support the destructive behavior of someone you care about, and that type of nurturing is intuitive, it takes a cold hard look to understand the consequences. Third, the only alternative to cut the addict loose when all the resources for any chance of helping are spent or exhausted. Better to try something that hardly helps than to do nothing at all.

So intervention really identifies the enablers, works on modifying the destructive tendencies of constructive people, and brings help to the addict prior to a traumatic crisis the addict may or may not survive.

Be advised. There has been a lot of study on intervention and they have learned a lot about it. It has a small chance of success and you can greatly improve the odds if you understand the requirements and procedure thoroughly. There is a lot of disagreement as well, such as if it should be planned and scheduled with the addict in advance. Professionals feel the success rate is small, like maybe 10% if carefully thought out, but still better than the alternatives.

I would advise becoming a self taught interventionist and putting the process together if you care about the person. You have to get all the enablers to sign on though, has to be unanimous or it will probably end up a waste of time. If you want more information just PM me, I have done numerous interventions and a few of them were successful, better than the 10% rate but then again I dont waste my time with the lost as professionals are required to do.

Best of luck, hope you dont give up. Every one brought back from the brink has to be good for the Kharma somewhere.

Add the Phantom instead of including it under "choppery things". Having owned and sold innumerable motorcycles I consider this one of my favorites of all time. It does everything asked of it and more.

Interesting conversation, fascinating to see such diverse thought processes.

As one of the strongest proponents of the RULE... Never invest more in Thailand than you can walk away from. I feel called on to justify that position.

First, let me be very clear, its not really my position or something I came up with. In a past life, I used to be hired to go in a fix sick companies. Early on, it becomes pretty apparent that the transition from a healthy vibrant company into a sick company has to do with management. Duh.... So if you are under a gun, which we were, you go back to the last management that worked and LISTEN carefully. Successful old timers know the ropes, they know the market, they know how to make it work. They can also see easily and clearly what went wrong. They are not always right, or even clear, but with a little patience you can get a huge jump in the experience factor and reduce mistakes out of the gate.

So when I came to Thailand as a raw newbie, the old habit of learning the traps and tricks quickly caused me to search out old timers here. Honestly, anyone with less than ten years here and not completely fluent in Thai is not worth listening to, at best confusing, at worst plain wrong. One of the things that I heard from them over and over is "NEVER INVEST MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO WALK AWAY FROM". Almost every one of them let slip that jewel during my education.

It surprised me, like some here I wanted to argue with the premise. Over the years, I began to understand what they are alluding to. It has nothing to do with "investing in a condo" or "investing in a gogo bar" and everything to do with the rule of law and our status here. Our legal protections, our ability to protect ourselves and our interests.

There is the heart of the issue. Not only an investment of money, the investment of our time effort and heart.

Why? Over the years I have come to believe that there is no real rule of law here. No protection other than money and connections. No one goes to the police or courts for help or justice, if they do then they are sadly disappointed. As foreigners, we have even less protection than the Thais who enjoy slightly less than no protection.

There are a million examples, every day, every hour. If you want a few I remember off the top of my head there is poor Bill Monson who funded Thaksins first cellphone business and provided the equipment. After Thaksin simply stiffed him he tried for decades to bring the case to court. Poor Bill never got his day, Thaksin never showed up and the court refused to hear the case without a defendant. Last year the statute of limitations ran out and our multimillionaire buddy learned the RULE the hard way.

Or the poor monk that bought the land in front of his temple for 10 million baht only to find out the lady who managed it and the Land Department employees (her daughter) who gave him the clear deed docs were bogus.

We could go on with these horror stories for months. Is it us? No, none of the erudite posters on Thaivisa. But..... Think about investing in any third world country without the rule of law. With no protections, theft and fraud rule the day. Would you invest in Nigeria? No, why not? Then why would Thailand be any safer? Because the generals have nicer uniforms?

No, as westerners we assume rights and protections that don't exist anywhere except in the west and a few countries that got the hang of it. That assumption is deadly and can culminate on a high balcony in Pattaya if we are not forewarned.

The beauty of the RULE is that it fits all of us. Those with money to smoke are fully justified in investing whatever they want, and a few are very successful in that endeavor. If I were to guess, the probabilities are that fewer are successful here than in their home country where they know all the rules and have the contacts, but thats just a guess.

I think (now) that common sense should tell us to be careful. Its a different culture, a different way of doing things. At best we are a guest here at the whim of bureaucrat somewhere. That could change momentarily as most things here do, and seldom for the better.

In my way of thinking, these style of boards are for the dissemination of experience and practical wisdom. People here have helped me do everything from get a drivers license to importing motorcycles on a pretty large scale. The least we can do is pass some of our experience on to newbies reading this board. Would anyone here with good conscience tell the new immigrant to bring and invest everything here. I doubt it. At best we might tell them Jai Yen, get the lay of the land, learn your limitations before burning bridges. To do otherwise is in my opinion highly disingenuous.

I believe it is a RULE, and it applies to any place that is ruled with corruption or brute force. I have a tendency to lose in those battles when faced with those parameters, I think most of the people reading this are in the same boat. So, Russia or Nigeria, Indonesia or Thailand, China or Saudi Arabia, that rule helps us remember that we are not natives and without even the most basic of rights and legal protection. We are instead at the mercy of a chaotic and violent society and should act with extreme diligence. Its still a lovely place to live, just be extra aware and vigilant because even the simplest assumptions can cause us great distress (such as looking left when stepping off a curb).

Argue all you want, hide from the reality if it makes your world more comfortable, but dont do a disservice to those naive and fresh off the boat.