jayboy

Yes, I know it was a counter-coup with Yeltsin.

But the coup started the ball rolling, and made the Soviets fall, and everyone cheered.

Huh?

Following this analogy in Thailand the military goons who launched the 2006 coup set the ball rolling for the rise of popular democracy under the PTP banner.Probably not what you meant.Best to admit a silly mistake, and move on.

I didn't say Buy His Way Through did I?

There are ways and there are ways,

most cost money, like serious tutoring at exam time,

but don't involve bribing the teachers or dean.

Endowments of huge amounts sometimes... Like a new school for a subject

do help turn a D into a C, or 'encourage' the professor 'putting in extra time to help a student'...

And most certainly Oxford flunks out students every year for non-performance.

Again not as easily to skid through compared to 'can't let the family lose face' Thailand.

Let's consider young Oak at Oxford, for instance... well, let's not waste of time.

1.Oxford flunks out one of the lowest proportions in the world because entry standards are so stiff.In essence if you get in and don't freak out, you will graduate.

2.Daddy's endowments make no difference to entry or pass grades.It's Oxford not a crappy third rate place

3.College tutors provide intensive support, and don't need to be bribed.

PT has a whisper campaign?

Looks to be the Dems, as the opinion piece above from the Dems newspaper; The Nation, is an example of.

The Nation editorial piece is broadly correct, namely that the military has no record of interfering with the balloting process.Indeed despite intimidation and threats, I do not believe it would be possible for it to do so to any significant degree.The concern is what it would do after the election if the Thai people produce a result it finds unsatisfactory.

I also think back to Yeltzin on that tank

and the world cheering as the Soviets fell, via a coup.

or

in 1989 - The reign of Romanian president Nicolae Ceausescu was ended with an uprising

Surprisingly enough the Thai coup makers here, successful and unsuccessful, have typically been treated with much leniency, with a very few exceptions. And THAT message has been passed on for generations....

Schoolboy howler here.It was Yeltsin who faced up to the attempted coup makers (old style communists), not the other way round.

Ceauescu's fate should be a warning to some in the old elite.

The fate of coupmakers in Thailand depends whether they are backed by the old elite or not.In the case of the last coup, orchestrated and planned (allegedly my lawyers instruct me to say) by persons of influence, the criminals involved were allowed to pardon themselves.In the case of an attempt not backed by the amart (eg General (not very) Chalard in the mid 1970's) they faced the firing squad.

Sure a rich idiot in UK can skid through Oxford if the family has enough cash. t as easily as the average Thai through Ramkamhaeng or Mahidol of course.

This is a view quite commonly held but nevertheless erroneous.It is not possible to buy one's way into Oxford or Cambridge, nor are rich students given preference.In fact most Oxbridge colleges have a positive discrimination policy in operation favouring state educated and economically disadvantaged applicants.The common misunderstanding is that Oxbridge wants to attract the posh and privileged.Totally wrong:it wants to attract the sharpest minds from all backgrounds.

Having said that I don't disagree with the main thrust of your post.

I may be wrong, (and I admit that Thai politics can frequently defy Western logic), but I can see three scenarios that could lead to post-election violence:

1. PT fails to win the largest number of seats: The Redshirts would be out in a flash, claiming electoral fraud.

They've already covered that in April....

From The Nation:

...

The Pheu Thai Party added to their confidence that the only reason it would not win the next election could be only because the government has already orchestrated a plan to cheat in the next poll in order to topple the Pheu Thai Party....

If we don't win the government must have cheated. Right. Orchestrated plan, correct. Didn't Robert A. write something similar in his report. Keep repeating it, one day there may be people who even believe it.

Like "Less than one year ago, the military-backed regime, headed up by United Kingdom citizen Mark Abhisit Vejjajiva, oversaw the murder of some 91 protesters in order to avoid an early election it feared it might lose.". Enlightening, care for one more? "A full year has passed since Thailand's British-born Prime Minister, Mark Abhisit, sent his soldiers and snipers to Kok Wua to kill you, in an attempt to silence your calls for democracy."

Read all on the website dedicated to sound bites and 'no need to prove, everyone knowns' ( http://robertamsterdam.com/thailand/ )

It's actually the case that it's very difficult to "fix" elections in Thailand.Of course there are irregularities - vote buying, intimidation by the military etc - but this doesn't seem to have affected the overall result over the years.On this occasion there will be plenty of monitors but to give the Thais credit I don't think that external observers are needed to guarantee the process.However much the redshirts complain about the system, the fact is that whoever wins the largest number of seats has a genuine mandate.So if hypothetically the redshirts (or anyone else) claims electoral fraud they should not be given the time of day.

The fact also is that Noppadon is quite right.If all parties abide by the poll result there will not be chaos.The issue is not irregularities at the polling stations but the actions taken by those who simply refuse to accept the nation's verdict.The same criteria apply to the redshirts and the unelected ruling elite.

In my opinion (I've only been here since 1979) the above comment is so completely one-sided and so full of half-truths as to almost not be worth replying to. BTW I was the author of the letter in the Post which described said negotiations re early elections which Thaksin rejected. Can I prove it? No. Does everyone know it? Yes - but a lot of people deny it. Why? Go figure.

Do read my post in context.It was in response to a post associating a list of very positive elements with the current government.I was simply suggesting there are some darker elements involved.

Length of time in Thailand is in itself for a foreigner no indication of wisdom or knowledge.I have been here on and off (mostly on) since 1973 as it happens.

I would not be too boastful if I was you about being a foreign letter writer to the Bangkok Post.

Margaret Thatcher started a war to guarantee her next election besides her other faults

Really? I was under the impression the fascist junta in Buenos Aires started the Falklands War.

I find that a little unexpected, do you have a source for it, please ? :jap:

One seems to have entered an irony free zone.

I agree with Jayboy. I really have nothing against Abhisit, except that he basically was a weak PM, who appeared to Kowtow to too many interests. Politicians have to do that, but without a clear mandate from the voters, he was in an unenviable position.

His greatest strength would have been in calling elections much sooner.

At this point he is not much different than any other politician; doing whatever he has to to hold on to power.

It may surprise some but I am broadly speaking a supporter of Abhisit.I just wish he had more of that most valuable political commodity - courage.

Which is the expected line they would pull when touring the Red Areas, in a bid to get more votes...

Good point.I suppose that's also why Democrats canvassing in Isaan are pressing for Thaksin to receive an amnesty.

BTW --- the people that cook my food -- don't vote for Thaksin .. neither does my driver .. I assume some that grow food do and some that grow my food don't. I don't know who built the house I live in so I can't suggest how they would vote, but having seen work crews up here I would suggest the owner of the construction company would vote BJT and that the laborers were ineligible to vote for the same reason I am. My driver, as a matter of fact will not vote PTP or NPP/Heaven and Earth --- he might vote Dem but says he hasn't decided. Even here in Chiang Mai it isn't a 100% Thaksin area and many people seem to think that if he comes back it will mean bad things will happen. Jurgen parroting the PAD (with the opposite take) really makes you wonder how important democracy ever will be in Thailand in the very same way that the vote-buying and graft makes you wonder.

Always good to have first hand information from Thai Visa members.From this post we learn that Chiangmai is not in fact a PTP stronghold even though one would like to know how he knows the political preferences of those who cook his food.

he needs to promote himself in a farang menu style

he should show pictures of what he has done, school uniforms, money to old folks, rice subdsidies, more teachers, fighting loan sharks etc

he should also show pictures of what the reds have done

burning buildings, stopping trains, invading hotels, hospitals, bullying people etc

show the people in pictures what the parties are about so they can choose from the menu which party they find more palatable..............

Yes that would do it and would prevent the Thai people making a terrible mistake.More childish propaganda should swing it.Somehow they have unaccountably got the wrong images in their mind...an interfering and corrupt military, an illegal coup, a puppet Prime Minister led to power, flirtation with quasi fascist groups like the PAD, unarmed civilians murdered on the streets of Bangkok, intolerable arrogance of urban elite, racial slurs, feudalist interference in democracy, courts "directed" to certain decisions, political vendettas using the court system, a rigged constitution, an incompetent junta.How could they have got it so wrong?I hope they come to their senses before election day.

Your point was that my description of just how much of a knife's edge the capital was at last year was "piffle" and that you believe the Thai people will share that view and that will be proved by Bangkokians voting for PTP.

And my response to that was just because someone might vote for PTP, doesn't necessarily mean they don't agree that Bangkok was on the brink last year. It was - in my opinion.

If that was really your point I don't really have a problem with it.

The anti-narcotics unit falls under the army. It's charged with 'anti-narcotics' activities which may be anywhere in the country. With certain raids, stings, etc. they co-operate with the local police. Drug suppression has been made a higher priority since begin of this year.

You may be right that in other countries like in the West things are differently organized, but that's not really relevant. Thailand may evolve and adjust to be more in line with Western government organisation form and structure, but there no requirement or force to do so.

The fact that the army has an involvement in domestic anti-narcotics activity is sheer lunacy.It makes no sense and no comparable country in Asia does this.

It has nothing to do with what is practiced in the West, the usual rejoinder when some appalling Thai practice is criticised.

The great irony is that the Thai army has a shocking history of being involved in the distribution of hard drugs.

Take a look at Wikipedia entry for King Juan Carlos of Spain.

Franco died in November 1975. Juan Carlos was king almost immediately. He intervened strongly in 1981 when the army attempted a coup. Juan Carlos's intervention to protect the democratic will (as expressed in the elections...Socialist Felipe Gonzalez elected) cemented the role of the monarchy in Spain to this day.

So, hundreds of years? No, in Spain it took only 6.

A change from a dictatorship, on the death of the dictator, to a constitutional monarchy, in a country surrounded by democratic countries is not a very good comparison to Thailand.

Admittedly, nowhere is a particularly good comparison with Thailand, but I was responding to the question of what happens when a country without much experience of parliamentary democracy is suddenly subjected to a coup attempt by the army (as has happened on all too many occasions in Thailand).

Spain came out of that challenge to its democratically elected government very well. We are all wondering what will happen if a similar challenge occurs to an elected government here that the RTA decides is bad for the country's health.

One must also here give full credit to King Juan Carlos who at a critical moment chose democracy over reactionary repression and a discredited military still influenced by the fascist Franco tradition.An act of real courage and moral integrity.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/458074-thai-govt-wont-be-overthrown-no-coup-military-commanders/page__p__4337973__hl__prayuth__fromsearch__1#entry4337973

<<< Soldiers interfering with campaigning were going to get charged with treason. so much for that promise, and there will be no coup... hahahaha

handing anti crime literature CRAP. they don't interfefere with other parties...

This requires an explanation. Do you mean to suggest that an anti-narcotics team going along it's legal business MUST be interfering with the PTP and that candidate who complained? How on earth did you get to the conclusion?

If we are considering "what on earth" questions.What on earth is the army doing in a anti narcotics exercise in an inland urban area?

The army has a role on the borders tracking drug smugglers etc (ahem, often comrades in arms it has to be said) but what lunacy has them involved within the country itself?

In the long term as Thailand (assuming it remains committed to democracy and the market system of economics) will become more like a normal country in which feudalists, the military, and corporate vested interests will have their wings clipped (or removed).Think Japan, South Korea.In that context the current elite is doomed.To be fair it could adapt and reform, and thus preserve its existence but it shows no signs of doing so.

Would that include large companies owned by PMs?

It would include all companies relying on monopolies,corruption and hostile to international competition.It would also include those companies and high net worth individuals avoiding tax.

Reminds me of the Thaksin quote "I'm not interested in democracy'. Mind you a personal slight on a member here and linking that to 'why the elite is doomed' doesn't sound real logical to me. Unless dear member lannarebirhth has indicated he's part of the Thai elite, or at least that part which you think is doomed. BTW which part would that be, even the elite in Thailand is spread over the political and colour spectrum

In the long term as Thailand (assuming it remains committed to democracy and the market system of economics) will become more like a normal country in which feudalists, the military, and corporate vested interests will have their wings clipped (or removed).Think Japan, South Korea.In that context the current elite is doomed.To be fair it could adapt and reform, and thus preserve its existence but it shows no signs of doing so.

If you didn't have your head so far up Thaksin's ass these many years you'd know I am a supporter of the vast majority of people who identify themselves as Red Shirts. It is Thaksin and his deplorable tactics i loathe.

You start off with an insult (actually a rather foolish one if you check my record) and add an irrelevant anecdote.Is that meant to be a response?

But unwittingly you also confirm my assertion.The Thai people have an awkward way of not fitting into foreigners' stereotypes and preconceived expectations, and this will shortly be demonstrated - I suspect rather dramatically.

They'll all probably get work as hod carriers in his latest vision for Thailand.

So you avoid the issues, and simply demonstrate a contempt for the Thai people.And that in a nutshell is why the elite is doomed.

Reminds me of Hitler's comment in the Berlin bunker as the Red Army approached, "The German people didn't deserve me"

Well we will soon find out if Bangkok shares your sense of outrage.If you are right any parties associated with redshirts will be decimated at the polls.if on the other hand PTP does rather well at the polls one will conclude that most Thais take a different view, and that your analysis is so much piffle.

I think you will find there are a whole host of issues that come into play when voters decide who to vote for, not only "do you agree with post number xxxx on Thaivisa by member rixalex".

You don't need to remind me that the Thai public is neither interested nor aware of what you, I or anyone else on this forum says.Actually the forum isn't really representative even of the expatriate community.That's not my point.

Leaving the forum views on one side for a moment, there has been a sustained propaganda campaign against the redshirts begiginning with the PAD's racist rhetoric, accusations that they only turn out for pay, they are stupid and uneducated, they are closet republicans etc etc and that the political party affiliated with them is corrupt, incompetent and simply a tool of Thaksin.

We will shortly find out what the Thai people think.It's all very well to say it's all very complicated understanding voter choice but against this the military cheerleaders will need to explain themselves, given their campaign of hatred and vitriol, if the Thai people shrug their shoulders and choose PTP nonetheless.

[quote name='rixalex' timestamp='1307787343' post=

The fact that the entire centre of the capital city was held completely to ransom for a number of weeks, with authorities increasingly looking nervy, unsure and indecisive, and with a blood bath likely to ensue any minute. The atmosphere for those of us living in Bangkok was nerve-jangling.

The blood bath did come, but not to the extent many, including myself, feared it would. Had it been worse, had the reds stayed to fight instead of torching and fleeing, had the PM been physically attacked, possibly killed, as seemed a possibility when his car was attacked... well, i'm not sure what would have happened, or whether it would have meant civil war, but it certainly wouldn't have been pretty.

Well we will soon find out if Bangkok shares your sense of outrage.If you are right any parties associated with redshirts will be decimated at the polls.if on the other hand PTP does rather well at the polls one will conclude that most Thais take a different view, and that your analysis is so much piffle.

Two soldiers doing anti drug questionnaires? You do not use the military to do any questionnaires like some high street MORI poll.

Why not? The Thai army are involved in policing the drug industry. Therefore, they are involved in anti-drug questionnaires.

Totally agree

I'm not sure about the army policing the drug industry, but traditionally the Thai army has been a very active participant in it.

If Thaksin vanished of the face of the earth tomorrow, there could be clear movement towards improving the life of the poor and the farmers, as Abhisit is already trying to do.

There are two issues here. Getting a better deal for the farmers and the poor, and getting Thaksin back into power. There isn't much opposition to getting a better deal for the farmers and poor (particularly on TV). The opposition is all based around Thaksin getting his crimes whitewashed and getting back into power.

Thaksin gave the farmers and poor a voice. They don't need him anymore, and they would get much more support without him. Without him, it would become a clear peoples movement, a la North Africa, but with him, it's just a fight between two groups of elite.

I tend to agree the rural majority don't need Thaksin any more.As you say he gave them a voice , and to that extent his role is completed.Whether the Democrats would have developed pro poor policies without Thaksin's catalytic influence is a matter for debate:I am seriously sceptical.The question for those who take your view is why the PTP is attracting so much support across classes and regions.I submit that the fixation with Thaksin has distracted attention from the far more important trend in Thai society, namely the dislike and boredom with the unelected elite that dominates the country.